Anyone for a little math? Let's calculate some WAR (Wins Above Replacement) using two handy posts from The Book Blog.
Mark Ellis
Offense: using a simple .1/.2/.3/.4 2005-2008 weighting system, Ellis' offense comes out almost exactly league average
Defense: +15. He's amazing
Offense + Defense wins/162: ~1.5
Positional Adjustment: +0.25
Replacement Level Adjustment: +2
Playing Time: Let's say 75%
Mark Ellis WAR: 2.79 (2.5-3)
Mark Ellis contract: $11m/2 - $16.5m/3
Manny Ramirez
Offense: +45
Defense: -20. He's terrible
Offense + Defense wins/162: ~2.3
Position Adjustment: -0.75
Replacement Level Adjustment: ~+2
Playing Time: Let's say 85%
Manny Ramirez WAR: 3.06 (2.75-3.25)
Manny Ramirez contract: Speculation is that he's already been offered $50m/2yr - $75m/3yr; seeking more
-----
Not that I expect the Mariners to be involved, but this is going to be a fascinating offseason to watch. The teams that get it will be chasing after guys like Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal. The teams that don't get it will be chasing after guys like Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Manny Ramirez. Billy Beane already pulled off the bargain of the decade, and you better believe he knows exactly what he paid for. But who's going to follow his lead? More than any other that comes to mind, this offseason should make it abundantly clear which teams have a shot at the pot and which teams are playing a joker in their flush.
I can't help but think that this'll be a bad winter to be a Mets fan.
3 recs | 41 comments
I wish we were good enough to try and sign one of the more rewarding FAs, because this class is pretty damned good.
Aaron Campeau - November 6, 2008
This isn't really fair considering that Mark Ellis definitely should have gotten more than he got
Dewey N - November 6, 2008
Obviously not around $25 million per year, but the gap still should have been smaller
Maybe Hudson’s contract would be a better comp (when he recieves one)?
Dewey N - November 6, 2008
O-Dawg apparently is seeking 5/$75+
Goose - November 6, 2008
That one will be worth looking at too
the funny thing is that Dunn and Burrell are out and out worse players than both second basemen, by a pretty good margin. Watch them not get paid like it.
Jeff Sullivan - November 6, 2008
Depends.
Hudson’s D might be on the decline. The metrics aren’t as universally in love with him as they are with Ellis. And he’s coming off a pretty serious injury. So to Ellis. Which neither Dunn or Burrell are.
For comparison, look at Adam Everett. If you assumed he would be healthy prior to the start of 2008, then he was a ridonkulous bargain. But going forward, it looks like his broken leg in 2007 has decreased his range.
rfloh - November 7, 2008
Also, Ellis likes it in Oakland
and wanted to stay there. So the deal Beane got wasn’t simply a wins per dollar bargain.
rfloh - November 7, 2008
This much I know
it’s not meant to be a fair and direct comparison. It’s just an example of how one skillset is wildly undervalued while another is wildly overvalued, even if in the end they add up to approximately the same contribution. I mean, could you ever imagine Manny signing a contract like Ellis’?
Jeff Sullivan - November 7, 2008
Yeah, I agree entirely that D is underrated
But, Ellis already had one serious shoulder injury before, and is now coming of a labrum tear, and shoulder surgery again. It’s not unreasonable for his value to be discounted because of concerns about his shoulder. While shoulder injuries of hitters are nowhere near as bad as they are for pitchers, they’re still pretty serious.
And Ellis also very likely took (much) less money to stay with the A’s.
I would never imagine Manny signing such a contract, because despite his age, he’s pretty durable, there are no serious physical concerns. And also, he’s never shown a desire to take less money to stay with a team.
rfloh - November 8, 2008
I'd rather my infielders be coming off upper-body injuries than lower-body injuries
You’re right, of course, but I don’t think Hudson or Ellis qualify as Everett-level risks.
Jeff Sullivan - November 7, 2008
I'm not putting them as Everett level risks.
Just using him as an illustration. For one, because they have broader skill sets than Everett.
But, Ellis already has a compromised / damaged shoulder prior to this season, which is why the A’s have never tried him at SS.
rfloh - November 7, 2008
I have to admit
I’m worried at the Dodgers pursuit of him and what he will do to the team. His energy revitalized them down the stretch, but how long does that last?
The Dodgers have holes at SS, 3B/2B (depending upon DeWitt) and half their rotation. Blowing the entire wad on Manny seems short sighted…
bluemax - November 6, 2008
It never rains, it pours.
Good to have you back and posting, Jeff!
chinn - November 6, 2008
OKAY!... I get it!
The whole of the baseball world is rockin’ the ganja except for the smart teams! Sabermetrics, my anti-drug!
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 6, 2008
junior
what about griffey, he would be perfect for DH
BadenBall - November 6, 2008
I HEARD THE KID WAS ON HIS WAY HOME
pdb - November 6, 2008
I've been saying this for months
JI - November 6, 2008
Seriously why doesn't somebody make a fanpost about this or something
Nick S - November 6, 2008
Because the overwhelming logic of the move would surely make for a boring fanpost in which everyone agrees
pdb - November 6, 2008
When I think DH
I think of past-their-prime, punchess, old, worthless retreads.
BrianL - November 6, 2008
1 WAR, bad
Jeff Sullivan - November 6, 2008
I have a nagging feeling that
he meant perfect not in a baseball sense
JI - November 6, 2008
On the one hand, I wouldn't really care since we're not going to win this year anyway
On the other hand, ewwwwwwww
Jeff Sullivan - November 6, 2008
I like my legacies untarnished and burnished in amber, thanks
not rotten, putrid and comical.
pdb - November 6, 2008
Don't forget the opportunity cost.
JI - November 6, 2008
Something tells me that this response was lost on him
Robert - November 6, 2008
Which makes it all the more fun
pdb - November 7, 2008
WAR!
What is it good for?
Graham MacAree - November 6, 2008
last in every significant defensive metric in the NL
HUH
pdb - November 6, 2008
Say it again
JI - November 6, 2008
Good God Y'all
johnbai - November 6, 2008
I thought a joker counted for a flush?
Although I did once hear about a variant of poker devised as a sardonic mock of the Mets’ futility, in which various cards represented various players and one particularly loathed bullpen pitcher was represented by the joker, which had no value whatsoever toward a hand.
PaulThomas - November 6, 2008
Indeed, a Joker completes a straight or flush
or pairs with an ace. The lame bullpen pitcher should have been the scoring chart for contract bridge.
Torgen - November 6, 2008
Who plays poker with the jokers in the deck?
Teej - November 7, 2008
Jeff
I don’t think the Mets are going to have a criminally stupid offseason, I don’t see them signing Manny or Ibanez.
I don’t see why the Mets wouldn’t bring in Burrell after the Phillies decline arbitration.
My question is why are the Mariners willing to part with Putz and how much will it cost the Mets to pry him away.
future - November 7, 2008
Rebuilding teams have no use for a closer
although now isn’t exactly the right time to sell him.
Jeff Sullivan - November 7, 2008
I understand that
But I would wait if I was the Mariners until the All-Star Break, he was the best closer in baseball before his injury…why would he be sold low?
Of course, knowing Minaya he’ll buy someone for their value pre-trade.
Enjoy Wimer Flores, et al.
Omar Minaya, enjoy being hated forever.
future - November 7, 2008
Oh btw
Would you guys be interested in Endy Chavez? He’s spectacular defensively. So good even with his poor bat he’s worth playing regularly in center.
future - November 7, 2008
Endy Chavez serves no purpose for a rebuilding team
I’d look at him if I were trying to win now, though.
Jeff Sullivan - November 7, 2008
Endy Chavez would make me really happy in an irrational sort of way.
Aaron Campeau - November 7, 2008
I suppose if we had zero other good LT options
He’s could at least keep our young pitchers sane
JI - November 7, 2008
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.