Lookout Landing

And that it's a two-year deal.

That kind of sucks. Seems like about the right value for projected production, but mostly only downside.

Oh well, I guess there weren’t a ton of better options. I was just hoping our FA money would be spent on a bat… Maybe it still can be, but this sort of rules out getting a Harden/Johnson combo doesn’t it?

Why would it?

Too expensive? I'm not sure what the FO's budget will be this year...

but it seems like a lot of teams are looking to reduce payroll, it’s not unlikely the Mariners will join them.

Bedard, Washburn, Johjima, Beltre, and Batista came off the books this year.

They have some money.

I guess I'm just not a huge fan of Wilson.

And I think patient teams will get better deals again this season.
Does anyone know what the average $/win was for free agents in 2009?

Wilson is approx. a 4 win upgrade over 162 games from Yuni. You should be happy to have him on board.

Comparing him to a below-replacement level player isn't exactly a compelling reason.

It's not like the market is flooded with better options.

Who else were we going to have? Josh Wilson? League average SS don't grow on trees and certainly aren't available internally.

If league-average shortstops don't grow on trees...

Where did Everth Cabrera come from?

What?

Kirk - November 13, 2009 via mobile reply

Everth Cabrera is a league-average shortstop?

Almost... UZR is almost certainly mis-grading him.

And he came as close to “growing on a tree” as the analogy points to.

One example doesn't prove anything

Yeah I was just making a joke, since one practically did fall from the sky for the Padres last season.

That's just it, we don't really know what the budget is, so it's foolish to assume that this move will hamper the ability to make other moves.

I know this has been discussed ad nausem but there's not reason to believe that this is a bad deal or that we're getting Wilson's downside

It’s a pretty solid deal: 4-5 wins for $11-12 m

I'm not saying he IS downside, just that he's more likely to post 2 wins over that timeframe than 6.

He's pretty much a two win a year player though.

I don’t see how you expect him to be worth one a piece the next two years.

I don't, he's probably +10 with the glove, -10 with the stick...

Maybe a 1.75 win player. His bat doesn’t have the potential to bust out but he could lose a step or become even worse with the bat, rendering him 1-win-ish. There’s also decent injury potential.
Let me put it another way, if he posts 5-6 wins over the next 2 years, I will be quite surprised because it’s hard to see where those wins would come from. If he posts 2 wins, not so surprising, many things could go wrong.

He could lose a step, on the other hand he is fresh off his two best defensive seasons

Right, the most likely thing is he's a 1.75 win player or so.

But it’s more likely for something to go the wrong way than the right way with Jack.

But not with Scutaro?

I'd say with Scutaro it's about even risk.

Scutaro could replicate last year, that’s unlikely but not out of the question. He could easily be a 3-4 win player over the next two seasons.
Wilson, on the other hand, hasn’t shown the ability to hit well enough to do that in his recent history.

I’m not saying it’s a bad deal, just there’s not much upside. I’m decently happy with it for $10 million.

But Scutaro is a Type A

That means you have to wait to see if he’s offered arbitration. And if he is, you don’t want to lose your pick. Plus, he could command more money. And if either of those two things happen, Jack Wilson might not be there to fall back on.

He's Type A, which will lower his cost.

It also will make it hurt less to sign other Type A’s like O-Hud.

If he does get offered arbitration, the price you pay is no longer just in $$.

The cost would include the lost draft pick.

Saying giving up a first so you can sign other type A’s and only give up a second isn’t a good argument for your case.

edddgar - November 13, 2009 reply

Yeah, ok, but it costs a draft pick for every team.

And thus lowers the value of the player to every team meaning the contract will be favorable on the financial end.

It doesn't cost every team the same draft pick.

So Marco Scutaro > Wilson + 1st round draft pick?

My point was, your including your first round pick with the cost to sign Scutaro. The Mariners just missed their pick being protected, their pick is far more valuable than that of, say, the Yankees.

edddgar - November 13, 2009 reply

That's ludicrous to think that Scutaro's risk is even.

He’s a 34-year-old SS coming off his best season by far which was fueled almost entirely by him swinging a ton less and likely by a bit of BABIP inflation.

I meant his risk of being above or below average, not repeating last year.

I'm beginning to think you're a crazy person.

Kirk - November 13, 2009 via mobile reply

You've yet to actually state who we should have gotten instead of Wilson

njd.aitken - November 13, 2009 reply

Or how available they are, or how much their respective GM's want for them.

He'd have to miss about 200 games but ok

Probably more like 3-3.5 wins

but hey, $10M!

I figure 2 wins for about 125 starts, more if he's healthy/has a year where he hits!

This is cool:

Seattle Mariners Executive Vice President & General Manager of Baseball Operations Jack Zduriencik today announced that the club has signed shortstop Jack Wilson to a two-year contract.

Wilson earned the Fielding Bible Award as the best fielding shortstop in the Majors in 2009 and ranked 3rd in the Majors for most “Web Gem” points on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight. He led all ML shortstops with 27 runs saved (The Fielding Bible statistic) in 2009 and leads his position with 51 runs saved over the last three seasons. FULL STORY "

The Mariners have just emailed this to all of their subscribers through mlb.com. Great to see some love for FB and also justifying that with the runs saved statistic.

Just about to post the same thing...

It makes me happy to see the new regime using things like ‘runs saved’ in an official email.

clb - November 13, 2009 reply

Why am I not surprised they keep track of Web Gems.

They did it all season long on BBTN as a web-gem standings thing.

I like how they include something for us and something for the commoners in the same sentence

It's like a double dip of awesome.

I also heard that Jack Wilson was Carl's

Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week

Eyebrows - November 13, 2009 via mobile reply

I can't wait for Jim Street to get smart in order to pimp the company line

Jim Street recently pleaded for Jason Bay via his mailbag

I facepalmed myself, partially because it’s not at all a move worth making, and partially because I had to exercise some form of physical punishment on myself for reading a Jim Street mailbag and not expecting a dosage of stupid.

That is awesome.

Good job mariners for pointing out an advanced defensive statistic to people.

I also love it when I hear the mariners broadcasters mention UZR (usually in the context of someone like Gutierrez having an awesome UZR).

The Typical Idiot Fan - November 13, 2009 reply

Did they?

I remember them mentioning RZR, but not UZR.

As I recall, Blengino mentioned RZR, but the guys in the booth mentioned UZR.

The Typical Idiot Fan - November 13, 2009 reply

That's awesome.

These guys really know how to run a modern baseball franchise. They can guide their fans along into the new world with them and explain how they’re doing awesome stuff.

Per Dejan Kovacevic out of Pittsburgh

Wilson’s deal believed to have total worth of $10 million.

ManifestDestiny - November 13, 2009 reply

That would be pretty fantastic.

Maybe I'm being nitpicky, but I think $10 million is a pretty good deal whereas $12 would be pretty =(

ManifestDestiny - November 13, 2009 reply

That's not nitpicky

Every $mil/year we save is another $mil/year we can throw at Felix

If this is true awesome.

BrianL - November 13, 2009 reply

Sounds wonderful

stupidquestions - November 13, 2009 reply

If it's for $10M then hell yes

Again from Kovacevic

Confirmed: Wilson’s deal with Seattle worth $10 million.

ManifestDestiny - November 13, 2009 reply

I think this just got upgraded to good news

Nick S - November 13, 2009 reply

Nice!

marc w - November 13, 2009 reply

That makes this a pretty awesome deal

Awesome

I’d have been pretty happy with $12mil but 10 is fantastic.

Eyeball Kid - November 13, 2009 reply

Wow

Woo-hoo’

I can’t believe he accepted that. Maybe its the base salary?

Down market? Defense still underrated?

I don’t know; I’m inclined to think it’s Griffdawg.

He had an 8m option this year, correct?

Couldn’t he have gotten better than $1/2 in 2011?

It was a club option.

The "Not Pittsburgh" discount.

BrianL - November 13, 2009 reply

I'm looking forward to Jack answering his critics over the next two years. I am delighted we have a steady, league average SS. Not every deal has to be a bargain - I am happy we have a 4 win upgrade over our previous "SS" for $5 million/year more.

Considering the overall shortstop scarcity in MLB

$5 million for a player as consistently valuable as Wilson is someone I’ll take as a two-year stopgap every single time.

Ok, my main beef with Wilson is this:

As a team that is kind-of-but-not-really a playoff contender in 2010, deals with risk and upside have more value to us than deals that are steady and more predictable.
If we are projected to be a 91 win team without Wilson, then it makes perfect sense to shore up the roster with some really predictable talent.
But since we’re somewhere like an 85 win team or so if we get all of our wins from free agency at $4 mil value, then it makes more sense to go with someone like Scutaro who just posted a ridiculous season and is more likely to give you the kind of breakout performance that will put us at 90 wins or something that is really good for a playoff run.

If it’s for $10 million and 2 years, though, then I won’t complain. There’s some real value in that deal and as long as we get some higher risk players then we may be able to fill out our roster in a way that makes us playoff contenders if things break right anyway.

It'll be interesting to see what Scutaro gets...

…and if he’s offered arbitration. There are other places to upgrade on the roster and a $5 million league average SS isn’t a bad thing. What if Scutaro gets the same deal as Chone Figgins? Would you rather have Tui and Scutaro or Figgins and Wilson?

coreyjro - November 13, 2009 reply

I think I'd rather have Scutaro and the cheapest of Johnson/Delgado/Matsui than Wilson and the most expensive of them.

Apparently Dave beat me to saying this by quite a few words and 4 minutes.

It’s not a move with much upside, so the M’s will have to compensate by taking some risks at other positions, but it’s a decent stop-loss move.

But that's really the point

We weren’t going to get much upside out of the shortstop position this winter anyway, so it feels like the best ‘win now and keep the position warm’ move for two years.

There were a couple places to look for it, but yeah I guess the options are pretty limited...

Scutaro and Bartlett were decent options for upside guys. And I kind of like the “maybe he’ll repeat a freakout year again” upside over “maybe his body wont break down” upside.

Scutaro is older and his performance screams fluke

Which is why he won't cost a ton more than $10 million for 2 years.

But he hit last year and hitting is value highly

Plus Wilson is probably likely to be better anyway

Want to have like a $5 bet at who will post a better WAR in 2010?

Anyway, I like the risk/upside of Scutaro for a middling-maybe-playoffs team like the Mariners.

No because you won't pay up

Why not?

A five dollar bet made with a stranger over the internet payable by 2011

lets see here

We can have someone from LL escrow.

I'll save it for you.

Both of you give me 5 bucks ~~bitches~~ guys and then I’ll totally give it to you later..

CapSea - November 13, 2009 reply

You're supposed to say because he doesn't spend money on anything.

Mariner John - November 13, 2009 reply

He's not a jew

In order to win, you must take some risks

But don’t make unnecessary, insane risks.

Is Marco Scutaro an insane risk?

Mark Prior is an insane risk, Dick Harden is an insane risk… Scutaro is just unlikely to repeat last year.

Rich Harden is not an insane risk

How is Rich Harden an insane risk?

For us, in our situation

We are staring a perennial 2-win player in the face for $5 million per – and to wait until free agency to go after a player whose BABIP is severely inflated and might cost us a first-round pick isn’t an insane risk?

Perspective.

Harden and Prior aren't insane risks

Unless you are counting on them to throw 150+ innings or throwing high dollar multi year deals at them. But taking a flier on one of them for reasonable money isn’t a risk at all.

And, frankly, in our situation

A Rich Harden/Bedard/Sheets type is the kind of risk we need to make in order to compete, not this shortstop shuffleboard nonsense.

How much do you think Scutaro is going to get?

$17/3

To what team?

Hard to guess.

I ask because that contract is completely insane

You guess, then.

My guess is that he gets nothing approaching that because he's not really that good and he's a type A

Hudson had to hold out for a very long time and he had a bat and a good rep… Marco Scutaro is Marco Scutaro he has none of those things going for him. I bet he wait a very long time to sign

I bet he has more grit

Are you saying everyone hated Hudson because he was black

His name is O-Dawg, what do you think

He is quite menacing.

ESPN looooooooooooooves him.

They want to marry him.

ESPN and O-Dawg sitting in a tree.

Jed MC - November 13, 2009 reply

If you're a proponent of going after him for that kind of money

How much do you think we have in available financial resources this offseason?

And you'd rather do that + lose 1st round pick

than sign Wilson for 2/10 ?

And you think it's a sizable difference in value in Scutaro's favor there?

Yeah.

Why?

I would rather trade for Placido Polanco and put him at SS

or trade for Edgar Renteria etc

Yeah, and sign Orlando Hudson and lose our 2nd round pick, too!

I'd rather use the resources to attain players like that (e.g. Lopez) and get better talent and just throw greenbacks at SS since it won't change that much

And because $5 million is actually a solidly good deal for the M's in regards to getting a player like Jack

I'm not Z, but

I bet the main reasoning behind the decision was purely defense. And Wilson is far better than Scutaro. I like it. And really at the end of the day is the minimal offensive upgrade worth the risk? There are better positions to upgrade our offense.

InSpokane - November 13, 2009 reply

I will never understand what possesses you to think Scutaro has breakout potential.

Aaron Campeau - November 13, 2009 via mobile reply

Just he has an ability to repeat a 4-ish win season.

It’s not likely, but there’s decent potential. He could become 5 with the glove again and still be a 4 win player if his BABIP goes back to normal levels.

Phil Hatzenbuehler - November 13, 2009 reply

Shouldn't this be part of the "Faces" series?

“Suprise Face man looks like he just found out that his girlfriend has room for two cucumbers.”

Good. I will love you for two more years, Jack Wilson.

royalcurve - November 13, 2009 reply

Finally someone with rational commentary.

I can get on board with this.

I don't forget men who fetch me Erik Bedard.

Nothing else matters.

royalcurve - November 13, 2009 reply

Oh right on! I had completely forgotten that happened.

What a fantastic experience. The M’s injury updates list Bedard as coming out a sling soon, I’m not sure how often they update that. The last dated injury report on any player was the middle of Oct.

The team needed more ugly.

Therefore I approve this move

Bring on Lackey!

I hear Harang's on the trading block!

Let's not go crazy with the ugly

He looks like a fat Dave Grohl

I think the ugly quotient has been fullfilled

If we sign John Lackey then Mike Carp has got to go

I'd rather have a Lackey baby than a Carp baby

What does Lackey have to do with Mike Carp?

This team can only be so ugly

If Gutierrez were to go away

How many ugly players would we have to get rid of to regain balance?

We don't have enough

Gutierrez by himself cancels out any number of ugly players.

It's Magical!

It's like a see-saw, needs some balance.

He's not ugly he's just different

Dewey N - November 13, 2009 reply

I can't believe the best fielding shortstop in the majors in white

Like John McDonald and Adam Everett?

I know!

It’s befuddling

$10 million for 2 years of Wilson is great.

He is about 2 WAR, and if his wOBA improves slightly to around .300, which is pretty reasonable imo (given Dave Cameron’s post about his offense on USSMariner), then he might even be 2.5 WAR.

2 WAR on the free agent market is like 8-9 million, so we are getting a good deal.

If he manages to be worth more than 2 WAR, then thats even better.

Oops, that post was on LL, not USSMariner, and it was by Jeff.

I got mixed up.

So Wilson is probably 1.5-2 WAR, we are getting him at a bit below market rates.

And here I thought Dave was stealing my thoughts again

Neat

Yay

Get to use this for 2 more years

Scruffy Lefty - November 13, 2009 reply

This brings a smile to my face every time.

Wilder. - November 13, 2009 reply

Sweet jesus you have skills

BRKLN M'S - November 13, 2009 reply

Which one is Jack Wilson?

abender20 - November 13, 2009 reply

By my count there are three choices, so I'm interested in the answer as well.

I think he's the ugliest one.

Lanky - November 13, 2009 reply

Quick math projections

Wilson: ~.295 – .300 park-neutral wOBA, +10 defense
Scutaro: ~.330 park-neutral wOBA, 0 defense

Congratulations, you have yourself a difference of about five runs.

That's what I was tring to say earlier, but not as well.

InSpokane - November 13, 2009 reply

Interesting

Calabro brings up the moving from leagues to face a new set of pitchers, and Wilson’s first thought is how lost he felt not knowing how to defense a new set of batters ….

oh, and

Josh Wilson is leading Langerhans in the FF League.