CONTEXT
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Philadelphia Phillies will face each other in the 2008 World Series, which begins tomorrow night. The Rays have advanced this far by defeating the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies have advanced this far by defeating the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both the Rays and Phillies managed to defeat their opponents by outplaying them in a short series.
KEY PLAYERS
Tampa Bay:
Roster
Philadelphia:
Roster
Both the Rays and Phillies are filled to the brim with possible difference-makers. The 50 listed above will likely be the most important.
KEY QUESTIONS
Can the Tampa Bay Rays outscore the Philadelphia Phillies?
They can.
Can the Philadelphia Phillies outscore the Tampa Bay Rays?
They can.
Will one of the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies outscore the other four times?
Most certainly yes!
X FACTOR
The Rays will play a maximum of four games at home, while the Phillies will play a maximum of three games at home. The home crowds may or may not help. I imagine there are also intangibles somewhere.
CONCLUSION
Both the Rays and the Phillies are good teams. The Rays are a little better. If you re-played the World Series a million times, roughly 55-60% of the time the Rays would be crowned as champions. This World Series will be played once. One of these teams will win four games. The other probably won't. The outcome will mean everything, and nothing.
12 recs | 85 comments
Awesome.
Double06 - October 21, 2008
I see there are some new features added below front page articles.
Wilder. - October 21, 2008
Does the addition of the FB button mean the FB LL group is officially a propoganda arm of the Tui-umverate?
Faux - October 21, 2008
This explains so much.
Kirsten Schlewitz - October 22, 2008
This post is so good I'm going to Spread The Word.
Or Buzz Up. Or something. But I am slightly disturbed that you didn’t talk about either Promising Young Player or Wily Veteran Taking His Last Shot.
pdb - October 21, 2008
X factors!
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
Tell me about it. You did an entire preview and didn't once mention intangibles.
And people wonder why bloggers get no respect from the Bill Plaschkes of the world.
pdb - October 21, 2008
I mentioned intangibles once
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
Like I'm supposed to read all those WORDS.
pdb - October 21, 2008
Okay, you mentioned them
but you didn’t emphasize them.
pdb - October 21, 2008
They were intangibly emphasized.
You cannot quantify how much he mentioned them. It’s all the other things that the mention brings to the article. The extra word count, the meter, the way it comes after a really short sentence, helping to strengthen both points individually through the use of hard stops.
Matthew - October 21, 2008
Great post by Jeff, but if you had done this preview
There would have been beer at the bottom. Which would have been good.
Sec 108 - October 21, 2008
What a gritty post
Your experience is really showing at the most clutch time of the year.
Sandy Kazmir - October 21, 2008
One of the teams might outscore the other? I am shocked at your boldness.
BrettJMiller - October 21, 2008
I dare others to step out onto my limb
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
One team's fan base will be overjoyed, while the other's will be temporarily despondent.
pdb - October 21, 2008
...
If they tie over the course of the series, you’ll eat those words.
Faux - October 21, 2008
I should amend this sentence
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
Don't retreat off the limb
pdb - October 21, 2008
I have to cover my ass
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
No one likes it when you walk around naked in public
seattlebruin - October 21, 2008
Oh great, another hidden comment...
Faux - October 21, 2008
I thought you meant and/or
JI - October 21, 2008
I am going to guess that baseball will be played tomorrow.
Maybe in St. Petersburg, but really it could happen anywhere.
BrettJMiller - October 21, 2008
One of these games will go into extra innings
Dewey N - October 21, 2008
There will be at least one home run hit in the series
seattlebruin - October 21, 2008
Not bold enough.
“There will be at least 4 runs scored combined in this series, with a minimum of 1 per game, but no apparent maximum.”
CapSea - October 21, 2008
Well said
JI - October 21, 2008
As with life itself.
Insight without prolixity.
Paytheline - October 21, 2008
Prolix! Prolix! Nothing a pair of scissors can't fix!
pdb - October 21, 2008
After reading this preview,
I am FUCKING PUMPED! for the Fall Classic. Thank you, Jeff.
FlaskInSafeco - October 21, 2008
You also didn't mention how many Octobers there are.
pdb - October 21, 2008
This is a serious article
I didn’t want to insult my audience.
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
And we appreciate it.
The Pulitzer people will be in touch.
pdb - October 21, 2008
You probably want to throw something in there about small ball and the importance of the HnR
Faux - October 21, 2008
How about a forecast for how many of the runs scored will be manufactured?
pdb - October 21, 2008
Fall under the header of "outscoring"
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
According to this
http://www.northerniraq.info/forums/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=348
THERE ARE TWO OCTOBERS!
Eyebrows - October 21, 2008
Also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two_Octobers
Eyebrows - October 21, 2008
Too funny. Rec'd.
Abominable Snowman - October 21, 2008
But you didn't.
Llewdor - October 22, 2008
Running the series a million times
It would be interesting to simulate this out in Diamond Mind of MLB 2k8….
Difficult to simulate it exactly though, as we won’t really know exact starting rotations and stuff like that.
batura - October 21, 2008
I'd rather see it in Power Pros.
That’s a single to right. UPTON! With an RBI single! THE RAYS! Score the first run of the game!
Two Rs and Two Ls - October 21, 2008
Nice.
Teej - October 21, 2008
Those pronunciations are on purpose, correct?
Faux - October 21, 2008
Turning off the announcer is the first thing I do when playing Power Pros
Signed in just to applaud this comment.
Spoomeister - October 21, 2008
I love the messed up announcer.
joof - October 21, 2008
The messed up announcer just adds to the campiness of that game.
Two Rs and Two Ls - October 21, 2008
So do you think the Phillies will collapse once Gillick leaves?
Fin - October 21, 2008
For once, he didn't make any big splashes.
The only one I remember that could have gone bad was the Cupcakes deal, and they didn’t really give up too much for him.
I’d say that Philly might break that string.
Faux - October 21, 2008
He made a big splash in Seattle?
Robert - October 21, 2008
Sorry, bad term.
Faux - October 21, 2008
More like drained the pool.
Two Rs and Two Ls - October 21, 2008
They gave up two of their top four prospects for him.
(BP rankings)
Teej - October 21, 2008
That was really their best prospects?
Wow. Everything I had heard was that they were OK talent, not anything that high.
Faux - October 21, 2008
Yeah, they didn't have much to begin with, it looks like.
Kevin Goldstein had them ranked Nos. 3 and 4, with both of them as three-star prospects.
Dave Cameron is high on Cardenas. Or at least he was at the time of the trade.
Other than that, though, I don’t know much.
Teej - October 21, 2008
Hey look the first W. S. since the Astros got their asses handed to them.
A one game W. S.! Go Jamie!! And those other 8 guys behind you!
dpseadv - October 21, 2008
I am now filled with existential ahngst
Bearskin Rugburn - October 21, 2008
I predict that pitching, defense and offense will be key in this series.
eponymous_coward - October 21, 2008
In some as yet indeterminate order
Jeff Sullivan - October 21, 2008
Well, pitching and defense win championships
so offense is obviously third. So now it’s just a matter of determining which intangible is more tangible.
pdb - October 21, 2008
A loud home crowd or clubhouse chemistry?
Eyebrows - October 21, 2008
I'd have to go with clubhouse chemistry, myself
but the loud home crowd might be pretty significant too.
pdb - October 21, 2008
Not the most important factors
Loud home crowd < championship tradition < veteran presence < playoff experience < clubhouse chemistry < scrappy white guys with dirt on their unis <<<<<< playing the game the right way.
PDXTai - October 21, 2008
Needs more clutchiness
I predict the team that scores the most runs in the first game will have a good chance to win that game. If that’s not going too far.
I also think that if one team gets ahead 2-0 or 3-1 or even 3-0 in games, the other team will have a difficult time coming back, unless they’re really, really clutch.
I predict that the adjective “surprising” will be used to describe the Rays no less than 3 × 10^8 times.
PDXTai - October 21, 2008
Don't forget the phrase "out of nowhere"
pdb - October 21, 2008
Scientific fact:
(minimum number of times 2008 Rays described as surprising ) >= (speed of light in meters/second)
I think Einstein was the first to theorize this. I also predict the announcing crew abuses both postseason statistics and pitcher-hitter matchup statistics at least 6.02 × 10^23 times during the series.
FlaskInSafeco - October 21, 2008
I am just realizing that the odds are very good that a reliever
Will be pitching when the World Series ends.
Sec 108 - October 21, 2008
Nostradamus predicts:
At some point, a clubhouse trainer will come on to the field to examine a player.
Paytheline - October 21, 2008
Nostradamus predicts:
At some point, a manager from one of the two teams will make an on-field decision described by the announcers as “unpredictable” that is, in fact, completely predictable.
esoteric - October 21, 2008
I'm reasonably sure that over the course of the series
Tim McCarver will say something asinine.
pdb - October 21, 2008
Nonsense!
Big Jared - October 21, 2008
Good lord, this is a real book?
You’ve got to be fucking joking me.
Double06 - October 21, 2008
I predict that no less than 36 innings of baseball will be played
Nick S - October 21, 2008
You could have 35, with half-innings and a sweep.
Faux - October 21, 2008
That’s why it’s a prediction, duh.
MrIncognito - October 21, 2008
Fail.
19 innings: 4.5 innings each in TB and 5 innings each in Philly (TB sweep).
Although I have no idea how a domed stadium can have a rainout…
PositivePaul - October 22, 2008
Good heavens
http://www.google.co.il/search?hl=en&q=world+series+preview&btnG=Search
Jeff Sullivan - October 22, 2008
This might be your big break!
Aaron Campeau - October 22, 2008
We said the same thing about avian sperm.
JI - October 22, 2008
too funny
Matthew - October 22, 2008
Of course I would argue that mine is the most accurate and useful WS preview of them all
Jeff Sullivan - October 22, 2008
Without bias, I would support your argument.
Matthew - October 22, 2008
Clearly.
Kirsten Schlewitz - October 22, 2008
Statements of fact require no arguing.
Sec 108 - October 22, 2008
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