Pitcher Wins Are Stupid, Part 20

by Matthew on Jun 9, 2008 12:23 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Coming into play today, the American League lead in wins is shared by three people with nine a piece:

Mike Mussina, tRA = 5.65 (AL SP avg: 4.70). Mussina possess the worst missed bat rate amongst major league starting pitchers.
Joe Saunders, tRA = 4.02. Now 4.02 is nothing to sneeze at, but Andy Sonnanstine has a tRA of 4.14 and 4/5s of Toronto's rotation is below 4 (that's awesome). Joe Saunders also possess a 6.2% missed bat rate, well below average. He also throws more pitches outside the zone than average, gets less called strike and less foul strikes than average. He deserves his below average K rate, but he also deserves an above average BB rate which he has so far avoided.
Cliff Lee, tRA = 2.85. Legitimately awesome this year; he's lumped in with Mike Mussina and Joe Saunders.

Would you rather have that group, or say, the trio with eight wins a piece:

Roy Halladay, tRA = 3.11
Daisuke Matsuzaka, tRA = 4.67
Ervin Santana, tRA = 3.36

Wins are stupid.

0 recs | 12 comments

Comments

How did Roy Halladay get 8 wins?

He has three complete game losses. And Toronto can’t hit. And they’re badly managed. Case in point -

This weekend, down 9-1 going into the 9th inning against Baltimore, the Jays manage to get their first 5 batters to reach base (2 by BBs). So now it’s 9-3, the bases are loaded, and there are still no outs. This is suddenly a winnable game despite the six run deficit.

The count runs to 2-0 on the next hitter, Vernon Wells, and this exchange takes place in the commentary box:

Jesse Barfield: Do you turn Vernon lose here? Do you give him the green light to swing?
Rance Mulliniks: Absolutely! You have to give Vernon the chance the swing the bat, here.

WHAT? A grand slam still leaves you down by 2 runs, lets the next pitcher (probably the closer) pitch without runners behind him, and isn’t a guaranteed outcome. Wells should have been taking on the next pitch (an outside fastball he lifted to right for a sac fly).

The Jays lost 9-5.

If Baltimore is going to give you a cheap victory, TAKE IT!

Llewdor - June 9, 2008 reply

Roy Halladay is really good, that's how.

Matthew - June 9, 2008 reply

Oh, and let me guess.

The Jays pitcher with a tRA above 4 is A.J. Burnett, right?

Llewdor - June 9, 2008 reply

No, Litsch

Matthew - June 9, 2008 reply

I deserve to be wrong for trusting their relative ERAs.

Llewdor - June 9, 2008 reply

If I may add that wins are stupid, but not as stupid as saves (Part XLIIVI):

John Smoltz is a comparable pitcher to Bert Blyleven (yeah I know Blyleven’s a dead meme, and the HOF is stupid, shut up). Smoltz was a great pitcher who has had some rotten luck as far as his W-L record is concerned. Where as Smoltz has had some bad luck, Blyleven is the crown prince of bad luck: he was a dominating pitcher that could barely keep his record above .500. He would be an automatic Hall of Famer had he just 13 more wins (That’s just ~.6 wins more per season over the span of his career!), but as it stands he has basically has no chance of being elected.

Smoltz has recorded only 210 wins, but he is unique becuase has also racked up 150 saves. He is the only pitcher to be a excellent starter, then a dominating closer and return to the rotation and resume his dominance. In the minds of people who vote, Smoltz’s 150 saves make up for his “shortcomings”: He never was the best pitcher on ihs team, or in the league during his prime, only once was he a 20 game winner, he rarely won more than 15, often posted double digit loss totals, and is nowhere close to 300 career wins. However, since he has those saves, he’s a first ballot, slam dunk, no doubt about it HOFer.

Are people really this fucking stupid? How is throwing one inning just a difficult as throwing 7 or 8? Why does the highest individual honor the game has to offer based on a bunch of stupid bullshit?

Had Smoltz been a a starter from 2002-04 and racked up ~70 wins, there’s a decent chance (even playing his whole career with one team, and being part of a dynasty) that he would end up in limbo with Blyleven.

JI - June 9, 2008 reply