My only solace is that there is a chance, albeit small, that Snelling gets injured/becomes a bodhisattva/has a sex change and stops playing, while Vidro finds some kind of legal/untestable nutritional supplement that allows him to produce at or near normal DH levels.
In which case Bavasi is brilliant.
But I wouldn't bet on it.
Weeeeell ok, I'll bet a buck, cause I like to think positive.
"Jose is a professional hitter," Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. "We feel we can add him to our batting order anywhere from the second to the sixth spot and he will add production to our lineup. With the addition of Vidro and Jose Guillen to our returning players, I think we are a much stronger offensive team."
And Hank Aaron was a 21-time all star. I bet he'd have a better Age 72 season than Vidro would an Age 32 season. Probably would run better, too. And play second base better.
I'm excited to add his bat to our lineup," Mariners manager Mike Hargrove said. "One of the problems we had last season was that we didn't keep enough innings going. Adding a hitter like Jose, who makes contact and hits with runners on base, will help our offense."
Is to get as many players named Jose as possible in the lineup at once. We are at 3 right now, but I think we can get at least a couple more for the bullpen...Jose Mesa...Jose Paniagua?
I have no idea what the Mariners were thinking. None. I had to take two ibuprofen tablets after I learned about the deal so that I could write this analysis.
Jose Vidro is an old 33: His knees are shot, he can't play the field anymore, and his power is gone. He'll be one of the worst designated hitters in the American League, and he just bumped a superior hitter, Ben Broussard, out of that role. Yes, Chris Snelling is a Man of Glass, and he's out of options, but he has actual ability and is still just 25 years old. Yes, Emiliano Fruto has below-average control, but he's 22, has a plus fastball and solid-average change, and has less than a year of major league service. And to make this even more ridiculous, the Mariners apparently are going to pick up Vidro's option for 2009 -- by which point he'll need a walker to get to first base without help from two teammates.
It's one thing to get worse by attrition, as your best players leave due to free agency or retirement. It's another to get worse as part of your core strategy, giving away talented young players in exchange for oft-injured mediocrities, just making things that much harder for your successor in the GM chair.
that I'd be surprised if anyone has a problem with Christina Kahrl saying what a godawful, retarded, stupid transaction this is. Though I forget if she's doing trade analysis over the winter anyway.
Huh, I had completely forgotten about him.
I can visualize Jack Perconte, Bruce Bochte, Spike Owen, Julio Cruz, and The Inspector - but Al Cowens had faded from memory.
I fully expect Ms. Kahrl to gush on Bavasi's genius this time around. I mean, heck, she's always going to take the non-sensical alternative viewpoint with the M's.
Either that or she just spontaneously combusted from excessive laughter, and mocking "I Told You SO!"'s.
The Nationals and Orioles are going to have an exhibition game at Harbor Park in Norfolk, Va. Got it in an email today. If you live on the East Coast or are visiting the area I would recommend going. I will be there with my "Go Doyle" sign.
"The Norfolk Tides have announced that Harbor Park will host its first-ever Major League Exhibition game on Friday, March 30. The game is scheduled to begin at 2:00 pm, and will feature the Baltimore Orioles against the Washington Nationals. Ticket prices for the exhibition game will be announced at a future date."
I did hear back from the Mariners and it turns out that my season ticket deposit is refundable until Jan 22. I'm giving myself a week or two to cool off from the insanity of the offseason moves, but still very much plan to get my money back for 2007.
...that something HAS to be up. Bavasi MUST have known is was an incredibly horrific trade. He must have. Absolutely must have. Is he a mediocre-to-poor GM? Sure, but to be any GM at all you must have at least a slight amount of sense, which would make this trade obviously bad.
My theory:
-Bavasi, in wanting Jose Guillen so badly to be a Mariner (as THAT was a very sensible signing with good upside), sealed the deal by promising Guillen that he would bring in his best friend as well -- Jose Vidro. When it came time to talk to the Nats about Vidro, the Nats sensed a position of poor leverage and fleeced Bavasi accordingly -- because to break a promise with Guillen would mean his primary offensive acquisition would all of the sudden become a clubhouse-rotting shit storm.
By assuming that Jose Guillen wouldn't have come to Seattle without Vidro, I'm rationalizing the trade by saying we got Vidro AND Guillen for Snelling and Fruto. Slightly less bad.
And this also shifts the GM screwup from being a comically bad talent evaluation to an error in negotiating tactics, which I believe is more believable and inline with Bavasi's mediocrity.
He viewed Fruto as very expendable because of the depth we had with relievers. He probably thought of the trade as basically Vidro for Snelling. In his mind, Vidro is probably a better hitter. He is proven in the majors. I think the biggest deciding factor is that Bavasi needs to win now. Vidro may be a slightly better DH than Snelling next year (very debatable - maybe more dependable is better). If he doesn't win now, he is likely out of baseball for many years.
Snelling has a lot of potential but is always hurt. The other reason this trade could have happened is because Bavasi is such a kind soul and wanted to see Snelling play OF somewhere every day.
Snelling hit .250 last season and struck out a bunch, Fruto really struggled with control and limiting runs, and this org is notorious for judging players from on field performance. Bavasi probably saw Snelling and Fruto as a small price to pay for getting a guy who has hit over several seasons.
There's no way Bavasi could think that Vidro is more reliable. He's missed 165 games the past three years and his knees are knowingly shot.
All I have to say is that if our GM is so bad, how did we get such a great deal on Guillen? It was almost too good, and the Vidro is way too bad. It can't be a coincidence that Vidro and Guillen are best friends -- the deals must have been related somehow.
I'm not sure which angle I want to take to disagree with you on this one.
First, the contract Soriano got was absurd. If we used contract size to determine player value then we would conclude Meche is one of the top starting pitchers in MLB.
His arm was injured. His arm may be one of his biggest assets. We don't really know how much this will effect him. Hopefully very little. I'm expecting about 100 OPS+ or basically him to give us league average production. I also think there is probably a +/- if 10 on that. Basically an OPS of something around .800 would be nice and I would be happy.
Guillen isn't that amazing of a player. His numbers make it look like he's declining. Its difficult to tell what kind of production we can expect because he was injured last year. If you look at his numbers, he had an amazing 2003 and then good years for 2004 and 2005.
Its also more likely that Guillen will get 17 mil over two years. This isn't bad as long as he plays well.
What I'm trying to say is that its nice that its a short deal but it will only be a good deal if Guillen is healthy and plays well. He took a discount because these are not guaranteed.
I guess I'm a little happier with the move than I put off. I guess I'm just depressed about our offseason in general and wish none of it would have happened.
The M's need a true #2 hitter (bat control) and Vidro is the closest thing out there to plug into the 2 slot. If Beltre continues to hit the way he did in the second half last year, he'll be our #3. Then Ibanez at 4 and Sexson at 5 and Johjima/Guillen/Lopez/Betancourt make up a pretty decent back half of the lineup.
Our organization may be "notorious" for judging prospects by their "on-field" performance, but bloggers are notorious for overvaluing prospects. It's natural really... we've watched such a crappy MLB product, that we can't help but look at the farm for hope and heros. But that makes us suckers when it comes to overvaluing our homegrown talent. Put another way, Felix isn't the second coming of Dwight Gooden. Felix is looking like the next Bartolo Colon (which still makes him a fine pitcher.) Snelling isn't the second coming of Edgar Martinez. He'll be lucky to put up the career numbers of Carmelo Martinez. How many "can't miss" prospects do you have to watch flame out before you start to realize that only a special few lucky and determined souls actually cash in on their potential. Vidro has already proven something, and that makes him more valuable than a prospect that you think will eventually be a better player. Bavasi realizes that. And, like a few people have noted... he's got to make some moves to save his bacon. Fans and ownership want a 500+ season next year, not a rebuilding year with an eye toward 2009.
I think it's not, but let's grant the premise so I can say this:
You say "Fans and ownership want a 500+ season next year, not a rebuilding year with an eye toward 2009".
This is true, but how exactly are the likes of Jose Vidro going to get the M's to be a .500 team next year?
We had a younger, more productive, and far, far cheaper way to help the M's get to .500 in-house, and Bavasi traded him away for Jose Vidro. This doesn't sound like a team that wants to get above .500 any time soon.
that Vidro will out-preform Snelling next year. Even though Prospectus (or somebody else out there, I forget exactly who) is predicting otherwise, I'd call that one even-money. You can laugh at me once next season is over... but right now I'd bet a six-pack that Vidro will be more productive than Snelling in 2007.
was watching Snelling (and don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Doyle) strike out a ton last year. He's patient and he swings hard at good pitches, but he misses too often right now. Last year's decent numbers were all based on his first couple weeks. After that, he felt like a major hole in the lineup. I think his approach is great though, and I hope he does turn into the second coming of Edgar... but he's not doing it yet. If Beltre would take Doyle's approach, he might go back to his .320 average with 40+ HRs and 50+ doubles.
And then, with Snelling, there's the whole injury thing. I know Veege gets hurt too, but Doyle's had a series of major injuries that set him back year after year. He was turning into our very own Griffey in Cincy story.
is trading Snelling. That by itself is stupid (even if you think Vidro's better for '07, what about '08 and '09? And for several million more dollars?), but going out of your way to target Vidro to DH speaks to an incredible lack of fundamental evaluation skills.
I tend to think that whether you overvalue prospects or undervalue veterans, the issue is moot in this instance.
Jose Vidro is obviously not worth trading two prospects for the luxury of taking on his contract for a spot in the batting order that could be easily replaced by any number of AAA hitters. Heck I'd take Adam Jones over Vidro for the DH spot. Even if he whiffs on everything at least I know he's gaining some experience, whereas a 33 yr. old station-to-station slap-ball DH is highly unlikely to suddenly emerge as the second coming of Edgar or Julio Franco.
The fact that we threw in Fruto as well just makes this trade even MORE puzzling. I don't see how trading two potentially useful pieces of the organization improves the club when the return is mediocre at best.
In terms of Vidro proving anything ... are we talking about the Vidro of recent times or the Vidro of Expo years? I mean back then Bret Boone was doing pretty well and Joel Pineiro wasn't such a bust. I don't think your comparison works when it's taking the best years of a veteran and comparing them to some random potential "flaming out" of a prospect.
"Heck I'd take Adam Jones over Vidro for the DH spot. Even if he whiffs on everything at least I know he's gaining some experience."
Bavasi is not interested in watching Adam Jones get his experience by striking out 160 times while wearing an M's uniform next year. It might be a good strategy for the M's long term. But right now, Bill has to try to get the team to .500 to save his job.
I hate it as much as y'all, but right now the M's are striving desperately for credibility/mediocrity. All the armchair GMs out there think we're a laughing stock for dumping talented youth, but the casual fan will show up for a 500+ team.
While many stars started from Day One as a star, many, many more struggled their first year or two. Like, um, Edgar Martinez.
We've seen this before...a LOT. With MANY other teams THis striving simply doesn't get you credibility or mediocrity--it just gets you that many more years of bad baseball.
Airchair GMs who ignore history and think these are good moves are like the suckers who bet on roulette in Vegas---they think they're beating the system, but they're just getting fleeced by the house.
I understand that Bavasi wants to save his job but once again this doesn't make sense for Bavasi to do this because all it did was make his job harder if he keeps it.
Low strikeouts, went the other way very well, bunted well, hit for a high average, hit for occasional power. Good production from the 2B position. The only knock against him is the OBP. I personally think he could easily increase it to the .330-.350 level this year, especially if he increases his power and gets pitched around a bit more.
You're right in saying that Snelling is no "can't miss" prospect, but you've got to admit that Vidro is no "can't miss" veteran. To me, the best case scenario with Vidro is that he stays healthy and hits like Lopez, but with a higher OBP. Okay, great, but we already had that hitter, minus the low K rate, in Snelling. And he was able to play the field, and he was cheap, and he was young, and he didn't cost us a live arm. If you assume every rookie is going to fail, you'll end up with the 2004 M's. I don't think anyone's arguing that we shouldn't try to contend, I think a lot of people believe Snelling will out-hit Vidro in 2007. Which means that we paid millions of dollars and Emiliano Fruto to lose production.
And anyway, I don't think the M's need a #2 hitter at all. I think they need a #3 hitter and a #1 pitcher, the same things they've needed for four years.
Beltre was supposed to move into that #3 spot but that experiment has obviously failed to date. And to contend we don't need a #1 arm. We need a #1 arm AND a #2 arm; we need to preserve what remains of the bullpen by not trading all the pieces for our 10,000th #5 arm [and/or Bloomquist clones that can't actually handle baserunning duties]; and we need to conserve, rather than blow millions of dollars.
And if the FO plans to blow the money, please at least do so on a Matsuzaka rather than picking up a ragtag collection of expensive #5 pitchers, declining DHs, and utility outfielders. Please.
I've spent the majority of my degree at an elite university developing a projection system that's designed to rival PECOTA, and the first person to call me an expert in any sense of the word (including me, hey) is a someone named "evan" with the apparent mental ability of a decapitated goldfish.
reality to assume that Snelling will be a more productive hitter than Vidro next year. Vidro has for sure been on a downward trend, and I agree that as a DH, the trade doesn't make a ton of sense, but I doubt that Snelling would have been trotted out there to take the spot if nothing had been done. Bavasi wanted another slugger, saw the price, and decided to upgrade elsewhere. We need a good #2 hitter, and Vidro most likely will out-perform Snelling in that capicity next year. He fits the batting order, as it stands, a little better, and makes contact... Chris hasn't proved to be a contact hitter in the bigs, yet, and that's a hell of a gamble to take, given the injury history, if you are Bavasi. His value is as a # 4 OF, not a starter, and as such, I don't find him to be any kind of un-touchable.
Vidro outperforms Snelling. If he does, it won't be by much. Snelling isn't as great as we all think (or at least he isn't that great yet). Snelling has proven very little at the highest level and no matter how much he hits in the minors, how great his eye is, or how pretty his swing is, he's still just a prospect.
This trade was bad. I hate Bavasi. I want Snelling back. I hate Bavasi (I know I already said that but it bears repeating). Vidro may do better than Snelling next year. All these things can go together.
My big problems with the trade:
The difference between the two is very small.
Snelling has more upside than Vidro.
Vidro costs much more than Snelling.
Snelling is much more likely to perform better over the next three years.
Snelling can play decent defense. Vidro can't.
Vidro is old and chubby.
Snelling is cool.
We had to give up Fruto too.
I am not sure why Snelling would be considered a better gamble. I think that the assumption being made here is that he would A) start, and B) hit in the #2 spot. Neither would likely happen. Your Junior GM job, (goose) is to make this team win next year, and to keep a hold of the core couple of prospects, for the next couple of years. That mandate makes Snelling a chip. It also makes Soriano a chip, and I think that those two shoud have been packaged for something a little bit more shiney. But they weren't, and the assumption that (at least) Snelling, should have garnered more, is unrealistic. He is well past the highly regarded prospect timeline, in his career. I don't know this, but would bet that other GM's see him the same way.
for the Mariners, Ben Brouusard would be. And he's also a very good gamble to outperform Vidro in 2007.
You say my job would be to make this team win next year. Fine. Then to do that I'm going with the best players possible. Chris Snelling is already better than Jose Vidro. Ben Brouusard, who Hargrove would likely start over Snelling if we kept him, is already better than Jose Vidro.
Jose Vidro is going to hurt the teams chances to win next year, more than Snelling or Brouusard. Therefor he's going to hurt my chances of keeping my job.
no, he won't, this club gets better, right away, with a productive #2 hitter, which neither Broussard, nor Snelling, is, right now. In no way, would anyone who gets paid for their opinion, consider Snelling to the better player right now. Better future? Only maybe, but present? Not even. A couple hundred big league at bats, punctuated by what, a 30-40% SO rate, vs. Vidros' career line? Nope.
to justify saying he will perform well next year. I'll concede that the last couple years he was injured but you can't ignore the last couple years. He has been a pretty average hitter the last couple years. He's getting old and he can't stay healthy.
I don't think there is any way you can argue that a platoon of Broussard/Morse would give us less production out of the DH position. If you don't like Morse then replace him with any righty who hits LHP. This would cost less and not require us to ship off Snelling and Fruto. Wasn't there anyone in the FO who thought about this deal before they signed off on it.
Because he's not the same player that he was a few years ago. That much, is obvious to everyone.
I'm not saying Brouusard would be be a productive #2 hitter.He's more like a #6 hitter. But regardless of were he hits, he's still a better hitter than Vidro, even if he's not platooned. And it's not that hard to find a platoon partner for him if one decides to go that route. Much easier than paying for the money and talent that Vidro costs.
Also, Snelling put up a better line than Vidro in 2006. Yes, it's in a 4th of the at bats, but it's still there.
Snelling's SO rate in 2006 is more than likely not a trend. He's never even came close to striking out like that in his professional career before. The chances of him all of a sudden becoming Richie Sexson in terms of strikeouts is not good at all.
Despite his bad September, Snelling STILL put up a .110 ISOP(isolated patience). That's pretty damn impressive if you ask me. It's obvious his ability to get on base is still there.
Not only has Vidro's power dropped continually over the past 4 years, but so has his ability to get on base. His ISOB has gone from .087 in 2003, to .073,.064, to .059.
Broussard taking over the spot would require a platoon player, and at what he and his buddy would make, combined, one could only take up a single roster spot, for the money. And I'm really not any kind of a Vidro fan, here, just saying that the thought process works for me, just not the execution.
if there's anything you can do that will stop things here from becoming the PI Blog or M's official message board, I implore you to excercise that ability.
Before Suzi and her twin find out about this place.
Before Logan, Nagol, Mr. X, and all of his subspecies infest this place.
Because I can't resuscitate Munchausen, my twin brother from a different mother, to establish some interesting distracting commentary that, while a bit off-topic, was at least very fun to follow.
Before 3-bills ML finds out I'm hangin' out here and takes out a hit man on me for smokin' his @55 in the PI-blog fantasy baseball league for two years straight.
That explains the echo
of laughter I heard coming from the east....shit.Dollar97 - December 18, 2006
man...
My only solace is that there is a chance, albeit small, that Snelling gets injured/becomes a bodhisattva/has a sex change and stops playing, while Vidro finds some kind of legal/untestable nutritional supplement that allows him to produce at or near normal DH levels.In which case Bavasi is brilliant.
But I wouldn't bet on it.
Weeeeell ok, I'll bet a buck, cause I like to think positive.
Bearskin Rugburn - December 18, 2006
That would suck
I'm a big fan of Chris's, and wish him a long and happy career. I'm just heartbroken it won't be with us.Graham MacAree - December 18, 2006
all the best to Chris
but I'm looking out for the M's first. There's no 'me' in team, remember?Bearskin Rugburn - December 18, 2006
How does Doyle doing badly help us out?
:(.Graham MacAree - December 18, 2006
by making the deal
make sense for the team. And none of the above is him doing badly. Just... differentlyBearskin Rugburn - December 18, 2006
There is if you
arrange the letters properly....Dollar97 - December 18, 2006
that's the joke
but thanks anyhowBearskin Rugburn - December 18, 2006
quotes
"Jose is a professional hitter," Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. "We feel we can add him to our batting order anywhere from the second to the sixth spot and he will add production to our lineup. With the addition of Vidro and Jose Guillen to our returning players, I think we are a much stronger offensive team."InSpokane - December 18, 2006
Willie is a professional hitter.
Rene Rivera is a professional hitter.Sam Rockwell is not a professional hitter.
Jeff Sullivan - December 18, 2006
Bret Boone is a three-time All-Star second baseman
Deanna - December 18, 2006
Yup.
And Hank Aaron was a 21-time all star. I bet he'd have a better Age 72 season than Vidro would an Age 32 season. Probably would run better, too. And play second base better.PositivePaul - December 18, 2006
Manure horses
are professional shitters.Gomez - December 18, 2006
fire them now
I'm excited to add his bat to our lineup," Mariners manager Mike Hargrove said. "One of the problems we had last season was that we didn't keep enough innings going. Adding a hitter like Jose, who makes contact and hits with runners on base, will help our offense."InSpokane - December 18, 2006
'Makes contact'
'Hits with runners on base'Hello, grounders to second with two outs and Ichiro on third.
Graham MacAree - December 18, 2006
We need the official M's dictionary:
'Hits with runners on base'Hello, grounders to second with two outs and Ichiro on third
'Hits with power'
Lots of fly balls die at the warning track
'fast to first base'
Can't hit it out of the infield
Dollar97 - December 18, 2006
good fit for the safco
allows 5-7 runs in 5 inningsInSpokane - December 18, 2006
I think the real plan
Is to get as many players named Jose as possible in the lineup at once. We are at 3 right now, but I think we can get at least a couple more for the bullpen...Jose Mesa...Jose Paniagua?anky - December 18, 2006
Okay
that is way to many times I have seen that name in the last week. From now on no one is to mention Jose Paniagua ever again.Scruffy Lefty - December 18, 2006
nah
I don't think that Bill and Grover are that smart.InSpokane - December 18, 2006
We need a 5th starter
LIMA TIME!!!!!Gomez - December 18, 2006
This F-ing Team...
Here's Keith Law's take:Sounds about right...
tait644 - December 18, 2006
The best
Summary of this so far.BTW: Has anyone heard from Bavasi since this fiasco or is he busy hiding out?
Dollar97 - December 18, 2006
I was going to say
that I'd be surprised if anyone has a problem with Christina Kahrl saying what a godawful, retarded, stupid transaction this is. Though I forget if she's doing trade analysis over the winter anyway.Deanna - December 18, 2006
You bet your ass she is!
...Jeff Sullivan - December 18, 2006
Al Cowens
Huh, I had completely forgotten about him.I can visualize Jack Perconte, Bruce Bochte, Spike Owen, Julio Cruz, and The Inspector - but Al Cowens had faded from memory.
KC @ Lookout Landing - December 18, 2006
The glasses
or, more accurately, big glasses + jericurl = a lasting memory for me.Visualize Al Cowens!
marc w - December 19, 2006
Nah.
I fully expect Ms. Kahrl to gush on Bavasi's genius this time around. I mean, heck, she's always going to take the non-sensical alternative viewpoint with the M's.Either that or she just spontaneously combusted from excessive laughter, and mocking "I Told You SO!"'s.
PositivePaul - December 18, 2006
Going to watch Snelling play...hopefully
The Nationals and Orioles are going to have an exhibition game at Harbor Park in Norfolk, Va. Got it in an email today. If you live on the East Coast or are visiting the area I would recommend going. I will be there with my "Go Doyle" sign."The Norfolk Tides have announced that Harbor Park will host its first-ever Major League Exhibition game on Friday, March 30. The game is scheduled to begin at 2:00 pm, and will feature the Baltimore Orioles against the Washington Nationals. Ticket prices for the exhibition game will be announced at a future date."
www.norfolktides.com
Ben in Va - December 18, 2006
Sigh
Goose - December 18, 2006
Apparently
Bavasi hasn't purchased a Baseball Almanac since the 2004 edition.JordanB - December 18, 2006
ESPN's take
Is just as negative as ours...http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=law_keith
I did hear back from the Mariners and it turns out that my season ticket deposit is refundable until Jan 22. I'm giving myself a week or two to cool off from the insanity of the offseason moves, but still very much plan to get my money back for 2007.
BrianF - December 18, 2006
there is no better message to send them
Matthew - December 18, 2006
Do it
I would do it.This is something that the M's might actually pay attention to.
Include a nasty letter along with it.
Jerry - December 18, 2006
I've been thinking...
...that something HAS to be up. Bavasi MUST have known is was an incredibly horrific trade. He must have. Absolutely must have. Is he a mediocre-to-poor GM? Sure, but to be any GM at all you must have at least a slight amount of sense, which would make this trade obviously bad.My theory:
-Bavasi, in wanting Jose Guillen so badly to be a Mariner (as THAT was a very sensible signing with good upside), sealed the deal by promising Guillen that he would bring in his best friend as well -- Jose Vidro. When it came time to talk to the Nats about Vidro, the Nats sensed a position of poor leverage and fleeced Bavasi accordingly -- because to break a promise with Guillen would mean his primary offensive acquisition would all of the sudden become a clubhouse-rotting shit storm.
By assuming that Jose Guillen wouldn't have come to Seattle without Vidro, I'm rationalizing the trade by saying we got Vidro AND Guillen for Snelling and Fruto. Slightly less bad.
And this also shifts the GM screwup from being a comically bad talent evaluation to an error in negotiating tactics, which I believe is more believable and inline with Bavasi's mediocrity.
Thoughts?
oneiric232 - December 18, 2006
Bavasi
truely believes this is a good trade.He viewed Fruto as very expendable because of the depth we had with relievers. He probably thought of the trade as basically Vidro for Snelling. In his mind, Vidro is probably a better hitter. He is proven in the majors. I think the biggest deciding factor is that Bavasi needs to win now. Vidro may be a slightly better DH than Snelling next year (very debatable - maybe more dependable is better). If he doesn't win now, he is likely out of baseball for many years.
Snelling has a lot of potential but is always hurt. The other reason this trade could have happened is because Bavasi is such a kind soul and wanted to see Snelling play OF somewhere every day.
Edgar for Pres - December 18, 2006
Also
Snelling hit .250 last season and struck out a bunch, Fruto really struggled with control and limiting runs, and this org is notorious for judging players from on field performance. Bavasi probably saw Snelling and Fruto as a small price to pay for getting a guy who has hit over several seasons.Gomez - December 18, 2006
Well...
Such a theory is just as much speculative rationalization as mine is.All I'm saying is I think my baseless speculation is better than your baseless speculation. ;-)
oneiric232 - December 18, 2006
Oh, I'm not saying it's smart
I'm just trying to make sense of his actions.Gomez - December 19, 2006
"I'm rationalizing the trade"
There's your problem.Goose - December 18, 2006
Humor me...
please? It makes things so much easier at this point...oneiric232 - December 18, 2006
I refuse to believe that.
There's no way Bavasi could think that Vidro is more reliable. He's missed 165 games the past three years and his knees are knowingly shot.All I have to say is that if our GM is so bad, how did we get such a great deal on Guillen? It was almost too good, and the Vidro is way too bad. It can't be a coincidence that Vidro and Guillen are best friends -- the deals must have been related somehow.
oneiric232 - December 18, 2006
The Guillen deal was good, but not great.
Graham MacAree - December 18, 2006
The Guillen deal
was acceptable, not good. I'd rather have Snelling out there.Edgar for Pres - December 18, 2006
The thing is
It doesn't preclude Doyle playing. Trade Sexson, shift Ben to first, Ibanez DH. Guillen in right, Ichiro centre, Snelling in left.If that'd happened, would anyone have had a problem?
Graham MacAree - December 18, 2006
No but the
way its worked out, the Guillen deal isn't too amazing.Edgar for Pres - December 18, 2006
Not too amazing?
Compare the stats of a healthy Jose Guillen to Alfonso Soriano. They're both the same age, too.Soriano got $100,000,000
We gave Guillen $5 mil and change.
It was a great deal.
oneiric232 - December 18, 2006
Umm
I'm not sure which angle I want to take to disagree with you on this one.First, the contract Soriano got was absurd. If we used contract size to determine player value then we would conclude Meche is one of the top starting pitchers in MLB.
His arm was injured. His arm may be one of his biggest assets. We don't really know how much this will effect him. Hopefully very little. I'm expecting about 100 OPS+ or basically him to give us league average production. I also think there is probably a +/- if 10 on that. Basically an OPS of something around .800 would be nice and I would be happy.
Guillen isn't that amazing of a player. His numbers make it look like he's declining. Its difficult to tell what kind of production we can expect because he was injured last year. If you look at his numbers, he had an amazing 2003 and then good years for 2004 and 2005.
Its also more likely that Guillen will get 17 mil over two years. This isn't bad as long as he plays well.
What I'm trying to say is that its nice that its a short deal but it will only be a good deal if Guillen is healthy and plays well. He took a discount because these are not guaranteed.
I guess I'm a little happier with the move than I put off. I guess I'm just depressed about our offseason in general and wish none of it would have happened.
Edgar for Pres - December 19, 2006
No, the Cubs got a horrible deal
There is a difference.Graham MacAree - December 19, 2006
Look at the lineup
The M's need a true #2 hitter (bat control) and Vidro is the closest thing out there to plug into the 2 slot. If Beltre continues to hit the way he did in the second half last year, he'll be our #3. Then Ibanez at 4 and Sexson at 5 and Johjima/Guillen/Lopez/Betancourt make up a pretty decent back half of the lineup.Our organization may be "notorious" for judging prospects by their "on-field" performance, but bloggers are notorious for overvaluing prospects. It's natural really... we've watched such a crappy MLB product, that we can't help but look at the farm for hope and heros. But that makes us suckers when it comes to overvaluing our homegrown talent. Put another way, Felix isn't the second coming of Dwight Gooden. Felix is looking like the next Bartolo Colon (which still makes him a fine pitcher.) Snelling isn't the second coming of Edgar Martinez. He'll be lucky to put up the career numbers of Carmelo Martinez. How many "can't miss" prospects do you have to watch flame out before you start to realize that only a special few lucky and determined souls actually cash in on their potential. Vidro has already proven something, and that makes him more valuable than a prospect that you think will eventually be a better player. Bavasi realizes that. And, like a few people have noted... he's got to make some moves to save his bacon. Fans and ownership want a 500+ season next year, not a rebuilding year with an eye toward 2009.
johnbai - December 19, 2006
Um
No? To everything?Graham MacAree - December 19, 2006
I second this notion.
Goose - December 19, 2006
What you say may well be true...
I think it's not, but let's grant the premise so I can say this:You say "Fans and ownership want a 500+ season next year, not a rebuilding year with an eye toward 2009".
This is true, but how exactly are the likes of Jose Vidro going to get the M's to be a .500 team next year?
We had a younger, more productive, and far, far cheaper way to help the M's get to .500 in-house, and Bavasi traded him away for Jose Vidro. This doesn't sound like a team that wants to get above .500 any time soon.
pdb - December 19, 2006
Bavasi is betting...
that Vidro will out-preform Snelling next year. Even though Prospectus (or somebody else out there, I forget exactly who) is predicting otherwise, I'd call that one even-money. You can laugh at me once next season is over... but right now I'd bet a six-pack that Vidro will be more productive than Snelling in 2007.johnbai - December 19, 2006
And what exactly brought you to that conclusion?
Goose - December 19, 2006
Bavasi also thought
Everett would be the solution to the post-Edgar DH problem. That...didn't work out so good. Bavasi's benefit-to-doubt ratio isn't so good these days.pdb - December 20, 2006
What brought me to that conclusion...
was watching Snelling (and don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Doyle) strike out a ton last year. He's patient and he swings hard at good pitches, but he misses too often right now. Last year's decent numbers were all based on his first couple weeks. After that, he felt like a major hole in the lineup. I think his approach is great though, and I hope he does turn into the second coming of Edgar... but he's not doing it yet. If Beltre would take Doyle's approach, he might go back to his .320 average with 40+ HRs and 50+ doubles.And then, with Snelling, there's the whole injury thing. I know Veege gets hurt too, but Doyle's had a series of major injuries that set him back year after year. He was turning into our very own Griffey in Cincy story.
johnbai - December 20, 2006
I don't think the biggest issue here
is trading Snelling. That by itself is stupid (even if you think Vidro's better for '07, what about '08 and '09? And for several million more dollars?), but going out of your way to target Vidro to DH speaks to an incredible lack of fundamental evaluation skills.Jeff Sullivan - December 20, 2006
Or not ...
I tend to think that whether you overvalue prospects or undervalue veterans, the issue is moot in this instance.Jose Vidro is obviously not worth trading two prospects for the luxury of taking on his contract for a spot in the batting order that could be easily replaced by any number of AAA hitters. Heck I'd take Adam Jones over Vidro for the DH spot. Even if he whiffs on everything at least I know he's gaining some experience, whereas a 33 yr. old station-to-station slap-ball DH is highly unlikely to suddenly emerge as the second coming of Edgar or Julio Franco.
The fact that we threw in Fruto as well just makes this trade even MORE puzzling. I don't see how trading two potentially useful pieces of the organization improves the club when the return is mediocre at best.
In terms of Vidro proving anything ... are we talking about the Vidro of recent times or the Vidro of Expo years? I mean back then Bret Boone was doing pretty well and Joel Pineiro wasn't such a bust. I don't think your comparison works when it's taking the best years of a veteran and comparing them to some random potential "flaming out" of a prospect.
Just my 2 cents.
manifestus - December 19, 2006
Exactly
"Heck I'd take Adam Jones over Vidro for the DH spot. Even if he whiffs on everything at least I know he's gaining some experience."Bavasi is not interested in watching Adam Jones get his experience by striking out 160 times while wearing an M's uniform next year. It might be a good strategy for the M's long term. But right now, Bill has to try to get the team to .500 to save his job.
I hate it as much as y'all, but right now the M's are striving desperately for credibility/mediocrity. All the armchair GMs out there think we're a laughing stock for dumping talented youth, but the casual fan will show up for a 500+ team.
johnbai - December 19, 2006
Meh.
Then Bavasi IS an idiot.While many stars started from Day One as a star, many, many more struggled their first year or two. Like, um, Edgar Martinez.
We've seen this before...a LOT. With MANY other teams THis striving simply doesn't get you credibility or mediocrity--it just gets you that many more years of bad baseball.
Airchair GMs who ignore history and think these are good moves are like the suckers who bet on roulette in Vegas---they think they're beating the system, but they're just getting fleeced by the house.
rtang - December 19, 2006
RE: johnbai casual fan remark
I understand that Bavasi wants to save his job but once again this doesn't make sense for Bavasi to do this because all it did was make his job harder if he keeps it.He is just delaying the inevitable.
Scruffy Lefty - December 19, 2006
I think Lopez was a good #2 last year
Low strikeouts, went the other way very well, bunted well, hit for a high average, hit for occasional power. Good production from the 2B position. The only knock against him is the OBP. I personally think he could easily increase it to the .330-.350 level this year, especially if he increases his power and gets pitched around a bit more.You're right in saying that Snelling is no "can't miss" prospect, but you've got to admit that Vidro is no "can't miss" veteran. To me, the best case scenario with Vidro is that he stays healthy and hits like Lopez, but with a higher OBP. Okay, great, but we already had that hitter, minus the low K rate, in Snelling. And he was able to play the field, and he was cheap, and he was young, and he didn't cost us a live arm. If you assume every rookie is going to fail, you'll end up with the 2004 M's. I don't think anyone's arguing that we shouldn't try to contend, I think a lot of people believe Snelling will out-hit Vidro in 2007. Which means that we paid millions of dollars and Emiliano Fruto to lose production.
And anyway, I don't think the M's need a #2 hitter at all. I think they need a #3 hitter and a #1 pitcher, the same things they've needed for four years.
chaney - December 19, 2006
I agree
Beltre was supposed to move into that #3 spot but that experiment has obviously failed to date. And to contend we don't need a #1 arm. We need a #1 arm AND a #2 arm; we need to preserve what remains of the bullpen by not trading all the pieces for our 10,000th #5 arm [and/or Bloomquist clones that can't actually handle baserunning duties]; and we need to conserve, rather than blow millions of dollars.And if the FO plans to blow the money, please at least do so on a Matsuzaka rather than picking up a ragtag collection of expensive #5 pitchers, declining DHs, and utility outfielders. Please.
goes to corner to cry
manifestus - December 19, 2006
Holy crap
You take the title, good sir. I cannot compete with your Vidroptimism/Prospectophobia.Well played.
Vidro4MVP - December 19, 2006
John Bai
You have made the most rational comment thus far. Apparently, there are too many "experts" here who can't get over the horrid Ramirez/Soriano trade.Wilder83 - December 19, 2006
Look out
I might try to defend that one too! That would really get the LL faithful riled up.johnbai - December 19, 2006
It's hilarious
I've spent the majority of my degree at an elite university developing a projection system that's designed to rival PECOTA, and the first person to call me an expert in any sense of the word (including me, hey) is a someone named "evan" with the apparent mental ability of a decapitated goldfish.You're "awesome". Go away.
Graham MacAree - December 19, 2006
Its Stretching....
reality to assume that Snelling will be a more productive hitter than Vidro next year. Vidro has for sure been on a downward trend, and I agree that as a DH, the trade doesn't make a ton of sense, but I doubt that Snelling would have been trotted out there to take the spot if nothing had been done. Bavasi wanted another slugger, saw the price, and decided to upgrade elsewhere. We need a good #2 hitter, and Vidro most likely will out-perform Snelling in that capicity next year. He fits the batting order, as it stands, a little better, and makes contact... Chris hasn't proved to be a contact hitter in the bigs, yet, and that's a hell of a gamble to take, given the injury history, if you are Bavasi. His value is as a # 4 OF, not a starter, and as such, I don't find him to be any kind of un-touchable.billy1 - December 19, 2006
The gamble that Snelling will perform
Is ALOT better gamble that the one Bavasi is taking on Vidro to perform. Both historically and realistically.Goose - December 19, 2006
I too wouldn't be surprised if
Vidro outperforms Snelling. If he does, it won't be by much. Snelling isn't as great as we all think (or at least he isn't that great yet). Snelling has proven very little at the highest level and no matter how much he hits in the minors, how great his eye is, or how pretty his swing is, he's still just a prospect.This trade was bad. I hate Bavasi. I want Snelling back. I hate Bavasi (I know I already said that but it bears repeating). Vidro may do better than Snelling next year. All these things can go together.
My big problems with the trade:
The difference between the two is very small.
Snelling has more upside than Vidro.
Vidro costs much more than Snelling.
Snelling is much more likely to perform better over the next three years.
Snelling can play decent defense. Vidro can't.
Vidro is old and chubby.
Snelling is cool.
We had to give up Fruto too.
Edgar for Pres - December 19, 2006
Wow, good post
I totally agree with all of this.Gomez - December 20, 2006
Not much of a gamble, if your job is on the line
I am not sure why Snelling would be considered a better gamble. I think that the assumption being made here is that he would A) start, and B) hit in the #2 spot. Neither would likely happen. Your Junior GM job, (goose) is to make this team win next year, and to keep a hold of the core couple of prospects, for the next couple of years. That mandate makes Snelling a chip. It also makes Soriano a chip, and I think that those two shoud have been packaged for something a little bit more shiney. But they weren't, and the assumption that (at least) Snelling, should have garnered more, is unrealistic. He is well past the highly regarded prospect timeline, in his career. I don't know this, but would bet that other GM's see him the same way.billy1 - December 19, 2006
Fine, even if Snelling were not a starter in 2007
for the Mariners, Ben Brouusard would be. And he's also a very good gamble to outperform Vidro in 2007.You say my job would be to make this team win next year. Fine. Then to do that I'm going with the best players possible. Chris Snelling is already better than Jose Vidro. Ben Brouusard, who Hargrove would likely start over Snelling if we kept him, is already better than Jose Vidro.
Jose Vidro is going to hurt the teams chances to win next year, more than Snelling or Brouusard. Therefor he's going to hurt my chances of keeping my job.
Goose - December 19, 2006
vidro will hurt club
no, he won't, this club gets better, right away, with a productive #2 hitter, which neither Broussard, nor Snelling, is, right now. In no way, would anyone who gets paid for their opinion, consider Snelling to the better player right now. Better future? Only maybe, but present? Not even. A couple hundred big league at bats, punctuated by what, a 30-40% SO rate, vs. Vidros' career line? Nope.billy1 - December 20, 2006
Who let the PI blog in here?
Graham MacAree - December 20, 2006
Your shit still stinks too Graham.
Edgar for Pres - December 20, 2006
When was the last time
I made an analytical argument this bad?I'm going with 'never', but hey, I could be wrong.
Graham MacAree - December 20, 2006
Careful, Graham
People might think you go to Oxford, with debating skills like that. :-)pdb - December 20, 2006
I'm a scientist
Why would I do debate? :PGraham MacAree - December 20, 2006
To see how the other half lives?
Slumming?Broadening your skillset?
yeah, I got nothin'.
pdb - December 20, 2006
Its just fun to tell people
and I took the oppurtunity.Edgar for Pres - December 20, 2006
You can't just use his career line
to justify saying he will perform well next year. I'll concede that the last couple years he was injured but you can't ignore the last couple years. He has been a pretty average hitter the last couple years. He's getting old and he can't stay healthy.I don't think there is any way you can argue that a platoon of Broussard/Morse would give us less production out of the DH position. If you don't like Morse then replace him with any righty who hits LHP. This would cost less and not require us to ship off Snelling and Fruto. Wasn't there anyone in the FO who thought about this deal before they signed off on it.
Edgar for Pres - December 20, 2006
Vidro's career line is irrelavent
Because he's not the same player that he was a few years ago. That much, is obvious to everyone.I'm not saying Brouusard would be be a productive #2 hitter.He's more like a #6 hitter. But regardless of were he hits, he's still a better hitter than Vidro, even if he's not platooned. And it's not that hard to find a platoon partner for him if one decides to go that route. Much easier than paying for the money and talent that Vidro costs.
Also, Snelling put up a better line than Vidro in 2006. Yes, it's in a 4th of the at bats, but it's still there.
Snelling's SO rate in 2006 is more than likely not a trend. He's never even came close to striking out like that in his professional career before. The chances of him all of a sudden becoming Richie Sexson in terms of strikeouts is not good at all.
Despite his bad September, Snelling STILL put up a .110 ISOP(isolated patience). That's pretty damn impressive if you ask me. It's obvious his ability to get on base is still there.
Not only has Vidro's power dropped continually over the past 4 years, but so has his ability to get on base. His ISOB has gone from .087 in 2003, to .073,.064, to .059.
Goose - December 20, 2006
One last thing
Broussard taking over the spot would require a platoon player, and at what he and his buddy would make, combined, one could only take up a single roster spot, for the money. And I'm really not any kind of a Vidro fan, here, just saying that the thought process works for me, just not the execution.billy1 - December 20, 2006
Snelling was the only guy on the Mariners
roster that could of been a 2 hitter.Scruffy Lefty - December 20, 2006
Jeff--
if there's anything you can do that will stop things here from becoming the PI Blog or M's official message board, I implore you to excercise that ability.BrettJMiller - December 20, 2006
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAck!!!
O please O please...Before Suzi and her twin find out about this place.
Before Logan, Nagol, Mr. X, and all of his subspecies infest this place.
Because I can't resuscitate Munchausen, my twin brother from a different mother, to establish some interesting distracting commentary that, while a bit off-topic, was at least very fun to follow.
Before 3-bills ML finds out I'm hangin' out here and takes out a hit man on me for smokin' his @55 in the PI-blog fantasy baseball league for two years straight.
Like good ol' Archie and Edith would sing:
Those were the daaaaaaaays
(But, really, I don't miss 'em)
PositivePaul - December 20, 2006
Oh God
Please ban Logan, Nagol and Mr. X right now. Even if they've never posted.johnbai - December 20, 2006
Just for Old Time's Sake...
SSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTGUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNN!!!!Okay. Kill. Me. Now.
PositivePaul - December 20, 2006
For someone who claims to not miss 'em...
..you're sure up on who they are and what they did. :-)pdb - December 20, 2006
How can you forget...
when that is the first thing that pulls up when searching M's blogs... or at least used to.It is hard not to forget what is singed into your brain, even when you haven't been there in over a year.
ppl4life - December 20, 2006
So true, so true...
And, similarly, the invocation of the name Bobby Ayala brings back some memories, not-so-pleasant so they were, clear as daylight.PositivePaul - December 20, 2006
This is what I get
for spending all of yesterday in airports.Jeff Sullivan - December 20, 2006
Sad isn't it....
And bavasi still couldn't pour piss out of a boot, if the instructions were on the heel.Dollar97 - December 20, 2006
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