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9-8

Seems I'm in a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, I'm missing tomorrow and I start to feel guilty if I don't have anything to say two days in a row. On the other, this was an easy game in Oakland with the A's broadcasters on MLB.tv, and not even Jonathan Lee Riches could find a way to make such an experience sound interesting. I'm not being hyperbolic. I like to think that, most of the time, I'm pretty good about finding little things to talk about during even the dullest of games. But there's just something about McAfee Coliseum and FSN Bay Area that sucks the life out of me. Every last little bit. I don't have anything personal against the A's or the people who broadcast for them, but after a couple hours' worth of exposure I find myself just begging for the game to end so I can go find a more stimulating activity, like whittling chapstick into smaller pieces of chapstick, or filing things. And believe it or not, these aren't the greatest conditions for inspiring a writer's imagination.

So, because I don't have anything fresh, insightful, or creative to say, I'm just going to let it be. No sense trying to force it and overworking myself in the third week of the season. After all, players aren't the only people who have to pace themselves. The effort it would require to extract anything of value from this snoozer of a cakewalk would be better off preserved for a later date, when it has higher potential upside.

8-1 and over .500.

Yay Mariners.

4_17_08_medium

Biggest Contribution: Carlos Silva, +23.5%
Biggest Suckfest: Ichiro, -4.9%
Most Important AB: Vidro single, +15.7%
Most Important Pitch: Brown triple, -5.4%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +24.1%
Total Contribution by Hitters: +25.2%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +0.7%
(What is this chart?)

Just a few quick things:

  1.  Carlos Silva, over a limited sample of four starts: 29 IP, 115 BF, 11 K (9.6%), 6 BB (5.2%), 42% GB, 7% swinging strikes, 4.77 tRA, 4.89 tRA*. His fastball's also down about two miles per hour from where it was a season ago. I know we want to be all happy and smiles and high-fiving each other over his 2.79 ERA, but so far he hasn't pitched very well, with horrible strikeout numbers and the lowest groundball rate of his career. Carlos Silva, right now, is treading a thin line between moderately useful and complete disaster. Waiting until the end of his contract is gonna be like going on a six-hour road trip and knowing that you have to pee after 20 minutes. If he makes it through 2011 without all of us hating him, it'll be nothing shy of a miracle.
  2. I know we've talked a lot about Raul Ibanez's defense, but Raul Ibanez is bad at defense.
  3. John McLaren used the ninth inning to give Brandon Morrow a chance to re-gain his confidence. The good news: he threw strikes, six of his 14 pitches were offspeed, and he struck out Jack Cust swinging with a good fastball. The bad news: his heater was 94-95 instead of 97-98 and he gave up two pretty well-hit balls in play. That he used three different pitches in the inning is encouraging, though, and in the end I have far less to complain about than I thought I would following his first appearance.
  4. In 2007, the Mariners had three games in which they walked at least six times as a team. In 2008, they already have four.
  5. The Oakland lineup is just...really? Are you serious?
  6. In the third inning, Bob Geren replaced the left-handed Lenny DiNardo with the right-handed Kirk Saarloos. This is the entirety of the difference between the two pitchers.

The Dicktator takes the hill tomorrow night against the freest-swinging offense in baseball. Mike Scioscia would be wise to keep Vlad Guerrero pinned to the bench considering the odds of him snapping his back flailing at the knuckleball are approximately 140%. try to bat Vlad at least three times in the lineup.

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Comments

What conclusions

can one make about Morrow’s loss of FB velocity?

He looked like he was trying to pitch instead of throw.

I’m trying to be optimistic about everything, though, so I’m probably wrong.

IMO, don't look into it too much yet

He didn’t throw very much tonight and he just got called back up yesterday. If it continues then maybe it’s aches and pains, or maybe he’s trying to sacrifice power for a little more control, but he didn’t throw enough fastballs tonight to really say whether that velocity is gone or just didn’t show up tonight.

none

it was 8 pitches

According to Jeff it was "bad news,"

so I thought that he was insinuating something about Morrow’s health. Guess not.

If he was throwing 85 I'd be concerned. I don't think this is anything to worry about.
Good point.

And like a few posters said below, it could be very well that he’s sacrificing some velocity in a trade off for better command.

I made and consumed soup while watching the game.

Said soup consisted of No-Chicken broth, potatoes, tofu and vegetables. The soup was about 1,000 times more interesting than the game. That should tell you something.

Veggie Power!!!

suck on all three of those exclaimation points omnivores.

At least the exclamation points might taste like meat.
I'm so pumped for the R.A.'s start tomorrow...

KNUCK KNUCK!!!

Me too

It would’ve sucked if his first start was against a patient lineup like Oakland because he could walk a lot of guys if they aren’t swinging at his stuff. But the going up against free-swingers like the Angels favors his pitching style I think.

on the bad side

Vlad is 7 for 16 with 4 hrs off of Wakefield (other notable knuckler) and has drawn 8 walks off him.

So yeah.. hope Scioscia sits him again tomorrow.

Remember when we went 2-5 which apparently meant that our season was over?

Good times.

I'm not sure that a 2-game sweep against the A's

is cause to throw out all of our concerns about this team…

We only lost 3 games since we got swept.

And aside from Texas, all the teams we’ve faced have gotten off to decent to good starts.

+.500 Without Bedard and Putz, with EOF’s meltdown is not bad.

Silva

He may not be pitching that well, but at least he’s gone 7 in every start. The M’s starters lead the majors in innings pitched. I know, not a great metric and they’ve faced some weak lineups. But with Putz and Bedard’s injuries, that’s pretty important.

I'd call that a pretty useful metric.
Morrow's velo was off and on last year as well

so I’m not worried about that. He was consistently in the high 90s in early 07, but he was also consistently all over the place. By the second half, he was sitting in the mid 90s, occasionally dialing it up, and much more in control (though still wild as all hell). Personally, I’m just excited to see him using a changeup effectively, getting swinging strikes and hitting the zone with it. If he’s going to ever be a starter, this will be key. So huzzah for Morrow and his 1IP.

Last year Joh walked 15 times in 513PA (3%). This year he’s walked five times in 54. I know he’s been facing bad pitching, but you know what they say, bad hitting will often lose to bad pitching. Actually they don’t say that, but its true. Just look at yesterday’s game.

Did he ever use a change last night?

All I noticed was a slider and a splitter.

yeah

he used a few. Talked about it with Baker afterward. Comes in at about 84-86mph, has pretty much the same movement as his FB.

I would guess that splitter and change are the same thing
While not enthusiastic, I am enthused

As boring as the game was (and dear God, was it boring), it’s still cool to wake up in the morning and realize you just continue to beat the pants off a division rival.

Being on the top side of an 8-1 score...

...makes it an order of magnitude less boring than being on the bottom side…

Agreed

I’m fine with boring as long as we’re on the 8 side and not the 1 side. This whole being over .500 thing feels good. Let’s not lose it this weekend to … them.

no no

same amount of boring. If your team is winning you’re stare-at-the-ceiling-and-pick-your-nose bored. If you’re losing you’re stare-at-the-ceiling-and-compose-bad-poetry bored.

To wit

I’m always okay with a win, even if it is a boring win.

Last weekend ...

Silva was gettitng saved by the D the whole time and Sims and Blowers were gushing about how great he was pitching. He was stranding two guys on base every inning, playing with fire. Then yestedrday, he walked two guys in a row in a pretty high leverage situation.

Just doesn’t seem like the results are sustainable, to my admittedly not great baseball mind.

Also

McAfee Cavern has that thick seaside flyball-killing air, plus it IS a cavern, so it’s not like Silva was in much trouble on any flyball he gave up.

Yeah, Silva seems concious of situation and ballpark.

I’ve kind of gotten the feeling that he doesn’t fully expend himself and waste energy on low leverage pitches, and he actually flat out said it today in Baker’s blog:

“To be real honest with you, the last two games, the offense has made the big difference,’’ Silva told me afterwards. “They always give me the lead. After they scored those runs, I felt more relaxed. I was throwing the fastball right there. They made the big difference. I wasn’t afraid to make mistakes because I knew I had a big lead. If I made a mistake, let’s go, give me another batter. That’s it.’‘

Basically, he knows it’s fine if he makes a few mistakes with a big lead so he just doesn’t worry so much about giving up a few more flies. When his teams leads 6 or 8 to 1, it seems like he’d rather go 7 or 8 IP with 4R than 6 IP with 1 R allowed.

If that's true, I'm more than OK with that.
okay ...

It was bottom of the sixth and we were up 6-1, so not “High Leverage,” but it was making me nervous.

That's pretty funny.

They were the only walks he gave up the whole game, though, right? I’m still cautiously optimistic that this is somehow sustainable.

But it's been said that I'm mildly retarded.
Graham calls everyone that.
there were also 2 outs in the 6th

the LIs were 0.17 and 0.38. It was about as low a leverage situation as you can get.

FWIW

I’d rather have Morrow hitting his spots and mixing pitches at 94 than rearing back and just flinging the ball as hard as he can towards the backstop at 97.

Me, too.

That’s called pitching, in most people’s books..

The Twilight zone season

there’s been alot of talk about the M’s drawing more walks this year…. the one that really is twilight zone is our own 25th man WFB.

Last year… 173 at-bats 10 bb
This year… 6 at-bats 4bb

Now that’s a head scratcher!

Actually that stat made me scratch my ass.

I wonder what that means?

Means that You

need to pull your head out?? Just guessing! ha! I made a funny!

That would explain my labored breathing.
It means the toilet seat needs to be cleaned
I always use ass gaskets, that shouldn't be a problem.
I find Kenji to be the weirdest
Considering he has zero history of being patient, his increased walk rate is pretty odd.
I think he realized whenever he swings nothing good happens

Or at least I hope he is realizing that.

He seems to have heated up a bit in the last few games.
all singles though

when he starts hitting for power again, I’ll be more assuaged.

Why are you breaking out words like "assuaged" before noon on a Friday?

My brain takes Fridays off, don’t you know that?

He's still pressing way too hard; swinging at everything

I’m perplexed by his approach.

wait

he’s walked 5 times in ~50 PA but he’s swinging at everything? I guess he’s making weak contact on his first swing a lot, resulting in a lot of shitty seeming ABs, but I’m sure he’ll break out of it. I think the projections will end up being spot on – just like last year with a few more walks.

He walked twice in 2 games

I hope you aren’t trying to sell him as being more patient this year. I wish I could go see those at-bats he walked in. Probably nothing in the zone even close for him to swing and get out on.

His walk rate was a bit better in Japan...
This is true for many Japanese stars.
question

I’m typically pretty hard on Raul. Do you guys think his success a product of SSS, or is the Raul we’ll see for good portions of the season?

Clearly not at this rate

but he’s pulling the ball with regularity and with solid contact, avoiding hitting groundballs, and popping home runs. The offense has been legit so far. He’s reminding me of 2006 Raul at the plate.

If it is legit...

....maybe he and the staff will learn…at this age…if you’re hurt, DONT PLAY!

I believe injuries are the key here

When Raul is healthy (2006 and end of 2007) he can put up crooked numbers. But most older players have a harder time staying healthy for a full season.

It’s amazing to me how much bloggers tend to dismiss injuries or say that players just “suck” when they are obviously playing at much less than 100%. Obviously, I wish Mac could assess subpar performance better and put people on the bench for a few days, or DL for 15 when they are hurt. Maybe he’s doing that with Bedard right now though… so he could be learning.

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