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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 41-67
Orioles: 51-56

GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs Garrett Olson*
Game 2: Felix Hernandez vs Jeremy Guthrie
Game 3: Carlos Silva vs Daniel Cabrera

Garrett Olson is sort of Baltimore's Jarrod Washburn without the burdensome contract. He doesn't throw too many strikes, he doesn't get many groundballs, he doesn't miss many bats, but he doesn't do any of those three horrendously either so he ends up just being thoroughly mediocre. Sounds like an exciting match up does it not?

Guthrie's strikeout and walk ratios have regressed a bit this year despite a few more missed bats and the same number of overall strikes. He's allowed a few less homeruns though so he's roughly average this year.

Cabrera's throwing a few more strikes this year and getting a few more groundballs, but he's also missing no bats and allowing more line drives than before. 5.66 tRA. Another fantastic pitching duel surely awaits.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Ramon Hernandez
1 Kevin Millar
2 Brian Roberts^
3 Melvin Mora
S Juan Castro
L Luke Scott*
C Adam Jones
R Nick Markakis*
D Aubrey Huff*

Adam Jones stops by to say fuck you that's what. I hope he remembers our unheard cries for him from 2007.

I know he doesn't.

CONTEXT

There's a curious aspect to human endurance that is exemplified in many disparate ways but is probably most relatably illustrated with an athletic analogy. I used to do a fair amount of long-distance running back in college. Nothing competitive, it was just the best option to get reliable exercise stuck on an urban campus. There's a saying in running that "the last mile is the hardest" that I always found almost completely false. Personally, I found the second or third mile always the hardest, but nevertheless; the last mile was always the easiest. Why? Because the end was finally in sight.

Be it running a marathon or even something as simple as carrying something heavy across a moderate distance, you'll usually notice that you get an extra little bit of adrenaline as you near the end. It's only natural, the body holds back from giving 100% since it doesn't know just how far it's going to have to go and when it sees the end coming up soon, it's able to release that reserve in order to make sure the goal is accomplished.

The downside is that sometimes that end is an illusion. Sometimes you expel those last bits of get-up-and-go in the final mile, finish the marathon, and then find out that you have to go run a whole 'nother damn race. And that moment of realization, that "oh god are you serious? I cannot do this." moment? That can be downright soul crushing.

This, this was supposed to be the end, the finish. This was to be the first start of Jarrod Washburn's that was not made because he was now wearing some other uniform. It's been 30 months that have felt like 300 and we had hope that it was finally over. We saw the finish line, ran toward it with glee and then had Lee Pelekoudas just tell us to keep running with no promise as to when, or even if, it will end. I am so goddamn happy that it's Friday.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Dave
Hair of the Dog Brewing. Portland, OR

With all due respect to Sam Adams Utopias and it's 25% ABV, Hair of the Dog Dave, if you're able to find it, clocks in at 29% (yes, 58 proof). Produced by taking Hair of the Dog Adam, itself a fine treat, and freezing it in order to reduce the water volume by two-thirds, Dave is the heartiest beer that I've yet to see, hear, encounter or even spread made up rumors about.

0 recs  |  69 comments

Comments

I have a feeling Jarrod is going to have the shit regressed out of him today.
Ah, Dave

you and I have spent a few good evenings together. Which has led me to a few not-so-good next mornings. I love living in Portland.

After the series,

let’s kidnap GS52 and AJ (and have someone grab Tillman) and force the O’s to take back the trade.

They never called no backsies…

I'm pretty sure that the 2002 CBA

included a “no backsies” clause – I think that’s why the players were willing to strike, to get that put in there.

Did many backsies occur before then?
Well, no, but the possibility was always there
I think the Yankees pulled a backsies this past week on Washburn
Damn that Selig
This series is unnecessary.
I like the phrase "sane number of overall strikes."

This separates a middling starter like Guthrie, from the insane ones at both ends of the distribution.

Oh, and nothing on Cabrera? Or have we discussed that one to death?
I can’t think of another guy who’s so transformed himself from a peripherals point of view without injury being the cause. And yet, despite going from 9.55 K/9 to 7.31 K/9 to 4.93 K/9, he’s still basically the same pitcher – FIP/xFIP in the 5 range.
His strike rate is up a bit, but it’s been at 59% before in his career, and that’s when he was K’ing 9 a game. His velocity’s down a bit, but I wouldn’t think it’d be enough to halve his K rate in two years.
Nothing terribly odd in his splits, other than the fact that his K rate has dropped even more precipitously against righties, which I guess I wouldn’t expect.
What’s his tRA in 2007 and 2008?

The third blurb was on Cabrera, I simply forgot to explicitly mention his name.
I saw it this time; that's odd - just didn't see it the first read-through.

Is he really getting more grounders? Fangraphs has him at 49.5% in 2007 and 49.8% now. Basically a dead heat. The LD rate sure jumped, though.

One weird thing – his pitch fx player cards show very different FB movement in 2008 than 2007. That may be partially due to lower speed in 2008 (esp. on z break), but that’ll be interesting to watch. I’d still like to know what the YTY correlation for break is, to understand if Cabrera’s 2008 averages are within random variation, or if Baltimore told him to do something different, or what.

What was his tRA in 2007?

I have him at 49.4 after 48.5 last year on grounders, but I use a different source (MLB) than FanGraphs (BIS)

His tRA in 2007 was 5.00

I somehow came across tickets to all three games of this series

Because if there’s one thing I need, it’s spending my weekend watching the M’s play the Orioles.

Isn’t Daniel Cabrera currently suspended?

He did just get suspended yesterday, but he remains the listed probable starter. he might be appealing the suspension.
His appeal: Dude, I'm Daniel Cabrera, you know how bad my control is
now that made me laugh
Your running point is spot-on.

The beginning of a run is always fine because your refreshed and the end is fine for the reasons you stated. The middle, oh my god, I hated the middle. You’re wondering if in fact the run will ever end, cursing yourself for doing this. I never really ran to run, but always had to run for football, baseball, hockey, etc. The worst would be the times we would run on trails in the woods and you never knew exactly how long you’d be going for. You’d convince yourself after a while that “once we get past this hill we’ll see the finish;” upon cresting the hill you would realize you were so wrong. I don’t think I have ever gone from feeling relieved/thrilled to utterly and completely crushed as fast as I have when that false ending appears.

Anyone noticed How white of a team the Red Sox are right now?

Varitek, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lowell (white??), Bay, Ellsbury, Drew, Lester, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, Buchholz, Masterson, Timlin, bench (Cash, Casey, Lowrie)
7 players not named. Does this percentage seem unusually high, or is it just me?

It doesn't seem high to the Blue Jays
David Eckstein's whiteness actually cancels out other players

So basically him plus Vernon Wells is 2 white guys,

Baseball has become much more white over the last 15 years.
More white, or just less black?

Hispanics now ~ 30%.
27% was the high-water mark for african-americans in MLB, in the mid 70s. I guess it’s possible that the growth in asian/hispanic players has been more than cancelled out, but I’m not really sure.
If the percentage of Caucasians has grown, it can’t have grown by that much.
Have you heard the percentages have changed substantially in the past 15 years?

Not sure

I know there’s a crisis with less black people playing. But when you look at the rosters of the Jays and Cards… well Jesus.

I don't know if it's a 'crisis'...

It’s a growing concern I think. Though when they interviewed Rollins and Sabathia about the lack of black players, some of the things they said were border-line racist I thought.

Flagged for the misuse of the word racist in context of a serious discussion.
Percentage of African-American players across baseball?

Eight. Lowest it’s been in history.

Might want to rethink that "in history".

I’m sure there was less than 8% before integration.

Good point.

If I were standing right now, I’d stand corrected.

What percentage of players are American?

African-Americans make up 12% of the American population. So, if 2/3 of the players are American, then we should expect only 8% of the players to be African-American.

Wait - if 30% of players are hispanic (marc w's figure)

then that necessarily forces the number of American players down to 70%.

Add in the non-hispanic, non-American players (Ichiro, Jason Bay) and then that 8% number starts to look about right. Maybe even a bit high.

Jacoby Ellsbury is Navajo.
JOBAS AN INDIAN!!

OOPS NATIVE AMERICAN BUT IT MUST BE THE SPIRITS AND SHIT THAT MAKES HIM SOOOOOOO FUCKING AWESOME!!!!!!! AAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

//overheard at a Yankees game late last season.

I still like Yankees fans more than Angels fans.
Eyebrows excluded, of course.
Wow, you'll kiss anyone's ass, eh?

Did I mention that the AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH at the end was actually what he did? And then followed it up with other random shouting sounds. I laughed so hard I cried.

Yankee fans are occasionally entertaining.

Angels fans, for the most part, are just douchebags.

Living in Boston this past week was beyond awful

Not only did I have to deal with the typical terrible Red Sox fans on my commute home, but there were a surprisingly large number of Angels fans. It was horrible.

digress - MAD TV

anyone catch MADTV last Saturday with their presidential campaign commercial? I couldn’t believe what i was watching.

The very occasional funny they stumble across is not worth the horror of watching that show otherwise.
yes

but I’m telling you it was borderline racist against Native Americans. Actually it was worse than how Natives Americans were portrayed in mickey mouse/tom and jerry cartoons.

Also,


We appreciate proper letter case at the beginning of sentences here. Thanks for your cooperation.

Very polite. Well done.
I find it inherently rude to criticise someone's writing (as opposed to ideas).

So I try to make it as palatable as possible.

MADTV has never been funny.
MAD TV is so bad...

Everything I’ve always learned from acting and improv is that being subtle, and acting normal in a wacky situation is what generally gets the bigger laugh. It’s also funnier to agree with people than to disagree because it’s harder to do.

Essentially the formula for MAD TV is two people hanging out, one person says something the other disagrees with, then one guy starts waving his arms in the air wackily screaming at them how they’re wrong and stupid and oh my god we’re in such a craaaaaaazy situation, look how wacky this is!

Why is it that Will Ferrell always could garner a bigger laugh out of people on SNL than anyone could’ve gotten on MAD TV? Because when Will Ferrell was asked something wacky, he’d just say something like “Yes, that is true.” and he’d have a straight face and act very very normal in a wacky situation. It’s funny because a rational person would disagree or be angry, so the fact that it’s not what you’d think is what makes it funny.

Disagreement and wackiness is used all the time to try and be funny but rarely works. The people who write MAD TV, I would guess, also enjoy clowns doing cartwheels and gratuitous punches to the nuts while hanging out with their friends. It seems almost no modern comedy writer realizes it’s acting normal when faced with a wacky situation, or agreeing with absurd and rude assumptions that creates comedy people will truly remember.

Sorry for the rant.

MadTV is the HH of comedy.
I'm amazed it's even still on TV.

There must be something else Comedy Central can put on the air.

Unfortunately "something else" is the new Gong Show, etc.
Yeah, it's one of the worst shows I've ever seen. And always has been.
Yeah, improv rule number one

always say yes.

"Yes, and..."
See, that's the key to successful comedy

Make the situation zig when people expect it to zag… and don’t ham it up because the harder you try to be funny, the less funny it is.

The Red Sox were the last team to integrate,

but I think this is more coincidence than anything. Boston’s less of a racist city than it used to be and the fans support(ed) Pedro, Manny, and Ortiz. Even the little old Asian lady who was my boss at the bank I worked at in Boston used to get excited for Pedro days.

I had my first Hair of the Dog brew a couple days ago.

I had a bottle of the Fred. And it was quite tasty. Pretty sweet, so one was probably enough, but I was impressed.

I imagine the Dave is hard to find?

Not in Portland.

Most whole foods/new seasons have it, and Belmont Station usually carries it too. I’d imagine that whole foods in Seattle would have it as well.

I should have mentioned I'm in San Diego.

So it’ll probably be harder. But I’ll look around.

Whole Foods in Seattle does not.

Adam and Fred are the only ones I’ve ever seen. I have found Doggie Claws at Bottle works but that’s it in Seattle.

At one point...

...there was the whole >10% thing that prevented ANY non-liquor store in WA from selling ales that “potent.” I’m curious if that’s still the case, and if so, why it might be impossible to find in Seattle (or anywhere else in WA for that matter).

Definitely not the case.

Dogfish 120 min is easily found.

Not in San Diego. :(

I had to go online. But it was worth it.

Right, and most every barleywine would run afoul of that rule as well

It’s interesting that many other states still do limit alc. % in beer. Georgia just recently upped the limit on beer from 6%. This led to a famous floor speech in the Georgia legislature from a lawmaker opposed to the change, which I’m sure everyone saw…

Still haven’t seen Dave; I’ll have to check around T-town.

Is it seasonal?

I never saw it on tap either

I've never seen it on tap

and I’m not sure if it’s seasonal, but Belmont Station usually has it (I say “usually” but I only make it there 2-3x a year), as does Whole Foods.

Yay, I get to see Bitey vs. No control.

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