A simple ratio of Fangraphs' Z-Swing% (swinging at pitches in the zone) to O-Swing% (swinging at pitches outside of the zone). Pitchers excluded.
Top Ten, 2008: (minimum: 50 PA)
1. Nick Johnson, 5.7
2. Frank Thomas, 5.3
3. Jack Cust, 4.9
4. Chipper Jones, 4.6
5. Marco Scutaro, 4.6
6. Rob Mackowiak, 4.5
7. Willie Harris, 4.4
8. BJ Upton, 4.4
9. Doug Mientkiewicz, 4.3
10. Daric Barton, 4.3
Bottom Ten, 2008:
1. Angel Berroa, 1.6
2. Darin Erstad, 1.7
3. Brandon Wood, 1.7
4. Wladimir Balentien, 1.7
5. Carlos Gomez, 1.7
6. Rajai Davis, 1.7
7. Brett Gardner, 1.7
8. Tony Pena, 1.7
9. Alexei Ramirez, 1.8
10. Miguel Olivo, 1.8
Top Ten, 2007: (minimum: 100 PA)
1. Barry Bonds, 4.9
2. Morgan Ensberg, 4.9
3. Jack Cust, 4.5
4. Doug Mirabelli, 4.3
5. Gabe Gross, 4.3
6. D'Angelo Jimenez, 4.3
7. Brian Giles, 4.3
8. Kenny Lofton, 4.2
9. Luis Castillo, 4.2
10. Marco Scutaro, 4.1
Bottom Ten, 2007:
1. Carlos Gomez, 1.6
2. Miguel Olivo, 1.6
3. Rondell White, 1.7
4. Howie Kendrick, 1.7
5. Jose Molina, 1.7
6. Marlon Anderson, 1.8
7. Johnny Estrada, 1.8
8. Tony Pena, 1.8
9. Toby Hall, 1.8
10. Vladimir Guerrero, 1.8
Top Ten, 2006: (minimum: 100 PA)
1. Ryan Spilborghs, 7.7
2. Hideki Matsui, 5.8
3. Scott Hatteberg, 5.4
4. Bill Mueller, 5.1
5. Morgan Ensberg, 4.9
6. Barry Bonds, 4.9
7. Brian Giles, 4.8
8. BJ Upton, 4.8
9. Jason Giambi, 4.7
10. Chipper Jones, 4.7
Bottom Ten, 2006:
1. Eliezer Alfonzo, 1.5
2. Delmon Young, 1.7
3. Angel Berroa, 1.7
4. Sandy Alomar Jr, 1.9
5. Alex Gonzalez, 1.9
6. Bengie Molina, 1.9
7. Ronny Cedeno, 1.9
8. Shane Costa, 1.9
9. Toby Hall, 1.9
10. Reed Johnson, 1.9
Who's got the worst eye in baseball? I'm inclined to give the nod to Miguel Olivo. Over the last three years he's had the 10th, 2nd, and 11th-lowest ratios in the league, while at the same time making contact with only 43.2% of his swings on pitches out of the zone (against a league average of 60%). And yet he's still somehow found a way to slug .430 over the same span of time. Currently that would be good enough for third place on the Mariners. As a unit, we're hitting worse than the least disciplined hitter in baseball. Think about that for a minute.
BJ Upton surprised me. I generally don't think of him as being all that selective, but the proof is right there. Angel Berroa? Less of a surprise.
2 recs | 21 comments
The Mariners as a whole are pretty unselective and free-swinging.
What does the fact that no Mariner is on this list mean?
Any chance we can see what Yuni and Kenji are on this list?
LantermanC - July 21, 2008
Yuni's ~2.2, Kenji's ~2.5 since 2006
the league average is 2.7.
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
What's up with all the A's on the list in 08?
SSS?
Is there a trend of these from year to year outside of a few extreme cases, or is it fairly dynamic? Would there be a decline with age (due to eyes going, perhaps), or even an increase (veteran-ness)?
Also, I’m wondering what the correlation is between this number and K/BB? Or maybe a three way of this and how much contact made on swings?
In short, I have a bunch of questions that I can’t get my own answers for. Is there a tutorial somewhere that shows how to do the math (or even get the numbers) behind some of the more difficult topics?
Faux - July 21, 2008
(1) The A's collect disciplined hitters
(2) Don’t know; haven’t looked
(3) Presumably an increase; aging players with slower bats will become more selective by necessity
(4) Don’t know the correlation betweent this and K/BB, but I imagine it’s pretty strong. There is no correlation between this ratio and Contact% (R^2 = 0.0122). There’s also no correlation between O-Swing% and O-Contact%, so it’s not like people are swinging at pitches out of the zone because they can hit them. They swing at pitches out of the zone because they suck.
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Umm, wow.
I didn’t actually expect and answer for all of that.
But since you’re answering questions, did the Pitch f/x conference say anything about expanding to MiLB, so we can see if these sorts of things translate from the minors to the majors?
Faux - July 21, 2008
"an" answer, ugh.
Faux - July 21, 2008
I do not recall anyone talking about that, no
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
I wonder where Bonds from 2002-04 would place.
JI - July 21, 2008
4.0
Average batting line – 0 for 0, 4 IBB
Faux - July 21, 2008
For whatever it's worth, '05 Bonds was at 6.6
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
They must not have pitched around him (as much) that one week he played.
JI - July 21, 2008
I should have looked at his other numbers first
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
To be fair, it was two weeks.
JI - July 21, 2008
Yeah but
the M’s have 4 of the TOP hitters in baseball at making contact on pitches outside of the zone.
You can complain all you want about how this is a ‘bad strategy’ or ‘terrible plate discipline’ but this team is BUILT to hack, and they’re basically the 1927 yankees of topping a low-and-away offspeed pitch to second base.
marc w - July 21, 2008
Upton really is interesting
His 2006 and 2008 are very similar – though his ratio in ‘06 was even better (4.75). In both years, he was extremely selective on out-of-zone pitches, and made contact on over 80% of pitches in the zone (not a fabulous number, but whatever).
The outlier here is 2007, when he hacked at far more balls, made contact on fewer in-zone pitches, and had a far lower overall contact rate.
If you knew only the above, what do you think his slash stats or ave. would be in those three years?
marc w - July 21, 2008
I'd think they'd be reversed.
It’s weird – you look at Upton’s ‘07/’08 batting lines and, at least for me, the first thing to come to mind is “he must’ve been swinging harder.” Which doesn’t really make much sense, but there you go. I wonder if he’s made a conscious adjustment to his approach (although I don’t know why he would, considering how well he hit), because while I’m not familiar with the standard year-to-year variance in these numbers, he seems to have ventured beyond the standard range.
Jeff Sullivan - July 21, 2008
Yeah, I'd like to know what the variance is, although that old
David Appleman study suggested that there’s a hell of a lot of YTY correlation, so… not a ton of normal variance.
It IS odd that Upton seems to have changed his whole approach, had a huuuge year, and then decided to change back. Easily one of the most enigmatic players in years.
marc w - July 22, 2008
Bossman Junior is indeed surprising.
I checked Upton’s line a couple of days ago and was quite surprised by his IsoP. And his BABIP was so high last year that I just figured his high OBP would come down quite a bit. But he’s only two walks away from matching last year’s total, so it looks to be a change in approach.
Teej - July 21, 2008
*IsoD, not IsoP.
Teej - July 21, 2008
Alas, poor Nick Johnson.
Such a naturally gifted hitter trapped in such a horribly uncooperative body.
esoteric - July 21, 2008
Hear, hear!
Not enough people talk about Johnson’s talent. The guy is remarkable. It just sucks that he has Snelling’s body.
Teej - July 22, 2008
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