The boring first segment of our two-part annual tradition. Everybody likes report cards, right? Right?
...anyway...
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Kenji Johjima
Performance: .191 EqA
Grade: D-. Hasn't hit, hasn't played defense, losing playing time to a guy hitting .165. He's been woefully unlucky, but the power is totally absent. This is a 32 year old catcher with no power whose three year extension has yet to kick in. Bill Bavasi probably dies a little inside every time someone suggests this was his idea.
Richie Sexson
Performance: .250 EqA
Grade: D-. Didn't hit, didn't play defense, lost playing time to a guy hitting .217. A little unlucky, a lot bad. Did have a .370 OBP between when he changed his stance and when he got cut, which is hilarious.
Jose Lopez
Performance: .260 EqA
Grade: C. Welcome to average. I don't buy the concerns that Lopez is a terrible defensive second baseman quite yet, but he's not a great one either, and he also doesn't walk or hit for much power. Remember when people thought he'd be a star?
Yuniesky Betancourt
Performance: .225 EqA
Grade: F. Yuni sucks. Sucks sucks sucks. Trade his ass.
Adrian Beltre
Performance: .272 EqA
Grade: B+. If you can't tell, I'm grading people on how well they've played, not on the results they've been getting. Beltre's hit the ball like an upper-third third baseman, and he's played defense like an upper-quarter. The only thing keeping him from being a complete player is stuff like this. Hell of a player who continues to fly under too many a radar.
Raul Ibanez
Performance: .271 EqA
Grade: C-. The fact that he has the highest OPS in the lineup is damning with faint praise, and it's not like his range is getting any better. As a DH I'd call him a B-/C+, but that defense is still dragging him down. Trade please. I'm curious.
Ichiro
Performance: .280 EqA
Grade: B+. His core performance hasn't really changed all that significantly from what it's been in the past; Ichiro's batting line is just subject to BABIP fluctuation more than almost anybody else's in the league. Offensively, he's fine (although he could use a couple more homers). It's the defense that's making me wonder whether he'd be more deserving of a straight B, though. Ichiro's never really excelled in many of the metrics, and subjectively I've seen him make some uncharacteristic mistakes. Whatever the case, he's the least of our worries.
Brad Wilkerson
Performance: .238 EqA
Grade: F. I didn't know toaster settings went this high.
Jose Vidro
Performance: .198 EqA
Grade: F. Vidro's luck has done a complete 180, as his BABIP currently stands at a paltry, unsustainable .229. Give him a little regression and oh hey he still totally blows. Might - might - be the most finished hitter in baseball.
Wladimir Balentien
Performance: .211 EqA
Grade: F. Not that it really changed what I think of him as a player, but I don't know if Wlad could've had a less impressive month and a half.
Jeff Clement
Performance: .212 EqA
Grade: D-. The flashes of power have been nice, but he's swung at too many pitches out of the zone, struck out entirely too often, and hasn't looked that good behind the plate. A work in progress.
Jeremy Reed
Performance: .238 EqA
Grade: C-. Reed is one of only three players in baseball with at least 100 innings in the outfield who've caught every ball hit into their zone. However, the other two are Marlon Anderson and Justin Huber, which makes me think this is a lot more meaningless than I initially assumed. Reed's been a little better than his numbers at the plate, and his defense is fine, which makes him an acceptable everyday player as long as he's cheap. But if and when he goes and re-injures his wrist, this also isn't a guy you really fret about losing. He's just sort of there until he isn't.
Rest of the Bench
Performance: .240 EqA
Grade: D+. When Miguel Cairo is your default Sexson replacement, you're in so many worlds of trouble that you basically have your own galaxy of bad. The only thing even remotely saving this group is Willie's peculiar OBP.
Felix
Performance: 3.96 tRA
Grade: B. He's received some regression in all the right places, but the drop in groundballs and the increase in walks make for two pretty nasty red flags. If recent starts tell us anything, though, he's trending in the right direction, which could make for a fun second half.
Erik Bedard
Performance: 4.69 tRA
Grade: C-. Grounders? Down. Health? Way down. Walks? Up. Massively disappointing.
Carlos Silva
Performance: 5.03 tRA
Grade: D+. I have no interest in ever having a good thing to say about Carlos Silva. Fortunately for me, Silva appears in no rush to force my hand.
Jarrod Washburn
Performance: 5.00 tRA
Grade: D+. All things considered, it's kind of remarkable how consistent he's been over the years. There's no guessing with Washburn. Over a long enough period of time, you can be almost certain about what he'll provide. In the event that some GM of a contending team considers two months to be a long enough period of time, Jarrod should probably be prepared to pack his bags.
Miguel Batista
Performance: 7.31 tRA
Grade: F. I don't care if Batista's a "thinking man's pitcher" who writes novels and poetry. He's hurt the team pretty severely by trying to pitch his way through pain, and that makes him a God damn idiot. His writing sucks anyway.
JJ Putz
Performance: 4.95 tRA
Grade: D. A lot of the problem has been health, but then, health is a problem. When people tried to forecast how the 2008 Mariner season would play out, JJ going down early played a prominent role in none of them.
Brandon Morrow
Performance: 3.77 tRA
Grade: A. I don't care about those last few home runs. Brandon Morrow has played at the highest level of any Mariner all season long. Definitely the best story of the year to date.
Sean Green
Performance: 3.54 tRA
Grade: A. Okay, so Green's also been amazing. His 3.85 GB/FB is the highest in baseball among pitchers with 40+ innings. It's a wonder nobody ever talks about him, considering whenever Riggleman looks at the bullpen Green's is the only face he can see.
Arthur Rhodes
Performance: 4.5 tRA
Grade: B-. If that seems like a high tRA for someone with such a good K/BB ratio, it's because Rhodes has allowed a nearly unprintable amount of line drives. Still, he's gotten the job done over a small sample of innings, which should help us bring in some team's #8 prospect or something in the coming weeks.
RRS
Performance: 5.13 tRA
Grade: C. The tRA's skewed by RRS' uninspiring two starts, but he's still taken a step back from last year due to an increase in balls and line drives. Even so, the man just oozes appeal. Felix will forever be #1 in my heart, but the gap between second and third is far, far longer than the gap between first and second. Put him in the rotation for good already. Find out. What would be the harm?
RA Dickey
Performance: 4.77 tRA
Grade: C-. Dickey's been worse as a starter than as a reliever, but I don't know whether this should be expected or not what with the whole knuckleballer thing, so I'll just say that he's shown flashes of usefulness that warrant a more thorough investigation. He's pitched well enough to deserve the opportunity.
Mark Lowe
Performance: 4.57 tRA
Grade: C. The fastball is hard and the changeup is outstanding, but Lowe's capable of walking whoever he wants at the drop of a hat. He's a lot like 2007 Brandon Morrow in that regard, only with twice as many pitches. An increase in strike rate from 62% to 64% would make Lowe many more millions of dollars than he's on pace to earn in his career.
The Rest
Performance: 5.06
Grade: C-. Remember how we were supposed to go from George Sherrill to Eric O'Flaherty without missing too many beats?
Managers
Performance: 37-58
Grade: F.
0 recs | 160 comments
The Mariners can still come back.
If they win 30 in a row and the Angels lose 30 in a row, we’ll be in first.
Coach Owens - July 16, 2008
You're forgetting about the Rangers and A's
SethGrandpa - July 16, 2008
Coach!!!
katal - July 16, 2008
Yeah,
this guy’s a tough grader.
Kenji’s defense is stellar.
Patrick517 - July 16, 2008
Wlad! is taking after his old man with those grades.
Robert - July 16, 2008
I see your grading isn't subject to grade inflation the way that most colleges are these days
But you are definitely right about most of this team sucking this year.
Fin - July 16, 2008
I for one hate grade inflation
If everyone is above average, then isn’t everyone just average?
Gomez - July 16, 2008
Wow that's depressing
phil333 - July 16, 2008
Damn you Brandon Morrow for breaking the curve
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
I know it's kind of fun to pile on Yuni right now, but
has he really been worse than Johjima? I know it is harder to measure catcher defense than SS, but Yuni’s bat isn’t as bad a Joh’s. Yuni probably deserves a D- or Joh and Sexson deserve F’s.
Jed MC - July 16, 2008
Yuni has the least walks, and I believe least pitches seen/PA.
Though I believe Johjima is like 6th to last.
LantermanC - July 16, 2008
How did Johjima not earn an F?
katal - July 16, 2008
His batted balls have been better than his results
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Somebody should compute the team GPA
I’m way to lazy though
Edgar for Pres - July 16, 2008
Team GPA = 1.54, D+/C-
Kenji D- 0.666
Richie D- 0.666
Loafie C 2
Yuni F 0
Ichi B+ 3.333
Jeremy C- 1.666
Raul C- 1.666
KA B+ 3.333
Clement D- 0.666
Wlad F 0
Bench D+ 1.333
Felix B 3
Bedard C- 1.666
Silva D+ 1.333
Wash D+ 1.333
Tits F 0
Lowe C 2
Morrow A 4
Green A 4
Managers F 0
Wilk F 0
Vidro F 0
Putz D 1
Rhodes B- 2.666
Dickey C- 1.666
Rest C- 1.666
RRS C 2
41.659/27
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
Now weigh it for playing time.
JI - July 16, 2008
AB Weight IP IP Contrib. Weighted GPA
Kenji D- 240 0.037968676 0.025287138
Richie D- 252 0.03986711 0.026551495
Loafie C 379 0.059958867 0.119917735
Yuni F 326 0.051574118 0
Ichi B+ 391 0.061857301 0.206170384
Jeremy C- 115 0.018193324 0.030310078
Raul C- 370 0.058535042 0.09751938
KA B+ 352 0.055687391 0.185606075
Clement D- 109 0.017244107 0.011484575
Wlad F 107 0.016927701 0
Bench D+ 259 0.040974529 0.054619048
Felix B 423.75 113 0.067038443 0.20111533
Bedard C- 303.75 81 0.048054105 0.08005814
Silva D+ 444.975 118.66 0.070396298 0.093838265
Wash D+ 391.2375 104.33 0.061894874 0.082505867
Tits F 0 287.475 76.66 0.045479355 0
Lowe C 156.225 41.66 0.024715235 0.04943047
Morrow A 114.975 30.66 0.018189369 0.072757475
Green A 198.75 53 0.03144281 0.125771239
Managers F 270 72 0.04271476 0
Wilk F 56 0.008859358 0
Vidro F 261 0.041290935 0
Putz D 71.25 19 0.011271951 0.011271951
Rhodes B- 66.225 17.66 0.010476981 0.027931633
Dickey C- 227.475 60.66 0.035987186 0.059954651
Rest C- 35 0.005537099 0.009224806
RRS C 112.5 30 0.017797817 0.035595634
6321 0.999934741 1.606921367
Notes
- Four point grade scale
- 1 IP = 3.75 AB per (Hits allowed + Outs gotten)/Total innings pitched
- Rest = Tuglett, Jimerson, etc.
- Managers = Baek, Corco, etc. (How did Baek not get a grade…?)
- Weighted Team GPA =
It ate my formatting….
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
Wow
If this team gets a C- minus something is wrong.
JI - July 16, 2008
Sean Green has the fourth highest contribution on the team
Ichiro, Felix, Beltre, Green and Lopez make up 52% of the total GPA contribution
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
Team Havard GPA = 4/A
Kenji A 4
Richie A 4
Loafie A 4
Yuni A 4
Ichi A 4
Jeremy A 4
Raul A 4
KA A 4
Clement A 4
Wlad A 4
Bench A 4
Felix A 4
Bedard A 4
Silva A 4
Wash A 4
Tits A 4
Lowe A 4
Morrow A 4
Green A 4
Managers A 4
Wilk A 4
Vidro A 4
Putz A 4
Rhodes A 4
Dickey A 4
Rest A 4
RRS A 4
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Stupid Harvard.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
A C- for Dickey?
Yea, he had a couple of terrible starts back to back, but if we’re going to talk about Felix’s last month providing optimism for the second half, how do we ignore Dickey’s last four starts?
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
Mostly because they haven't been all that good
I suppose I could bump him up to a C, but that’s kind of splitting hairs. While Dickey’s been decent, he hasn’t been anything special.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
How do you input a table?
I want people to see the hard work I put into figuring out this team’s playing time weights GPA
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
I don't know how to do it in the comments
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
So you're telling us the overlord of LL isn't almighty as you've led us to believe
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
I'm telling you I don't care enough to ever make a table in the comments
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Just take a picture of it
and upload the picture.
LantermanC - July 16, 2008
At work
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
Use the HTML pre tag
<pre>
your table using fixed pitch fields
</pre>
rickpo - July 16, 2008
Why?
Because his BB/K rate isn’t good? Wakefield’s is never good, but knuckleballers are their own special little breed. What would Dickey have to do to pitch well in your mind – strike out a ton of guys? Cut his walk rate way down? These are things that knuckleballers just don’t have to do to succeed.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
I agree that a knuckleballer would be an exception given their M.O.
In this A-F grading scale, knuckleballers are like no-grade classes in this hypothetical college curriculum: Complete or incomplete. No inbetween. If he’s getting that knuckler to knuckle and it’s getting over the plate, that’s all you can ask.
Gomez - July 16, 2008
Based on what? A sample size of Tim Wakefield?
Do we really have enough information to say that knuckleballers – no matter the level of the knuckleball they actually throw – are exempt from the rules? Steve Sparks wasn’t. Jared Fernandez definitely wasn’t. Charlie Zink hasn’t gotten anywhere. I think we need a lot more data before we can say for certain that anybody who throws a knuckleball is allowed alternate routes to success.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Every BABIP study ever done
Has concluded that knuckleballers have a distinct and obvious ability to limit hits on balls in play. Six of the 35 pitchers with the lowest career BABIP in history are knuckleballers, which considering the size of the population of knucklers, is pretty staggering.
You can look at pretty much any successful knuckleballers career and see peripherals that aren’t much different than what Dickey’s putting up right now.
Hough: 3.94 BB/9, 5.59 K/9, .258 BABIP
Wakefield: 3.47 BB/9, 6.17 K/9, .281 BABIP
Niekro: 3.01 BB/9, 5.57 K/9, .277 BABIP
Now many Dickey’s knuckler isn’t as good as theirs was, but we certainly can’t draw that conclusion based on his BB/K rate.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
Niekro, Hough, Wakefield all used that low BABIP to limit hits
Dickey hasn’t done that, at least so far – he’s given up more hits than IP, which is quite different from the others mentioned who generally had far more IPs than hits allowed.
So the question is, why? Is it Dickey’s slightly elevated LD rate? Or is it because the Seattle defenders can’t catch?
I’d give Dickey at least a C, if only because his FIP/xFIP blow Wakefield’s out of the water; that is, I think he’s shown he can be a decent, cheap middle or back of the rotation starter, and that’s something this club has desperately needed.
But I think Jeff’s point is well taken; we don’t really know what we have yet. So far, he’s been successful, but he hasn’t followed the template laid out by other knuckleballers. Maybe that’s good, maybe that’s bad, but we don’t really know yet.
marc w - July 16, 2008
Well
My original point was really about his last four starts, where he’s followed the knuckler template to a tee – a .262 BABIP and only 2 HRs allowed in 26 innings making up for the 12/15 BB/K. I’m just challenging Jeff’s assertion that those four starts “haven’t been all that good”, not because I necessarily believe that Dickey’s the next hall of fame knuckler, but rather because I’d say that if we’re going to reject any success he has based on a low BABIP, we’re never going to accept him as a good pitcher.
And, really, I think we have to accept that with as bad as this defense is, a .301 batting average on balls in play really is something of an accomplishment.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
Well, the defense has been a lot better since Dickey started getting regular use.
.289 BABIP since the beginning of June.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Chicken? Egg?
Maybe the defense looks a lot better since they’re not giving a knuckler regular use…
(Okay, so now I’m just being argumentative, and I’ll return to my cave)
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
And I in turn will be argumentative by pointing out the crummy lineups he faced
Oakland, Toronto, and a Wrightless/Churchless New York. The one good lineup in those last four starts hit him pretty well.
I like Dickey, and am obviously in favor of giving him a shot at the #5 slot in next year’s rotation. But…I’m not sold on him being anything more than what he currently looks like.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Currenty looks like?
Right now, he looks like a guy with a 4.13 FIP. You gave him a C- because you don’t think he’s as good as he currently looks. If you do think he’s as good as he currently looks, he deserves an A.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
I'm a tRA kind of guy.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Did you know Silva's FIP is 4.16?
Matthew - July 16, 2008
Maybe Silva should have thought of defense before he signed with the Mariners =/
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
Short sighted Silva
All he saw when he signed here were big beautiful
buffet spreadspark dimensions.Gomez - July 16, 2008
I thought this was all he saw
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
There is also that
Who else was offering 4/48?
Oh, that’s right… NOBODY
Gomez - July 16, 2008
Irony Alert!
We were afraid Bavasi would offer the off-season stupid pitcher contract to Kyle Lohse.
Paytheline - July 16, 2008
Average AL FIP is 4.12 so far this year
G_ - July 16, 2008
Run his tRA
Without the two disaster starts. I mean, we’re throwing out Morrow and RRS’ bad performances, so we have to be fair, right?
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
They haven't taken anything out of the data to compute Morrow/RRS's tRA
marc w - July 16, 2008
Dave's referencing the main post
where, in giving Morrow an A, Jeff says he’s discounting the HRs Morrow recently surrendered. In turn, Jeff is including Dickey’s last couple bad appearances in judging him.
Gomez - July 16, 2008
Yes, in the narrative
but Jeff didn’t run a version of tRA for Morrow w/o those HRs.
We can all quibble with the grades, and I’m actually with Dave on that – I’d have Dickey higher. But I don’t know why we’d tweak the tRA of any pitcher to remove bad outings or outcomes.
marc w - July 16, 2008
I think the point in such a statement
is if you’re going to discount bad outings from one pitcher, discount them for all of them, or don’t discount anything for anybody and judge each pitcher by his collective body of work. If you’re going to penalize Dickey for his bad outings, then penalize Morrow as well, or if you’re going to discount one or two of Morrow’s worst, then discount Dickey’s one or two worst as well.
When it comes to measuring a statistic, we can all agree that it’s best not to cherry pick. I don’t think Dave literally means to run tRA without given outings. He’s just pointing out that logical inconsistency.
As for making a knuckleballer exception… let’s be honest, it IS much harder to hit a knuckleball, and as he pointed out, history shows that hitters post a lower BABIP vs knuckleballers. They aren’t going to mow guys down like Peavy, but they are usually going to make it hard for a lineup to hit him.
Gomez - July 16, 2008
I didn't throw anything out.
Morrow’s HR rate has just been unsustainably high, and RRS was making the first two Major League starts of his career.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
What is league average for tRA
With run scoring down significantly this year in the AL, what would be considered “good” FIP in prior years are now below average.
G_ - July 16, 2008
ahem
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/7/14/563116/best-pitching-units-by-tra
Matthew - July 16, 2008
If you ever want this to catch on
it might help to make it a little more accessible than searching the blog archives.
G_ - July 16, 2008
More accessible than still being on the front page?
pdb - July 16, 2008
Scrolling is hard
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2008
I know it. My computer keeps rolling off my desk.
And the Scroll Lock key just makes everything else fall off too.
pdb - July 16, 2008
Yes, this is exactly the approach you should take
to promote awareness of tRA when someone asks to learn more about it.
G_ - July 16, 2008
It's the approach I take when someone is given the answer to a question they ask and then whines about it
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2008
Play nicer
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Yessir
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2008
You have free reign to be mean to people who suck.
G is not one of them.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
tRA is a product just like anything else
You need to sell people on tRA, otherwise you just wasted a lot of time and brainpower developing a statistic
Being mean doesn’t help sell your product
Corco - July 16, 2008
I agree with you here
Corco - July 16, 2008
There are nine other posts on the front page
and it was below the fold. Unless you read and committed that article to memory, you would not immediately know to go there to get the league average info.
The point is if someone wants to know what someone’s FIP, EqA, GPA, etc. or what they mean, you can find them rather quickly at THT, BP, etc. and their respective glossaries. Acceptance goes hand in hand with accessibility.
G_ - July 16, 2008
It's being worked on.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
Do we even consider it ready for public release?
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2008
No. They'll just bitch about stuff I don't have time to fix right now.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
If it is not ready for public release
why are using it publicly and then complaining when someone asks about it?
G_ - July 16, 2008
Different subject.
This isn’t about tRA.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
I didn't throw anything out
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Arguments are when people really start to think.
This whole back and forth has been fascinating for me so far. Definitely the highlight of my work week.
LantermanC - July 16, 2008
This is where I stand. Except for Graham being snotty to G_ about tRA. I could've been spared that bit.
But otherwise, the give and take between Cameron, Jeff, marc w, and Gomez re Dickey has been very educational. I tend to fall more on Sullivan’s side concerning Dickey (I think he’s earned his chance, but I’m not sold), but the discussion has been great.
esoteric - July 16, 2008
I wonder where he has more value, the rotation or the pen.
Normally, that’s a no brainer in favor of the rotation, but with a knuckler, couldn’t he essentially take the place of two relievers in terms of innings pitched? In the sense of finally getting this team to move to six RP full time and/or as a possible shadow long RP for Morrow and RRS out of the rotation (I’m speaking down the line here), I’m curious is that value that he could uniquely provide would be greater than as just another SP.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
You'd have to break RRS and Morrow up by 2 starts
but yeah it could make sense.
JI - July 16, 2008
It depends in large part on how he is actually used from the pen
Will a manager use him that way?
Gomez - July 16, 2008
Interesting, but to me
the debate here isn’t about BABIP – it’s about sample size.
He’s had a .262 BABIP recently, which means his BABIP before was off the charts. I totally agree that an overall line of .301 is pretty impressive, but I just don’t know that we can say that he will or won’t follow the knuckleballer’s (or any other) template. Right now, the meager data we have are all over the map.
marc w - July 16, 2008
I just think it's premature to lump Dickey in with three guys who made a living for 65 years.
There are good knuckleballers, decent knuckleballers, and bad knuckleballers. The best knuckleballers have demonstrated an ability to reduce hits on balls in play; this much seems pretty clear. But what reason do we have to believe that Dickey is one of them? Why should he automatically get the benefit of the doubt?
I guess the question is, at what point do you determine that a guy is good enough to “break the rules”? You or I could go out there hucking knucklers and we’d get lit up just the same as we would throwing anything else. How good does your knuckleball have to be before you can start inducing weaker contact?
I just want more information. As far as I’m concerned, Dickey is a normal pitcher with an abnormal pitch until I have enough evidence to believe otherwise.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
How does Dickey compare to Wakefield
in the ratio of Knuckleballs to fastballs? We know that Dickey still has an 80mph plus fastball that he (from my eye) throws more often then I recall Wakefield doing.
That seems like it would also play into factoring whether Dickey is comparable to Wakefield and others.
MfaninAlaska - July 16, 2008
~18% for Wakefield, ~27% for Dickey
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
By default, he's part of the group
There’s not a three knuckleballers group that have defied BABIP – it’s the entire population of major league knuckleballers ever. Dickey has been selected into that group by major league executives – he’s now part of that group.
When we regress to the mean, we regress to the most specific subset applicable, not the entire grouping as a whole. If I was going to regress Jeff Clement’s major league performance, I’d regress it back to the pool of left-handed hitters over 6’0 who had a minimum performance in Triple-A at a similar age. I would not regress it back to every player in baseball history, or every kid who came up from Triple-A in the last 20 years, or other such large populations.
Same deal here – Dickey doesn’t get compared to normal pitchers because we know in advance that he’s not a normal pitcher. He gets compared to knuckleballers because that’s what he is, and knuckleballers have their own specific data set that is entirely different than a normal pitcher.
We’re not breaking any rules. The rule is knuckleballers post abnormally low BABIPs and succeed with sub-standard BB/K rates. We’re only breaking that rule if we ignore DIckey’s actual pitch-types and regress him back to a population to which he doesn’t belong.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
Two things:
(1) I do get what you’re saying. Knuckleballers are a historically unique data set, and they should be treated as such with regards to statistical regression. However, that historically unique data set has been selected in favor of people who survived and stuck around. A good knuckleballer can live forever. A bad knuckleballer washes out in a hurry (like Fernandez). So far, Dickey’s only been around for 60 innings (ignoring what he did in Texas because the pitch was still new). In those 60 innings, he’s had a normal HR/FB, BABIP, and LD%. I guess what I’m saying is that I’d like some evidence that he’s capable of being one of the good knuckleballers before I consider him one. I don’t like the idea of a guy automatically being regressed towards Hough/Niekro/Wakefield just because he throws a similar pitch.
(2) Does Dickey really belong in that group anyway? Yeah, he throws a knuckleball, but he also throws considerably harder than any other knuckleballer that I can think of off the top of my head. Higher velocity = less sink and, presumably, less horizontal movement (PITCHf/x seems to agree with this but it’s hard to tell). In theory, if the “knuckleball rules” are the result of the ball’s motion making it harder to square up, wouldn’t the ball having less movement therefore make it a little easier to hit hard?
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Why don't we do that with every pitcher then?
RRS’ BABIP last year was .344, so could we have concluded that he had not yet proven that he was a major league quality pitcher, and therefore we couldn’t expect his BABIP to regress to .300 since DIPS only applies to major league quality pitchers? Do we really have to wait until a player performs close to league average in a particular skill before we can say that he’s an established part of the norm?
I think you’d have a more compelling argument if the knuckleballers broke down in an obvious good/bad fashion in terms of BABIP, but that’s not the case. Even the guys you’d say had mediocre or bad knucklers posted average or lower BABIPs – Steve Sparks (.297) and Dennis Springer (.277) the two most recent examples. Jared Fernandez’s BABIP was .321 over 100 innings, and as far as counter arguments go, he’s basically it.
There’s just not this population of guys who throw the knuckleball and are getting pounded on balls in play. Even Haeger and Zink post low BABIPs in the minors, and while we can’t know what they would do for certain in the majors, the default assumption can’t be that they’d get pounded, since there’s really no evidence of that being true.
If it was just Hough/Neikro/Wakefield, I’d agree, but there’s a big list of knuckleballers in history, ranging from Hall Of Fame to just Meh, and they pretty much all posted below average BABIPs during their careers. We just can’t regress Dickey back to any other population of pitcher besides knucklers – it’s the one he fits in best, and we don’t know enough to start breaking knucklers down into smaller subsets.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
Were they posting low BABIP on normal LD rates, or just low LD rates?
Graham MacAree - July 16, 2008
I suppose we can't really address Point #2 from above since it's impossible to know right now, huh?
If you had to guess, around where would you put Dickey’s true talent BABIP?
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Probably .280 to .285
I’d bump that down to .275 or so if he threw less fastballs than he does now, which I’d anticipate him doing as he became more comfortable with the pitch.
davidcameron - July 16, 2008
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/6/30/562060/6-30-open-game-thread#7083307
JI - July 16, 2008
Vidro should receive a zero.
An F is too high.
JI - July 16, 2008
Well this kind of stole some of the zing of my upcoming post, but whatever.
Hope everyone likes first half recaps! Don’t care? Too bad, you’re getting more!
Matthew - July 16, 2008
We need an off topic thread of the day.
JI - July 16, 2008
I should have done a series preview for the All Star Break
Matthew - July 16, 2008
Still could. We could still make it off-topic.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Ironically, the AS game thread was very much on topic.
JI - July 16, 2008
That is ironic.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Ironically, the term ironic was used correctly here.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
The verse where the plane crashes is actually ironic.
JI - July 16, 2008
I wonder if she used irony correctly in the song
would people still be talking about it ten years later?
G_ - July 16, 2008
It would be a better world we live in.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Lots more
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Uh oh.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
I tried to stop him.
JI - July 16, 2008
I'm still skeptical of Wlad
but he is doing all right in Tacoma. Overall, his AAA line is 234/328/532 (860 OPS, 360 wOBA), but the low BA and OBP are driven by a fluky 216 BABIP, as his LD% is 22%. Compared to last year, he is walking more and striking out less in AAA: his BB% has improved from 10.4% in 2007 to 11.8% in 2008, and his K% has dropped from 19.2% in 2007 to 16.1% this year. This is his last option year, so I would be fine leaving him in Tacoma until September to consolidate his game.
G_ - July 16, 2008
I think Manzell already proved
that bringing up prospects is a bad idea.
BTW what does anyone here think of Feierabend? I was hopeful for him last year, but he not only looked horrible, but was horrible. I’m curious to see how he will do with a second chance. Perhaps a solid but unspectacular Jeremy Reed-like performance?
LantermanC - July 16, 2008
Well, we'll have to see what he's like after his injury
He was having a great year results-wise, but as with so many guys, he’s got to execute perfectly to avoid getting hammered like he did last year. He just doesn’t have the stuff to make any mistakes.
So far, he was doing a good job of it. And I’d like to think that Campillo’s breakout year will help the M’s have patience with the likes of Feierabend, but realisticaly, he’s a #4 at best. Given the performance of M’s #4 starters in recent years, he could really help if he develops. But solid-but-unspectacular is kind of a best-case scenario.
marc w - July 16, 2008
I still [heart] Wlad
He was thrown into a bad situation this year [“hey rook; we stink… save us!”], and I agree that he’s still learning in Tacoma. Let him come up next year and then we’ll see what we’ve got.
marc w - July 16, 2008
You qualified it with the word might, but Giants fans would disagree.
marcello - July 16, 2008
I don't think Vizquel ever was that great of a hitter to be considered finished
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 16, 2008
Well, he dropped from about league average to no longer needing a bat when he steps into the box, but point taken.
marcello - July 16, 2008
Pardon.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Ahem
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
But...but this is a good one.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
I know that’s the style round these parts, but it’s the subject title box. I didn’t need a title, just the body text.
marcello - July 16, 2008
Other way...
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Pardon me if this sounds curt
But unless you begin your post with a jpeg or a blockquote you must use the subject line.
JI - July 16, 2008
Everything should have a subject
so that the post can be collapsed if the viewer wishes. Even just a . works.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
I was just concerned with readability,
Yeah, as soon as I hit send I realized the it would be nice for some people if the pictures were collapsible.
JI - July 16, 2008
Ok, good, I'm glad I wasn't just being unfriendly.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
I wouldn't break out the picture until the second offense.
JI - July 16, 2008
It's fine
I’ve seen the picture before as I lurk around here quite a bit.
marcello - July 16, 2008
It was the second time.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Block quote is a grey area
JI - July 16, 2008
If it's one line though, does it really change anything?
marcello - July 16, 2008
Readability.
JI - July 16, 2008
It's our custom.
Respect it please.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
If it really bugs you I'll start using subject lines when I blockquote.
JI - July 16, 2008
I want subject lines
whenever jpegs are posted that are screen caps of threads. That drives me batshit and I may just end up deleting them in the future.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
You know I love those and will have to appeal for a final ruling.
Nothing personal.
JI - July 16, 2008
You're the boss
marcello - July 16, 2008
This style, while prevalent and popular on McC
is frowned on here, and on AN.
rfloh - July 16, 2008
Why did RRS deserve a higher grade than Dickey?
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 16, 2008
More dreamy.
JI - July 16, 2008
More dreamy than this?
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 16, 2008
Absolutely.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
He's a lefty.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Knuckleball>Lefty
not sure if Knuckleball > Lefty & Aussie & Hyphen though…
LantermanC - July 16, 2008
Nope.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 16, 2008
Sleeping with the guy who handed out the grades?
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
It's like high school all over again!
Gomez - July 16, 2008
He didn't
That was my mistake. They should both get either a C or C-.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Actually, I'll make a late addendum
Change RRS to a C- and Dickey to a C.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Also, were you grading solely based on performance or on performance vs. career/expected performance?
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 16, 2008
Performance
Otherwise Miguel Cairo would get an A for being the same pile of crap he’s always been.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Geoff Baker is a funny, funny man.
BrianL - July 16, 2008
Riggelman is looking so short term
that he’s actually in the past, about 7 years ago.
Matthew - July 16, 2008
Strasburg
He IS thinking long term!
Gomez - July 16, 2008
How does Vidro help in any term?
Short, long, prison ….
Paytheline - July 16, 2008
Jose Vidro is the Mariners 2011 MVP
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
So after giving this a little more thought
RRS -> C
Dickey -> C
Lopez -> C-
Yuni -> D
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Why'd Lopez go down to C-?
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 16, 2008
Defense
It occurred to me that just because I don’t yet believe he’s terrible doesn’t mean he hasn’t been bad.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
Flip flopper.
JI - July 16, 2008
Shouldn't his grade be based on what you believe right now though =(
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
No, these grades are based strictly on how the players did in the first half.
Jeff Sullivan - July 16, 2008
It only measures how well they take tests.
JI - July 16, 2008
I hate it when managers manage to the test.
pdb - July 16, 2008
From what I've seen through my homer glasses I think that he's been at the very least adequate
And with ~average defense and an ~average bat I’d say that as a second baseman he deserves a C+
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 16, 2008
Typo
Lopez -> B+
seattlebruin - July 16, 2008
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