It's probably way too early in the offseason to write this post, since there's still plenty of time for Bavasi to change the look of the active roster if he feels like it, but in the wake of all this recent pessimism I wanted to share my thoughts on the current 2007 Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners are better now than they were a year ago. The difference isn't huge, and I can't blame you if you don't see it, but it's there and it's real. The way I figure, at the most basic level, there are two ways to improve a roster:
(1) replace decent players with great ones
(2) replace awful players with decent ones
#1 is more sexy, and that's the one we were all looking forward to, but in certain situations #2 can be just as effective. Generally speaking, a ten-run improvement is a ten-run improvement, regardless of how you get it. Last season the Mariners gave 20% of their at bats to guys with OPS's under .700, and gave 165.2 innings to one of the worst ERA's in franchise history. They had black holes at DH, in center field, and at the back of the rotation, and now those holes have been patched up with players who don't look to be nearly as bad. It really is 'addition by subtraction,' if you want to look at it that way; the improvement isn't so much about the players we added as it is about the players we lost. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone on the current roster who promises to be as bad as Carl Everett, Jeremy Reed, or Joel Pineiro in a starting role.
If nothing else, this group of Mariners should be pretty steady. It's a team with few standouts and few glaring problems, with Cha Baek figuring to have the highest odds of total annihilation. With Everett, Reed and Pineiro, there were a bunch of reasons to expect a godawful season, but I don't see much of that on the current roster. The lineup is solid from top to bottom and while I don't expect anything extraordinary, the rotation shouldn't kill us. These guys are going to play a lot of close games, and they're going to win more of them than they did a year ago.
I was talking with Dave a few days ago, and he mentioned that after he plugged in a bunch of Bill James Handbook hitter projections, he got an ~800-run offense. That seems about right - it's a 40+ run improvement on last year, mostly thanks to Everett going away. Bear in mind that 800 runs in Safeco is something like 850-860 in a neutral ballpark. That's a good lineup. When Yuniesky Betancourt is the worst-hitting regular on the team, you know you're set up to score some runs.
So let's use '800 runs scored' as the expected offensive performance. Obviously there are error bars pointing in each direction, but since I'm not planning on submitting this to a scientific journal, we don't need to worry about that much detail. Now, in the past decade, the worst Pythagorean record to make the playoffs in the AL was 85-77. Using that W/L as the minimum that the Mariners need to target to have a shot at the playoffs, a team with an 800-run offense needs to have a 760-run pitching staff (at worst).
That sounds simple - 760 is a lot of runs - but last year's group allowed 792, and the talent level hasn't changed that much. Pineiro's gone, but so are Meche, Moyer, and Soriano (replaced by Baek, Batista, Ramirez, and Huber). It's going to be tough to make up 30-40 runs with this pitching staff.
Since the big change is in the rotation, let's look at the starters in isolation. In 2006 they allowed 562 runs in 958.1 innings, good for a 5.28 RA. Now let's look at this year's rotation. Assuming the same number of total innings, let's make some cocktail-napkin projections:
Felix: 190 IP, 4.00 RA
Washburn: 190 IP, 5.00
Batista: 190 IP, 5.25
Ramirez: 180 IP, 5.25
Baek: 150 IP, 5.35
Others: 58.2 IP, 5.75
Felix improves, Washburn stays the same, Batista and Ramirez remain steady but switch leagues, Baek gets exposed, and the other guys suck. Seems reasonably fair. Using these numbers, the rotation is 30 runs better than it was a year ago. Knock that down because of the worse bullpen and you're still at a ~20-run improvement in the pitching staff, or a Pythagorean 84-78 record. Just about where you need to be.
It seems like there's some room for improvement, too, but I'm not sure that there is. Moving from the NL to the AL is a substantial change, and while Batista and Ramirez are going to benefit from the park and the defense, I may have been too optimistic with those 5.25's. And a 5.35 RA for Baek puts him in Jon Lieber/Tim Hudson territory, which I'm not all that comfortable with. Consider this a 60th-percentile PECOTA projection, then, if you will. Slightly optimistic, but not out of the question or anything.
So there you go. If this team scores 800 runs and allows 770, it should win around 84 games. If it scores 770 and allows 800, it should win around 78. I'd lean closer to the former than the latter, myself. The talent is clearly there for a .500+ season, and who knows after that; get lucky in some one-run games and you could see the second week of October. It's unlikely, because an awful lot of things would have to go right for that to become a reality, but it's not like the division is particularly strong. One big injury to Vlad or Lackey and we could be right in the thick of things.
The biggest problem with the current Mariner roster, as I see it, isn't a lack of depth, but rather a lack of upside. There aren't many players seemingly poised to break out in a big way. I'm not talking about Jarrod Washburn lucking his way into another 3.20 ERA; that's just random chance, and it's impossible to predict. I'm talking about someone making a leap in performance, like (say) Justin Morneau did. Felix is obviously the top candidate, but who's behind him? Lopez's power disappeared, and while he has a shot at a breakout, the odds are pretty slim. Betancourt doesn't have the swing. I'm done thinking that Beltre's ever going to repeat his 2004. Jones is blocked. Snelling could, but he'll only get that chance if someone else has already sucked for a while. Neither Ramirez nor Baek have the stuff. The #2 candidate is probably Jose Guillen. (For those of you saying that Sexson's due to bounce back: you're right, he is, but that'll probably be negated by a drop in Ibanez's production.)
If the Mariners want to depend on something other than good luck to make a playoff push, their best bet is relying on Felix and Guillen to elevate their games from the level that's expected. If they can squeeze Lopez in there too, then you're looking at a dangerous team capable of winning 90+ games and contending for the division. It's a long shot, and an injury to any number of irreplaceable regulars socks that dream right in the kisser, but there's still a chance. It's been a disappointing winter so far, but don't kid yourself into thinking that Bavasi has destroyed the roster. He hasn't. The Mariners have gotten a little better, Oakland hasn't, and sometimes entering the season with an average roster can work out better than you thought it would.
0 recs | 38 comments
Not that I doubt your veracity...
..or the numbers that you ran, but:The talent is clearly there for a .500+ season, and who knows after that; get lucky in some one-run games and you could see the second week of October.
Isn't this almost exactly what most people said about the 2006 Mariners? I hope you're right, I really do, but...sigh.
One big injury to Vlad or Lackey and we could be right in the thick of things.
Provided the M's avoid injuries, as well.
pdb - December 13, 2006
Re: Not that I doubt your veracity...
Yeah, it is. But where the 2006 Mariners entered the season with huge question marks in Everett, Reed, and Pineiro, I don't see those on the current roster. Those three guys were almost unthinkably bad, and the team still won 78 games.And also, yeah, as mentioned towards the end there are certain injuries that would cripple our season. We should be able to survive DL stints by four of our five starters and any of our 1B/DH/corner OF types, though, for whatever that's worth.
Jeff Sullivan - December 13, 2006
True enough
and I do like how the rest of the West is gradually weakening itself. I don't have the give-up-in-December feeling that some people have gotten in the last couple weeks, but let's just say my expectations for the 2007 Mariners can easily be exceeded if they play well.pdb - December 13, 2006
What was it Einstien said
About doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results?Wee Willie still gets too many at bats...
If there is a disabled list stint by Sexson, Ibanez, Ichiro, or at catcher....the offense drops drastically and if it happens at two positions...uh oh!
An injury or two involving the pitching staff and we have total meltdown...
With Hargrove pulling the strings in game decisions will remain the same and we will be hamstrung there too....
I would like to be optimistic but past performance more often than not dictates future behavior.
On the plus side, Ichiro probably won't phone it in this year and will have a career year, looking to cash in ala Beltre, in free agency. And, with Bavasi being on another team next year, he'll over pay Ichiro like he did Sexson and Beltre....the nice thing is, we might be able to trade him some magic beans for real talent.
Apathy...it is not just for Huskie fans any more...
Dollar97 - December 13, 2006
Considering
the fact that his best two years were the ones at the start of a contract (2001 & 2004) i don't think that Ichiro is the type of individual that would have a contract year out of desire to cash in, he seems to be motivated more by pride than anything else. He's got more money than god waiting for him back in Japan. And I personally think that Ichiro isn't going anywhere except possibly back to Japan, I just think that Ichiro is a perfect personification of Japanese culture and it would be without honor to leave with the job being undone.Robert - December 13, 2006
I would like to think you are correct
But I also believe he would like a ring, like all true competitors. Lets face it, if you aren't the lead dog, the view sucks and the M's are not the lead dogs...Dollar97 - December 13, 2006
Yeah
I understand the whole "Ring" argument, but where could he go that he would have a significant enough upgrade to win a championship that is enough of a fit for him. Its becoming pretty clear that he doesn't like sitting in anybody else's shadow and any team that offered him a chance to win he would have to play second fiddle on.I don't know maybe I'm being naive as a fan, but when I see the amount of Japanese tourists that pass through the turnstiles at Safeco on a daily basis along with the fact that Yamauchi said that "the day Ichiro signed was the happiest day of his life", I just can't see him ever leaving for another MLB team . Back to Japan is another story.
Robert - December 13, 2006
He already has a ring
He won one in Japan in '96.Mariner John - December 13, 2006
He's married
so hes got two rings :)Scruffy Lefty - December 13, 2006
I agree
Ichiro signed the $11 mil deal, which was to say the least rather reasonable.He didn't come to the U.S. for money, but for the challenge of playing against the best in the world.
Most Japanese players don't really care much about the money, more about the pride.
He's one of the last players that will move based on the money.
If he moves, it is either because Seattle's offer is insulting, or because he just sees no future in the team.
MT - December 13, 2006
Not that I know how to do the math,
but I feel much better about our O this year. With Beltre in the two hole he will see more fast balls. I would never argue he will be a .330, 40hr guy, but maybe a .285, 25-30 guy, which I think is pretty solid.Yu-bet, will improve, no power, but still have a solid .290-.310 year with lots of doubles, and no walks.
I would put money down that Lopez will get his power numbers up again, it seemed there was some strange stuff going on with him.
Johjima, could break out. He can hit and hit it hard.
Sexson will be Sexson, he will strike out or go yard, but whatever.
Guille could be solid.
If Ibanez goes back to his 05 numbers he is still above Ave.
the pitching scares me.
InSpokane - December 13, 2006
Going forward
Beltre, Sexson, and Guillen not all sucking horribly at the same time (like Beltre, Sexson, and Everett last season) will go a long way to helping this club.Felix not royally sucking for the first quarter of the season will go a long way to helping this club.
Having a starting rotation where it's far less likely that management sticks with the same five guys through thick and thin no matter what will go a long way to err....not dramatically hurt this club.
Having Ichiro in center for the whole season with decent corner outfielders....
Willie ballgame doing more bench work than platooning....
The lackluster offseaons does not deny me the possibility of enjoying this team in 2007. Throw in the idea that Hargrove is probably going to have to be more active than ever....I'll be watching. If nothing else, I'll be thouroughly entertained.
ThundaPC - December 13, 2006
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?
Scruffy Lefty - December 13, 2006
Please oh please
someone photoshop WFB, Hargrove, or Bavasi....ok just someone associated with this team into his left hand. Please.Christian - December 13, 2006
give me a minute
Scruffy Lefty - December 13, 2006
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?
Scruffy Lefty - December 13, 2006
<3
Thank you.Christian - December 13, 2006
Starting pitchers
I have a fear, and it is one that I believe is not out of proportion. Namely, whichever five people are the starters out of spring training, Hargrove will treat them as though they should be the designated starters no matter how badly they pitch.That's his routine: the starters get the time and there's not a lot of room in his head to conceive of an heretical notion like "spot start" when a pitcher is ineffective or just tired.
I believe that the Mariners, last year, with the same team, would have been a +.500 team with just a normally flexible manager.
Celadus - December 13, 2006
The thing that gives me hope is
That if this team does just as well against the rest of the league as '06, but manages to go 10-9 against Oakland, we're an 86-win team and in the postseason hunt. With a slight improvement by us and a slight decline by Oakland, maybe that's a possibility.JordanB - December 13, 2006
Jeff, could you expand on this statement?
"The Mariners have gotten a little better, Oakland hasn't, and sometimes entering the season with an average roster can work out better than you thought it would."I agree with it, but I'm not sure what angle you were taking on it. Are there examples of other teams that resemble the M's that caused you to suggest this?
I think a distinction needs to made when we look into the future. The dividing line is between postseason and regular season.
This team could not win a playoff series unless Felix started 4 times.
This team is average enough to hang in there for the regular season to compete.
No?
eknpdx - December 13, 2006
Oh, yeah.
What I was getting at is that teams like the '06 Tigers or '05 White Sox can look decent in April and then keep playing far longer than anyone expected. Average is only a little good luck away from good.This team is horribly set up for the playoffs, but it can compete in the regular season. And that's a step up from what we've seen in the past three years.
Jeff Sullivan - December 13, 2006
A good clear-headed analysis
Jeff...this is really refreshing after all the gloom-and-doom we've been posting and reading over the last week or two. I agree that this team may be better than last year's. It's just that we all came into the offseason with expectations that were probably exceedingly high. And Bill Bavasi wasn't able to live up to them.I would add one variable to the mix...what about the performance of Mike Hargrove? We can talk all we want about this player turning things around or that player getting closer to his potential. But will Mike Hargrove have a good year putting together lineups and keeping the team together when things get rough? Or does it even matter?
By the way, if I'm Bavasi, I'm probably out bargain basement shopping for the rest of the offseason. I think there's still a need for a bench bat, a setup guy in the bullpen (to replace Soriano and share that duty with Huber) and a backup catcher who can hit some.
Thanks, Jeff, for bringing a little rationality to the angst that we're feeling.
spokane dude - December 13, 2006
Devils advocate
I like your analysis Jeff.I think that most of the things you mentioned were pretty reasonable.
The main thing that I would argue with are the sumation of reasonable projections of each player to arrive at a given number of wins.
I agree that the M's don't have a whole lot of players with breakout potential, with Felix, Guillen, and Lopez the most likely candidates. But there is a flip side to that coin. I think the M's have a very high potential of meltdown at several positions.
I just wanted to play the devil's advocate for a second, and list several of the things that could really throw a wrench into your math:
-Horacio Ramirez and Miguel Batista are both switching leagues. There is good bust potential with both, with the odds of Ramirez matching up nicely with Pineiro being pretty high.
-Ramirez has been unable to pitch more than 80 innings in two the past four years. The M's don't have any depth to replace him. If he goes down, the M's will likely end up with both Baek AND Woods in the rotation at once.
-The bullpen is a good bet to not be nearly as good as it was last year. The bullpen has been weakened by the loss of Soriano, who was our best setup reliever. But beyond that obvious downgrade, the M's entire bullpen overachieved last year. Huber, Woods, Lowe, Putz, and O'Flaherty all pitched very well. Lowe isn't going to be a factor for at least the beginning of the season, and Putz is the only guy in the pen that I would say is a good bet to continue his success. And Fruto is the only guy that I could see being much better next year. Really, everything clicked for the pen in 2006. Even without losing Lowe and Soriano, they weren't likely to match that performance.
-All of your numbers were based on the assumption that the M's continue to have great luck with health. Last year, the only regular guy we lost to injury was Reed, and that ended up representing an upgrade. That type of luck is exceedingly rare, and the M's would be wise to expect a few regulars to end up on the DL for at least a while. This is where the M's lack of talent in AAA is going to bite them in the ass. Besides Adam Jones, I can't see one other good player who could fill in if the need arises. Unfortunately, he plays the same position as our most durable player. A lot depends on what happens with Snelling. If he is on the bench, the corner OF positions should be OK. Broussard can fill in at 1B, but who is the DH then? The club is looking at a serious downgrade if they lose a starter at SS, 3B, 2B, C, or any pitcher. Really, the M's have been real lucky the past two years with injuries. I don't think that it likley to continue.
-the bust factor for the starting rotation is HUGE. Even if we assume that the M's don't have a starter go down with injury, I don't think that we can assume that Baek and Woods will be any better than Piniero. If the M's don't add another starter, we could easily see a revolving door of sucktitude for a good part of the season. Baek and Woods are both bad pitchers. The only guy we have waiting in the wings who is anything resembling a long-term option is Feierabend, but he really needs a full year in AAA. Ideally, he gets called up in September so the M's can decide whether or not he is an option for 2008. But, with Baek and Woods as the #5 starters, he could get rushed. If the M's are going to be in contention past July, they are going to need someone like Baek, Woods, Foppert, Blackley, or Feierabend to not only be decent, but to emerge as above average ML starters. That is a lot to ask of that group. We just don't have a guy like Brandon McCarthy or Jarrod Weaver to throw in there late in the year.
-the rest of the AL West is better. The fact that the M's were in contention until mid-summer has much more to do with the other clubs underperforming than anything else. The A's were gutted by injuries. They lost Thomas and Zito, but they are very unlikely to get similar lack of production from guys like Eric Chavez,
Bobby Crosby, Milton Bradley, Mark Kotsay, Rich Harden, and Esteban Loaiza. Just like the M's are not likely to continue to have great luck with injuries, the A's are nearly a lock to not get hosed like they did last year. The best team in the West are the Angels. IMO, they are a 90-win club right now, and out of our division rivals, they are the most likely to do something bold between now and spring.
Things could work out a lot better than the disaster scenarios I just outlined. Obviously, not all of these things are going to happen. But if more than one of those things above goes down like I just described, the M's are looking at 4th straight last place finish.
Finally, I have one question for you guys: if you had to bet (a substantial amount of) money on who finishes last in the AL West in 2007, who would you bet on?
Jerry - December 13, 2006
My bet
would be on the Mariners with maybe a second thought about the Rangers.Scruffy Lefty - December 13, 2006
Re: Devils advocate
There's definitely a downside to the roster. I mentioned the injury possibility towards the end, and we could also see someone else fall off the map unexpectedly. That's not unheard of. If one of those things happens to a critical player, we're in a world of hurt.That said, I'm not too concerned about injuries because the only truly crippling DL stints would have to be by our most durable players. Felix and Johjima are clearly moderate risks, and there's no way around it, but Ichiro/Betancourt/Lopez/Beltre are young, healthy, and reliable, and aren't likely to miss much time between them. It's like saying, "sure, but St. Louis would struggle if Pujols got hurt." It's true, but that's not something you can plan on, and there are only two teams in the league who can afford to pay for depth at every position.
As far as Ramirez or Baek busting, I think you underestimate just how historically terrible Joel Pineiro was last year. The potential for anyone on the staff to equal his awfulness is incredibly low. I don't think having one of the non-Felix starters implode is a death knell, anyway, since they could be approximated by someone like Lehr, Blackley, and possibly Feierabend or Campillo if he gets re-signed. The difference wouldn't be that huge. Obviously it would make us worse, but not significantly so - maybe a win, or two if the replacement totally sucks. Clearly we need to scrounge for all the wins we can get, but nobody should be too mortified if Horacio Ramirez tears his labrum and goes on the shelf. That's not going to make or break our season.
Right now I think the Mariners finish last. Of the four rosters in the division, they have the worst, and therefore the lowest chance of coming out on top at the end. But the chance itself exists, and it's higher than a lot of people have given it credit for.
Jeff Sullivan - December 13, 2006
I forgot to mention
last year's bullpen had a 4.24 RA, which is basically middle-of-the-pack when you account for the park. They're going to be worse this year, and we'll see more late leads blown, but it isn't going to suck. And who knows, maybe Fruto or O'Flaherty takes a big step forward and becomes a valuable asset. If the Mariners have taught us anything over the past few years, it's that they're pretty good at finding effective relievers (insert necessary Mateo-related caveat).Jeff Sullivan - December 13, 2006
Emiliano Fruto 2007 =
Julio Mateo 2003.Not a lock, but I could see it happening.
It's just not that hard to staff a bullpen.
eponymous coward - December 13, 2006
Performance of Hargrove?
How about the termination of Hargrove? :)worley - December 13, 2006
That was basically my argument...
a couple of weeks ago.Mind you, I was being more optimistic about Schmidt, but everything else still stands pretty well.
This isn't the "OH NOES" everyone was groaning about when the Soriano/Ramirez deal went down.
The problem is if Ichiro, Beltre or King Felix go down... ugh. We're toast.
eponymous coward - December 13, 2006
Hmmm
I think the Hargrove adjustment factor has got to be in the realm of -3 games.Graham MacAree - December 13, 2006
I agree....
He will cost the M's three to five games by not changing the lineup timely, sticking with someone longer than needed, and playing Willie more than he should....I see him as -17 in the run department over the course of the year due to his in game management and his love for Willie...Dollar97 - December 13, 2006
DH/1B/LF
It seems like the only sorta unresolved issue is DH/1B/LF.The Sexson rumors seem to have died rather quickly. I wonder if that option is still something the M's are considering. I hope so, but my guess would be no.
So, the main unresolved issue is what happens with Ibanez/Broussard/Snelling.
If the M's do decide to move Broussard, I don't see them going into 2007 with Snelling as the starter and no Plan B. The M's have been linked to Cliff Floyd, and I wouldn't be suprised to see them pick him up and move him to DH. But you could make a good argument that Broussard would be just as good as Floyd for less money.
I am sorta agnostic on this one. The moves I think make sense are unlikely considering the M's recent moves and past history.
I was really hoping that the M's would do something bold, like trade Sexson, shift Ibanez to 1B, bring in another DH, and put Snelling in LF. But that doesn't seem likely.
Regardless of what happens, I can't see the M's getting much more than league average production out of the DH spot. They are a near lock to get better production than 2006, but none too impress relative to the rest of the league.
I miss Edgar.
Jerry - December 13, 2006
Compared to last year, though...
we're talking going from something like .220/.290/.390 to .270/.330/.450.That's a HUGE difference.
eponymous coward - December 13, 2006
Can you imagine the difference if Edgar was in
this lineup?Even the 40 year old version would be huge addition in the middle of the lineup.(294/.406/.485)
Goose - December 13, 2006
this is what I've been trying to say
for a few days now. Its a better team than last year, absolutely. Its a good deal better offensively, and its better defensively. The Bullpen in roughly the same, maybe a bit worse becuase relievers fluctuate more. The starters a re about the same, in my mind, but the major difference with the rotation is DEPTH. We had none whatsoever last year, and now we have several guys who could spot-start in April and maybe half a dozen come July.I'm not looking for them to dominate the league by any means, but I doubt they will lose 15 consecutive games to Oakland either. I know, Johjima gets injured and we're screwed. Or Ichiro gets injured and were screwed. But the same goes for every other team in the division, as Jeff said. Angels without Vlad or Lackey is a pretty mediocre team. Rangers without Millwood are also pretty mediocre. Actually, Rangers with millwood are mediocre.
I think we're in for a lively season.
Bearskin Rugburn - December 13, 2006
The Raul Factor...
(For those of you saying that Sexson's due to bounce back: you're right, he is, but that'll probably be negated by a drop in Ibanez's production.)I don't think you can state this enough. If Sexson's still around (which is darn near definite), he'll probably have a slightly better season than he did last year. However, The M's success really hinges on which keystroke is formed by the graph between Sexson's bounce-back and Ibanez's sustainability.
Here's some notes on this:
Keystroke | Sexson | Ibanez | Overall
-------------------------------------
"" | Up | Down | Neutral
-------------------------------------
"/" | Down | Up | Neutral
-------------------------------------
"L" | Up | Neutral | Positive
-------------------------------------
"7" | Neutral | Down | Negative
-------------------------------------
"U" | Up | Up | Hugely Positive
-------------------------------------
"n" | Down | Down | Hugely Negative
-------------------------------------
"-" | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral
-------------------------------------
"F" | Down | Neutral | Negative
-------------------------------------
Personally, I see the strongest possibility somewhere between {F,7,-,n,} (in that order). It would take an L or U for the M's to have any sort of chance of the playoffs.
Personally, I'm hoping there's at least 9 U's in RAUUUUUUUUUUUL next year.
PositivePaul - December 13, 2006
Too hasty to push "post"
But, really, one other thing that could counterbalance Ibanez' potential decline, (and you scoff at this in your post) and that's a nice boost outta Beltre -- like, say 45-50 doubles and 30-35 HRs. I don't believe that's too far out of the question -- especially with the doubles.Beltre, to me, is the hinge player I'll be looking at for 2007. That, of course, combined with the potential decline of Ibanez and Sexson.
PositivePaul - December 13, 2006
But there is a number
of players who can be expected to put up better offensive numbers. Lopez, Joh, Sexson, Beltre, Snelling, Broussard all had good seasons last year, but not as good as they maybe ought to have. Also, one thing noone has really brought up is that the bench is much better this year, in spite of Willie's extension. You know, I just typed that and realized that it can be read several ways...Hargrove's Willie gets extension...
Bearskin Rugburn - December 13, 2006
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