Between 2007-2008, Raul Ibanez put up a .356 wOBA over 1343 plate appearances. The park-adjusted league average over the same span was about .325. This puts puts Raul as having been a +35.7 run bat.
According to UZR, for the same two seasons, Raul came in at -33.4 runs in the outfield. Let's keep things simple and just call his arm average.
Adjusting for position (LF and occasionally DH) and replacement level, you end up with a final value of +3.1 wins, or 1.55 wins per season.
In 2002, Jeff Cirillo put up a .281 wOBA over 547 plate appearances. The park-adjusted league average was about .316. This made Cirillo worth -16.4 runs at the plate.
According to UZR, Cirillo came in at +11.3 runs in the field. Although just a single season of data, this is in good agreement with his defense from 2003-2007. Jeff Cirillo has always drawn praise for his glovework, so I'm comfortable using this number.
Adjusting for position (3B and occasionally 1B) and replacement level, you end up with a final value of +1.4 wins.
In 2002, Jeff Cirillo was pretty much as valuable as Raul Ibanez in 2007-2008. And yet, while the entire city of Seattle fell in love with Raul, Cirillo was universally reviled and considered to be one of the worst acquisitions the team had ever made.
Defense. It means stuff.
Also note that, when Cirillo sucked his way to a .205/.284/.271 batting line in 2003, that performance was accompanied by a .228 BABIP and a 22.6% line drive rate. He wasn't as finished as people thought he was, and with that in mind, his .737 OPS from the day he was traded until the day he retired shouldn't come as much of a surprise. I never liked Jeff Cirillo as a Mariner, but I wish we hadn't driven him crazy, and if I could go back in time to that summer day in 2004 when he beat us with a home run, I'd laugh, and I'd laugh.
2 recs | 72 comments
I'm...not quite sure how to react to this.
BrianL - January 23, 2009
stop making our past selves feel really stupid :(
It’s unnerving. Damn you Cirillo, you can’t even suck properly.
marinerdan - January 23, 2009
At least Spiezio was truly really bad.
Matthew - January 23, 2009
Vidro... 2008 Kenji Johjima...
PositivePaul - January 23, 2009
bless them all.
marinerdan - January 23, 2009
Was 2008 Kenji really as bad as his line showed?
BrianL - January 23, 2009
No
Matthew - January 23, 2009
It doesn't seem so
.762 PrOPS vs. a .609 OPS. Some of that is park factor, but not all of it. LD% was actually the highest of his career, despite the abysmal .232 BABIP. A .762 OPS wouldn’t be crazy either, since it would essentially be right in line with his first two seasons.
The dip in HR/FB could stick around, though.
ubelmann - January 23, 2009
He was awesome in 2006.
JI - January 23, 2009
Yeah, that was the first thing I thought, too.
“Crap, does this mean Player A was OK, too?”
eponymous_coward - January 24, 2009
I must admit, I hated Jeff Cirillo.
r0ry - January 23, 2009
We all did
We didn’t know. We didn’t know.
Jeff Sullivan - January 23, 2009
I liked being ignorant. It felt good.
If hating Cirillo is wrong then then I don’t know if I want to be right.
Edgar for Pres - January 23, 2009
Think about it for a long second...
…and I’m sure you’ll know for sure that you absolutely don’t want to be right.
Sentinel - January 23, 2009
He was still pretty hateable.
Aaron Campeau - January 23, 2009
Because he was fucking wacky
Jeff Sullivan - January 23, 2009
Incorrect.
But its only taken a few years to say I told you so.
Slica - January 24, 2009
He was still below average
JI - January 23, 2009
Slightly Skeptical
Hey, long time reader first time poster.
So, I will happily admit that Raul was terrible at defense, but I just don’t trust UZR to assign meaningful +- run differentials to defense performance. I think there are too many defensive factors that can’t be accounted for or measured (yet), let alone quantified in a meaningful sense, particularly since defense doesn’t have nearly the discrete milestones that offense has.
I have no problem conceding that UZR does a great job measuring relative defensive abilities between players, but I just don’t believe that Raul’s defense was seriously so bad as to negate almost all of his offensive production.
Was there some definitive study I missed that showed UZR’s indisputable power? (That’s not sarcastic, I’m genuinely asking.)
Don’t get me wrong, Raul was a terrible defender, but I just don’t quite buy that he was THAT bad.
Andersean - January 23, 2009
?
Slurvey - January 23, 2009
Okay, ONE bad throw.
Oh wait, there’s more? Nevermind then.
Wilder. - January 23, 2009
So what evidence do you have to back up your claim?
Aaron Campeau - January 24, 2009
He never let a fly ball bounce off his head and over the wall.
So it could have been worse.
Vatinius - January 24, 2009
All defensive metrics agree on this point
Jeff Sullivan - January 24, 2009
Why not?
Graham MacAree - January 25, 2009
Ok, but
let’s say your right and there are reasons to be skeptical about the precision of UZR and other advanced defensive metrics. Every time I see this point raised to exculpate Ibanez or some other terrible defender, it’s always deployed in the service of the argument that it can’t be that bad. But why? If UZR and other advanced defensive metrics are unreliably imprecise, why wouldn’t it be just as likely they understate Ibanez’s defensive liabilities than overstate them?
djw - January 25, 2009
i like cirillo
Humongo - January 23, 2009
Quit trying to be hip by going against the grain.
Just admit that you have a deeply seeded hate for the man and move on. You’ll feel better about yourself.
Sentinel - January 23, 2009
Graham MacAree - January 24, 2009
IF ONLY WE HAD KNOWN
Aaron Campeau - January 24, 2009
Thats freaky. And they both have hands, too.
What are the odds?
Slica - January 24, 2009
This needs more recs
Double06 - January 24, 2009
I don't care.
Fuck Jeff Cirillo.
Goose - January 24, 2009
To clarify.
Ive always liked Cirillo and felt he was a little over-hated, but I never thought he was good for us.
Glad he gets his due as an average-to-below-average player.
Slica - January 24, 2009
I think we'll have similar feelings for Endy Chavez in the future...
Then again Endy isn’t going to be billed as a big offseason acquisition like Cirillo was at the time.
jb3 - January 25, 2009
Except we all know Endy Chavez can't hit
and defensive metrics are way more developed than they were in 2002
seattlebruin - January 25, 2009
Yeah, it's the clash between expectations and reality that does it
If you don’t expect Endy Chavez to hit, you won’t be disappointed when he doesn’t.
The Ancient Mariner - January 25, 2009
This
seattlebruin - January 26, 2009
Everytime I hear the pessimism v optimism thing, I think now
of this comic solely for the imagery of the pessimist’s binary outcome.
Matthew - January 26, 2009
Bahahaha
“today I was not raped by a bear!”
This needs to be used on LL more often
seattlebruin - January 27, 2009
Also the
“setting the bar that low means a different kind of horror when things are worse than I thought” is particularly relevant to LL.
Matthew - January 27, 2009
Like this?
seattlebruin - January 27, 2009
Just kidding, Corco
seattlebruin - January 27, 2009
This would have been so much better if they hadn't hidden the picture comment.
Faux - January 27, 2009
...
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/1/26/736536/le-ot-1-26-corco-s-gonna-s#11751780
Faux - January 27, 2009
All I knew about Cirillo's defense back in 2002 was something I heard on a radio interview.
“He’s a better overall defender than David Bell but he doesn’t charge the slow roller as well as Bell.”
Whatever the hell that means.
BrianL - January 25, 2009
It means David Bell was slow and not very good at defense but he made plays look really hard.
Aaron Campeau - January 25, 2009
I call this the "Jeter Effect"
Vatinius - January 25, 2009
Except for the part where he was good at defense.
Sec 108 - January 26, 2009
That's the part that makes me tear my hair out.
Plus he wasn’t as expensive. More of a well rounded player, I like those guys. I like those guys a lot.
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
I loved David bell. One of the most underrated Mariners this decade.
Sec 108 - January 26, 2009
Why is that? Is the effect of fantasy leagues?
I’m betting that ‘01 team wasn’t going to win you any pools, or whatever they are called (as a complete lineup). The pitching? But how much of that was solid defense? If a solid defense “makes” Silva/Washburn “look” better, then… aren’t you getting what you wanted from them? Egg and chicken argument, I don’t know.
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
Lou wanted a hitter and he felt Bell lacked power.
If there are two things I hated about Lou it was his lust for power hitters and his impatience with pitchers. Lou never hit more than 12 homers in a season in his career. He would have cut himself if he had the chance.
Sec 108 - January 26, 2009
Lou was born of the shattered confidence of rookies and shards of pitchers rotator cuffs.
You nailed it, the only thing I would add to your list is his insistence on a proven veteran, I’d swear the man hated rookies.
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
Bell had more power than Cirillo
JI - January 26, 2009
For whatever they actually were, I remember Cirillo being sold to the fans as a power upgrade.
There was a lot of talk of his .308 lifetime avg. (at the time, I’m flying on memory here), and Coors Field plus the Rockies messing with his swing had supposedly been responsible for his numbers trending down. Safeco and a new team were supposed to fix all that, and his defense was supposed to be a major upgrade. The whole thing pissed me off, how he was packaged to the fans, or the need to trade Bell. That move is my personal mark of the M’s downhill slide (that and Jeff Baldwin).
Cirillo may have been a somewhat better defender, maybe it was Bell’s little flip throw to first that swung opinion against his defense. Seems like an authoritative throw to first is the mark of a good defender, Bell had that little sidearm toss that looked more wrist than arm.
And I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just speaking of the rhetoric they pulled out of their asses when they made the move.
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
Jeff Cirillo's acquisition is why I am now forever skeptical of "gap power"
God damn we were fed that line so often.
Jeff Sullivan - January 26, 2009
Yuni has gap power...
Matthew - January 26, 2009
Hendu has real gap power
Jeff Sullivan - January 26, 2009
There's a man that could eat corn on the cob through picket fence
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
Bell hit more homers, it's not even close
I don’t remember being fed that line at all.
JI - January 26, 2009
Wasn't about homers, like Jeff said he was supposed to have gap power.
They wanted a crap ton of doubles. The first article has all the classic lines I remember from the deal, plus the tidbit that the M’s had considered going after Scott Rolen, thought you might like that. Really annoying, it felt like they were trying to sell me something I didn’t want. Zduriencik is laying things out so directly, the contrast really gets my attention. No sugar coating at all, other than the obligatory respectful remarks towards guys like Raul, and even those are spot on, in regards to Raul not fitting into the current situation and getting a good long term deal to start in LF.
also
- Larry Stone, Times.
They don’t mention power, just his avg and rbi’s and the line “upgrade at third”. SI
Hickey article, “M’s order hinges on Cirillo” calls him a line drive hitter, The way Lou’s quotes are framed in the article (and the title, real subtle), Cirillo’s bat was integral to the lineup.
- Holly Cain, Seattle PI article.
- Larry Stone in the Times. Article includes the classic quote of the rigorous off-season workout, including yoga, one of my favorites.
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
And there were a lot more quotes like that, they were every where.
Every article had this stuff, I figured that was plenty. “Traditional” baseball sayings have a lot of truth in them, if they are used correctly. When they get twisted up and misused it really frosts my ass. Probably similar to when metrics are used incorrectly in the sabre community.
Kermit. - January 26, 2009
I don't doubt that everyone though Cirillo was a better hitter/player
JI - January 28, 2009
Lou hated Cirillo even more. In fact I think Lou broke Cirillo.
Sec 108 - January 26, 2009
David Bell was a fantastic defender
JI - January 26, 2009
Really? I remember thinking he was bad.
I didn’t know shit about shit at the time so I’m willing to admit that I am totally wrong.
Aaron Campeau - January 26, 2009
His late career UZRs are ~+10
JI - January 26, 2009
He was almost as good as Boone at 2B and the 2nd best
Mariner I have ever seen play 3rd.
Sec 108 - January 26, 2009
In response
Okay, I should have clarified, and you’re right to put the burden of proof back on my end here, but the only point I wanted to make is that unless I am misunderstanding something about UZR (which is admittedly very possible) I don’t buy the accuracy of +- run ratings. With offensive metrics it makes sense to say that some event, on average, results in so many runs while some other event, on average, takes those runs away. However, I don’t see in UZR that kind of precision, largely because of the highly diminished discrete possible outcomes of a defensive event. On any plate appearance there’s usually ten-odd outcomes for the batter that can occur depending on the situation. It is possible to assign average run values to each event in each situation, etc. etc. On defense, there’s so many possible outcomes that assigning run values seems suspect. How many runs worse is taking a twelve step route to a ball than a ten? What about two ten step runs with slightly different angles of approach? What is the run value of the time difference between contact and the defender’s first step?
I am not disputing UZR’s ability to tell you whether or not someone sucks at defense, and I am not saying that Raul was a good defender, or that Cirillo sucked with the glove, my issue is only with taking UZR run ratings as precise values. In that sense, perhaps I posted in the wrong thread.
Also, @ DJW, that’s an excellent point. In response I would say that many rating systems tend to conflate along the trend. Take stock equity “buy” or “sell” recommendations, for example. By their very nature they a make a good stock look great and a bad-ish stock look terrible.
Andersean - January 25, 2009
Typically speaking
people will represent fielding value as a ten-run range — say, Franklin Gutierrez is a +5 < x
< +15 fielder in CF — to address precisely that concern; win values will thus often be represented as a range to account for that. In this case, as noted in the post, Jeff was just trying to keep things simple, so he didn’t do that.
The Ancient Mariner - January 26, 2009
Thanks Jeff.
I was a fan of Cirillo. I never realized Cirillo was so hated until I started reading the blogs. Honestly, though, I have started to REALLY hate Raul over the last year.
Whatever, I’m more interested in the future of this team than the past.
mark sobba - January 26, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.