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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

Seattle: 18-30
Yankees: 22-25

GAMES

Game 1: Erik Bedard* vs Andy Pettitte*
Game 2: Felix Hernandez vs Chien-Ming Wang
Game 3: Carlos Silva vs Mike Mussina

Bedard is coming off his nicest start of the year last time around, but that was at home and against the Padres. This test is going to be a bit tougher. Can you imagine the pickle the Yankees would be in if Pettitte had indeed decided to retire? Boy, that'd be a hoot. Instead he goes on being slightly above average.

Felix is all over the place, but he's never looked vintage Felix in 2008. Even the first two starts which yielded great results, were not normal great Felix since even then his strikeouts were down and he was allowing far more balls into the air. It starts with getting that ball back on the ground Felix. And it finishes with THROWING LESS PREDICTABLE FASTBALLS. Meanwhile, Wang's groundball rate is in steady decline but along with that his strikeout numbers are steadily improving. I'm not sure why he's making the tradeoff, but given the infield defense behind him maybe it's no surprise.

This should be a fun one. Who wants to watch Silva get his slop slapped around New York while Mike Mussina baffles our hitters yet again with his ability to throw a spheroid object approximately 55 feet without having it hit the ground? No? Good news for you. James Shields takes on Daniel Cabrera at the same time in Tampa. Tune in to watch what a real lineup does against pitchers that cannot throw strikes.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Jose Molina/Chad Moeller
1 Shelley Duncan/Jason Giambi
2 Robinson Cano
3 Alex Rodriguez
S Derek Jeter
L Johnny Damon
C Melky Cabrera
R Bobby Abreu
D Hideki Matsui

We got manhandled by this very lineup a little under three weeks ago and now they've replaced Morgan Ensberg with a healthy A-Rod. Strasburg is about to be three games closer to ours. The Yankees haven't been scoring runs, but that's not much of an issue of their overall offensive talent and more to do with that .237 average with runners in scoring position. How do you spell regression? Well, I spell it M-A-R-I-N-E-R-S--P-I-T-C-H-I-N-G.

CONTEXT

The era of good feelings stemming from the series with San Diego just got bitch-slapped by the recession in Detroit. The Mariners offense continues to make mediocre and control-free pitchers look good by having no patience and not being able to capitalize when they do luck into seeing a mistake pitch. The Mariner defense continues to blow, though it should be noted that Jeremy Reed has awesome range and put it on display yesterday. More of him in leftfield please. The rotation, a strength in April, has been downright dismal in May and it hasn't been bad luck. Line drives and walks galore for these sad sacks.

Total combined out pitches amongst Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista: Zero. These three have to possess control or command in order to be passable. If they get both, they can be solid starters. Lately, they have neither and since they're not facing our offense that means they're going to get destroyed.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Double White Ale
Southampton Publick House. Southampton, NY

A heavier version of much-reproduced Belgian white ale there is a bit more to the taste than the usual orange, coriander and allspice. You get a little bit more wheat/yeast in this one.

0 recs  |  360 comments

Comments

Somebody doesn't read fangraphs

Because a smart, good looking guy wrote up a profile on Daniel Cabrera and his new found command earlier this week. Looks like D-Cab might have finally figured out how to pitch. Maybe.

That's certainly interesting.

Will have to keep and eye on that. Though I wonder if him figuring out means “I’ve re-invented myself” or “I’m like Gil Meche in Seattle”?

Even I knew this.
he has better command (so far), but he's still throws below average

and it’s come at the sacrifice of missing bats, which is down almost 50% from 2007.

Groundballs = Good

Check out the spike in his GB rate. Strikes + GB > Balls + Strikeouts.

I'm aware of his GB% increase

I’m skeptical it’s going to outweigh missing bats (4.7%) less often than Carlos Silva (5.0%) has when he’s still throwing too many balls.

I think I know a metric that might help here!
His tRA has improved by 0.21 runs this year over last
And

Not to get too much into trend analysis, but he’s been remarkably better in the last month than he was in the first. He’s walked three batters in four May starts, which is really quite remarkable considering what we know about his skills. I’m not saying he’s fixed, but he’s clearly changing his approach from what it was, and when a player makes a shift in skills this dramatic, it’s worth paying attention to.

Yes, but it's harder to make a joke out of that.
his K rate isn't as low as I'd expect it to be given his level of missed bats

I don’t know which one is much reliable but I think swing% is.

I hear Giambi's having issues with luck.

I don't expect those to last for much longer

somehow, the Mariners seem to defy statistics and regress every unlucky player to the happy mean

Hmm

Maybe he’ll actually wash the thong after they sweep us?

It's too early to talk about man thongs.

Is anyone else with me on this?

Too early?

It’s never time to talk about man thongs.

Excellent point.

I’m not sure what I was thinking with my original post.

The tone of these previews has become decidedly more pessimistic
I view getting Strausburg as a good thing.
It was funny when you thought this might happen in August

it’s less funny that it’s happened in May.

Wait until August, it'll start being funny again
haha! we traded Clement for Griffey in order to finish .500 and save Bavasi's job!

hahahaha STAB!!!

And then we traded (insert good relief prospect here)

to KC for Horacio Ramirez!

Is that where he landed?

I thought I threw him farther than that.

Yup

and the Battle for Grass Creek intensifies

I peed in Grass Creek once.

I thought that made it mine?

Oh...

the optimism of some folks…

I think Horacio will do great
I wish I had been born a lefty.

And played baseball.

It's the best thing you can learn as a parent

if your child is left handed and displays any semblance of athleticism, hand them a baseball. You’ll be handsomely rewarded with a beautiful retirement home someday.

Anyone can learn to throw left-handed starting at an early age.

I’m planning to teach my kid to do it, regardless of which hand is his natural hand.

That's what my stepdad's father did with him.
Even adults can learn this stuff.

If you examine what your right arm does when you throw, you can then mimic that behaviour with your left arm and produce a vastly superior throw than your previous girly-armed attempts within minutes.

The hard part is placing your feet correctly.

Are you kidding?

I can barely scratch myself with my left hand. Damn thing is useless.

When I take out the garbage, I have to unlock the dumpster

(it’s locked to discourage homeless people from wandering the neighbourhood). So I carry keys. When I’m done, I tend to throw the keys to myself behind my back. WIth my right hand, I toss the keys behind me and up over the left shoulder, and then I catch them, again with my right hand.

It occured the me that I could learn to do it with the other hand. At first, I just tried to catch the keys with my left hand, and after a few weeks I was pretty good at that. I tried throwing it a few times, but my body position was all wrong.

But now, I can happily throw my keys up over my shoulder from behind me with either hand, and catch both throws with either hand.

And your left hand can’t be that useless, Don’t you ever mouse with your left?

If by "mouse" you mean "push the power window button in the car", then yes.

I’m not really saying that it’s completely useless, I’m just debating how quickly I could develop a good throwing motion with it at this age. I am far from ambidextrious (crap, is that spelled correctly?).

a lot of it has to do with leg strength too
Whatever happened with that pitcher

who could throw with either arm?

Greg Harris?

or do you mean Pat Venditte?

I thought it was more recent than that.

But I’m brain-farting on the name.

Well, Pat Venditte is only 22

He was drafted by the Yankees, but decided to stay at Creighton

Maybe that is him.

The name just isn’t ringing a bell with me.

Yeah thats the guy i think
Jeez, we're lefties aren't we?

I guess it just means we’re naturally better.

My brother presents a strong argument against that claim.

Nah, he’s okay.

Truthfully, im going totach my son pitch lefty and place kick...

1 or the otherkid, one or the other

Long snapping is even easier
know a guy that does that for the Browns

but he can also snap a football into a garbage can from 30 yrds.

Not an important skill unless you're in the NFL.

Although it would make taking out the garbage much easier.

Ryan Pontbriand?
From Clements HS in Houston
Yeah, I think that's him

He’s the long snapper after all.

Buddyof mine played with him in Houston.

Hes a bad ass, and on a side note Pontbriand’s sister is smokin hot

That info is useless to me.
sorry i couldnt be of help...
One, I'm taken.

Two, what are the odds of me ever running in to his sister, or even having a clue who she is?

Long snapping into a garbage can from 30 yrds

vs

Throwing a baseball 90 mph a distance of 60 ft over a small plate.

Good luck with the totaching...
Crazy golf dad works, too
My Dad is crazy, and he golfs, but it hasn't helped my game.
Every team hasa stragey or a road map for success....Here is the Mariners...

Maybe banjo cat will make a return :D
Don't toy with us.
After reading the discussion at USSM

...for some reason I thought Teixeira was 2 years younger. I have to agree with Dave, while I don’t think it would be a disaster, that’s not the type of player I would risk paying $texas in his age 35 season.

Ehhh....

This is probably just me being dumb and has nothing to do with the premise of your comment, but I’ve really grown tired of the ”$texas” meme. Is it just me?

I hardly ever see it here, so it's still not obnoxious to me.

I liked always liked $Pujols to describe an exceptionally good hitter, but it never caught on.

$poo holes
Much better!

I don’t know if I’m “tired” of the $texas meme, but I usually find it unnecessary.

Funny part is he always spells it correctly!!

Heh

Only a matter of time before “€texas” makes an appearance.

£texas is double $texas
They only offered Felix ¥texas

:-(

Damn you guys and your fancy college thinking.
I was hoping for something like

%sexat

Yeah, but the pound symbol is way more fruity.
You some kind of expert on fruity?
Aren't we all?
I did work as a produce man for a while when I was younger.

But that was at Albertson’s, not the way you’re thinking (sicko). :)

I've been so steeped in perl and php lately

that $texas means something very different to me now.

OK, we're going to pay Teixeira eleventy billion dollars.
Dave's right

but I don’t care. The team’s going to throw money around all stupid-like so under those conditions the least they could do is throw money around all stupid-like in the direction of somebody good.

I am glad I am a fan of this team.
Better than being a Yankees fan.
Dave showed me his argument this morning

I think the main divergence in opinion is in how he will age.

Hopefully he ages better than Paul Konerko.
Or Richie Sexson or Jose Vi-oh, crap.
If there's a reason

We shouldn’t expect him to age normally, I’d love to hear it. My basic aging curve came from here.

Hot tar baths.
I'm just not convinced the decline comes in half win increments per year

If he hit his peak as sometime like a 2.25 wins over average as a 27 year old, at age 31 if you apply the linear weights value of 0.922 he’s lost a quarter of a win with the bat. Now I know that’s not rigorous and defence tends to decline fast, but losing 8.6% of your value a year? delta$LW between ages 33 and 28 is roughly -8.6%.

Although there's a big chance I've just completely misinterpreted something somewhere too.
Oh, I have. Whoops
i think i have got my image sizing fixed now...

Washburn recommends throwing people under the bus as the best training.
Doesn't get you much cardio, though
Depends how far you have to run to find a bus.
but it's a good upper body workout
Good for the flexor bundle as well.

That’s how Wash keeps throwing that amazing 84mph heat.

Maybe that's why Jarrod throws people under buses

he can only throw them under things his fastball can catch up to.

If he tried to toss em under a Ferrari like Felix would…

Wait a few months.

He’ll be throwing catchers under elderly people’s scooters.

I didn't know Vidro used a scooter
not quite a scooter...

Wow. Been a while since we broke out that pic.
Big contracts to 1B pretty much never work out

Whatever.

$poo holes
Unfortunately I don't see any Pujolses on the open market
You don't see players like in ANY market very often.
"players like THAT"

How did I miss an entire word? I’m brain-dead today.

It's not dead.

It’s just JI.

Does this mean I have AIDS?
Worse

AISD

I can think of about twenty things I can make from that acronym.

None of them are good.

an incredibly saucy dame?

much better than
acute infected scrotum disorder

That makes my balls hurt just reading it.
hypochondriac
Not really.

I just care about the twins that much.

acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Fail.

AISD. Try again.

Washburn has it.

“Apparently, I Suck” Disorder

Although he seems to be in denial.
It means you're on a DAIS.
Agreed

If we are gonna sign some huge contracts we might as well sign good people (Ichiro, Beltre) and not shitty guys (Washburn, Silva).

Problem is that the FO doesn't know the difference.
NY papers

reported that Mussina and Wang’s starts have been flipped, so now it’s Moose v. Felix and Wang v. Silva. Not that it matters one iota.

I’m lucky enough to be going to the Boogie Down for tonight and tomorrow’s games. Best possible outcomes I can think of? 1) A massively entertaining brawl 2) A large Stadium fire which purges the M’s dugout of all that is necessary (the Bronx is BURNING!) 3) Someone buries McLaren and Bavasi under the new stadium. You know, for luck.

What is the Boogie Down?
The Bronx
Learn something new every day.
This means we get a thread full of Wang jokes, right?

Or is that meme dead, too?

Wang and Dickey jokes have been run into the ground
As have Dick Pole jokes
Whoa, vintage
I always preferred the "Dick Ball" sports report.

Or a good ‘ol fashioned NASCAR race featuring Dick Trickle.

I've always been partial to former N.H. Representative Dick Swett

http://www.vis.org/crc/MemberTermInfo.aspx?p=297

But I loves me some shvetty balls.
Jack Glasscock.
That's Pebbly Jack Glasscock to you
Lost me on that one.

I have a cat named Willy who only has one eye though.

Johnny Dickshot.
Jack Blackcock
I am suspicious that this is not the name of a baseball player.
You mean you have never seen School of Cock?
Not sure that in my current movie lists...

Must have missed that one

Not exactly a title that makes me want to rent it.
Your loss
I'll just have to take your word for it.

I can’t see me walking in the door and saying “look what I rented honey!” and getting away with that movie.

How about Dick Armey?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Armey

I think Family Guy covered that.

Remember his wife, Vagina Coast Guard?

Uh, I know this is OT

but did we lose another FanPost? I don’t see the Felix Extension post up there anymore

Annoying
The post was, or the deleting FanPosts is?
I think he was referring to you.

:)

:(

Noooooooooooooooooooo…

The deleting of the fanpost

although it was mostly just a flame war anyway.

Are the SBN tech monkeys going to fix this.

or did they lie to me because they were afraid I was going to send them a letterbomb?

I don't think they would get your letterbomb.

That would require correctly spelling their address.

I handwrite my envolopes

My handwriting is as good as my typing is bad.

That's.... good?
If you like it when people make jokes about you being a woman...
But he writes using a glitter pen!
I used to do that for fun on history essays.
My handwriting is mostly backwards

It makes so much more sense that way. Stupid righties running the world.

Would banhammering him make you feel better?
We can add his unnamed ASU blog to our Jihad list
I like this idea.
I'm on the verge of major banhammering
It's been nice participating here.
You are on the short list of untouchables
Any chance I can get a long term contract, too?
The first person to type TWSS is banned.
Ironically, you just did so
(ducks)

Thingray fears the banhammer.

People in danger know who they are
If anyone wants to be banned

I found a banhammer lolcat that you might enjoy.

I'd enjoy the lolcat...

I don’t know why…

While I hate lolcats as a whole

the phrase “I can has(z)” is like nails on the internet chalkboard.

I see what you did there.

With the Arm & Hammer box.

Thats an awfully big hammer you got there fella
You might wanna put that away if you're planning on fighting crime today.
I like bananahammer better.
I don't honestly think I'm in danger.

I’m not, am I? I mean, I know I said nice things about Coors Light, but isn’t everyone allowed a mistake or two?

I think I'm in more danger than you are

I wanted to bring back Griffey

(whispers)

I want him back too, as long as he’s cheap and doesn’t play in the field much.

Um....Im a Ranger fan...I think i got the most to worry about...

(hides)

If it's hockey or baseball, you're screwed either way.
LOL....But if its Irish League soccer im OK
Irish league?

Also, fuck off Celtic.

It's Rangers' own fault
Fuck football.
Agreed.

at least until August.

I actually had a dream involving a sledgehammer and Ronaldo's right leg last night
that's a beautiful, wonderful dream
Did you have to clean up

After that dream?

The queen's football, or American football?
The former
I'd love to see the queen attempt a stepover
they at least proved it's hard to win with half your starting 11 injured.

good show assholes.

Scotland's been occupied by the Irish?
Up Cork City!
I'll miss you guys
Needs more gin.
Couldn't you just reinstate yourself?
I don't think so

I’ve always wanted to try to ban myself to see what would happen though.

At least you would still be able to humorously edit Jeff's USSM comments.
Jeff [is amazingly awesome]
That's exactly what it would be like.
Your always welcome on Neo-LL
You're
You're no longer welcome on NEO-LL
I saw the comment. I know your game.

You only wanted me to post there so you could moderate it.

And what a glorious game it will be.
no you won't, don't lie.
I'll pretend to miss you guys!
no you won't, don't lie.
I'll say I pretended to miss you guys!
Who are you going to say that to?
Squirrels
I still think he should change his user name to

House ObamaTron

I'll say it to them alright.

I have a lot to say to those rat-bastards.

In the space of two weeks in 2001

I killed one squirrel on my bike and one in a car. they’re all afraid of me now. Which makes me happy.

Only if the squirrels are online?

you like pictures, don't you?
A picture is worth a thousand words and i typr like shit....
I see what you did there
and that was unintentional
Hi there!

new fangled bows are lame
(mandatory 100lb halberd joke here)
Oh so wrong.

Compounds beat the shit out of recurves

You want a piece of me?

Oh hamburgers

:-(

How does it feel to be labeled freely available talent?
Kinda dirty, I'd imagine
And a little gassy.
Robert could bat third in that commenting order.

He would be what Ross Gload was to Kansas City.

Ok but Gomez bats ninth
Gomez would bat fifth

right behind the guy who gave us Mickey and the cello playing cat.

Sylar is my lineup protection?

Screw this I’m staying a back up at Field Gulls

Wrong sport stupid.
You're the backup football?
we can't all be stars.
No you fool

Backup Goalpost. Brett’s more of the football shape.

Baseball-Reference.com is telling me to tell you to fuck off
He has a liftime .824 OPS when batting third

It’s not quite as insulting as I intended.

Yay! Obliviousness is bliss!

As long as I remain unaware that Jeff hates me, I’m safe.

I feel like Elan.

Dont worry, Thingray, if you see me get whacked

its time for you to stick low…Until thenparty on!!

You mean it's not the rapture?
Series previews always seem to go off topic in record time.
How many ways are there to say

The Mariners will lose, and not very interestingly?

It's the speed that impresses me.

Not the action. The action is predictable.

They certainly do
Hopefully the Mariners and Rangers do well, i wont get to chance to follow baseball this weekend..

Lacrosse National Title Weekend!!! Time to be drunk for 3 days!!!

I seem to always be here to help.

I wonder why that is? Seems like I’m always bored when they come out for some reason.

The Mariners are a shitty topic anyways.
At least it will get interesting when the September callups happen.

Right?

Tui's super-exciting!
that's 3 months of not interesting to get there, though.
This might be the least appealing group of call-ups in some time
Well, we have covered, Irish, Squirrels, Bows, BanHammers, soccer, deep sanppers, the "school of Cock" and other assorted topics

Not a bad start to a series. Well rounded and cultured discussion of some of the little know facts in the world we live in.

and somehow, only one mention of beer, in the body of the post.

Unbelievable.

Wow....As an Irishman that offends me.
well, now you've gone and done it.

speaking of which, I was doing my budget and I’ve spent more on beer than I have on all other food products combined in 2008.

And the problem with that is...what again?
Problem?
That's what I thought.

Just wanted to make sure we were on the same page there.

Finally found some Rochefort 10 two nights ago. Man, that's pricey though.
The goal is for me to start drinking tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m the first game starts and not stop till 2:00 a.m.Sunday

Sunday may not be a good day

make sure to find a computer and start posting here

about noon on Saturday. Hilarity will indeed ensue.

Ill be in Houston. Now that ithink about it though, the bar may have wifi....

Humm, if im not on the close to be banned list yet,,,

Pussy

Brett and I are going to be drunk this entire weekend in Whistler

Thats just the start of the first day.

I dont know what will happen when i get to Houston tonight, or Sunday night…Just playing it by drunken ear

It's fashionable to hate the Yankees.

It is fashionable to hate A-rod. I try to stay fashionable and hate both. This may be the first series, though, that I will not be invested in a Mariner victory against New York.

It's not fashionable to hate NYY anymore

It’s Boston now. Get with the times.

By the Way, JI -

I was working on this for fun. Any thoughts?

But Rocks?
LL joke.
Ok, felt real stupid...
One of my prouder moments
explain, or Linky...
It was certainly a winner.
The one with just a spoon, you should put some cheese in his bowl

and the caption “You’re doing it wrong!”

I'll consider it, but I'm not fond of that meme.
It has its moments
I just think it would be funny with cheese in one of them

and I agree, it’s a meme that needs to be used correctly. I apologize for brain-deadedly trying to add it to your picture

No, I don't disagree with you at all.

It can be used well, and it might be good in the picture. I’m not just sure yet. I’ll play around with it later and see. It has to look good, too. So even if it works really well, if it messes up the picture too much it loses its appeal.

I had starving astronauts in mind.
So is the moon made of cheese or rocks?

My personal favorite is “Where does it specify the left feilders can’t ride unicorns? oh man that would totally helpRauls range”

What about
Please specify

Exactly where in the rule book it says that the home team cannot decide which rules will be used”

Best. Comment. Ever.

No kidding.

Where it the rule book does it say we cannot give ourselves 6 runs every time we want?

Or discount all the runs we don’t want scored?

I’m going to miss him….

I hope he comes back to LL someday

Can you imagine the Second Coming of F’nA’s? It would be glorious in so many ways.

I might even take a personal day to enjoy the trainwreck from home.

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