Seattle: 38-60
Red Sox: 57-73
Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs Jon Lester*
Game 2: R.A. Dickey vs Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 3: Felix Hernandez vs Clay Buchholz
Who is Jon Lester besides some guy who survived cancer and then threw a no-hitter for Boston thus guaranteeing him a lifetime achievement award at the ESPYs? In a word; average. He throws an average number of strikes, misses and average number of bats, strikes out and walks an average number of batters, and so on. The one thing he does above average is induce groundballs and limit home runs. He does nothing below average. One above average trait plus no below average traits = valuable pitcher.
Massive control problems this season for Matsuzaka and his strike percentage is now below 60% and he's walking nearly 15% of the batters he faces. He's missing fewer bats as well and his strikeout rate has dipped accordingly, down below 20%. He's getting fewer groundballs as well, down two points from 2007. Naturally, his ERA is down nearly two points. God ERA is stupid. It currently stands at 2.65 while he maintains a xFIP of 5.07. Why the difference? BABIP = .247, HR/FB% = 5.7%, LOB% = 81.5%. Ding ding ding!
We don't have much of a sample size for Clay Buchholz yet and what we do have flies in the face of his results from 2007 so now would be a good time to turn to a scouting report on Buchholz to get an idea of how he pitches. I don't have one of those. I can tell you that he's been a bit wild this year but misses a good number of bats and gets groundballs.
Likely Starters:
C Jason Varitek^
1 Kevin Youkilis
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Mike Lowell
S Julio Lugo
L Jacoby Ellsbury*
C Coco Crisp^
R J.D. Drew*
D Manny Ramirez
Manny Ramirez has a pair of $20 million club options for 2009 and 2010. If they get declined and he hit the free agent market we could witness the Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Manny Ramirez and Ken Griffey Jr. being free agent "outfielders" all at the same time. You could build the world's most hilarious outfield in one slew of signings!
Proof that many Red Sox fans are stupid? J.D. Drew.
A successful lost series to Cleveland going exactly as expected which is pretty rare. We gained ground on Washington but we're facing a mighty challenge from the dregs of the National League as Washington, San Diego, San Francisco, Colorado and Pittsburgh are all going to give us a run for the money. We have a tiebreak over Colorado and San Diego, but for Strasburg we really need Raul Ibanez and Jarrod Washburn to get dealt as soon as possible because the Pirates are likely to be much worse on August 1 than they are on July 21st.
Speaking of trades, the Dodgers are still looking for a shortstop and the rumor is that they've now turned to defensive whiz John McDonald. Yuniesky Betancourt still has a rep as a defensive whiz among some circles and actually has a bat while John McDonald made the unusual career choice of trying to hit with a pool cue. Trade trade trade trade trade. Please?
In further, oh god I wish we could defect to the NL West news, our pitchers hitting have a .304 slugging percentage. Our DHs this year? .284 slugging.
Kilt Lifter Scotch Ale
Pike Brewing. Seattle, WA
One of my favorite scotch-style ales this one is a clear muddy amber color with a thin head but a bountiful aroma and taste of oats with some caramel and malts tossed in as well. Finishes a bit thin as is the Pike mainstay, but that's its only drawback.
0 recs | 86 comments
Let's win this one for Tampa!
JI - July 21, 2008
Yessssssssssssss
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
Our pitchers could do slightly worse.
JI - July 21, 2008
I forget where I read it, somewhere on the four-letter...
...but Ellsbury’s OBP has been in a nose dive throughout June and July. He had 14 walks in May and only 2 in June with 3 this month. I wonder what’s wrong?
Frosty Raptor - July 21, 2008
Pitchers figured out he has no power and just throw him strikes now?
Matthew - July 21, 2008
Not enough Red Sox fans clapping and shouting "I believe in Ellsburys"?
G_ - July 21, 2008
This looked true in June but it hasn't actually been true in July, now that I look at it
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Pitchers figured out he has no power and just threw him strikes
until Jacoby adjusted by swinging more often and then pitchers adjusted and started throwing him more balls?
Matthew - July 21, 2008
Possible
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
I'm guessing it's the same two issues as usual:
(1) Pitchers giving him more strikes because they realize he doesn’t have power
(2) Ellsbury trying to swing his way out of a slump
April: 18.9 swing% out of zone/64.7 swing% in zone
May: 19.3/56.5
June: 27.2/57.8
July: 32.8/51.7
His plate discipline has fallen apart as he’s started to hack.
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
I get why he'd try to hack his way out of a slump.
But why would his swing% in zone go down?
LantermanC - July 21, 2008
SSSSSSSSSSSSss
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
I don't know.
Maybe he’s getting fooled more often. Maybe it’s a sample size issue. Not sure.
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Also, this delights me to no end
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Now we just need some Japanese fanboy to come by and tell us that Matsuzaka is doing something unique to make those numbers sustainable
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
JI - July 21, 2008
I'm sure DOV has a few to spare.
Matthew - July 21, 2008
Remember when Aaron Miles took him deep?
That was awesome.
The Cardinals destroyed both he Rays and Red Sox (w/o Pujols!) during IL. I think we know who the best team in baseball is.
JI - July 21, 2008
Gyroball. Duh.
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
BrianL - July 21, 2008
Where can I find league averages
on things such as strike , LOB, HR/FB? I can’t seem to find it on fangraphs or baseball reference.
CKel - July 21, 2008
B-R player pages (Pitch Data) and the THT Team page can help you
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Adrian Beltre is hitting .600 on line drives
100 points below his career average. yes, I love the splits pages.
JI - July 21, 2008
Brandon Fahey is hitting .769 on line drives
BELTRE SUCKS
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Pujols is hitting about .810 for his career.
JI - July 21, 2008
...His aim is better.
JI - July 21, 2008
Hit em where they aint
CKel - July 21, 2008
He hits them so hard people get out of the way to avoide getting Chris Young'd
dbroncos31 - July 21, 2008
My favorite Scotch Ale is Bounday Bay.
Does that come in a bottle or am I so lucky to be where it is available on tap?
GoodKeith - July 21, 2008
You ARE so lucky
that’s my fave. scotch ale too, but it’s somewhat tricky to find on tap.
You can, it’s not impossible, but it’s tough.
No bottles, I believe.
For bottles, Pike is damned good.
marc w - July 21, 2008
I'm having one tonight
Maybe more if the Sox make douches out of patronage at the place I intend to watch the game at.
GoodKeith - July 21, 2008
And where might that be?
I’m trying to keep track of the bars that serve BB… or rather, BB scotch. I see the IPA around now.
Oh, and I was wrong – BB Scotch is now available in bottles. Check whole foods. I would, but we don’t have one in T-town.
marc w - July 21, 2008
Re: Buchholz
He’s tended to struggle a lot in the first inning this year with his fastball location. While it’s decent enough, hitting 92-94 (Gameday initial velocity) with ~4 inches of tailing action, it’s not overpowering. If he’s not hitting his spots it gets crushed. His curve and slider both have good action and he can mix them up with his fastball pretty well, but neither are particularly overpowering. Tends to rattle easily if he’s getting hit. He’ll walk people, but hacking actually seems to be more effective against him than patience.
Zu Long - July 21, 2008
Lugo is on the DL
So Jed Lowrie, switch hitter, will probably be making the starts at short.
Christian - July 21, 2008
Everything I've heard about him says he's a 2B, not SS
Maybe Yuni will be the better defender in this series?
Eyebrows - July 21, 2008
one can hope
CKel - July 21, 2008
I'm not even sure Yuni is a 2B at this point.
Matthew - July 21, 2008
What a fall from grace
CKel - July 21, 2008
To be or not to be: that is the question
Apparently, Yuni is not
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
As long as Nomar keeps hitting
are the Dodgers really gonna go for a SS?
bluemax - July 21, 2008
Depends if they give two shits about defense.
JI - July 21, 2008
They know Nomar can't play SS on a regular basis.
Thingray - July 21, 2008
In the ideal world where Yuni does get traded
What actually happens at shortstop? Tuglett? Willie?
CKel - July 21, 2008
For now or for the future?
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
For now I would guess WFB.
Thingray - July 21, 2008
I was referring to the present
But now that you mention it, how about the future? Is there anybody in the system that projects to play a respectable SS at the ML level? Sure there’s Triunfel is we get lucky, and he doesn’t end up as a 3B/LF, but other than that?
CKel - July 21, 2008
Jharmidy DeJesus
going out on a limb with that one…
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
The answer is not in the system
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
JI - July 21, 2008
Please, please, a thousand times yes
this would be amazing
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
Don’t forget Raul! :D
eponymous_coward - July 21, 2008
I was at the Raul "lawn dart" game
It didn’t deserve the term Felix day
CKel - July 21, 2008
Was that the same one he dropped 2 FBs?
And got an error on another one?
Faux - July 21, 2008
not that I recall
Mike Mussina did hold us to like 3 hits or something ridiculous like that though
CKel - July 21, 2008
I love that gif.
JI - July 21, 2008
It's the crowning jewel of our gif section.
BrianL - July 21, 2008
Bless the handsome devil who made it.
JI - July 21, 2008
Without knowing for sure who it was, I'm inclined to credit Jeff the gifmaster
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
ALL GLORY TO JEFF!
BrianL - July 21, 2008
Are we back to that?
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 21, 2008
You mean giving Jeff credit for my work?
JI - July 21, 2008
You got the recs for it didn't you?
seattlebruin - July 21, 2008
I'm going to have to start watermarking these things.
JI - July 21, 2008
That will make people like you
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
I have enough people who like me,
I want to be loved.
JI - July 21, 2008
.
Aaron Campeau - July 21, 2008
Ask Graham
to be feared is more important than to be loved.
AZSEAfan - July 21, 2008
I'm not scared of Graham.
JI - July 21, 2008
But he does hold the keys to the box.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 21, 2008
Not touching
that one
AZSEAfan - July 21, 2008
It's been overplayed.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 21, 2008
Not if Graham is the butt of the joke.
JI - July 21, 2008
Mine's more personal.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 21, 2008
d'awww
JI - July 21, 2008
I thought you'd appreciate it.
Kirsten Schlewitz - July 21, 2008
The Red Sox bullpen has gotten especially bad.
They are losing close games in the late innings as a result.
44FAN - July 21, 2008
Agreed
Papelbon, Okajima, and Aardsma are just terrible.
JI - July 21, 2008
If only they could use those three exclusively
the bullpen as a whole has a negative WPA, and a walk rate over 4 per 9.
marc w - July 21, 2008
I think they'll find a way.
JI - July 21, 2008
I forgot about Delcarmen.
It’s hard to have a suck bullpen with 4 good to excellent relievers.
JI - July 21, 2008
That's because they don't.
They have one of the best BPs in baseball.
Matthew - July 21, 2008
Yeah, that's what I was getting at.
Even if they’ve struggled as a whole, it’d be next to impossible to have anything but a positive contribution going forward.
JI - July 21, 2008
Oh joy
I know it’s not the first series of the year, but why not more ranting about obnoxious BoSox fans? I hate those Chowdah-heads…
Too bad we won’t see a Dickey-Wakefield matchup this week. I was kind of hoping for one of those…
thejew4u - July 21, 2008
KNUCKLEBAWLS
BrianL - July 21, 2008
It's looking like we must win today.
RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYS! WE MUST HELP THE RAAAAAAAAAAYS!
LONGOOOOOOOOO!
BrianL - July 21, 2008
I like the Rays and all... and I really want them to win
but for me, Strasburg > Rays
seattlebruin - July 22, 2008
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