Looking at the two guys for whom we have good sample sizes. For Washburn, only Mariner stats included. Obviously.
| Pitcher | Catcher | PA | HR% | uBB% | K% | BABIP |
| Felix | Johjima | 1958 | 2.7% | 7.4% | 20.8% | 0.327 |
| Others | 1828 | 1.5% | 7.1% | 22.1% | 0.282 | |
| Washburn | Johjima | 1862 | 3.0% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 0.292 |
| Others | 992 | 2.2% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 0.265 |
If you're wondering, no, I'm not trying to make a point, because I don't know what point I should make.
0 recs | 39 comments
Yikes.
abender20 - October 15, 2009
The BABIP difference is interesting to see in there because
I can possibly see a catcher affecting the other categories but I’m not sure why that variance is happening in BABIP also.
Sec 108 - October 15, 2009
Preference for calling different pitches?
Higher BABIP on ground balls than fly balls, so a catcher who calls more high fastballs might have a lower BABIP. There will be a different average BABIP for different types of pitches.
Right?
Eyebrows - October 15, 2009 via mobile
Also, Joh caught Wash and Felix more often in 08 and earlier
There’s a definite difference in the defense.
Eyebrows - October 15, 2009 via mobile
This makes sense to me here. Good call.
Sec 108 - October 15, 2009
Yeah, this is why I don't think that much of the BABIP column
Jeff Sullivan - October 15, 2009
Both Felix and Washburn exhibited drops in their HR rate too.
One could attribute it to different catchers, or not. I can see why having an opinion on this is difficult.
CapSea - October 15, 2009
More on catching. More on. Mor-on... now we're getting somewhere!
The Typical Idiot Fan - October 15, 2009
These sets of numbers seem identical to me
The difference in HR% is there, but you’re also talking about a handful of events over hundreds of plate appearances so I wouldn’t fret over 1%. A few starts in Texas and Chicago could account for that, basically. The differences in K/BB rates for Washburn I believe should be more to do with his numbers this year compared to previous seasons, and I suspect this may be partially true for Felix as well, as Eyebrows pointed out.
.
The BABIP stuff is… what is that? Last year’s defense compared to this year’s defense? Strange
Bearskin Rugburn - October 15, 2009
The HR rate isn't a handful of events - one is ~ double the other. 53hrs v. 27hrs.
It’s weird, and it would probably even out over time, but it really sticks out. It’s odd.
marc w - October 15, 2009
Felix's HR%'s are more then 3 SD's away from each other
Jeff Sullivan - October 15, 2009
Yeah. That's what jumped out at me when I looked at this
earlier in the year. I just don’t get it.
Crappy proto-theory: For whatever reason, Johjima doesn’t get as many strikes called as he should (see that Dan Turkenkopf study on framing). More ‘bad’ counts leads to more FBs over the plate?
It’d be interesting to look at HRs by count for Felix, but that’d take a lot of work.
marc w - October 15, 2009
Does pitch mix differ?
Maybe someone’s already looked at this, but it would be interesting to see if Joh’s calling for a different mix of pitches than other catchers. Could break this down by count, also.
cyberwulf - October 15, 2009
That's a decent theory, but pitchers influence pitch mix too.
Tough to isolate a catcher’s role in that.
marc w - October 15, 2009
I'm talking about comparing (say) Felix's pitch mix w/ Joh to his w/ other catchers
cyberwulf - October 15, 2009
I know, but it's still tough
Think of the Angels game where Felix shook Joh off all the time. Is a deviation from some average/standard mix something Felix did, or something Joh did?
marc w - October 15, 2009
This assumes that at-bats are independent
1958 PAs doesn’t give the same amount information as 1958 coin flips. Dependence between at-bats will make these differences look less statistically significant. Also, in a table like the one given above, you’d probably expect at least one or two comparisons to yield a significant result just by chance.
cyberwulf - October 15, 2009
What is your basis of assuming dependence between PAs?
Matthew - October 15, 2009
Off the top of my head:
1) Same batters every time through lineup/over the course of a series
2) Pitcher fatigue over the course of a game
3) Situational issues (pitching style will often differ when bases loaded/no outs vs. bases empty/two outs)
I’m not saying I know how big these effects are, but I don’t think they can be dismissed out of hand.
cyberwulf - October 15, 2009
This makes me curious about the overall BABIP this year versus last year
Smegmalicious - October 15, 2009 via mobile
Ok....
You can get team DER here; DER=1-BABIP, so it’s essentially the same.
2009: .712
2008: .682
Big, big, big change
marc w - October 15, 2009
An amazingly joyous change.
Sec 108 - October 15, 2009
Joh is .113 R/G better at "Catching"*
Johjima’s WP+PB / Game = .356
Johjima’s SB/G = .646
Johjima’s CS/G = .353
Johnson’s WP+PB / Game = ..549
Johnson’s SB/G = .821
Johnson’s CS/G = ..299
ExRuns of WP or BP = -.285
ExRuns of SB = .-195
ExRuns of CS = +.456
Johjima’s “Catching” runs allowed per game (raw, not scaled to average) = -.067
Johnson’s “Catching” runs allowed per game (raw, not scaled to average) = -.170
This of course doesn’t control for pitchers, opponents, etc.
But when looking at the difference in game calling that seems to favor Johnson to some degree, it’s interesting to try to measure their defensive contributions. I think if we could add this, a value for the game calling (using a With Or Without You method), fielding, and projected wRAA, we might get close to a true catcher value.
CMC_Stags - October 15, 2009
Could anything be made of LD%-against?
qrsouther - October 15, 2009
Feel free to tell me if this is a stupid question.
qrsouther - October 15, 2009
Doubt it and I don't have that data
Jeff Sullivan - October 15, 2009
Is LD%-against tracked anyway?
qrsouther - October 15, 2009
Nowhere I know of
Jeff Sullivan - October 15, 2009
CATCHER ERA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!1~
But seriously, do we really have any good evidence that different catchers have any control over things like BABIP, K%, or HR%?
ARock - October 15, 2009
I don't know
Does this count as good evidence?
I’m not leaning either way. I’m just providing data.
Jeff Sullivan - October 15, 2009
What this says to me
… is that Washburn and Felix happened to be worse with Johjima behind the plate, not just unlucky. But there’s no reason to believe that they were worse because of Johjima.
Not sure that it justifies Washburn throwing Joh under the bus but we can see what it is he’s blaming Joh for. Doesn’t make him any less of a dick though.
jose luis - October 15, 2009
Another column: the catcher's salaries
Johjima: 7.6 million
“Others:” 1.2 million
(assuming Rob Johnson, 400k; Jamie Burke, 400k; Adam Moore, 400k)
Spoomeister - October 15, 2009
Another column: race
Johjima: Asian
“Others”: Superior caucasian.
Really, salary has no relevance here.
Matthew - October 15, 2009
Just seems that the stats Jeff found drives the point home that you can get equivalent catching skill for cheaper
Spoomeister - October 15, 2009
Well we can't do a lot about Bavasi's mistake now, that money's on the books no matter what so what they're getting paid doesn't really matter
OlSalty - October 15, 2009
That would be one interpretation if one was an extremely bad analyst
Graham MacAree - October 15, 2009
Except:
And you’re ignoring things like controlling the running game, preventing passed balls/wild pitches, errors.
Oh, and hitting.
If you’re going to bring salary into this, that is making a value comparison. And if you are going to do that without bringing up those stats that actually help paint a picture of value then, well… what the hell are you doing?
Matthew - October 15, 2009
Actually, Rob Johnson's grandmother was black
Bearskin Rugburn - October 15, 2009
Actually, Rob Johnson's dick is black
seattlebruin - October 16, 2009
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