But then I use an old CRT with the brightness turned down to zero, so I was understandably fond of the old colour-scheme (black text on white for everything).
might as well drop everything and refer to them strictly with an unwritten unique guttural sound effect similar to a garbage disposal chopping eggshells.
Opinions can always be wrong. You're entitled to hold whatever opinion you'd like, but you're not entitled to it being right, or me not trying to refute it.
Well, the thing is, it's not an opinion when it can be disproven.
It's more of a hypothesis. Your hypothesis is that Spring stats are somewhat meaningful for evaluating talent and who deserves a roster spot, etc. I'm too lazy to look up all the studies and will instead quote Graham, who is smarter than you (and me for that matter)
"There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST."
--Graham
When there is evidence that what you believe is wrong, there's no shame in admitting you're wrong. That's something we on LL do fairly well, contrary to popular belief. There's a difference between a hypothesis and an opinion. Whatever you want to call your thought process though, there's evidence that it's wrong.
There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST.
A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. We took all spring training hitters and found that, as expected, about half of them do better than their career norms in the upcoming season, and about half of them do worse than their career norms. However, when we chose only those players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season.
Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage. Here's the list of players who are currently 200 points higher so far this spring training. These 24 players might be heading for above-average seasons.
Damn skippy
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
The only thing that matters in ST
is that the admission's way cheaper than during the regular season and you can sit on the outfield lawn drinking beer all day.
pdb - March 26, 2008
So if this were a bad real estate analogy...
Spring Training is the trailer park of the baseball housing maket?
thejew4u - March 26, 2008
Yes, with hotter women
because it's in Phoenix.
pdb - March 26, 2008
Do spring training felonies count?
/A hopeful Dukes
Jordan of Boise - March 26, 2008
"You cannot recomment a post
more than once."
Damn.
Matthew - March 26, 2008
But you can remind me to rec it
So give yourself an extra point anyway ;-)
thejew4u - March 26, 2008
ST
Get to watch players you hate Pre-fail.
CKremer - March 26, 2008
Can we put this on the sidebar
PShwa - March 26, 2008
Didn't we do this already?
Why don't idiots listen? WHY!?
The Typical Idiot Fan - March 26, 2008
Amen, Jeff.
sirbrianwilson - March 26, 2008
I approve of this post.
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
Hijack
But that blue monstrosity above the main section needs to go somewhere else.
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
Not to mention that
the subtext is in black and is almost unreadable, and that the game time is listed in EST when the game's in Seattle.
pdb - March 26, 2008
Given that this is a (theoretically) Seattle blog
Shouldn't it default to Pacific Time?
thejew4u - March 26, 2008
Yes
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
I didn't even notice there was text in there
But then I use an old CRT with the brightness turned down to zero, so I was understandably fond of the old colour-scheme (black text on white for everything).
Llewdor - March 26, 2008
Im in the same boat
Old CRT and the brightness turned all the way down
wadswerth - March 27, 2008
The event should not be appearing there...
And not in EST time. I will fix it.
Pablo Mercado - March 26, 2008
Thank you much
Could you also consider changing the text colour or the background colour? It's impossible to read.
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
on it
kind of glad the event appeared there by accident, revealing a css inheritance bug :)
Ryan Gantz - March 26, 2008
when I scroll over the red stars it shows a talk bubble with a link to that teams sbn blog
they're both being hidden behind the menu bar at the top of the page for me...
thenatural - March 26, 2008
To be honest I like Spring Training
They show lots of boobs in the outfield.
PhilKenSebben - March 26, 2008
Aside from Ichiro
I think we'll see lots of that for the M's this regular season, too.
thejew4u - March 26, 2008
Better than last year
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
Tampa Bay games are best for that
IIRC
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
Except when they show fat guys in suspenders
HARRYP09 - March 26, 2008
It's Tampa not Tampa Bay
they are fining their own people for that now, and chastizing media types for calling them Tampa Bay.
MfaninAlaska - March 26, 2008
Weren't they fining guys for using "Devil"?
Or is your post intended to be for the lulz? Am I over-analyzing?
BrianL - March 26, 2008
I'm a bonehead
it was for" Devil" not for Bay.
Had to go and check right after I posted that.
MfaninAlaska - March 26, 2008
Rays is a dumb-ass name too.
JI - March 26, 2008
They should drop Bay anyway
might as well drop everything and refer to them strictly with an unwritten unique guttural sound effect similar to a garbage disposal chopping eggshells.
Jeff Sullivan - March 26, 2008
Matthew - March 26, 2008
Ha. Win.
BrianL - March 26, 2008
Sold
Jeff Sullivan - March 26, 2008
Uh
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
They moved Vidro?
thecapn - March 26, 2008
They converted Batista to an outfielder?
I mean, I know Raul is bad but is Tits really a defensive improvement?
Sadly...I think he might.
BrianL - March 26, 2008
really
like, omg, thanks for telling me that jeff! you've changed my life forever.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
what?
thenatural - March 26, 2008
Your humor.
It leaves much to be desired.
BrianL - March 26, 2008
You were a good addition to the crew.
CapSea - March 27, 2008
Thanks
but really,
the mentally challengedtrolls are just easy targets.BrianL - March 27, 2008
me=not a troll
and i bet i'm smarter than you.
stlcardinalsfang - March 27, 2008
Based on your punctuation alone
I would take that bet.
BrianL - March 27, 2008
punctuation
i don't do caps but other than that i don't see anything wrong with the above comment and its punctuation.
stlcardinalsfang - March 27, 2008
And therein lies your problem.
BrianL - March 27, 2008
Play nicely kids
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
Do as I say not as I do?
Don't kill me.
ningwers - March 27, 2008
The community guidelines are quite clear on this point
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
Duly noted.
Sorry for going overboard.
BrianL - March 27, 2008
If you're going to be abusive
Just make it amusing.
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
Simply meant as a joke
I don't envy your job
ningwers - March 27, 2008
I was joking too
The guidelines say 'Don't be mean, unless you're Graham'
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
Lazy and dense
I've got a twofer going today
ningwers - March 27, 2008
this place has community guidelines?
stlcardinalsfang - March 27, 2008
See immediately above.
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
gotcha
so you can be a complete jackass but everyone else has to play fair essentially?
stlcardinalsfang - March 27, 2008
No, they just have to be funny about it
Since you are clearly incapable of doing so, you should probably refrain from attempting to be abusive.
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
so therefore
brainL got shit because he was being abusive without being funny about it?
stlcardinalsfang - March 27, 2008
That would be the gist of why my abusiveness wasn't well recieved.
This video primer is a fair example of how I should have gone about it.
BrianL - March 27, 2008
FUCK!
Lazy, dense, and gullible
I need a nap.
ningwers - March 27, 2008
You're really having a rough day
I hope Alfie can make it all better.
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
He has that effect
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
I'm actually more worried
about Alfie feeling all better in time for the playoffs
ningwers - March 27, 2008
Caps are your friend.
CapSea - March 27, 2008
disagree
why use caps when you don't need to.
stlcardinalsfang - March 27, 2008
Unless you're ee cummings
you need to. And a question mark at the end of a question wouldn't hurt either.
pdb - March 27, 2008
ee cummings smack NIIIIICCCCEEEEEE
I was wrong to have ever had a positive welcoming attitude towards the uninitiated.
JI - March 27, 2008
Or bell hooks.
CapSea - March 27, 2008
You're annoying
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
Because you need to.
CapSea - March 27, 2008
Oh no you're here now too?
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
Not for very long if he keeps this up
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
fine
i'll cut the crap.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
we don't take kindly to folks that don't take kindly around here
thenatural - March 26, 2008
Thank you
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
The banhammer beckons.
BrianL - March 26, 2008
???
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
too?
along with who?
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
but seriously
i think ST stats mean a little more than what you're giving them credit for.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
Wrong
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
theres a really long drawn out argument in the thread that immediately precedes this one...
you're probably not going to change anyone's mind about it
thenatural - March 26, 2008
i'm not going to fight anyone over it
i'm just stating my opinion. i'm too lazy to fight anyone about it tonight. but thanks for the heads up.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
You can state your opinion. But it's wrong.
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
opinions can't be wrong
because they're opinions.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
yeah... so... that deosn't really apply here...
thenatural - March 26, 2008
as i'm slowly finding out. . .
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
haha yeah
communism isn't so bad once you get used to it...
thenatural - March 26, 2008
disagree!
but i assume you're just going to tell me i'm wrong.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
youre right about that...
thenatural - March 26, 2008
go me.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
Hey! There's a correct statement.. Kudos.
seattlesundevil - March 26, 2008
Damn skippy
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
That doesn't apply anywhere.
Opinions can always be wrong. You're entitled to hold whatever opinion you'd like, but you're not entitled to it being right, or me not trying to refute it.
Llewdor - March 27, 2008
Well, the thing is, it's not an opinion when it can be disproven.
It's more of a hypothesis. Your hypothesis is that Spring stats are somewhat meaningful for evaluating talent and who deserves a roster spot, etc. I'm too lazy to look up all the studies and will instead quote Graham, who is smarter than you (and me for that matter)
--Graham
When there is evidence that what you believe is wrong, there's no shame in admitting you're wrong. That's something we on LL do fairly well, contrary to popular belief. There's a difference between a hypothesis and an opinion. Whatever you want to call your thought process though, there's evidence that it's wrong.
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
Ok, that's creepy
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
BUT I JUST WANT YOU TO LOVE ME!
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
So does Coach Owens
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
ew
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
Speakin of Coach..
Has he showed up around here yet with some new nickname to avoid being detected? I haven't seen any Will Thompsons anywhere..
seattlesundevil - March 26, 2008
he's been on here as coach
go to the last thread.
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
Ah must of missed it..
I'm at work wasting time so I gotta constantly hide the window :-)
seattlesundevil - March 26, 2008
*insert really stupid/offensive idea*
Graham: blah blah blah you're retarded and gay STAB STAB STAB
I was just kidding, chillax! :P
Until I start covering up for my idiocy by saying it was a joke, I think I'm half a step ahead. At least, I hope I'm not that bad. *shudder*
BrettJMiller - March 26, 2008
you are
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
No.
BrianL - March 26, 2008
Ok
There's been lots of work done on this. They have no predictive value for the season at all (I think I saw one study which claimed negative predictive value, which is funny), which is really unsurprising given the tiny sample size and the propensity for experimentation during ST.
Graham MacAree - March 26, 2008
Yea... fail.
seattlesundevil - March 26, 2008
that was a grand use of bandwidth
stlcardinalsfang - March 26, 2008
I don't think you're in much of a position to say that.
Also, your humor? Still bad.
BrianL - March 26, 2008
You mean Gary Matthews Jr. and Maicer Izturis
WON'T hit .400 for the whole season? ;_;
TheOptimist - March 26, 2008
Hey - if they can do that then Morse can hit .518
deal? Woo! Spring Training stats!
seattlesundevil - March 26, 2008
Hey, I'll take that deal.
McLaren probably wouldn't play Morse even if he did hit that well. Veteran leadership trumps everything, remember? :P
TheOptimist - March 26, 2008
::sigh:: Sad truths suck.
seattlesundevil - March 26, 2008
I had a dream about spring training last night
Wow I love baseball. The season is almost here!!
phil333 - March 27, 2008
Don't get too excited
last week I had a dream about eating a sandwich. I still haven't had that sandwich.
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
This wouldn't happen to be a Jeff sandwich on hottie, would it?
Upon rereading your comment I see that mine doesn't make any sense. Fuck it. It's too late to change it now.
ningwers - March 27, 2008
This is why we have a preview button
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
We're never going to make sense
Even with the preview button
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
It wasn't too late in the technical sense
It was too late in the "I'm too lazy to change it or come up with a better joke" sense
ningwers - March 27, 2008
Bar of expectations for ningwers: appropriately lowered
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
I haven't caught up to Corco, have I?
ningwers - March 27, 2008
I don't think that's possible
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
It might be technically possible
But I don't think I have the stomach for it... nor the willingness to violate the laws of civilized society
ningwers - March 27, 2008
Good Nick
Way to be responsible. Have a beer!
Jeff Sullivan - March 27, 2008
But not a Corco-style beer
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
I sure as fuck don't have the stomach for that
ningwers - March 27, 2008
If only...
Lack of beer is cemented in the top spot on the list of reasons I don't like work.
ningwers - March 27, 2008
A very interesting, and controversial claim
made by Dewan here
Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage. Here's the list of players who are currently 200 points higher so far this spring training. These 24 players might be heading for above-average seasons.
He really needs to expand on this.
rfloh - March 27, 2008
That is interesting
Wish he'd give us the data and sample sizes and everything though...
Graham MacAree - March 27, 2008
It looks like "doing better" can mean anything
So Morse is hitting .518. His career norm is .250. So if he does .260 he qualifies as "doing better"
Not saying that's not still good, only that the numbers are likely not substantial.
CapSea - March 27, 2008
Like I said,
he needs to expand on this.
Also, in case it wasn't clear, only the last sentence is mine. The 2nd paragraph is part of the quote.
rfloh - March 27, 2008
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.