or:
| Last | First | Team | tRA | xOuts | Year | tRA+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floyd | Gavin | PHI | 8.02 | 165 | 2006 | 63 |
| Batista | Miguel | SEA | 7.67 | 257 | 2008 | 61 |
| Chen | Bruce | BAL | 7.57 | 182 | 2006 | 67 |
| Elarton | Scott | KCA | 7.39 | 329 | 2006 | 69 |
| Nomo | Hideo | LAN | 7.32 | 247 | 2004 | 64 |
| Waechter | Doug | TBA | 7.22 | 202 | 2004 | 68 |
| Bacsik | Mike | WAS | 7.20 | 315 | 2007 | 70 |
| Davies | Kyle | KCA | 7.19 | 154 | 2007 | 69 |
| Fossum | Casey | TBA | 7.18 | 158 | 2007 | 69 |
| Correia | Kevin | SFN | 7.10 | 156 | 2005 | 68 |
| Mulder | Mark | SLN | 7.05 | 291 | 2006 | 71 |
| Table 1: xOuts >= 150. ~IP > 50 |
||||||
2 recs | 80 comments
Gavin Floyd and Mark Mulder??
Wow. I wouldn’t have guessed those two would be on this list.
Thingray - August 5, 2008
Huh, two Rays? Ouch.
R.J. Anderson - August 5, 2008
Just suprised it was only 2
P Brady - August 5, 2008
Surprised*
Dammit, I always type a bagillion times more at LL
P Brady - August 5, 2008
Sadly, you're correct.
R.J. Anderson - August 5, 2008
I had the same thoughts for the Mariners. Where are you 2007 Horatio?
Jed MC - August 5, 2008
And Weaver.
Wilder. - August 5, 2008
Weaver was pretty decent
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
You have a soft spot for him, eh?
That writeup on his awesome game was one of my favorite pieces from you.
Faux - August 5, 2008
It's not even a soft spot
Weaver wasn’t that bad last year
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
According to THT, his LD% against was only 17.4%.
Walks were a little elevated from the past few years (not as high as his 04 campaign, though). HR/G down from prior seasons…
What gives? What the heck happened?
BrianL - August 5, 2008
63.7% LOB%
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
That'll do it.
BrianL - August 5, 2008
Let it be said that Weaver wasn't a *good* pitcher last year
he just wasn’t terrible.
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
5.38 tRA
Carlos Silva (2008): 5.48
Matthew - August 5, 2008
I still think we should have re-signed him
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
In place of Silva?
In a second.
pygmalion - August 5, 2008
Oh I understand that.
It’s just that it doesn’t look like his results should have been that awful.
BrianL - August 5, 2008
Is that current?
I thought Graham said during the GT that he was over 8 now?
Faux - August 5, 2008
That was a guess based on his performance last night
Matthew’s numbers are right
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
Astoundingly he only allowed one line drive
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
Oh, OK.
I was just skimming the GT this morning, and saw that.
Faux - August 5, 2008
So in order to continue the trend if suck thats gone Moyer>Pinero>Ho>Batista
We would literally have to the worst pitched season in the last 10 years. Neato.
Robert - August 5, 2008
Nah, last five years.
Matthew said half decade.
R.J. Anderson - August 5, 2008
I am shocked that '07 HoRam and Jeff Weaver are not on this list.
The Alaskan - August 5, 2008
Weaver was pretty decent
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
Ho's not far off though
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
Almost a full point away
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
Weaver's BABIP was horrific.
Staggeringly bad.
Llewdor - August 5, 2008
I am staggered that his BABIP against was so awful with a not-that-bad LD rate
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
It's situations like this in which we could really use the sort of information that HITf/x would provide
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
PITCHf/x has been such an eye-opener for me.
I can’t wait to see what HITf/x can uncover.
BrianL - August 5, 2008
We'll never have to look at BABIP - LD ever again
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
That will be glorious.
BrianL - August 5, 2008
It's so much better than the alternatives
Everyone looked at BABIP w/o batted-ball types before.
BABIP -LD still seems really cool and cutting edge to me, albeit with major drawbacks. Hell, it wasn’t THAT long ago that no one knew what the hell BABIP was or why they should give a damn about it.
Progress!
now get off my lawn.
marc w - August 5, 2008
The others in that table
Most of the xOut figs are quite low, only a couple are up around the 300+ mark.
Is it fair to assume that quite a few of those seasons were injury-ravaged?
MarkE - August 5, 2008
or, I guess, they were just replaced/demoted?
MarkE - August 5, 2008
Most teams are smart enough to not let pitchers with a tRA above 7 continue to pitch.
Matthew - August 5, 2008
Glad to see we're learning from our mistakes...
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steve Traschel donning a M’s uni next season, because he looks good in blue.
Omerta - August 5, 2008
What's Gavin Floyd's TRA Look like this year?
He looks like he’s turned around some.
Faux - August 5, 2008
4.84
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
Isn't there somewhere we can look these up ourselves?
Llewdor - August 5, 2008
If you have access to Graham's computer, sure
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
Damn.
We need a daily leaderboard or something like it.
Llewdor - August 5, 2008
Not public yet
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
There will be very shortly
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
This is probably a dumb question, but whatever...
Can someone explain how the Cardinals become SLN? Or the Royals become KCA? Is there some obvious pattern I’m missing?
The Alaskan - August 5, 2008
KCA = Kansas City, American League
SLN = St Louis, National League
Faux - August 5, 2008
The N and A preserve the three-letter abbreviation
Jeff Sullivan - August 5, 2008
You could always go for STL
and KAN (I forget what broadcast I saw that on).
Faux - August 5, 2008
I adhere to MLB standards
Matthew - August 5, 2008
Source?
The Alaskan - August 5, 2008
Per
mlb.com St. Louis is STL and Kansas City is KC
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
I use team codes.
http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_04/day_24/
Matthew - August 5, 2008
You and your Gameday...
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
He just needs to be different.
Kirsten Schlewitz - August 5, 2008
Matthew's "special"
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
This is what I expected.
Most of the other teams just use the first three letters of the place. I can’t figure out why that didn’t hold up.
The Alaskan - August 5, 2008
Saint Louis Browns
were in the American League (-> Orioles in 1954). This made me think that maybe MLB just wanted to keep this clear. But the only KC team in the NL was the the Kansas City Cowboys were in the National League who played just one season in 1886.
So this is probably just a case of bureaucracy leading to uglier abbreviations (as happened to the state abbreviations once the Post Office got its way on using just 2-letters).
pygmalion - August 5, 2008
I always liked CWS for the White Sox
but that one’s a little unusual.
Two Rs and Two Ls - August 5, 2008
Post updated to add tRA+ to the mix.
Guess who’s worst!
Matthew - August 5, 2008
I thought he might be
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
I'm really excited because it sure looks like Batista is going to pitch more than anyone else on this list
257 xOuts with 50 games to go…
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
I wouldn't be sure about that.
If they bring RRS up, it could all be over real quick.
The Alaskan - August 5, 2008
Doubt he gets (m)any starts in Sept though.
RRS, possibly Morrow, Dickey and Bedard should all be vying for rotation turns by then.
Matthew - August 5, 2008
No floor
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
Are you in anyway suggesting that Miguel Batista doesn’t belong in a Major League rotation?
PascoJoe - August 5, 2008
I have a really hard time reconciling the Gavin Floyd of today with the Gavin Floyd of two years ago
Or even the Gavin Floyd of last year.
OlSalty - August 5, 2008
Batista
Remember when he grumbled about being slotted 5th in the rotation before the start of the season considering he was a “16-game winner”?
Wow, he sucks.
ThundaPC - August 5, 2008
Why should I trust this stat named "tRA"?
I know, I know, our community’s finest minds are working on it. But it’s not public yet, right? How is it calculated?
I don’t want to sound too pissy here – hey, I love my evil Lookout Landing overlords! – but I instantly discard all BP proprietary stats precisely because, however close they seem to come to my own assessments, they’re ultimately a “black box.” I’m intrigued by tRA, especially due to the massive pimping it’s been given by Graham, but can you understand my reluctance to see it constantly cited as the PRIMARY statistical determinant of pitcher quality until I’ve been able to kick the tires a bit?
[wonders if he is about to smell the inside of The Box]
esoteric - August 5, 2008
P.S. Miguel Batista sucks worse than The Simpsons after season 7 or so.
esoteric - August 5, 2008
I've done my best to ensure that it's not a black box though...
Short of sitting next to everyone and deriving the stuff on paper, my tRA posts have been designed to explain the calculations in enough detail for you to play with them yourselves.
Furthermore, if anyone wants last year’s spreadsheet to play with, all they need to do is ask (and I’ve said this a few times). I don’t want to be in the BP position of black boxing everything – I wrote a post about that strategy being detrimental to the advancement of research, but at the same time I don’t want to hold everyone’s hand as they work through the calculations.
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
PS: 'Not public' just means that the website Matthew and I are working on isn't ready for release yet
I think all the information you really need can be found in ‘the tRA post’ over in the reference section, or searching tRA through the archives and looking at my diaries on it.
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
tRA is no more black box than FIP or xFIP is.
Matthew - August 5, 2008
You previously mentioned the possibility of doing these for the minors
How much work are you looking at in terms of compiling data?
Gomez - August 5, 2008
Lots.
Matthew - August 5, 2008
Did you hear from Jeff Sackman about possibly
using his spider/bot to grab PBP data from MiLB.com?
Or do you need to create something specific to this project?
marc w - August 5, 2008
? through Graham's tRA posts he's made his method very clear
and it’s really not that hard to go back and re-create it from scratch given the data that he provided in those posts – if you made a quick spreadsheet, you could probably guesstimate tRA within ~5% just from the early 2008 data that Graham gave and fangraphs batted ball profiles
seattlebruin - August 5, 2008
? through?
Graham MacAree - August 5, 2008
I can attest that you can get pretty close within five minutes.
R.J. Anderson - August 5, 2008
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