No, not really, but rather, just a story about the triumphs of statistical analysis in sports. So if you want to kill 20 minutes away from the family or are just on a break while your greasy friend sets up a new deck for the marathon dungeons and dragons game in your mother's basement (why is it always the mother's basement anyways? It always seemed to me that is was the fathers who wanted a basement), here's a decent read.
HS Football Coach Defies Conventional Wisdom, Wins State Title
Kelley's team only punted twice in 2007 − once as an act of sportsmanship to prevent running up the score − and never after that Dollarway game.
...
Kelley supports this rationale with numbers analysis.
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An innovative and statistics-minded coach, Kelley became further emboldened after reading several studies, including "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Pro Football," by University of California-Berkeley economics professor David Romer. Kelley also examined ZEUS, a computer program developed by Chuck Bower, who has a doctorate in astrophysics, and Frank Frigo, a game theory expert, to model and predict football outcomes.
Happy holidays everyone. Enjoy your final week of existence 2008, I'm coming for you.
0 recs | 40 comments
I love xkdc
Brick - December 25, 2008
"why is it always the mother's basement anyways. It always seemed to me that is was the father's who wanted a basement"
a mother’s basement is more likely to be free for D&D … a father’s basement would be filled with his own crap …
msb - December 25, 2008
or himself.
msb - December 25, 2008
See you in hell 2008
Robert - December 25, 2008
2008-worst year in 70 years?
Coach Owens - December 25, 2008
How could anything in 1938 top this?
Robert - December 25, 2008
The 1930s in general.
Coach Owens - December 25, 2008
The thirties were quite prosperous in Germany
Robert - December 25, 2008
Really?
Cause I thought I remember it being a shitty time in Germany because they lacked the American loans needed to pay reparations for WW1, which led to more economic/political instablity and a climate suitable for Hitler’s rise to power.
A Public Alias - December 25, 2008
You're thinking of the twenties.
brayden04 - December 25, 2008
So...
Basically this guy plays like a few assholes on Madden that go for it on 4th Down EVERYTIME, and does onside kicks EVERYTIME.
I hated playing against those guys. Although I was good at playing Madden online, these guys always seemed to be successful. I believe that the aggressive offensive strategy causes the opponent to alter their game plan, keeps the defense on the field longer than usual, and ultimately puts a lot of pressure on their own offense to score every possession. I started doing that online that had moderate to above average success, however, I always felt cheap because I wasn’t playing with “conventional strategies.” I would not play like that against a friend though, as it seems like a quick way to lose friends that use to play Madden with you.
BTW, didn’t USC go on 4th downs quite a bit a couple years ago? I remember them being quite successful as well…
wwbaker3 - December 25, 2008
Starting in 07ish, They rewrote the code at John Madden's request to make it more difficult to convert on 4th.
Drop passes, collapsed pockets and errant throws are much more likely on 4th.
Robert - December 25, 2008
Yeah, but the QB sneak
is still automatic. At 4th & < 3 yards, it’s a conversion 90% of the time. I never miss with QB’s like Seneca.
misterjonez - December 25, 2008
USC will almost always go for it
on 4th and less than 9 on the opponents side of the 50, regardless of the score. It is about being aggressive and instilling confidence in your players.
bluemax - December 25, 2008
Then he talks shit about your decision to go for it.
waldo rojas - December 25, 2008
Reply fail.
I blame the schools.
waldo rojas - December 25, 2008
In the spirit of math
Why does tRA hate Chien-Ming Wang while FIP likes him alot? Seems like one of the bigger career differences I’ve seen.
(also, career totals for statcorner would be a nice touch)
Edgar for Pres - December 25, 2008
Probably a more extreme reasoning for why Wang's xFIP is considerably higher hten his FIP
Homerun to flyball rate, strikeout to walk rate… etc
The Typical Idiot Fan - December 25, 2008
That, plus Wang's LD rate is poor the last few years
and tRA is modeled on runs allowed while FIP/xFIP is modeled on ERA, so to compare the two you have to add ~0.4 to FIP/xFIP
Matthew - December 25, 2008
Yeah i was just surprised how big of a difference it was
I’m guessing he’s one of the most different using tRA.
Edgar for Pres - December 26, 2008
And...
Engineers > all
HHZ - December 25, 2008
No
Engineering is applied math.
Rollo Tomasi - December 26, 2008
No physics is applied math
Engineering is applied physics.
By the time the math gets to us it tends to be pretty a butchered version which mathematicians would probably have nightmares about.
Edgar for Pres - December 26, 2008
Only off by an order of magnitude!
Matthew - December 26, 2008
Its really scary how right you are
Edgar for Pres - December 26, 2008
I really hope real engineers are more strict than software engineers
because if the same process that I go through to write and push live code is the same that goes into building actual things than I may have some issues.
Matthew - December 26, 2008
I really hope chemical engineers who design massive chemical plants....
oh wait…..
Edgar for Pres - December 26, 2008
Way to steal post ideas
from Gregg Easterbrook. He had a thing about this recently as part of his told you so on the whole anti punting philosophy he has.
bluemax - December 25, 2008
I love how the mathematician is a woman.
Kirsten Schlewitz - December 25, 2008
Like that's even possible
it’s just a cartoon.
JI - December 25, 2008
It's a guy with long hair.
Matthew - December 25, 2008
As though mathematicians ever wear their hair long.
Kirsten Schlewitz - December 26, 2008
?
Robert - December 26, 2008
I'm suspicious of the lack of a beard.
All the guys at the math department of my university have ridiculous beards to go with their long hair.
Jack Moore - December 26, 2008
Having the better team doesn't hurt either
They’ve lost a total of three conference games in the last eight years while attracting the best students and athletes from in and around the city of Little Rock. He’s maximizing the advantage, but realize it’s about like USC (which has a RB from this high school) going for it every time vs. Washington.
RATW - December 26, 2008
Process, not results.
Matthew - December 26, 2008
Every baseball manager should tattoo this on their forearms for easy in-game reading
“Just because something’s always been done that way,” Kelley said, “doesn’t mean it should continue to be done that way.”
A-fricking-men.
pdb - December 26, 2008
Ya,
like sacrifice bunts…ugh
wwbaker3 - December 26, 2008
This is a great story
However, I’m annoyed that the article’s first bit of analysis of the no punt strategy is that it works because you have a strategic advantage on 3rd and long. (Uhm, is the big advantage that it’s easier to get your first down in four attempts than in three?) It reminds of Dusty Baker’s observation that walking is good because it makes your opponent pitch from the stretch. Okay, it’s not that dumb, but it’s not very smart either.
philosofool - December 26, 2008
The big advantage
Is that when you punt, you are obligated to pass on 3rd and long, so the defense has an advantage because they can anticipate this.
If you don’t punt, you can run or pass on 3rd and long, so the defense has to be ready for both. This is a not insignificant thing.
patsfan - December 26, 2008
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