SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Lookout Landing

Fun With Numbers

The six relievers who got the most playing time for the Mariners this year were David Aardsma, Sean White, Shawn Kelley, Miguel Batista, Chris Jakubauskas, and Mark Lowe. Here's how they did pitching to Rob Johnson and Kenji Johjima (Jak's starter stats are included because I didn't feel like separating them, but he conveniently threw to each catcher about equally often as a starter).

Johnson Johjima
uBB K HR PA uBB K HR PA
Aardsma 16 48 2 151 11 21 1 104
White 6 8 1 125 11 14 2 100
Lowe 9 32 3 153 12 26 3 130
Batista 15 17 1 106 21 30 6 175
Kelley 1 9 3 61 6 26 5 110
Jak 11 20 9 177 12 19 5 180
TOTAL 58 134 19 773 73 136 22 799
RATE 7.5% 17.3% 2.5% 9.1% 17.0% 2.8%

You'll see that, over remarkably similar sample sizes, the relievers walked fewer batters when throwing to Johnson than when throwing to Johjima. The other two stats aren't meaningfully different.

But wait! That's not a fair comparison, because the playing time distributions aren't the same for each catcher. For example, Johnson got to catch 50% more Aardsma, while Johjima had to catch 60% more Batista. What happens when you weight Johjima's numbers to equal Johnson's PT distribution?

Johnson: 7.5%, 17.3%, 2.5%
Johjima: 9.3%, 16.8%, 2.4%

There you go. Neither the strikeout nor home run rates are meaningfully different, and the walk rates are within two standard deviations of each other, but something to think about.

0 recs  |  21 comments

Comments

Are the numbers for each individual relief pitcher from too small of sample sizes to mean anything significant?
Probably

Let’s take the biggest sample in there – Joh catching Batista. You’ve got a 17.1% strikeout rate with a standard deviation of +/- 2.8%, or 5 strikeouts.

Doesn't factor in bad umpiring, pitcher's ability to hold runners on, catcher's ability to throw guys out

Umpiring: What if one of them just happened to be in games with a home plate umpire that called low strikes / outside corners correctly? What if one of them was in games with CB Bucknor more often than the other? That might be masking one catcher’s deficiencies.

Holding guys on / throwing them out: Some of those pitchers were pitching more often with baserunners they’re responsible for, or did better in situations with inherited baserunners. Wouldn’t that have a ripple effect on pitch selection, and thus walk or strikeout rate?

In conclusion this table doesn't cure cancer
Do you put together tables like this, looking at parts of the team that you don't publish?

I want to say doodling around to satisfy curiosity, but that phrase sounds really trite and while it’s an apt description for the image in my head this is a serious question. Not important, but perhaps you could indulge my curiosity.

Probably half of the things I spend at least half an hour on with Excel don't get published anywhere

Mainly just indulging my curiosity.

Perhaps I should've used a different expression
After three re-writes I gave up on my comment. I hated it but every other version sounded like a demanding little shit.

I’ve wanted to ask that question quite a few times, thanks for the answer.

Even right now I'm playing around with something that isn't going anywhere!
so many jokes, so little desire to be permabanned
I want a chart that illustrates that Nolan Ryan's supposed "no pitch count" edict had nothing to do with Texas' success this year.
And you want us to take it seriously?
Blah, no slight intended - just the first things I wondered about

Especially umpiring. I’d love to see some standardized stats that let you figure out UIP (umpire independent pitching).

Ideally those things would average out but over sample sizes this small they probably don't

That’s why I caution that, while this is interesting, it’s not nearly conclusive.

Can you post one with WP and PB for Johjima and Johnson by pitcher?

I can’t find a decent source for that kind of data. I’m curious of Johnson’s “catching” is as bad as we all think it is.

From B-R.com (Wild pitches for 2009 aren’t listed yet.):

Johjima: 26 past balls in 3692.2 innings (2006-2009). That’s 142 innings per past ball. Johjima: 102 WP in 3112.2 innings(2006-2008). That’s a WP every 30.5 innings.

Johnson: 9 PB in 754.1 innings (2007-2009). That’s one every 84 innings caught. 4 PB in 68 innings. That’s one every 17 innings with a hugely limited sample size.

Unfortunately I don't have that info

Limited by what B-R has in the splits.

And no one wants to have to delve through each box score

I can go through each game’s box score and try to find it, but don’t have the time. I was just hoping you had a DB you could query against to find it.

I’ve got to think that the path to measuring both catcher defense and game calling will come back to that level of data through Tango’s WOWY process.

The walk rates you posted are a great start for the game calling portion. But without being able to have a good source for throwing, catching, and defensive splits, doing the defensive portion would be difficult to impossible. This is probably why people much better at this than me haven’t figured out a good way to measure it yet.

No DB

I’m computer illiterate!

THT lists WP+PB rates for catchers.

Which is the only place I know to list WP from the catcher side.

Baseball Reference seems to have it too

But only for past seasons right now. And with no splits that I can find.

I want splits to control for RA last year.

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.