Lookout Landing

We should sign her, too.

She’d be even more of a novelty act than Junior.

Llewdor - November 18, 2008 reply

If he's already got major league stuff/command,

and his command does look pretty good in the vid there, he still needs something like a year and a half in the minors before he can hit the majors right? As a rotation solution, I don’t like it. There are so very few examples of pitchers who have come over the Pacific and had success (I’m counting Matsuzaka as a disappointment).
But then again as you say, if your high minors have no one with any upside beyond #4 starter, this is the way to restock in a hurry.

Matsuzaka is an innings-eating #2

he may not be the all-world ace some people thought he’d be, but he’s certainly not a disappointment.

Would you pay, say, $7-8m for a first-round pick that’s immediately ready for the upper minors? I would. (Although if I’m mistaken and Tazawa’s worse than I think he is, then obviously that changes things.)

Really?

167 IP, 4.82 tRA* is an innings eating #2? I’d call that a just okay number 3. And this is the guy who’s the absolute cream of the crop. Then again, we’re only two years into his ML career so from here he could either figure something out and not walk so many guys, or he could precipitously decline. Both have precedent.

Anyway, $8 milion for a guy who has to hang out in AA/AAA for two years and come up for his first taste of the majors at 24-25 seems kinda steep. But… yeah whatever, these people have more money than they know what to do with.

This might not be a popular position here

But I don’t like your use of tRA to describe whether or not Daisuke has been a good number two starter or not. A starter’s job is to prevent runs, Matsuzaka has done that. Now, you can say that much of his success this year is unrepeatable, that he will decline to something like his 2007 production next year, ok, but so far he has been a better than number two starter.

A number 3 starter, FWIW, is around 97 ERA+.

abelard - November 18, 2008 reply

ERA+ is just as useless as ERA.

At least on a single season basis.

oh boy

Firstly, his 07 was significantly better than his 08. He pitched 37 more innings, walked 14 fewer guys (in more innings) and had the same K rate. If I had a choice between DM ‘07 or DM ’08 I’ll take ‘07 every time. So he wouldn’t be ‘regressing’ to his previous form.

Second, how do you figure that he has been a better than number two starter? He’s the 3rd best starter on his team. He won a lot of games, but guess what so did Washburn in 02. And he is not better than a #2, as I think we know.

Finally, I don’t know what you mean exactly by his ‘production’. If you mean the outs produced by the fielders behind him, then yes, the production this year was very good, but it wasn’t explicitly his. If you mean his pitching, well he pitched much better in 07 but the luck wasn’t there so much.

I do concede that if a #3 starter should be average (ERA+/tRA+ of ~100) then Daisuke is a pretty good #3, though the innings could be a problem if it turns into a pattern.

...

A starter’s job is to prevent runs

Not really.

Of course it is

it’s the job of every single starter except the DH to prevent runs. But a pitcher can only do so much and Matsuzaka did less than the results suggest.

by the way, I first typed resluts instead of results, so I guess I should hit the sack.

Semantics alert:

It’s the job of the pitcher to make the best possible pitch in any given situation. Run prevention is a team effort. I know it seems like nitpicking but I think it’s an important distinction to make.

Bearskin Rugburn - November 19, 2008 reply

I was joking

and trying to imply at the same time that every starting player whether fielder or pitcher is responsible for run prevention.

ERA does not describe how well a starter has done at preventing runs

This is so blindingly obvious it’s unreal

Graham MacAree - November 19, 2008 reply

I still tend to work with tRA more than tRA*

Caught me

I chose tRA partly because it makes him look worse.

But also I think if you’re looking at true talent rather than true results (and this is more important if a guy’s only pitched two seasons) the regression is useful. For instance, Daisuke’s HR rate sits at jusr over 4% for the season, and that’s pitching in Fenway. That may or may not continue, but in the meantime I think a little gentle adjustment to league norms is healthy.

Graham MacAree - November 19, 2008 reply

Oh, you're absolutely right

but 2007 happened, too, and we can’t just throw it out. I’m just still on the fence with tRA* on a single-season basis.

Matsuzaka’s been effective. He hasn’t been an ace, or particularly close to it, but I don’t think the Red Sox are disappointed with him.

Jeff Sullivan - November 19, 2008 reply

To me, Matsuzaka is one case where I'm not sure how accurately his '08 tRA describes him

just because he’s notorious for nibbling around the plate when he gets behind in the count and that leads to ridiculous walk totals. I’d expect him to make an adjustment and regress towards his ’07 form in the future if/when his LOB rate starts to regress

seattlebruin - November 19, 2008 reply

tRA worked perfectly on him in 2007

you WOULD say that

Bearskin Rugburn - November 19, 2008 reply

He'll be the best pitcher in High Desert!

Gomez - November 18, 2008 reply

I can think of many relievers who have dominated

even at an advanced age.

Just off the top of my head:

Otsuka
Sasaki
Okjima
Saito

even Hasegawa was reasonably effective.

IAs for starters, Nomo had a good run, and Dice-K isn’t much of a disappointment at all. I think people have too high of expectations for some of these guys and forget to adjust to the level of play in the league.

Unknown quantities are always forced to live up to unrealistic expectations.

Ichiro hits balls in the dirt for inside the park home runs!
Matsui will break the HR record!
Matsuzaka throws an unhittable magic pitch guided to home plate by the Spirit Winds!

And so forth. People don’t know anything concrete about these players so they create their own mythology. (And for the record, this isn’t directed at Bearskin Rugburn. I don’t consider Matsuzaka a disappointment, but he’s not as good as I thought he would be either. He’s still damn god though.)

Matsuzaka is not actually God.

He is good. Just not God.

Please don't call him Dice-K.

It’s no easier to type than Daisuke.

And it’s way dumber.

Llewdor - November 18, 2008 reply

can we call him pacman?

pdb - November 18, 2008 reply

It's a stupid nickname, but it's pretty well established.

You’re going to see it for a long time.

But it's not a nickname.

Call it what you want, it exists.

It horrible, and it makes no sense. I’m just saying that we’re past the point of defeating it.

as nicknames go

it’s better than firstinitial-firstsyllableoflastname, but that’s about it.

pdb - November 18, 2008 reply

I just wish someone could explain it to me.

Other than “If you put these two things together and pronounce them, it sounds like his first name.” If “dice” had any significance, then we could put that with the K (strikeouts) and maybe have it make sense. But “dice” means nothing.

Though two years later, we are learning he is quite the gambler with the number of guys he walks.

It's better than having his name mispronounced?

I actually think that having his nickname sound like his actual name is legit feature in this case. Sports announcers mispronounce enough foreign names the way that it is.

ubelmann - November 18, 2008 reply

"Dice-kay" is a mispronunciation anyway, if I'm not mistaken.

Slightly, yes.

There should be a little bit of a stop between the two syllables.

Yeah: Di-ss-kay

The 2nd syllable is ‘su’ with the ‘u’ silent.

Gomez - November 18, 2008 reply

I don't think it's exact...

…but I thought it was supposed to be pretty close. Without Dice-K, I’m pretty sure that we would hear a lot of die-soo-kay.

ubelmann - November 18, 2008 reply

If you try to say "Huff" in Japanese it will come out "Hai-af-u"

Your never going to get it fully right unless you are familiar with the language.

Absolutely.

Anyway, I’m giving the impression that I care way more than I do. I’m pretty sure I started out defending your using it, and now I’ve moved over and started criticizing it. I’m a dirty hypocrite.

I'm just saying it's not a nickname at all.

I think I agree with you.

Well K means strikeout, and dice means something cool

say, the opposite of “no dice”

Yeah it’s meaningless, but it’s not more offensive than any other stupid nickname. I have not idea why someone would get their testicle tied in a knot over it.

ow

I think you could just say Ha-fu which sounds remarkably close to Huff

Dewey N - November 18, 2008 reply

Just pulling out nuggets from phonetics class.

A more fun choice would have been Mexico

Which I think remember comes out as Me-Ki-Shi-Ko.

There are probably other more interesting ones that people could come up with.

Barely.

brayden04 - November 19, 2008 reply

I see nothing wrong with the nickname and will continue to use it.

Relievers are a wholly different

I don;t think you can really make the comparison. Nomo yes, you’ve got that. But that’s why I say that there are few cases, not none.

Also, dominated is maybe a strong word to use here

I mean, Hasegawa had one season where he dominated. Do you remember what happened the year after?

He didn't really dominate in 2003.

This is more of a question

How many Japanese pitchers have gone through the big league minor league system?

InSpokane - November 18, 2008 reply

Two that I can think of.

Mac Suzuki and that kid who got busted for amateur porn. I could think of his name, probably, but that’s how people will remember him whatever the case.

There’s also Kenta Suda currently in the M’s system trying to pull off the feat.

Tadahito?

Tadano, I thought

They all sound alike.

It was Kaz Tadano

And it wasn’t amateur porn, it was pro gay porn…

Tomo Okha spent two years in the Red Sox system before reaching the majors.

Mike Nakamura was developed in the Twins system, played for the Twins and Jays, then found success back in Japan.

abelard - November 18, 2008 reply

My mistake.

I wouldn’t necessarily count Nakamura though. He was born in Japan and is playing there, but he went to high school in Australia and college in the U.S.

Ah right

I knew about the Australia connection, but I didn’t realize that he went to college in the US.

abelard - November 18, 2008 reply

So basically, the sample size is really too small to say that unknown Japanese pitchers are not worth exploring?

InSpokane - November 18, 2008 reply

Yes.

There are some concerns, obviously, but relative to other international prep players, they have better equipment and instruction at all levels, so they might be a smart investment in some cases.

I'd invest in batters.

Not pitchers. Way too much pitcher abuse.

Occasional beasts like Matsuzaka will show up, but I doubt you’ll find a good prospect on a regular basis.

I don't know about that.

Matsui aside, I tend to find a lot of the position players signed out of Taiwan, at least, end up as tweeners, not quite enough offense to play at a corner and not enough defense to stick at premium positions. Maybe I’ve only been selectively paying attention, but it seems to be a trend, five-tool players, but on the lower end of that spectrum.

My guess would be like...

5 million, Major League contract.

He also just threw a 5-hitter in his tournament, IIRC.

CG SHO, that is.

So, more than Inoa, definitely?

I ask because...

if I remember correctly, there wasn’t yet been a prep player or semi pro from that region who has commanded more than a million. I remember Chia-an Huang was the record holder for a while and he got about 825k. That may have changed in the past year or two.

I think Tazawa could be the one to break through, but I don’t know if he’ll break Inoa’s number.

There is no downside to signing Junichi

other than extreme sucktitude. Sign him to a deal for less than 10 a year, trade Washburn. Wash, rinse, repeat.

abender20 - November 18, 2008 reply

Crabtree? Really?

I’d much rather have Regis Benn, Dez Bryant or Jeremy Maclin

Hell, I think I’d rather have Jordan Shipley or Juaquin Iglesias

seattlebruin - November 19, 2008 reply

You fail to mention

That Boston wants him, too.

We’ll sure have fun trying to outbid the 80 billion dollar contract Boston offers.

I have been following this guy the past couple months, and he is impressive. Hopefully we can reel him in, as I would think we have the upper hand give or take the aforementioned Braves. Id be shocked if he goes anywhere besides those 3 teams.

Slica - November 18, 2008 reply

Tazawa is a Minor Leaguer still.

He’s a prospect, not a product.

Wonder if having a Japanese catcher might give us an edge.

Slurvey - November 18, 2008 reply

Kenji may be gone by the time Tazawa is ready

Who am I kidding