Calling back to a post from last March...
(minimum: 60 IP both seasons, pitchers switching between the rotation and bullpen excluded)
Biggest Fastball MPH Increase, %, 2007-2008:
1. Jeremy Sowers, +5.0%
2. Jon Lester, +2.4%
3. Ervin Santana, +2.4%
4. Jose Valverde, +2.2%
5. John Danks, +2.0%
6. Jesse Litsch, +1.8%
7. Roy Halladay, +1.8%
8. Cliff Lee, +1.7%
9. Randy Wolf, +1.6%
10. Jon Rauch, +1.5%
Biggest Fastball MPH Decrease, %, 2007-2008:
1. Scott Olsen, -2.6%
2. Dan Wheeler, -2.0%
3. Tom Glavine, -1.9%
4. Francisco Rodriguez, -1.8%
5. Daniel Cabrera, -1.8%
6. Tim Wakefield, -1.8%
7. Chris Young, -1.7%
8. Manny Corpas, -1.5%
9. Jason Grilli, -1.4%
10. Heath Bell, -1.4%
Nothing extraordinary, but there you go. Note that the top list includes six pitchers who saw their tRAs improve by at least 15%, whereas the bottom list includes seven pitchers who saw their tRAs get worse by at least 15%. Velocity isn't everything, but it's clearly important.
Most interesting, I think, is Jon Lester - this past season, he exceeded his previous career-high for innings by more than 50, but he nevertheless threw his best fastball and, instead of fatiguing towards the end, saw his velocity peak down the stretch:
Some credit has to go to John Farrell and the rest of the Boston coaching staff for showing Lester how to pace himself over a full season. Given his stamina and performance, everybody involved over there did one hell of a job.
Felix, by the way, lost about a tick. Morrow gained a tick despite throwing 45% of his pitches as a starter.
0 recs | 47 comments
Too bad
“The radiation gave him superpowers” jokes have been played.
JI - January 13, 2009
Good stuff.
I’m surprised Daniel Cabrera was only fifth. He looked like he was throwing BP last season.
I also like how Litsch pumped his fastball all the way up to almost 90. Go Jesse! Gotta love a guy who gets ground balls and refuses to walk anyone.
Teej - January 13, 2009
Cabrera only dropped from 94.3 to 92.6
but back in 2005 he was all the way up at 96.2. His fastball is slower, his slider is slower, his curveball is slower, and his changeup is slower. He appears to be broken beyond repair.
Jeff Sullivan - January 13, 2009
Breaks my heart.
He’s one of the guys I root for like crazy.
Teej - January 13, 2009
Pairing him up with Mazzone seemed like such a good idea
Jeff Sullivan - January 13, 2009
Turns out Mazzone wasn't made of magic.
JI - January 13, 2009
You mean that Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux were just good pitchers in their prime?
Fin - January 13, 2009
Nah, Mazzone just quit injecting everyone with steroids
johnbai - January 14, 2009
Can the bullpen save him and turn him into something effective (although not very valuable)?
Or is he just garbage at this point?
Edgar for Pres - January 13, 2009
If
he can’t do well at home with the Nationals this year, he may be destined for a 6th inning role or to be the long man.
mlbnotebook - January 14, 2009
And mixes his pitches.
The way those Toronto starters throw everything is really interesting. Everyone on their staff aside from Halladay and Burnett threw 5 different pitches regularly (and now Burnett’s gone – I love how they’re coaching these kids).
It’s like that can take any competent minor-league pitcher and say "be unpredictable, and throw strikes) and suddenly they’re above average major league pitchers.
Llewdor - January 14, 2009
The Ryan Franklin method?
It can’t just be pitch mix – I’d love to learn more about what they’re telling guys like Litsch.
marc w - January 14, 2009
To bitch about not getting any run support after he allows 7 runs?
JI - January 14, 2009
You've probably seen the articles, but Fangraphs has had some good stuff on him.
Golebiewski on his pitches.
Dave on his probably undeserved demotion in August.
Seidman on the whole rotation’s pitch-mixing.
Pretty fascinating stuff.
Teej - January 14, 2009
Numbers are fucking awesome
Would be interesting to look at any changes in secondary stuff, movement with the fastball, changes in LD%, HR rates, BABIP, and all kinds of other shit.
JLC - January 13, 2009
Agreed
Simply awesome
mlbnotebook - January 14, 2009
Roids?
Sowers on roids? They should think about testing him.
Not surprised to see Glavine on the down list. Growing old is a bitch.
mlbnotebook - January 14, 2009
Sowers was throwing 88.5 in 2006, 85.4 in 2007, and 89.7 in 2008
He basically just regained what he lost, plus a little extra.
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
Bad batch of steroids in 2007.
Teej - January 14, 2009
*Bad batch of HGH
seattlebruin - January 14, 2009
Those are the same thing dumbass
Graham MacAree - January 14, 2009
Does this mean we can't talk about this?
marc w - January 14, 2009
Why do you, hate, me?
seattlebruin - January 14, 2009
There's no reason to suddenly suspect him of using steroids
there are lots of reasons a guys’ velocity will fluctuate from year to year including, but not limited to stupidly trying to pitch hurt one year and then being healthy and pitching as normal the next
seattlebruin - January 14, 2009
There is if you want to sell papers.
JI - January 14, 2009
exactally
sensationalism at its finest
mlbnotebook - January 14, 2009
So what does that make this comment?
laced with irony?
seattlebruin - January 14, 2009
could be
or maybe its a joke? Yeah, let’s go with that one.
mlbnotebook - January 14, 2009
Fascinating stuff, Jeff
Interesting to see K-Rod change his pitch mix so markedly as his FB declines. Likewise, Ervin Santana seemed to move more towards FB/Slider and away from the change and curve as his velocity increased. Both of those make perfect sense. The real head scratcher is, of course, Felix, who threw FBs much more often despite the slight drop in velo.
marc w - January 14, 2009
I wonder if the drop in velocity is -because- he used it so much.
Was there a decline in its speed as the year wore on? I can’t recall.
Teej - January 14, 2009
It's also possible that he was throwing more two-seamers and fewer four-seamers
but that’s all but impossible to check out.
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
The injury is also a possibility
if it was making it all difficult or uncomfortable to plant/land on (don’t remember which ankle it was), it might have caused him to back off just a bit to avoid re-spraining it the rest of the year.
seattlebruin - January 14, 2009
I really wonder how much of Rodriguez's fastball decline is deliberate
He and his agent claim that it is, and while I’m more than a little skeptical, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I imagine we’ll have our answer by May or June.
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
I'm excited for the LL's reaction the first time the Mets announce that JJ and K-Rod are switching roles
seattlebruin - January 14, 2009
It better happen soon because before too long all Mariner and Angel ties will disintegrate
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
I'd be fine if Felix threw his 4 seam fastball 1 mph slower
if that meant he could stop throwing it down the middle of the plate.
Edgar for Pres - January 14, 2009
Halladay throws harder now?
Is that even fair?
Llewdor - January 14, 2009
Nope
Not fair at all. He seems hell-bent on improving his K’s, and that is just sick to think about.
mlbnotebook - January 14, 2009
Right, because a 3.7 tRA over 240 IP just isn't good enough for him.
Llewdor - January 14, 2009
How much of a change in speed is significant?
I’m guessing many sources of error dwarf the 1% change we see in a lot of these guys.
Does a 1% change in your fastball velocity change how effective of a pitcher you are? Is a 92 mph FB much harder to hit than a 91 mph FB?
Edgar for Pres - January 14, 2009
My theory
I don’t think a pitcher who naturally throws 91 stands significantly more or less of a chance of succeeding than a pitcher who naturally throws 92, but I think it’s when a pitcher moves from 91 to 92 or from 92 to 91 that funny things start to happen. Pitchers seem to enjoy velocity gains and have difficulty adjusting to velocity drops.
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
Could it be the causes that result in velocity changes are more important than the actual changes
A pitcher is fatigued (or injured) so he sees his velocity decrease. He also loses control, stamina, and movement.
A pitcher has adjusted his mechanics to be more efficient. He also has better control and stamina.
It would be interesting to do a correlation between FB speed %change and BB %change. I’m not totally sure what would happen. If the above hypothesis is correct then a pitcher who sees lower FB speed should lose control. On the other hand pitchers could take a little bit off in order to improve their control by not going max-effort on every pitch.
Edgar for Pres - January 14, 2009
Yes, that's my thinking
Velocity changes are symptoms. Symptoms of good things if you velocity increases, and symptoms of bad things if it decreases. They’re just a useful, apparent indicator of something hidden.
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
Sorry to post here for this
But I can’t find any other place to answer the question (including FAQ).
If I wanted to cancel my SBNation account, how could I do that? I’m wanting to clean up the overwhelming numbers of internet communities of which I’m a part and would rather not have defunct memberships hanging in the wind. Any assistance would be appreciated; sorry to bother you with a non-baseball question.
Azimeir - January 14, 2009
SBN 4 LIFE!
I’m not sure, honestly. Just delete any information from your account and change the password to something you’ll never remember, so you won’t be tempted to come crawling back.
Teej - January 14, 2009
I could just ban you
Jeff Sullivan - January 14, 2009
Well, uh, thanks...
But I would like the option to return. : )
Azimeir - January 15, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.