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Lookout Landing

5/24: Open Game Thread, Part 2

Hay is is Vitor artinez

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Hay is is Vitor artinez

TWICE!

So Kershaw's starting tomorrow for the Dodgers

Should be more fun than watching Washburn.

Shields - Cabrera. Be there or someplace else.
That game starts when our game ends
Which gives us time to watch the Rays.

I’ve thought things through.

I think I'll be watching that one.
It's says Billingsly, was it changed?
Beltre's OPS back north of .800

swell

bye bye Seattle.
5 pitches

Wow. And I thought we were bad against Floyd yesterday.

You were
Only after we got the lead really.

We’d been doing surprisingly well patience-wise up until that point. Then we inexplicably decided to let him stay in the game.

Hay is is Vitor artinez

I need a shortcut key for this.

Joe Saunders is not good

this is so stupid.

the Angels are stupid. I'm so sick of them. Almost as much as the Mariners.
They get away with it though :-(
He SHOULDN'T be good.

But he’s been nails his whole career when he’s not hurting (usually from end-of-season arm fatigue). Why is a mystery.

No, he *isn't* good

at least not relative to the rest of the Major League starting pitcher player pool.

3.94 FIP

That seems decent enough to me. And as far as stuff goes, he’s actually got pretty decent stuff. I wasn’t clear on why you were so down on him when last year he was 97% similar to Eric Bedard in terms of his pitch speed and movement according to Pitch F/x. He’s actually got a slightly better fastball, though his curve and changeup don’t have the same kind of bite that Bedard had last year.

Unsustainably low HR/FB
Is it really unsustainable if it's been like that his entire career?
Yes

His career hasn’t been that long.

What if every other pitcher on his team is also the same way?
Then it's a park factor thing, not a talent thing
rec'd. now that's funny.
4.82 career tRA*
Which part?

2007 Joe Saunders

2007 Eric Bedard

Joes fastball is about .5 MPH faster with similar break. His other pitches are similar speeds but have less break on them. Overall, 97.26% similarity.

Yeah, those are useful comparisons

Wandy Rodriguez, Rich Thompson and Patrick Misch are all basically the same thing as Erik Bedard.

Saunders StS% on his curveball, 2007: 3.2%

Bedard StS% on his curveball, 2007: 31%

See, exactly similar?

Wait, what’s that small round dot looking thing?

In pure stuff, yeah

One thing Pitch F/x demonstrates is just how big a difference command makes. As well has how true “game of inches” is.

No
I'm not sure what the point of those monosyllabic responses is.

It doesn’t make you seem intelligent, which I know you are, nor does it address what I said.

Those PITCHf/x comparisons are experimental and generally don't tell you very much
That doesn't change the validity of what I said though.

If you go through and look at all of the pitchers in MLB, you find guys who are horrible with fairly good stuff (2007 Ervin Santana) while guys with the same stuff are much better. When you go through the whole of it, I think using Pitch F/x to show how command affects pitchers with similar pure stuff is valid.

It also demonstrates how an inch or two more break on your curve can change it from “meh” to “best pitch in the MLB” the way it does for Joe vs Bedard.

Are either of those wrong?

On the right path, but you need more information

like, say, pitch sequencing and pitch deception.

I'm not trying to write dissertation on this

I leave that to more intelligent people, with better data access and manipulation skills than I have, like you or Graham or Matthew. I KNOW I’m making generalizations. I’m having a discussion on a message board, and I think that in this realm such generalizations are appropriate given limitations on space and time available to me to make them.

But the generalizations are either wrong or uselessly vague.

so what’s the point of making them?

We just established that those weren't wrong

And I don’t really think they were all that vague. What I was getting at was clear. They didn’t address every possible ramification I could think of, but they were general truths that are valid points.

But they're not because they're missing too much information
they were general thruths in that both Bedard and Saunders throw

a fastball and a curveball. Everything else is useless or misleading without proper context.

Hey. They're also LEFTIES. :-P
This isn't a board
Thread? Blog?

I dunno, what would you call it?

Blog

sorry, I’m sensitive to the “message board” term.

Message boards touched Jeff in dirty places as a child
He get trying to get into Massage Boards
Stupid Professor Happiness
XD

Fine. Blog it is then.

You are ignoring several parts of what goes into "stuff"

such as consistency of delivery and deception.

Saunders: 13% curveballs

Bedard: 35% curveballs

Bedard's curveball is (was?) one of the best pitches in baseball

Saunders’ curveball is not.

Yeah.

That’s why Bedard last year was one of the best pitchers in baseball, while Saunders is simply a good/decent MLB pitcher.

Saunders is a #4 whose 2008 ERA is one of the biggest flukes in the league
I don't think you can reason with some people....
I guess that depends on your definition of a number 4.

I’d say closer to a number 3 myself.

Well he's about whatever you consider Carlos Silva to be
I think he's better than Silva.

While his K-Rate at the moment is comparable to Silva’s career, his own Career K-Rate is higher.

But so is his walk rate

in terms of expected run output, they are pretty similar, even if they get there in slightly different ways.

Walk rate is partially a function of command though, and Joe is still young enough to improve

Joe also had his share of bad luck, especially last year, with a higher-than usual line drive rate, a high babip, and a low LOB%. This season all of those trends have reversed. In a way, this season represents a partial progression to the mean for him.

No it doesn't

This season represents a massive fluke.

sustainable things Joe Saunders is above average at:

-getting groundballs (barely)
-having his classmates shot at

Not sure about the latter

sample size

what, 33 isn't enough for you?
I still say that his HR/FB rate isn't that unsustainable in Angel stadium

It certainly hasn’t been for every other Angels pitcher.

and we've looked into that.

it’s a fluke.

You say that, but then THT

comes out with studies like this one come out, telling me that Angel Stadium has been nearly as hard to hit HR out of as PETCO the last 5 years, and I start to wonder.

We've accounted for the park factor

It’s still a fluke

Even if this is true

are you trying to give Saunders credit for a park effect?

No, I'm saying that as long as he's an Angel, it won't change.

At least not to the degree that you guys seem to expect it to.

I expect it to change a great degree from its current 2.whatever
This sub-thread was about his homerun rate.
His HR/FB is 6.0

That is unsustainably low.

Accounting for the Anaheim HR/FB factor it should be about 9
9? .94 Park factor takes it from

11 to 9?

Depends on what you mean

I was talking HR/FB, including popups. Per OFB it’s closer to 11.

Ah. So it's more than a .94 park factor if you look at all flyballs?
It's a .87 factor

It just translates into 0.935 because he plays half his games away

Also, to answer your question:

Calculating and applying it rigorously does indeed yield/use 0.87, but the # of outfield flies is actually raised by ANA depressing popups/fly

Okay wait

If MLB average for HR/FB is 11% than how does Angels stadium adjust that to 9% for an Angels pitcher? It doesn’t seem like a .94 adjustment, even if it’s only OFFBs would do that, since IFFB only account for like 5% of Flyballs.

That’s what I’m looking for here.

MLB average for HR/OFB was like 11.5% last year

MLB average for HR/FB was closer to 9.4%ish.

Also, i am doing a terrible job of explaining what the hell I'm talking about

I apologise for any confusion

No, now it's starting to make sense

in the PAST you’ve done a horrible job and that resulted in our first conversation. :-P

Blah blah blah your needs
Ah. Okay, now this is starting to make more sense

I think I found the disconnect in our previous discussions on this. I was operating on the thought that 11.5 was for all flyballs, and that therefore the HR/FB rates of the Angels pitchers weren’t just low but UNREASONABLY low as a group, and that therefore there must be a reason for it.

Let's all be friends
Anywho, I have an Angels game to go watch.
But even if it goes up to 8.8

like last year, that’s not going to bring his ERA back up to 4.whatever.

LD%: 12.5

That’s the real difference here

Pretty much.

I don’t think he can keep that up, though it’s a welcome change from 20.

Yeah, he can't

That’s not sustainable at all.

Like I said.

Anything that isn’t 3% above MLB average is okay with me.

Yes it will
LD% is more important
The LD% is wildly unsustainable
Yes

It’s just more to blame for his success than HR/FB is.

So in conclusion

his success is unsustainable.

I don't think I ever disagreed with this.
I wasn't disagreeing with you, heh.
at 0.87

which is halved for the road games, and huh, you get the 0.94 factor that we arrived at. which is a bit of a far cry from the 0.65 or whatever it was you were claiming.

Yes. But his stats last year were a fluke in the opposite direction.

According to just about everything you guys have been telling me about the average rates of the things I mentioned, he should have been better last year.

Sure, but that doesn't mean he should be good this year
No, not really.

His BABIP was a little bit low, but his LOB% was fine and he’s been lucky on getting Ks and avoiding walks.

I thought getting K's and avoiding walks were the whole point.

Good pitchers do them and bad pitchers don’t.

good pitchers miss bats and throw strikes

Saunders is below average at both of those.

Why?

ERA in the mid-4’s, peripheral ERA in the mid-4’s.

This year he’s just flipping out.

How to be the best hitter ever by Joe's Tracer: Never swing at any pitch

you will have a 1.000 OBP from walks.

They should switch over to Adrian's Tracer
A-Rod walks up to Mims?

Really?

Oh man

I remember him explaining that once… He said he hadn’t even heard it, but one of his friends told him it was a good song… and so he started using it as his up to bat song.

Hay is is Vitor artinez
time to twist the key!!
Unfortunately reverse gear is engaged
What if we lock the door?
depends, are we on the inside or the outside?
Hm speaking of umpire issues

Anyone else find it amusing that former SteAler Joey Porter is bitching about the Patriots and calling them cheaters?

no, not really.

He speaks truth.

Maybe 'ironic' is a better word.

But I get you.

Hay is is I can't do this anymore
Hay is is jI
Hay is is Mallio Ordoyez
.....

(Hey this is Erik Bedard)

Too many words
He's Canandian.
Gameday just called Mussina's fastball a changeup

also, what a terrible pitch to throw on 0-2.

Lopez is awesome
What unprofessional hitting
hush Dave, Jon Lester sucks

also, wow that was high

Richie is going to come out of the dugout and charge the ump
everyone on this team missed their calling

they’d be excellent cricketeers

Uh-oh, Joba love-fest starts next inning
Well he's really good
Sure, he's good

I just don’t look forward to Kay and Cone ramming it down my earholes

hahahahaha losing Casey is DET's problem
Sounds like something Bill would say
hence the laughter
LOPEZ CAN'T FOCUS IN CLOSE GAMES ON DEFENSE
SEASON IS ALREDAY LOST DOESNT COUNT
Silva missed his spot by about 4 feet on that pitch.
hay is is Vitor artinez
You just can't quit
Hay is is Vitor artinez
It's catching on!
Hay is is Vitor artinez
Hay is is Vitor artinez
LATE
I'm either tripping balls at this point

or you’re bored.

Not mutually exclusive
Hay is is Vitor artinez
fuck i hate waking up in the 6th inning
I hate it when Silva does the same
Joba against the Mariners

It’s like the honor student picking on the retarded kid in the classroom.

Hay is is Vitor artinez
I feel like I'm missing out by watching this on TV
No you're pretty much getting the idea
i can't watch the m's without LL
We have by far the stronger franchise
I can post on LL without watching the m's
I have been doing this a lot lately
CONCENTRATION
You'd think there's only one way to use Dickey, but

Mariners have other plans for Dickey

LACK OF CHEMISTRY!!

LOPEZ NEEDS MORE FRIENDS

/fans
There is two on here yes?

Im one of them.

SEE WHAT LACK OF CHEMISTRY DOES?!?!
needs more grease
Strasburg!
Lopez helps us by not helping us!
A-Rod hurts the team by striking out
That replay of Raul charging the camera would make a great gif
I'm so glad defense cannot hurt our team.
Hay is is Vitor artinez
Hay is is Vitor artinez

I AM GETTING VERY TIRED OF THIS

I don't understand this meme.
You don't have MLB.tv
zenitra ritov si si Yah
Zenitra Ritov sounds like an Eastern European girl I'd like to sleep with
Eastern European girls are so hot they make me sexist.
Hostel was awesome until the dying
Any movie which kills off hot chicks does not have me in the target audience
si si

Yah!

Please don't go to sleep anytime soon
What if she looked like a backwards Victor Martinez?
as hot as he is ugly?

zowooga!

I am not sure what this woman would look like
If it's the opposite of Victor she's be ridiculously eloquent and attractive.
I want to fly to Slovakia
Or Munich
Shut up
Why don't you like Munich? :-/
Added bonus of good beer
I hear Allidap Etneciv is pretty hot
And quite a good baseball player
But not as good as Srednuas Eoj
Not sexy
You're saying that Padilla is?!
Neither am I

But the thought was obviously enough to put you off Zenitra

Suck it Chamberlain
Is Vitor artinez related to JI

M THOME?

Vitor artinez is IJ

Can’t speak, demon typist.

That would've been a strike to Ichiro

Hay is is america
Man, I think that was the fastest I've ever seen Ibanez run
He hates Strasburg
Silva had two strikeouts today

both of them A-Rod.

How queer.

Upon further review

Marge uttering “Here we go again” is actually from the episode “Sideshow Bob’s Last Gleaming”.

I am sure that no one cares, but I don’t like to be on the record as having made an incorrect Simpsons reference without taking corrective action.

I do not care, but I appreciate your dedication.
I don't care, but well done anyway
I find myself using MLB.tv more as a radio than a video feature these days
This is exactly the way I use it.
Why not just use MLB Radio?
Need video to make Raul gifs
Yeah, that makes sense

But you can do that from archive… during the game you might as well listen to Dave…

Hay is is Vitor artinez
That would be sorely missed
OH SHIT I GET IT NOW.

It’s from those ads that play in btw. innings. Where Martinez sounds like a manure salesman with a mouthful of sample.

Two questions, FWIW:

1.) WTF is this whole “Vitor Artinez” thing about? A series of embarrassing typos by someone with a shit keyboard?

2.) What, realistically, is the next step for the M’s in terms of things getting worse? Because they will get worse. They have to. What next.

1) mlb.tv thing

2) injuries

//indians11.jpg” width=300>

^^ this is is not victor artinez
Hey look, a preview button!
FAIL
fuck you all, i'm stoked for Griffey and Ramirez's milestones

I can't wait for my first Yahoo Live Set
June 6th, 2009:

With the first choice in the 2009 draft, the Mariners take Nobody McFucknut LHP from Pepperdine.

July 14th, 2008: Mariners ownership fires Bill Bavasi, hires Dave Littlefield as GM.
Mine would make me much much angrier
Mine is necessary for yours to come true.
No No No...Meet the new GM of the Seattle Mariners.

I propose this no-nonsense candidate

I've heard McFucknut profiles well in a relief role.
NIce fastball

Will make a good set up guy.

Oh, sweet! "In play, run(s)!"
Raul is bad at Defense
Rhodes Yankee Stadium meltdown in full effect
Rhodes has always been so good at Yankee Stadium though
I forgot that we have Morrow on this team
You won't after I get around to that post I have germinating in my brain.
Have Silva kill Washburn, get Silva arrested, start Morrow?
Or have Washburn molest Silva's daughter, have them kill each other

Then Start Morrow and RRS

Why is Tits spared your wrath?
I am not sure

Tits will get DFA when Aumont is called up.

Well....no

but I don’t know how your brain works. Mine is stupefied by what we could do (done) with just a small break here and/or there.

Does it involve a certain UW graduate
no
But it could
not this kind of post
I wait with bated breath
It still amazes me

that some people still have never heard of Listerine.

Yes, part of this disaster's awesomenes is now eminently avoidable it was
Good thing we didn't draft anyone more prominent
Looks like another 5+ run blowout in effect, gentlemen.

Perhaps we’ll set a record for consecutive games.

Run away, Beltre

Run far far away.

just not to LA
I just want him to be happy
key hole'd!
You know what these game threads need? More gallows humor.
capital idea ol' chum
Three Utah miners, two WTC employees, and a VT student walk into a bar

I’m just kidding, they’re dead

This was totally sweet.
I'm totally thinking Grand Slam here.
I'm totally using "totally" too much, in total.
all encompassingly, that is true.
does this recover my hedberg% for the game?
I like Raisin Bran

One guy came to my house, and suddenly my Raisan Bran disappeared.

I always wondered to myself…who would steal a box of Raisin Bran?

So Ichiro has given up
confirmed.
I don't blame him
Wasn't that apparent from his comments last night?
He just wants to drink a beer and boo.
That's what I'm doing
this team hasn't been the same since Baek left

he was a leader in the clubhouse

Real joker, that Baek
about Victor aartinez

that whole commercial is an ad for mlb.tv, no?

and no one can see it except for subscribers.

did the mariners approve the commercial?

Yeah the whole thing is wildly stupid
The commercial is promoting the Derek Jeter games
Erik Bedard is not getting the job done

”...mmm…”

This game is still going?
If Bavasi's such a nice guy who wants to make his players happy

why did he force Ichiro to stay with Seattle for the rest of his productive career?

If Bavasi was a nice guy he wouldn't continue to hurt Mariners fans like this
Whos hurt more?

Mariner fans or Dave Sampson?

Hay is is Vitor artinez
Great news everyone!

With that ground-rule double, the Mariners have now tied the Cardinals for most doubles given up, with 120! I knew they could do it!

The Cardinals have a good defense and we do not

I don’t get it.

You obviously have forgotten who pitches for that team.
Fire Every Fucking Body

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

That was an 84mph fastball

uhh

Yankee stadium PFX gun?
The rest of his fastballs were 87-89
The one pitcher who's done me no wrong this year is about to hit the D/L >:(
Hopefully it's of the 60-day variety so he can go the fuck home
Just got in from running to the store

God Dammit.

That was a long run to the store
This is last year's Hope Destroyer slump all over again
better early than late
at least they're getting it out of the way early this time
There were like three of those
Our inability to make outs is becoming legendary
I would argue that we're rather terrific at making outs
You know what I meant. Defensive outs. But point taken.
Hay is is Vitor artinez
C'mon I want some more runs here
The important thing is that Vidro hit a FB

So he’s clearly not the problem!

Clement has 5 XBH in the past 4 games
let's trade Clement and Burke for Victor artinez
He couldn't produce in the big leagues where it really counts

/Baker

But he doesn't finish up the left overs in the clubhouse.
Justin Morneau looks like John Cena

Word Life.

I am no longer a Morneau fan.
You mean you are a fan neau Mor

/life

Good way to put it.

Or,

Mauer > Morneau like Mantaur > John Cena in coolness factor.

well he IS the franchise.
On amusing aside, look at where Gameday puts that second called strike to Ensberg.
Uh

Ensburg is Ichiro now?

PITCHf/x has also given up
would you K already Jeremy?
Does losing by only 8 runs count as a good performance?

I’m not sure any more

I still like Reed
Reed will end his career
Farnsworth's?
yes, that's what i meant

nice AB

joe's tracer says: 1 of the 12 pitches a strike.
Joe's tracer can go suck a fuck.
THAT AB DESERVES A STARTING JOB IN LF!
Reed isn't a true Mariner

True Mariners give up.

Don't put it in play you fool
really impressive ab

Reed for hitting coach

Oh, and LF

Golden sombrero time...
eh maybe not
Standard game for Richie
hez onyl god when teh game is over!!1
not this time bitches

Vidro and Sexson have both gone yard today.
bought themselves another 2 months of playing time?
Can I just say I love JReed

(I like Richie too) hope he starts hitting “respectably” (above .240)

"Is Kyle Farnsworth going to be as effective as Joba Chamberlain?"
WE back north of 1%

How I missed this territory.

hard to breathe up here, air's too thin
No wait, typo

sorry, it never cleared 1% there.

Mariners pitching: 6.3 K, 3.7BB, 43% GB

Nationals pitching: 6.4K, 3.8BB, 45% GB

Mariners pitchers I have heard of: Everyone

Nats pitchers I have heard of: Odalis Perez? Er… Ross Detwiler?

You should know who Bergmann and Lannan are...they have a lot of talent.

Lannan’s been quietly putting together a fantastic rookie season.

I know who most of them are

I’ve had to copy all of their stats into a spreadsheet multiple times

John Lannan is better than Joe Saunders
He goes today against the Brewers. Hope all turns out well.

He’s one of the few bright spots this season.

amazing what not giving up homeruns will do for you
I heart groundballers
How the fuck does Joe Saunders have a 178 ERA+ and a 1.057 WHIP?
Because fuck us
I would also note that Lannan has better K/9 and BB/9 numbers than Joe "WTF" Saunders
I'd like to point out that yes we know he's better.
Yeah, I forgot who I'm talking to here.
And that's only because the Nats have one extreme groundballer (Hill) and two piles of suck in Chico and Perez

Bergmann and Lannan actually strike out lots of guys.

Also note: the Nationals are a better team than the M’s right now even though nobody in their outfield can hit worth a shit.

What the hell happened to you Elijah?
Karma's a bitch, man.
Gibson hasn't been great either, but damn.

I had Dukes pegged for some good things this year, just as our right fielder.

Hysterical

Chad Cordero is the only pitcher on Washington’s staff making more than $2m.

And he's probably out for the entire season.

Our close now is Jon Rauch. Tallest pitcher in ML history, actually.

His nickname: “The Wookie.”

Hay is is Vitor artinez
MLB daht TV
Hay is is Vitor artinez

MLB.TV

Can you record that clip at all?

I am curious to see it now.

it's worth the $20

best money i’ve spent on something mariners related all year

^^ that was a reply to Fin
A silver spoon to gouge your eyes out?

That too would be worth the $20

??

okay, my dad paid for my subscription

feel better?

Sorry

Not to gouge your eyes out, rather, just to gouge out the eyes of all mariners fans… That was a mariners insult, not a you insult

my dad didn't really pay for my subscription

victor artinez seduced me

i’m going to gouge out my eyes out now, no offense taken

Vitor artinez isn't Mariner-related
mlb.tv is though

i got it to watch mariners games

HiiVA is a byproduct

You're doing it wrong
let's try this again

I forgot to capitalize the A – i caught that after.

“You’re doing it wrong”

Way to run it out, tubs
The only good Molina was a Creedence Clearwater Revival song.
oh fuck you blue
Fucking home ump

He just wanted to go home. What a dickwad.

We're about to be leading the Strasburg standings!
Its another Strasburg christmas
Best ending ever
The best ending ever wasn't an ending
that A) wasn't even close to a strike

and B) wasn’t strike 3

he better go yard now
Wow that was awesome
CHARGE THE MOUND
Shit's about to go down dickface
it would be the most hilarious thing ever if we came back and won now

we won’t, not even close, but man…

Bobby Abreu went to the Vitor artinez School of English
Funny what having a defense does for the Toronto pitching staff
How the fuck am I still awake?
Better find some way to keep it going
my friend once went 72 hours without sleep
Rage?
He's still all hot and bothered from the meth
summations do that to me.
Geoff:
Another day, another pitiful performance turned in by the Mariners, this time a 12-6 defeat to the New York Yankees. Seattle made things interesting until the sixth inning, when Jose Lopez pretty much torpedoed their chances with an error that cost the team two unearned runs.

Lopez didn’t give up the ensuing home run.

We swing of error: -1.1%
WE swing of homer: -18.3%

Watch more baseball, statboy
Good thing I slept through this
When I was drunk last night

I think I may have keyholed my laundry hamper

I hope you used protection

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