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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 16-26
Padres: 15-26

GAMES

Game 1: Miguel Batista vs Chris Young
Game 2: Erik Bedard* vs Randy Wolf*
Game 3: Felix Hernandez vs Shawn Estes*

Well, I was right about the one game. Yay! I had a whole paragraph written about Washburn and what the Mariners might do and then they went ahead and already announced they were skipping his start. So, shoot. On the plus side, I get to see Felix for the third time this year instead of that asshole Bedard and his regressing self.

Randy Wolf was a pitcher I desperately stumped for this offseason. The Padres signed him for one year and $4.75 million guarenteed with some performance bonuses for games started and innings pitched that could push his salary to a maximum of $8.75 million. That's three less years and at leat $40 million less than Carlos Silva. Randy Wolf is better than Carlos Silva and is also left-handed. Padres = smart. Mariners = dumb. This is the sort of thing that fills me with confidence for our shot at first overall in 2009.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Josh Bard
1 Adrian Gonzalez
2 Tadahito Iguchi
3 Kevin Kouzmanoff
S Khalil Greene
L Jerry Hairston
C Jody Gerut
R Brian Giles
D Probably someone who sucks

Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff were acquired in trades much in the favor of San Diego. Besides those two, the Padres have developed exactly one half of an offensive asset, that being Khalilbot. They are scoring 3.38 runs per game, worst in the bigs while the Ms are at 4.07 runs per game, 25th in the bigs. This is either going to be one incredibly boring series or it's going to one amazingly boring series. TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

CONTEXT

This freefall has inspired a lot of self-examination by all of us between LL and USSM and thus, most every topic of the Mariners have been covered over the past few days. I know it sounds like a copout, but I'm just not sure what else there is to bring up. Jeremy Reed's OPS is still hovering about 1.000. He's probably a better bat than Griffey at this point and his glove is approximately runs better.

An Ibanez-Ichiro-Griffey outfield would be so stupid as to cause time itself to collapse in on itself. Acquiring Griffey only makes sense if it's as a DH, of which both Ibanez and Sexson already need to be and which Clement currently occupies because Kenji Johjima, who should be biding his time to Type A free agent status, is locked here for the next 3.75 years.

I'd like to continue pulling for the team to sign Bonds but they'd probably put him at 2B, so you know what? Screw you Mariners. Grow a clue.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Old Rasputin Imperial Stout
North Coast Brewing Company. Fort Bragg, CA

Pours with a delicious looking 3-finger tan creamy head that sticks around for quite awhile. It's muted on the nose with mellow chocolates and a little smoke. Little bits of coffee, oat and cocoa come through on the taste and the palate is both creamy and filling, as you'd expect from how it looks.

I cannot give this beer enough justice in words. It might be the perfect imperial stout so if that's a genre that you enjoy, you are only hurting yourself by not drinking more of this beer.

0 recs  |  152 comments

Comments

Bird?
if anyone gets the connection i was going for, i'll be impressed.

graham’s dad might have the best shot

Looks like a heiroglyph.

100000?

durrr... Hieroglyph.

I before E and all that.

you are on the right track
Infinity?
closer

but perhaps no longer on the right track

1,000,000,000?
brrrrrrrrrrr
Closer to infinity, huh?

1,000,000,000,000?

you're not getting it.
What am I not getting?
...glottal stop?

Graham’s dad should get a real job.

FWIW, I'm pretty sure the only person who might know what I mean

by saying Graham’s dad might get it, is Graham and if Graham gets /that/ than I am officially scared about our brains being too similar.

In other words, that hint was helpful to nobody.

Do I enjoy obscure? Yes; yes I do.

I know

I think runs = 3 runs

Why?
Why what?
why do you think that?
This

is why Plus it’d make sense Reed’s defense would be about 3 runs above Griffey’s.

Look at the sentence construct

why would “3” make sense?

Because didn't you guys say Reed's glove

was overrated?

Griffey is arguably the worst defensive player in baseball
Why can't scientists invent a time machine

already? Then we could go back in time and take back 1994 or 1995 Griffey.

You want broken wrist Griffey?

I suppose he’d be more productive than Cairo…but still.

So you're saying that Griffey would not Aumont the team's abilities?

Surely he would Lind a hand somehow

Fail.
I'm not sure you get to judge humor.
In twenty years, when you're 60 years old,

you’ll finally see how my humor shines.

I won't make it that long

because of all the drunk driving I do after every drink. Speaking of which, I just had some Rogue Chocolate Stout, time to go cut my brake line and go joyriding.

SCOTT NOT JERRY HAIRSTON
You better be smoking, dammit
Somehow I think that statement is entirely full of crap
Well, seeing as how you'll be dead

of old age by then, it doesn’t matter.

I'm no expert at wit nor will I claim to be

but you’re just not saying anything funny

Who says I'm trying to?
You wouldn't be making remarks like that

if you weren’t attempting to make people laugh

Who said that?
I can't really respond to this without violating the TOS

so fill in the blanks with whatever you want

You’re a ___ individual

So, tell us, what was your purpose?
I'm going to start writing this site in wingdings
I hope you mix and match the various wingding fonts

because otherwise it’d be too easy to translate.

Well I know it means a very large number

I’m just not real caught up on my egyptology.

Remind me to use this one

next time I want to obfuscate the number 6.

This is driving me crazy....

Okay… my guess is Graham’s number? Right track?
G1? From the gardiner number?

Three cheers for Old Rasputin!

And everything else North Coast makes.

I don't make enough money to afford enough Old Rasputin

):<

I don't think it's too pricey.

I pay about 9 for a 4 pack, but given Rasputin is 9% and an average beer is about 4.5%, I think it’s pretty reasonable. Beer is one of my only real expenditures, but I’ve gotten to where I can’t drink crap, I swear it tastes like industrial effluent.

you should come up in June for the ussm/ll event.

we can make it an all-awesome seattle sports blog summit and amongst you jeff derek and myself we might be able to destroy bars with our beer snobbiness alone

Dateline: Seattle

Three local watering holes ‘Destroyed’ in snobbishness attacks. Police are reportedly looking for a group of men whose scattershot attacks felled bartenders, patrons, distributors and waitresses.
A bartender at downtown Irish bar Fado said that the perpetrators began by insulting the selection of taps. “I told them we didn’t have Old Rasputin on draft, but that we had Guiness. The guys went nuts; one of them said he’d have one if he could pay in monopoly money – another one said that this is like offering a Languedoc white to a man who’s ordered Haute Medoc; I don’t know what that means, but I don’t think it was a GOOD analogy. Finally, another guy just started repeating everything I said all annoying and shit, like, “No thir, I’m thooo thorry, we don’t have that – would you like a Guinneth?”
Patrons who tried to intervene were felled by verbal blows demeaning their intelligence, appearance, alma maters, knowledge of the show ‘House’ and ancient history. “It was like a tornado of snob, man. Normally, you just shut that out, but this was… this was too much. First they go for the beer – I was having a bud. Whatever, it’s hot out. Then they’re insulting my shirt, car and my WSU hat. I couldn’t get a word in edgewise; there were just too many.”
First responders were unsure how to counteract the attackers. One was seen sobbing on the street outside of the Nitelite, describing how he hadn’t had a lot of ‘advantages’ as a child, and was still trying to be proud of himself, ‘Damn it!’
Police are worried that these attacks are co-ordinated in minute detail, and warn seattle drinkers to slowly exit a bar if you hear anyone order a beer you’ve never heard of. “The most important thing is to avoid eye contact. Oh, and leave any and all Yankee or Red Sox apparel at home. We’ll solve this, but for now, we need people to take some precautions,” said police chief Gil Kerlikowske.”

I sense a "smug" cloud on the way.
if I could rec something more than once, I would.

I mean, I can, by logging into other accounts, but that’s too much work for me.

Absolutely delicious beverage.

Even better on tap.

I like stouts okay...

This was very good. Any heavier though and I’ll have to start chewing…

This series brought to you by Henry Weinhards Root Beer!

Smooth and miles beyond any other root beer that is mass produced. ain’t nothin’ better than a god root beer.

I’m a teatotaler.

uh-oh Coach is a hacker
_PhilKenSebben?
You mean a "teetotaler"?
i fail at spelling, sorry.
Need more beer
Not as good as Kemper, dumbass.
Most root beer is too sweet.

If you’d pimped some ginger beer I’d have been more impressed.

Again with the beer?
Have you tried some KCN?

It’s got a nice almond smell you might like, and it’s non-alcoholic.

What's with all the Potassium Cyanide references? I don't get it.
I love beer - this is well known

but I actually love this root beer. I’d rather have this than many beer beers (like the beers Weinhard’s makes).

I l ove it, but ooooooooooommmmmmmmmgggggggg it's so expensive.
If no one wants to win, wouldn't the games play on to an enternal draw?
almost

well, looks like I fucked that one up

link try again: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200804170.shtml

(You guys block links to espn, don’t you? It was just a game recap.)

Wold you believe me if I told you that the gamethread here for the last 6 innings drew 300 comments?
Why should he?

It sure beats talking about our craptastical team.

Why should he doubt you I meant.

I are smart.

5 innings ;)
If by Jerry Hairston you mean Scott Hairston, then yes you are correct
I believe this is the first suggestion of its type:

I want the Mariners to hire a Japanese manager who can’t speak English. Reason: not being able to talk to the players, the manager would judge players only on their performance and could hide behind the language barrier to, effectively, not give a fuck what anybody has to say about any of his moves.

It’s ok for the coaches to speak English.

Of course, you’d want that manager to be an effective judge of talent. For the team’s owners & management, that’s definitely a move that puts butts in seats and garners international attention. It also brings the team together: got a problem with the manager, ask Johjima or Ichiro to interpret.

Washburn to manager: “Johjima sucks at calling pitches.”

Manager (through Johjima): “Eat my shorts.”

With Good Natured Nerdy Smugness

I threw a comment up at USS Mariner timestamped 10:55 AM favoring Sadaharu Oh as the new manager.

I think it’s a super idea. It takes a bit of wishful thinking vis-a-vis MLB player attitudes- but how awesome would it be to bring in a Japanese manager who creates an atmosphere that naturally draws in hard working, dedicated players and repulses cry-baby whiners. The mantra would be “All we’re trying to do here is win a championship- everything else is secondary.” If you can get a bunch of guys buying into that theory- they may not pull it off right away, but it would make for really entertaining baseball and, I think, give the team a completely unique aura that would reignite Seattle’s passion for baseball.

Why'd Akira Ohgi have to die?
I predict I will be drinking

bottles of beer by the end of this weekend.

Padres = Smart?

Padres = worse than us.

No, they're not.

The Padres know how to spend money wisely. We know how to spend insane amounts of money on washed up 1B/DH/RF players and BOR pitchers.

They are a lot smarter than us
So were were smart in 2007?
Mariners 2008 payroll: $118M

San Diego 2008 payroll: $73.7M

USSM: Organizational Rankings

Stll one of my favorite posts. Dave hit a homerun with this one. Worth checking out since it’s right on the money.

8) San Diego = B
23) Seattle = D

Padres are smarter than us.

Angels are a C+?

Really?

Well,

The Angels did trade for John Garland and lock up an aging Torii Hunter on a 5-Year deal.

A)This was made 10/17

So neither of those had happened yet.

B) We traded an aging Orlando Cabrera for Garland in order to make room for our multiple SS prospects, Erick Aybar being the one who stepped up and won the job with his ridiculous range. Aybar has also been perfectly serviceable with a bat thus far. Garland was pretty much expected to eat innings and put up an okay ERA, which he has done so far. Cabrera has meanwhile blown chunks on Chicago. So far, we’re net winners on this one. Garland is also only here for one season.

C) Torii Hunter isn’t really that bad a deal. You guys gave Ichiro the same amount of money, and he’s the same age, and that was supposedly one of the better deals you’ve made.

But like I said, those two hadn’t happened yet, so the only real problem you could have with us is the deal with GMJ, which was admittedly bad, but I don’t see how it was bad enough to drop a team that has been a perennial playoff contender for four straight seasons and has good young talent to a C+.

Sorry, make that 10/12

My mistake.

Actually,

This isn’t a ranking for who has done a good job so much as it’s a letter grade for who’s going to do a good job going forward based on the organization they have in place. If it was about the former, Tampa Bay wouldn’t gotten an A.

A C+ indicates that you have an above average Front Office. Only Dave could tell you specific strengths and weaknesses. It’s because the grade was made before the Garland, Hunter moves that makes it VERY relevant. Your organization could’ve EASILY done better than Garland and Hunter.

The Tampa Bay Rays get an A, certainly not because of their past. They’ve fielded +90 loss teams year in and year out. But with a new organization in place that nows how to build a baseball team there’s reason to have high hopes for this club. And sure enough, after the offseason they had where they focused in improving their defense they’ve quickly become a force to be reckoned with. It’s so funny to see so many casual observers be surprised by the Rays yet a number of people who know better knew that this team is on the rise.

And as you can plainly see, our organization sucks at free agency and trades. This time, signing up Carlos Silva for $12 million a year for the next 4 years. There are guys like him floating around that earn a fraction of that and they’re not that hard to find. Also, yet another year where we pick up a bat or two that’s on its last legs (Brad Wilkerson).

Such as?

I don’t think we actually could have. They’ve both been pretty solid moves so far, especially considering what we gave up to get Garland (nothing).

And as far as organization goes, Arte Moreno may be the best owner in sports in terms of running it like a business and staying the fuck out of the way of the baseball people when it comes to the team. Tony Reagins is new, but Stoneman was a solid GM who stuck to his prospects, and was generally good at evaluating talent. Scioscia is a top 5, maybe even top 3 manager. We have a great farm and scouting system.

Torri Hunter is a terrible deal

he won’t age anywhere near as well as Ichiro well

Meh.

He’s got about the same build as Jermaine Dye, and Dye is still doing pretty good at 34 (year three).

they're not three years apart in age

and Dye >> Hunter as a hitter.

I think he meant year three of Dye's contract.
which, if true, would be amazingly irrelevent

since player’s don’t break down based on their contract length.

Dye is 34. When Hunter is 34

He’ll be in year 3 of his contract. Dye is a 111 career OPS+, Hunter is a 105 OPS+. There’s not that much difference between them. Considering defense, Torii is probably the better overall athlete and player.

they're 18 months apart in age. That's far more accurate.

and there are better measures of hitting ability, especially when it comes to aging, than OPS+.

I was going off Baseball References Top Similar Batter

Through age 31 actually.

Plus they don't play the same postion, and Dye has had the craziest career path there ever was

I don’t know how you could seriously compare the two.

Read above

And they both play outfield it’s not that much of a stretch to compare them.

One is a centerfielder and one is a rightfielder.

and it’s not like Dye could just slide over to center if he wanted to.

Dye’s career has had many peaks and valleys (mostly due to his broken leg), where as Hunter has been fairly steady. Other than that they don’t walk a whole bunch and have some power (Dye has/had a lot more) I don’t see why a comparison of the two makes sense.

Well

Given the following:

Similar build
Similar hitting
Similar position
Similar career path
Two years ahead of Torii.

I have to say they looked pretty comparable to me, at least as far as projecting Hunter goes. Dye has had better power, Torii plays a tougher position/is a better athlete. I really don’t see what the problem is. It’s not like I compared him to Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield here.

The big problem to me is that

center field is further on the up defensive spectrum… and not just by a little bit. Dye only started three games at center in his career.

But if you’re going to compare them as hitters I think that’s faulty too. I really don’t think they are too terrible similar. Sure their career numbers are somewhat similar, but they’ve taken vastly different paths to get there: Hunter has basically been a steady 105-115 OPS+ guy since he became a regular, Dye is all over the map: formidable peaks and horrific valleys. If it weren’t for the broken leg, Dye’s numbers would be even further away.

The main things that worry me about Hunter is that he played on turf his entire career, his defense has been in decline for some time, and that he really doesn’t have any plus hitting skills besides power ( he doesn’t hit .300, and he doesn’t walk), when his skills decline it’s going to be ugly.

Well, he's not playing on turf anymore

and while he didn’t break a leg, he did have a fairly down year with Minnesota. Dye has had exactly one off the charts bad year, and one off the charts good year. Otherwise, he’s been in the same range as Hunter his whole career.

And doesn’t the fact that Torii has been healthier, while playing a tougher position, on turf, only speak to his durability? Dye is in the same boat as far as skills go- again, that’s part of why I compared them in the first place.

Despite the weirdness of Dye’s career, he’s still the closest player to Torii in terms of career comparison.

We're gonna have to let this one go

because I don’ really think they compare very well on offense or defense, plus, Dye compares to hardly anyone because he’s had one of the oddest career paths ever.

The same is true of Hunter though

Look him up. Dye is the closest through 31 at 969 (not that all that close, overall)

I guess if you really want a CF though, I could always go with Steve Finley. I mean seriously, if Dye is so bad, suggest someone. Dye was the only guy I could find who matched up.

Finley was actually the guy I was thinking of

but his career took off after 30 and he took more walks

I know

Plus Finley was a smaller frame and 25 lbs lighter.

I wouldn’t particularly object to Hunter still being a decent offensive player to age 39, but that seemed unfair. Dye is a lot closer.

"Screw you Mariners. Grow a clue."

I suggest new co-GMs capable of getting huge raging clues:

I've got an Old Rasputin in my fridge

think I’ll drink it tonight.

I expected this to go more off topic.
Cameron > Cuddy.

There, it’s off-topic.

I'm NOT Corco.
I am happy that for once it didn't
I am expressing my shock, not reccommending it as a course of action.
Idaho Ford Highways Hippies Prius Cheap Beer (Lack of) Sex
What is "Things Discussed at Gate B-11," Alex?
I'm so very sorry.
Anybody know what the story is with Triunfel?

I saw on PI earlier today that he had reported to Peoria for some reason.

Apparently it's "nothing to worry about".

But I haven’t heard any details.

I was kinda hoping we'd have a Felix/Peavy matchup

Then I would have a chance to watch two terrible offenses get no hit at the same time!

Both pitchers throw 12 inning complete games until Raul's 4 base error loses the game.
Good off-day.

Rays = First Place
Yankees = Last Place.

Today would have been a good invade day of DRaysBay
I 'm way ahead of you...
I stopped in with 1 out in the ninth.
I'm already there
In all fairness I was talking about the Cardinals with RJ

and not acting as an LL ambassador.

needs more reply button
Would you like fries with that?

Hehe!

You just made my day
Yippee! Sarcasm!

Or laughingatmeism!

Jesus Christ Coach

Are you drunk?

Come on now. He's been on the wagon for 16 years now
I love it when peole laugh at their own internet jokes.
If by Jerry Hairston you mean Scott Hairston,

then yes, you are correct

Gaslamp must be in need of some good posters.

For fuck’s sake, Coach had a diary front-paged there.

To be fair to GB, CO really didn’t use any of his own ideas, but instead mashed up the works of Graham with some old-style Coach optimism and bad word choice. (“sweep us so we can have the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft and pick Stephen Strasburg!”)

Gaslamp Ball is awesome

they just aren’t as familiar with Coach as we are.

I agree that they're cool, in a low-key way.

I just don’t understand the Coach FPing. I’m sure you read what he wrote. Would you really FP that, even coming from another site?

Also, I think someone over on McCovey reads here, or at least reads the same stuff Graham reads, because there were a couple conversations about the Strasburg standings.

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