One last time, for old times' sake:
In perhaps his last start for the Mariners, Jarrod Washburn hurled a gem against the Blue Jays on Sunday by allowing just one run in eight innings. (Rotoworld)
Wrong.
Okay, the second part is true - Washburn did indeed allow but a single run today in eight innings against Toronto, an outing that couldn't have come at a more perfect time given the state of negotiations between New York and Seattle.
But to call this "a gem" demonstrates complete and utter ignorance of what it takes to be a good pitcher. I know, I know, it isn't the job of the Rotoworld people to report much more than the most basic results, but let's not pretend like that's the only place singing Washburn's praises. It was just the first place I looked. People all over are going to be giving Jarrod credit for pitching brilliantly under considerable duress, credit that - let's be honest - he doesn't really deserve.
As we've talked about many a time, the three big keys for a pitcher are throwing strikes, missing bats, and keeping the ball on the ground. With a couple exceptions, a great pitcher does all three, a good pitcher does two, a mediocre pitcher does one, and Steve Trachsel does zero. So with that in mind, how'd Jarrod do today?
-67% strikes (68/101)
-2 swings and misses
-7 grounders on 27 balls in play
Against a starting lineup that's combined for a .689 OPS against lefties so far this year, Jarrod did a good job of finding the zone, but didn't really do anything else. The Blue Jays were constantly making contact and putting the ball in the air. They also hit a home run and five other line drives, so even with the four infield pop-outs, it's not like they weren't hitting the ball well. Plug this into the equation and you come out with a tRA close to five. That's below average. Jarrod only allowed one run in eight innings today, but if he made a habit of pitching like this all the time, he'd be a below-average starter. This "gem" was nothing more than a classic Ryan Franklin Special. And you remember how happy we were to shed Ryan Franklin.
With all that said, whatever; it's not like this could possibly hurt the Mariners' bargaining position, so there's no reason to be angry or annoyed. It's just...it's funny how small, essentially meaningless samples of information seem to carry so much weight. So Jarrod has a 2.82 ERA over his last 11 starts. Neato. Clearly a valuable arm to add for the stretch drive. But at the same time, his core numbers over the same stretch are as boring as they've ever been, he had a 7.14 ERA in the nine starts immediately preceding, and his tRA on the season is hovering around five, just like it has for as long as he's been a Mariner. Despite this little hot streak of run prevention, he's not by any means a different pitcher, and I just can't fathom being Brian Cashman - theoretically one of the 30 smartest roster management minds in the world - looking at Jarrod, and thinking "this is a guy we could really use to help put us over the top." Jarrod Washburn? Really? Jarrod Washburn is the best you can do? I don't think you're trying very hard.
I guess I shouldn't complain. If the Yankees want Jarrod Washburn, then more power to them; I hope he helps them overtake the Red Sox. I just shouldn't let myself get caught up in all the rumors, because as much as I'd love to have Cabrera or Gardner, this is Jarrod Washburn we're talking about, and at the end of the day, the real prize in any Jarrod Washburn trade is that you no longer have to deal with Jarrod Washburn.
Go away, Jarrod. Go away and never come back.
Biggest Contribution: Jarrod Washburn, +29.8%
Biggest Suckfest: Adrian Beltre, -6.7%
Most Important AB: Vidro homer, +24.0%
Most Important Pitch: McDonald homer, -13.5%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +32.3%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +17.7%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)
John McDonald and Jose Vidro both hit home runs.
0 recs | 64 comments
"Go away, Jarrod. Go away and never come back."
Truth
IceStormV1 - July 27, 2008
Dude what the fuck.
Washburn pitched great today and he would be a great addition for the Yankees. With Wash they could have great depth and a proven playoff pitcher for the stretch run. IMO I would totally give up an ok CF for a pitcher who can consistently run a low 3s or high 2s ERA over a consistent period of time. And that’s what Wash has done recently. We gave up Jones for less than this; if I’m Cash I would give Gardner and maybe Horne too.
Also, numbers are just numbers; what matters is that Wash has been awesome the last couple of months and with better run support might even have like 12 wins. The Yankees are lucky to get someone as good as him.
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
Yes! Sing it sister!!!
Washburn’s got toughness, veteran gristle, and a horde of other intangies that make him great!!
I hope the Yankees see these awesome qualities and give us Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes in return.
marinator - July 27, 2008
I would expect more than Kennedy for him.
Kennedy struggled this year and is unproven, whereas Washburn is a proven playoff guy who is one of the best pitchers in the game right now. Maybe Hughes straight up, but I think they like him a little too much. I’d prefer a nice package of Melky/Gardner and a young pitcher like Horne. then we could maybe one day replace the awesomeness of Wash and also get a decent 4th OF.
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
Veteran gristle?
Aaron Campeau - July 27, 2008
Veteran grit + hustle = veteran gristle
Nick S - July 27, 2008
I came up with this!
i don’t feel like digging for it though,
RafaelCarmona22 - July 28, 2008
No offense and I love you like I love Herpes
But please shut the hell up until the trade is completed.
Just because we follow the Mariners doesn’t mean other teams dont take advantage of intelligent baseball fans’ analysis.
Slica - July 27, 2008
Oh, and...
: D
Slica - July 27, 2008
If the M's miss the Strasburg Express by one game
Jarrod can officially be to blame.
Torgen - July 27, 2008
I'd blame the Blue Jays.
Teej - July 27, 2008
I missed the part where I tried to put my hand through the wall.
Like a turd that won’t flush…
JI - July 27, 2008
A trick for that:
Empty a pitcher of water into the bowl while you flush and away it goes.
waldo rojas - July 27, 2008
Your problem, JI
is that you’re not a “gritty veteran.” Try to get more fibre in your diet and you’ll become a gritty veteran, and all your troubles will flush away more easily.
I did find it interesting that yesterday the Yankees optioned both Igawa and Gardner to AAA. Per the MLBPA, they have 3 days to report to AAA—meaning that, in effect, they will never have to make room for them at Scranton-Wilkes Barre and the ML team can have two more players in the interim. Now, of course, if the M’s were to delay this deal for, say 3 days, the Yankees could be in a little trouble (actualy, they would probably just “transfer” two of their starting pitchers who are not scheduled to pitch for a couple days to one of the lower teams with open spots).
kva15 - July 27, 2008
I dunno
I’m going to use a phrase that generally gets on my last nerve but really, what do you expect them to say? “Jarrod Washburn pitched 8 innings of luck?”
I don’t really care that “Good GMs” should never be interested in Washburn. I care that Cashman IS interested in Wash. This is the same team that gave Mike Mussina another shot at the rotation.
I probably couldn’t have asked for a better outing this close to the trade deadline. Of course it’s not a real gem but general public always calls these “gems”. Lord knows we’ve seen enough of them thrown against us.
My only concern is if this somehow leads us to not trading Washburn. That’s where the real stupidity comes in. Washburn will always be Washburn and we’ve already had 2 1/2 years of it. Keeping him doesn’t help us at all. We know we have guys ready to step in and take Washburn’s place.
I don’t care what they say about today’s performance. Just trade him.
ThundaPC - July 27, 2008
Jarrod Washburn pitched 8 innings of suck.
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
average != suck.
Matthew - July 27, 2008
Heighten your expectations
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 27, 2008
Appreciate gray scale.
Matthew - July 27, 2008
But
I know below average is not suck, but suck sounds better.
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
Suck is wrong.
Wrong sounds terrible.
Matthew - July 27, 2008
This was 8 innings of useful
You can sell useful.
Gomez - July 27, 2008
Also pray that the Sox light up Ponson tonight.
That could help expedite things, because you get people going “God I wish Washburn had pitched instead. Then we would have won because he was awesome!!!!!!”
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
Surprised Bloomquist didn't start today.
There is this guy over at the PI who somehow draws me into reading his posts about Bloomquist being a better CF than both Ichiro and Jeremy Reed, the latest post claiming Bloomquist could be an All Star, never complains, and if we had a starting 8 (minus C and SP) of WFBs, we would win as many games as we have this year.
Thank goodness this is the only place I discuss Mariners online.
Slica - July 27, 2008
Do we have a GIF of WFB missing the flyball in the 12th inning the other day?
Fin - July 28, 2008
BTW Shark Week on Discovery Channel.
Related: Kari Byron in a bikini
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
I don't know who that person is...
but I read it as Karl Byron at first.
LantermanC - July 27, 2008
Run a google image search while you're not at work.
BrianL - July 27, 2008
Kari got married. :(
RafaelCarmona22 - July 27, 2008
Ever see the Mythbusters
Where they made an ass plaque? My goodness, she is merely ‘not bad’ to me, but I will never forget that episode for sure.
Slica - July 27, 2008
Yeah that was a good one.
Yeah she gets bonus points for being on one of the best shows ever.
dbroncos31 - July 27, 2008
Shhh you'll blow the deal
OlSalty - July 27, 2008
I really hope we get at least 2 B- level prospects this week.
Work sucks, the Mariners suck, I just need some good news, and sad as it is, Melky Cabrera in an M’s uniform would make my month.
LantermanC - July 27, 2008
FJM
just made me realize that Angel Berroa has more ABs for the Dodgers than Andy LaRoche :(
bluemax - July 27, 2008
I can't believe Angel Berroa has an MLB job
Gomez - July 27, 2008
Its mind boggling
the Dodgers have so many good young players but they continue to over rely on guys like Juan Pierre, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Scott Proctor, Nomar Garciaparra and now Casey Blake.
It drives me mad.
bluemax - July 27, 2008
Coletti proves time and again that he's a veteran-monger
Gomez - July 27, 2008
Yeah
the Dodgers have the worst GM Manager combo for their talent.
bluemax - July 27, 2008
Aren't the Dodgers are like the NL version of the Mariners?
If so, that doesn’t surprise me.
Fin - July 28, 2008
That would be the Brewers.
Mariner John - July 28, 2008
I was thinking more of franchise philosophies
rather than team histories.
Fin - July 28, 2008
Probably the Astros in that case then.
Although they have no talent to begin with.
Mariner John - July 29, 2008
On one DBacks board, I remember seeing a post that said something alone the lines of:
“If we end up winning this miserable division, Ned Coletti should be team MVP.”
Goose - July 28, 2008
Matthew/Graham/Jeff
What happens if you do a correlation of ERA (or RA) = a(Strike Rate) + b(Swinging Strike Rate) + c*(Ground Ball rate) + d for the last 3-5 years? Would this be better or worse than using something like FIP? Would all these be statistically significant? Are there others that would be statistically significant?
Edgar for Pres - July 27, 2008
I ran this test awhile back.
I have to run to soccer right now, but I’ll post a summary later tonight.
Matthew - July 27, 2008
And then he'll run at soccer, and I gather he'll stumble, rather than run, back home
Gomez - July 27, 2008
Better. Yes. Yes.
Over a 15 year study span using Retrosheet data
R2 of FIP to FIP was 0.15
Using a stepwise subset selection with a threshold probability of 0.05 to enter and leave the model yielded six qualifying variables:
strike rate
swinging strike rate
and the four batted ball types: gb, fb, ld and if.
and using a combo of those six can bump the year to year+1 R2 up to 0.25.
Matthew - July 27, 2008
Does Ponson getting his butt kicked by the Redsox
help our Jarrod case at all?
LantermanC - July 27, 2008
I doubt it.
I think the Yankees are fairly firm in their offer for the time being, whatever that offer may be, and I don’t think they’re likely to alter it until Thursday. I think the M’s realize that Washburn is about all that’s left, he’s who the Yankees “want”, and they have absolutely nothing to lose by hoping the Yankees blink and cave. If another option presents itself, or if the Yankees hold firm until the deadline, the M’s will take the offer.
Aaron Campeau - July 27, 2008
I wonder how much money of Jarrod's contract
we’d have to pick up, to get a Melky or that other guy?
LantermanC - July 27, 2008
No idea.
Aaron Campeau - July 27, 2008
I would think its more us getting Igawa...
than taking on some money for Wash.
I would have no idea why the Yankees would need us to take on some money for Washburn.
Igawa must feel great that the two biggest Japanese attraction cities in the US are fighting over who DOESNT get him.
Slica - July 27, 2008
In any event,
Sidney Ponson: IP 4.0 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1BB 1SO 1HR
ThundaPC - July 27, 2008
Funny how Joh had his one of his best, if not THE best game he's had in weeks
on the day when a pitcher who’s thrown him under the bus nearly the entire first quarter of the season possibly makes his last start as a Mariner.
Coach Owens - July 27, 2008
I'd call it "thank God he's almost gone!" syndrome
seattlebruin - July 27, 2008
Hypothesis
Sindey Ponson is the second luckiest pitcher in baseball after Justin Duchscherer.
JI - July 27, 2008
No kidding.
He has a job pitching still, imagine that!
Slica - July 27, 2008
Jarrod is Yours and We're Not Taking Him Back
Last Fan Of Jose Lopez - July 27, 2008
Hay guyz!
I know a team that has LH bullpen help AND a SS to trade…
seattlebruin - July 28, 2008
God it's such a simple trade.
It would look good for them because Rhodes is a proven vet and Yuni is !!! at D, and would be amazing for us because they are not and LaRoche is awesome
dbroncos31 - July 28, 2008
The best thing Richie Sexson has done for us this year:
Sexson: Washburn would be big help
gently caress yes.
dbroncos31 - July 28, 2008
Holy fuck that would be awesome.
Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll get done, because I think Lee will keep asking too much for a smart GM like Cashman to go for. For fuck’s sake, settle for Gardner already. It’d be perfect.
Faux - July 28, 2008
Must've been retrobution for out-fishing him or something...
PositivePaul - July 28, 2008
What's sad is that Silva is our next Washburn.
We have another 3.5 years of doing this.
Wilder. - July 28, 2008
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