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It's Spring Training For Me, Too

And this whole "game every day" thing is still a little weird. Gotta shake off the rust.

Anyway: Mariners 8, Brewers 7. Matt Thornton got to do something I hope we never see again - start - before giving way to Kevin Appier, who gave way to Jake Woods, who gave way to George Sherrill, who gave way to the end of the game. Somehow, Appier was the best of the bunch, while Sherrill was the worst. I hate Spring Training so much.

If Gil Meche's oblique injury is any worse than Rick Griffin says it is, then that really puts the team in a hell of a tough spot to start the year. Gil would have to heal up and re-gain his arm strength, leaving a temporary rotation spot to one of Jesse Foppert, Kevin Appier, Jeff Harris, Clint Nageotte, and Dave Burba. Color me less than excited, for the following reasons:

Appier: Sucks and is old
Burba: Sucks more, is older
Harris: Rate stats pretty much the opposite of what you'd like
Foppert: Velocity isn't where it needs to be, has to prove himself again after getting hurt
Nageotte: Tons of work to do on his control, didn't start a single game in Tacoma last year

It didn't take long for the lack of organizational depth to become apparent. Faced with the prospect of entering the season with a rotation consisting of five guys with pretty big question marks, the Mariners did nothing to address their depth concerns, and now they're left having to hope that, for the first time in his career, Gil's injury isn't serious (it probably isn't, based on what we've been told, but you know what I mean). That's a bad policy at the best of times, and the odds are good that it's going to end up being one of a few major reasons why the team falls short of winning 90 games. Players get hurt, and good organizations are able to deal with it without losing too much ground. Right now, the Mariners don't look very prepared for the (practically) inevitable.

I'm going to be honest with you - if Gil has to miss more than a week or two, and we have to pick a starter out that group to start the season, I'm not really sure which way I'd go. I guess Foppert would be okay, in that he's not any of the other guys, but I'd so much rather be able to wait and see how he performs in Tacoma before calling him up. I'm not real big on the idea of bumping him to Seattle in April, because I don't think he's quite ready to be effective. Still, if the team does end up having to make a choice, I suppose "least terrible" is as valid a reason as any for picking one guy over another. Please, Gil, hurry back.

"Anytime you see anyone get guys out like that, they all become intriguing -- especially guys like Kevin Appier," Mariners manager Mike Hargrove said.

My brain is actively trying to figure out a way to travel back in time to the point at which it contained only a preschooler's education, so that at the very least it could pretend like it didn't see this coming.

If that Hargrove quotation doesn't do it for you, then try this one on for size, where he offers his justification for having three of his top lefty relievers - Thornton, Woods, and Sherrill - all pitch in the same game:

"It's good to have them throw together," Hargrove said. "I think they can learn from each other a little bit."

If that's the case, then Sherrill's getting a raw deal. Perhaps Hargrove's fantasy is a bullpen at equilibrium, where none of the guys are too good or too bad, and they all bring identical attributes to the table since each individual is nothing but an aggregate of everyone else. Maybe Thornton can pitch in the same game as Felix and learn to throw right-handed. Don't ever let anyone tell you that the Mariners aren't pushing the frontiers of science.

Felix, Soriano, Mateo, and Carvajal tomorrow, against Milwaukee at 3:05pm EST.

0 recs  |  20 comments

Comments

Oh. My. God.
Kevin Appier: Aaron Sele 2006.  Team Jeer-Magnet.

FWIW, Thornton's throwing strikes for a change.

Not gonna happen
Man, I hope not
Never thought I'd say this, but... get well soon, Gil Meche.
Why not?
Basically, Appier needs to have about 3 good ST outings in a row, and Meche needs to just not come back quite so fast from his oblique, and the "gritty veteran secures 5th starter" stories start writing themselves...
So whatever happened to Harris
I know he isn't great (or even good) but he is a heck of a lot better than Appier or Burba and would give the Mariners another option.
HARRIS LIVES!
Straight from Churchill's report, linked below:

On Wednesday, Jamie Moyer will start versus San Francisco with RHP Jeff Harris, RHP J.J. Putz and southpaw Travis Blackley slated to get work as well.

Erm, EDIT:
Linked by PositivePaul, that is.  Not me.
He has pitched already this spring...
and had moderate success it would appear (meaning he didn't give up any runs)... link: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=260303112
God damn.
I don't know why I keep forgetting about the guy.
He's not.
Jeff Harris is the poor man's version of Ryan Franklin. That's not "a heck of a lot better", that's "marginally better because he's cheaper right now as a player not eligible for arbitration or a veteran, and maybe a bit more likely to succeed, but still throwing stuff that's not going to fool many major league hitters".

Remember, Sele was leading the team in ERA and quality starts at one point in mid-June last year- so in terms of "hey, let's throw in a veteran as a patch job until Meche or Fopper's ready", really, Appier's not that much more unlikely to fill that bill than Harris. Heck, Billy Beane's done this with guys like John Halama in the recent past, waiting for his AAA team to come up with something.

But yeah, when you're hoping for Gil Meche to get healthy so he can post his usual 4 IP/4 BB/3K line...

Let me expand on my remarks...
The problem isn't the 5th starter. Look at who the A's have used as 5th starters at times, for instance: John Halama, Gil Heredia, Kirk Saarloos.

The problem is:

  1. Felix (OK, sure)
  2. Washburn (uh...not really)
  3. Moyer (uh, not really)
  4. Piñeiro (uh, not really)
The M's organizational depth problems are more at the top. Washburn's a middle-rotation guy, and Moyer and Piñeiro are bottom-rotation guys (Moyer you need to hide against teams like NY and Boston who can pound 3-2 83 MPH fastballs, or against most teams outside of Safeco, and Piñeiro's just been a flat disappointment and was always projected as a 4-5). Meche also counts as a bottom-rotation guy.

We'd have adequate depth if we had better guys at the TOP of the rotation, ironically- but that's something we weren't willing to fix by investing in Millwood, Loaiza or Burnett.

Why Thornton?
I thought Livingston was supposed to start today. What happened there?
Livingston out
with a stiff neck.
Go Read Churchill's Explanation
For B-Liv's neck at the bottom of this page (last paragraph).  It's pretty funny, and quite believable!
Cosmic Confusion...
Matt Thornton starts, walks only 1 while striking out 3, yet George Sherrill doesn't strike anyone out, walks one, and gives up a home run.  Kevin Appier takes over for Thornton, and doesn't give up nothin.  

Sheesh.  

Wait a minute, though.  This Cosmic Confusion has to be affecting your judgment...

Certainly Naggs and Foppert may not quite be ready yet, and we've seen Harris' so-so performance (except his awesome game in Arlington).  But are you seriously telling me that Meche is so far above these guys that losing him and replacing him with Foppert/Nageotte/Harris actually hurts this team?  I'll give you Appier and Burba.  Both of those guys are likely done.  However, while I certainly agree they could use a little more time wearing Tacoma training wheels, I just don't see a huge dropoff between what Foppert/Naggs/Harris could give you and what Meche brings.  

I feel a little bad for saying this, but I believe Meche's injury is a hugely good thing in that it forces Hargrove, et al., to take a more serious look at Foppert, Nageotte and Harris (Soriano, too, perhaps?).  It also gives them motivation to pull it together a little more, since there's (at the very least) a perception that a spot in the Seattle rotation could become available.  Nothing like a carrot, however small it is, to dangle in front of these guys to see what they've got.

I realize spring stats are pretty much useless.  Spring performances, however, are not.  If Foppert's throwing over 90 again, then that's a very good sign he's further down the path than he was last year.  Let's face it -- Meche is slated as the 5th starter; Felix is penciled in as the true 5th starter, but that's moreso to protect his health.  In reality, Meche inherited Franklin's 5th starter role, in terms of performance, and because of his lack of durability -- nevermind general ineffectiveness -- would be relied upon as such (and the bullpen would be managed thusly, one would hope, since they would be frequently called upon when Meche pitches).  Youngsters in transition and those who need a little more seasoning are very often used as the 5th starter (or long and/or mopup relief), especially in cases of necessity.  I, for one, do not believe that the dropoff between Meche and one of Foppert/Naggs/Harris would not be all that significant.  

Please, Meche, take your time, and DON'T hurry back!

When did...
Meche's 5.00 ERA become so hard to replace, I mean what's the replacement level for ERA?  I know lots of things have happened since then, but '05 PECOTA had Foppert with a 4.29 and put Neogeotte on a 4.79 figure. Meche's BB/K last year was almost 1:1.  He is not good and has been showing it for most of the last three seasons.  As for Fop/Nags one of them will be in AAA, and hopefully the other will be with Mariners, if it's not going well swap one out for the other.  A reasonable projection for the two seems like around a 5.00 ERA, if not better.  As for this new two-seamer Meche is trying, it seems like a good idea, but there are a million spring training stories like this every year, and most of them don't show up as on-field improvements.  I won't miss Meche much at all.
Re: When did...
Gil is no great shakes, but I'm expecting an improvement, and I think it'd also be in Nageotte, Foppert, and the Mariners' best interests to have those two guys begin the year in AAA. Not so much because they'd perform that poorly (although I think that's pretty likely), but because they need the work, as neither seems ready to pitch in Seattle right now.

Foppert, right now, is sort of in between his pre- and post-injury velocity. The rest should come back over the course of the season, but for the time being, that isn't enough. And Nageotte just needs to get some starts under his belt. I don't think Seattle is the right place for either of them to be in April.

I agree
Unfortunately, the logical conclusion to that line of reasoning is Appier or Harris starting for the M's if Meche isn't back.  

Yikes.  

Still, I would rather see the M's go with Harris for a bit than mess up Foppert or Nageotte.  Getting those two healthy and productive in the long term is more important than a slight improvment in a few games in April.  

By the way, perhaps now is a good time to enquire about the availability of Zach Greinke?  

Gotta agree with the above statements
I been rooting for Foppert to surplant Meche anyways.
That's Foppy to you...
Dammit.

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