In the end, the posturing by Scott Boras ended up being just that as his clients mostly ended up signed and only Yonder Alonso and Brian Matusz got big league deals. Three first rounds did not sign and all of them are significant.
JOSH FIELDS, #20, MARINERS
Yep, no official signing. However, this isn't what you might think at first. Fields is a college senior which means the August 15 deadline never applied to him in the first place. Instead, the Mariners own his rights all the way until June 1st, 2009.
The underground rumblings have been saying for some time that this deal has been all but sewn for around $2MM (relative slot: $1.3MM) and that the Mariners were just holding off on announcing it in order not to incur the wrath of Selig for being the first to wreck the slot. Until you hear a good source say otherwise, assume this will get announced at some point this year and possibly soon as now there's no reason to hold off.
GERRIT COLE, #28, YANKEES
It's always nice to see the Yankees miss out on a good prospect. The Yankees will acquire the #30 overall pick in the 2009 draft as compensation.
But potentially much bigger than these
AARON CROW, #9, NATIONALS
The Nationals and Crow could not agree to a contract with the reported difference only being about $500,000 in bonus money. Why should we care? Well this means the Nationals get an additional draft pick at what I believe will be #10 for 2009. This means the Nationals will have both a top-3 and another top-10 pick.
We see from this year's draft that the #10 pick is going to be costing around the $3-4MM mark in bonus to sign and that top-3 picks are typically going to check in around $6MM. Do the Nationals, who just let Crow walk away over $500-750K, splurge $10MM+ next summer on just those two picks? Furthermore, the Nationals will be under pressure to take a pick they know they'll sign at #10 because if they fail again they get no compensation.
All of this means that the Nationals might be a lot more cost-conscious with their first pick, the potential first overall. If the Mariners are able to hang on and snag the second overall, they just got more likely to be able to have their choice of the top talent after Washington pulls a Royals and tabs a first overall pick for signability/cost reasons.
1 recs | 19 comments
Kind of surprised that the Mariners didn't make the Fields announcement at the deadline
I wonder what the holdup is now.
Graham MacAree - August 16, 2008
Is it too soon to be looking at the #1 pick in the 2010 draft?
PDXTai - August 16, 2008
Yes
Graham MacAree - August 16, 2008
More
Jeff,
I like your reasoning about how this will effect the Nats approach to the draft. This definitely could force them to take a signability pick #1 overall.
However, if they do make the right decision and go for Strasburg (this, of course, assumes that he retains his status as the no-brainer #1 overall talent), this is still good for the M’s.
Crow adds another excellent college pitching prospect to a group that already has great depth in that demographic (Strasburg, plus Alex White, Kyle Gibson, and Andy Oliver). If Strasburg is gone, and the other college arms don’t impress, Crow could be a legit option for the M’s.
Crow was consistently ranked in the top-5 draft prospects last year, and that was after a relatively poor final stretch. He was considered the top college pitcher for a good chunk of the season. After a year in the indy leagues, he would be very likely to be the first prospect from the draft to reach the majors. Not many pitchers have his combination of stuff and polish.
This is good news for the M’s on several levels.
Jerry - August 16, 2008
My name isn't Jeff.
Matthew - August 16, 2008
Is that you Graham?
TheBishop - August 16, 2008
It is now.
pdb - August 16, 2008
Oops
Sorry about that.
Jerry - August 16, 2008
Disagree
I’d rather see the Mariners take a younger, fresh-out-of-college player than the previous years’ #10 pick who has been pitching in the indy leagues all season.
katal - August 16, 2008
He dropped
Crow dropped in the draft, and most authorities on the matter had him ranked highly.
Obviously, things will change between now and the draft, but the early word on this draft is that it isn’t a particularly strong one. Crow could be among the top 3 talents in this draft. That is all that should matter. Who cares where he was picked last year, and what he did in the meantime? The M’s should just pick the best player, period.
It is way to early to argue over who is better, especially when we don’t even know which selection the M’s will have. Things always change. But having another top pitching prospect available in a draft where the M’s will have a high pick is never a bad thing.
Jerry - August 16, 2008
One more thing
Tanner Scheppers also didn’t sign. He was the best college pitcher outside Crow and Brian Matusz last season before an arm injury late in the season.
If he show that he is healthy, that is just one more good college arm in next years draft.
Jerry - August 16, 2008
If we drafted Crow we would have an unprecedented opportunity
to dead meme MST3K jokes.
JI - August 16, 2008
In the not too distant future, next Sunday AD (La La La)
thewyrm - August 16, 2008
Or they could feel like breaking the bank since they didn't have to this year.
Not entirely likely, as some ownerships have been known to pocket the money rather than rolling it over.
I haven’t found anything on M’s signings, but I know out ninth through eleventh rounders are going back to school. Suck.
JY - August 16, 2008
Matthew, trust me on this: there is no chance whatsoever that the Nationals will fail to sign Strasburg if they draft him.
None whatsoever. I’ve paid a lot of attention to this franchise’s moves over the past few seasons. They splurged massively last year (multiple signings above slot money, going waaaay above slot for their lower round picks who the scouts were high on, etc.), and they signed ALL their top picks, every last one. As irked as I am about the Crow issue this year, I have to believe they simply weren’t willing to spend the $$$ on a prospect they weren’t entirely in love with given what they would have the opportunity to spend for next year.
If they draft Strasburg, it’s inconceivable that they won’t make the deal happen. And it’s equally nutty that they would pass on him for money reasons – they haven’t done that yet in the last two drafts, why would they now?
esoteric - August 16, 2008
Additionally, the idea that they would pass on Strasburg for $$ reasons is silly given that the Nationals' entire long-term philosophy is based on farm development
The project is being driven by Mike Rizzo, who hopefully will be the Nats GM next year (he’s the director of the minor league system right now).
esoteric - August 16, 2008
How will it work for the Nationals if they..
suck and fail to sign to sign either pick next year?
Do they three top 10’s in 2010?
craig3410 - August 16, 2008
No, they would have two picks. Compensation picks do not carry over to the next year.
From above:
Furthermore, the Nationals will be under pressure to take a pick they know they’ll sign at #10 because if they fail again they get no compensation.
RATW - August 16, 2008
I'm not saying it's right...
But Adam had an interesting post relevant to this over at lonestarball:
http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/8/4/586633/draft-picks-slotting-and-c
Basically, he suggests that the Nats may have suddenly taken a hard line because of shady dealings they got caught for in Latin America.
GhettoBear04 - August 16, 2008
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.