2008 is done for Felix Hernandez and here's a quick rundown on what the year entailed:
Felix's year boiled down to his bad luck going away and him responding to that due fortune by regressing in just about every conceivable way. It's almost unfathomable how much of a step back this season is on a trend line. Don't get me wrong, these aren't career troubling regressions for the most part. The problem is that they arrest Felix's ascension. They are the most recent data points and thus have to be weighed the most heavily and suddenly when 2006-8 is viewed, you get a picture of a mostly horizontal slope rather than the upwards movement you would hope from a prospect. Perhaps pictures would make this easier to see:
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| Our hopes | Current state |
That's not to say Felix hasn't been a good pitcher this year; he has. And it's not to say that he cannot resume that climb in 2009; he can. It is to say that his future looks less bright now than it did six months ago. And that sucks.
1 recs | 37 comments
This season sucks.
Mariner Melee - September 25, 2008
Couldn't you just tell me my cat died or something?
We know his curve hasn’t been the same, and he throws too many fastballs. But do you see a reason for the rest of the regression?
Thingray - September 25, 2008
We'll be looking into pitch F/X extensively come winter.
We’ll see if anything shows up there.
Matthew - September 25, 2008
I am hoping for an Ervin Santana style career correction
Sec 108 - September 25, 2008
These are the times that I would kill to have reporters who reported useful shit
I would sincerely like to know what Stottlemyre and Charlton told Felix, and what, if anything, they’ve changed.
This is such an aberration that it goes beyond the whole ‘establish the fastball nonsense.’ Has their obsession with speed led them to change Felix’s 2-seam grip (I don’t know how you’d do this w/o making it a 4 seam grip, but whatever)? Is this pitch calling, or is this an adjustment the league’s made on the guy?
Felix has too much talent to stagnate – someone on this team is actively fighting against Felix’s talent. I’m sure of it. I just don’t know who.
There are times when pitching coaches just don’t matter very much, and times when they do. I’m starting to think ours is waaaay worse than replacement level and that Felix would add .10 to his 2009 tRA if the pitching coaches are replaced with bottles of Jarritos.
marc w - September 25, 2008
If I remember correctly, if you bury the two-seamer deeper into your hand
you get less velocity and more movement (which I’m pretty sure would generally equal more GB in Felix’ case).
Two Rs and Two Ls - September 25, 2008
That non-stop orgasm would probably isn't as good as it looks on paper anyway.
JI - September 25, 2008
It'd be tough to go out in public
mariners124m - September 25, 2008
He did hit 200 innings.
Slurvey - September 25, 2008
His % of PA ending in a swinging strikeout stayed constant
Thats good.
Edgar for Pres - September 25, 2008
Felix had trouble focusing this year on the account that he wanted to knock out Ichiro.
ThundaPC - September 25, 2008
Saw the grandslam live
We only had like 5 good moments this season. Happy I got to see one of them. Still a shame how he pitched most of this year.
phil333 - September 25, 2008
He leads MLB with a 4.000 Slg. %
Minimum plate appearances notwithstanding.
Big Jared - September 25, 2008
I've said it before, and will say it again...
Felix = overrated.
There, I said it.
I’m not saying he’s “bad” or that he’s not going to develop into an “ace” (he’s not there yet, and I’m still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt). But I will say that I’m all the more concerned, after this season, that he’s not ever going to become the über-stud that he had the potential to become. He’ll still go one to have a fine and solidly above-average, if not even pretty damn good career. But I just don’t see him developing into the HOF-level player that was projected for him when he was annointed “King.” Too much Freddy Garcia and not enough Pedro Martinez.
I’ve seen glimpses, certainly, and because of those glimpses, I still have hope for his future. But I’m back to being waaaaaaaaay more skeptical than I was even last year when I complained about him then. I’m patient enough to still appreciate his talent and what he still yet might become, but he’s been around long enough to give me some serious doubts, too.
PositivePaul - September 25, 2008
Felix isn't overrated.
Matthew - September 25, 2008
Felix is overrated
Felix’s talent isn’t
Jeff Sullivan - September 25, 2008
I think we have a pretty firm grasp on Felix's current level.
Matthew - September 25, 2008
We do, most don't
Jeff Sullivan - September 25, 2008
Yeah, but who's overrating him?
The national press? They largely ignore him because he plays for a shitty team.
The local press? I haven’t seen that.
Us? Clearly not.
Matthew - September 25, 2008
Perhaps I should say this:
until pretty recently Felix was overrated.
Jeff Sullivan - September 25, 2008
Until pretty recently?
Please expound. Are you suggesting the Felix Day et all hype is what has made him overrated?
dnc - September 25, 2008
I think we're all guilty of having expected too much from Felix in the short-term once it became clear that he was not fully developed
Jeff Sullivan - September 26, 2008
Felix is a few adjustments from realizing his awesome potential
He just needs to get with it and make those adjustments.
Gomez - September 25, 2008
Totally disagree
Nothing about his accomplishments at his age says anything but superstar. What’s overrated? His stuff? Nope. His results? Nope. His potential? Nope.
I just don’t see it man. What were you expecting from the kid? He’s already developed into an ace, in case you haven’t noticed. It’s arguable that this season wasn’t ace-like, but his last two absolutely were. I suppose you could say that he’s regressed from an ace, but your suggestion that he hasn’t reached that status in his career is just flat out wrong.
He had a down year. And he was still very good.
Go count the pitchers who have been better than Felix the past three years and tell me he’s not an ace.
dnc - September 25, 2008
Well, for one thing...
He’s been pretty terrible vs. Anaheim and Texas, for the most part, throughout his career. He’s had some good games against good offenses (Game #2, 2007, in Boston, for example), but for the most part he has massive problems facing teams whose offenses are strong.
I don’t hate him, certainly, and I think he’s the best pitcher the M’s have had since RJ. He’s certainly got time on his side, and I still think he’s a good pitcher. And that he’s still got a pretty good chance at having a pretty awesome career.
I know I disagree with pretty much everyone here. It’s something I’ve lived with for awhile. But with all the hype surrounding him since pretty much forever, he’s still got a ways to go to live up to it. That’s all I’m saying, and why I think WE are overrating him.
He needs to develop his brain to catch up to his talent. He’s had three full seasons to make those adjustments that he needs to make, and in my mind he took a pretty big step backwards by not moving forward. He seems to be making the same mistakes and not really learning from them — especially against tough offenses. You can point fingers at pitching coaches and to the organization’s terrible pitching philosophies, I suppose, but if he was truly the über-talent that he was hyped to be, he’d push past that as a professional. Yes, he’s still young, and still had a pretty damn fine career considering his age especially. No doubt the talent’s there, too. But he has to learn how to harness it, and he’s got a ways to go there. I’m tired of using “He’s still young yet…” as an excuse. He’s been around for three full seasons now, and still has a lot more room yet. He’ll get there, probably, but I’ve just seen more Freddy Garcia than Pedro Martinez so far.
PositivePaul - September 25, 2008
One he develops some consistency against left handed batters he's going to be unbeatable.
..and he’s still ahead of where most hall of famers his age were
JI - September 25, 2008
Dude
I’m not using he’s still young as an excuse. I’m saying that despite his youth he was a full blown ace in 06 and 07, and while he took a step back this year he was still what most would consider a very good #2.
Like I said, the list of pitchers who have been better than Felix has the past three years is very short, youth or no youth. Using xFIP (I’m not as familiar with tRA – if there’s a glaring difference between the two that tRA overlooks please let me know) Felix was second in the AL in 06, second again in 07, and this year he dropped all the way down to 9th.
That’s a borderlne Cy Young guy for two years, and a solid “ace” the third year. Pretty hard to be “overrated” when you’re easily a top 5 pitcher in your league over the past three seasons. And yeah, he’s already fully on a HOF path, he doesn’t need to “develop into” anything to be that kind of pitcher. He already is. He just needs to keep it up and stay healthy.
I think you’re just being a contrarian for contrarianisms sake, here.
dnc - September 25, 2008
xFIP doesn't account for batted ball types other than to regress HR/FB rate.
Use tRA. It’s better.
Matthew - September 25, 2008
It doesn't account for gb/fb?
For some reason I thought it did?
dnc - September 26, 2008
Not a contrarian, a skeptic.
That’s all I’m saying.
He won me over after Opening Day last year, sealed by his Boston start. Previously, I’d been a huge skeptic. After those two starts, I stopped being skeptical. After this season, however, I’m back to being skeptical of his development track. Looking at the metrics Matthew posted above, I see signs that instead of making the progress we all assumed he’d make, he took some steps backwards. That raised some red flags — along with all the talk about his + curveball disappearing (possibly because of his injuries) — and I’m back to being more skeptical.
If you look at his more traditional stats (ERA+, HR allowed, etc.,) he actually made a little bit of progress. Maybe he needed to take a step backwards in order for his results to take a step forward. Fine, whatever. He’s still not to the level that the expectations were “enthroned” upon him. He’s a good pitcher, clearly, and I like his chances for becoming even better. I’m just, well, skeptical that he’ll remain healthy enough and become heady enough to take it to that gear that we all expect him to find one of these days. That’s all — skeptical. Concerned. Conservative. Whatever.
It was ingrained in me that Felix was going to come in and kick ass after getting time to adjust. I guess I expected more along the lines of what Tim Lincecum’s done out of the gates. It seems yet again after a third full season of Felix that we’re still waiting for him to make that “final” adjustment. To me – that day will arrive when he finally is able to mow through offenses like Texas’ and Anaheim’s and Boston’s a bit more consistently — not just dominate the cakewalk offenses.
PositivePaul - September 26, 2008
Skepticism is good.
I try to think this way whenever I find myself getting excited about young players, but I’m not very good at it.
Aaron Campeau - September 26, 2008
I know you hate this argument, Paul, but remember that Felix is
2 years younger than Tim Lincecum, a year younger than David Price, 2.5 years younger than Cole Hamels, etc.
As frustrating as the development arc is above, we all need to remember that a ‘typical’ career arc isn’t a perfectly straight, upwards pointing line on a graph. We should have expected bumps in the road… we didn’t expect them because Felix has been so god damn beautiful for 2 plus years, but we still should’ve expected the occasional season in which he was merely excellent as opposed to truly elite.
I’ve said it before, if he plateaus here for 5-6 years, sure, then we’ll know.
For context, Randy Johnson’s age-22 season was spent in the Florida State League, where he walked over 7 per 9.
marc w - September 26, 2008
Not only that, but Timmy
a) Pitches in the National League, and b) Pitches in the National League West.
Now, I love Lincecum, and think we were morons for passing on him, but you can’t rag Felix for not getting it done Texas and Anaheim and Boston and then compare him to a guy who faces consistently inferior offenses to those Felix does. It’s not at all a fair comparison.
dnc - September 26, 2008
Ahem, that should read "done *against* Texas and Anaheim," etc...
Why don’t I proofread?
dnc - September 26, 2008
I'm not comparing him to Lincecum.
They’re different pitchers, and yeah, pitch in different leagues.
All I’m saying is that people said Felix would come in and be a perpetual Cy Young level player after only a bit of adjustment. Hence the “King” moniker. Sorta like what Tim Lincecum did this year — and that’s as far as I’m taking the comparison. It’s been three full years and that hasn’t happened. I’m not saying it’s out of the question for him to still develop into that type of pitcher — in fact I’d say it’s very likely he will. Indeed he’s young and still has room to grow. He’s shown signs of fulfilling those expectations, but he hasn’t reached them yet. He made some strides forward that these stats don’t show — pitching 200 innings without having too many “bad” outings, especially in a season as pathetic as the Mariners had. Showed signs of maturity in that regard, too.
PositivePaul - September 30, 2008
Before you all go to jump off the nearest bridge:
Pedro didn’t really break out until his fourth season starting (and he had a full year in the pen before that), and he was older than Felix then. If Felix could get a full year of pitching in instead of trying to recover from injuries (die in a fire Carlos Beltran), he’ll finally be able to get his best stuff back and resume his ascent to the throne. Besides, even if we don’t get Pedro Martinez, I’m fine with Brandon Webb or Roy Halladay.
Crystal for DH - September 25, 2008
I'm just glad he escaped the year without a major injury
Robert - September 26, 2008
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