For those of you who are (justifiably) distrustful of the Bill James projections but still want to look at some numbers, the 2010 CHONE projections are live. For hitters, anyway. Here are the Mariners, here are the free agents, and here are the Yankees, in case looking at the Mariners didn't make you sad enough.
The first thing you should do here - as one should do with pretty much any forecasting system - is ignore the Ichiro projection. It's a well-known fact that forecasting systems hate Ichiro, and I mean literally hate him, in that they have a built-in hate factor that program creators activate for Ichiro because they feel threatened by his improbability. It's my understanding that CHONE took all the hits it stole from Ichiro and gave them to Prentice Redman.
Eventually Ichiro will decline and a few forecasters will give each other high-fives for nailing it, but it doesn't count when you project decline every year. It's like the computer version of me and Raul Ibanez. .305/.338/.400 isn't unreasonable - Ichiro did hit .310/.361/.386 as recently as 2008 - but just because it's possible doesn't make it a good projection, because projections are supposed to fall in the middle of the next year's probability distribution, and a .738 OPS is towards the bottom of Ichiro's. Feel free to bump that up a fair bit in your head. It'll help paint a slightly better picture of our currently miserable offense.
Among Mariners currently in-house, you'll notice that Jose Lopez forecasts well, while Franklin Gutierrez comes out looking a little worse. The former strikes me as optimistic, given the things I've talked about before with regard to Lopez's power, but the latter seems fair, given that Guti probably overachieved a little bit in 2009. But hey, he's young, so who knows? Not a lot of love in there for Michael Saunders or Matt Tuiasosopo, which you can believe in, or not believe in. Overall, man, do we need help. The Russell Branyan line looks good, but that won't be enough on its own.
Most optimistic projection of the bunch? Greg Halman's .193/.242/.334 with 17 walks and 147 strikeouts. Halman just ran a 29/183 ratio in AA. Methinks the decimal in "17" was put in the wrong place.
0 recs | 93 comments
You know, I thought the Giants' CHONES looked bad...
But you guys are like “whoa”
baetown415 - November 15, 2009
Go Mariners!
After a brief review I believe we have the worst projections in baseball, and by a fairly good margin.
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
This is why I was not optimistic about our roster in the other thread
We all love defense around here and really have learned to appreciate it but it would be really nice to have a little offense.
Edgar for Pres - November 15, 2009
It'll come
Those projections don’t include Branyan or our regular 1B/DH. Those two players won’t take us over the top, of course, but they’ll help a lot, and they’ll also leave room to improve either at the plate or on the mound.
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
Ouch.
gregrabble - November 15, 2009
We need some defence projections to cheer us up a bit.
EnglishMariner - November 15, 2009 via mobile
Wahlah
And BAM
baetown415 - November 15, 2009
Is that arabic for vois-la?
Bearskin Rugburn - November 15, 2009
Huh?
baetown415 - November 15, 2009
He's joking about your spelling.
It’s spelled “Voila,” not “Wahlah.” – it’s French.
CapSea - November 15, 2009
Oh.. I wasn't trying to spell "Voila" though
I’m not sure what I was trying to say… maybe that one thing that magicians do before they pull the rabbit out of the hat?
baetown415 - November 15, 2009
That would be voilà
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009
Ok
That’s what I get for visiting LL between sections of my paper.
baetown415 - November 15, 2009
Your spelling is very common on the internet
and grossly, grossly wrong.
Llewdor - November 16, 2009
Do you abbreviate Lookout Landing "Ell Ell" or something?
seattlebruin - November 16, 2009
For the record, I thought it was really funny, and not in a mocking way.
Also, there is a word in Arabic that is a lot like Wahlah (not sure how its spelled, only how its said) which means ‘come on’ in a sort of petulant, impatient sense.
Bearskin Rugburn - November 16, 2009
Of course I go and fuck it up too
can’t believe I forgot its been portmonteau’d.
Bearskin Rugburn - November 16, 2009
Prentice Redman probably could of been a decent 4th outfielder last year
Too bad for him really, I wonder why Zduriencik did not give him a go before Langerhans.
tdot mariner fan - November 15, 2009
Because Langerhans cost $0 and is almost certainly the better player
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
Yeah, I am not really complaining
I am just intrigued by the thought of what he could have done. Career MILB players suprise every once in a while and it would have been nice(for him) if he got a chance to play.
tdot mariner fan - November 16, 2009
Langerhans is a waaaaaaay better player than Prentice Redman
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009
Getting Langerhans was an excuse to dump Michael Morse and shut up about 5000 stupid people for a while.
I Lick Squirrels - November 15, 2009
I know you didn't write it but my brain just instantly added in "white" between "stupid people"
OlSalty - November 15, 2009
That's weird. Mine did too.
royalcurve - November 16, 2009
Could HAVE...
That’s another pet peeve of mine, right up there with the incorrect usages of either/or and neither/nor. “Could of” doesn’t make sense on any level. Could have… could HAVE…
Ike Clanton - November 16, 2009
I actually appreciate that being put out there(no sarcasm)
Grammar in any language has never been my forte and I hate making mistakes like that.
tdot mariner fan - November 16, 2009
Where's the wOBA?
lailaihei - November 15, 2009
...not listed?
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
However the R150 column is based on linear weights so that'll serve your purpose
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
wOBA is such a good stat, though, I don't know why any statistical analysis would not include it.
The quick way to make wOBA would be ((R150)*2)+leagueaverageOBP right?
lailaihei - November 15, 2009
Yeah, I get annoyed whenever something doesnt list wOBA.
Thats the only offensive stat I really care about.
ARock - November 15, 2009
As long as you either download or save your own copy:
Go nuts.
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009
Why would you like wOBA over R150
just curious
Edgar for Pres - November 16, 2009
I prefer wOBA because:
1) I know it is good, I have studied and read about why it accurate at converting from all kinds of offensive contributions into runs.
2) Due to using it frequently, I have become accustomed to its scale. I know what .300 and .330 and .400 mean in wOBA terms.
3) Its creator, Tom Tango, is someone whose analysis I trust, and he is employed by the Mariners, which makes me like everything of his even more (for no good reason).
ARock - November 16, 2009
R/150 is essentially the same thing as wOBA
There are both based off of linear weights. wOBA is just R/150 scaled to OBP.
If you use this formula ((wOBA – LgwOBA)/1.15)*600, you’ll get R/150.
vivaelpujols - November 16, 2009
Yeah I like absolute runs better
but its personal taste.
Edgar for Pres - November 16, 2009
Here!!
CapSea - November 15, 2009
No.
Eyebrows - November 15, 2009
I caught one of those.
More than one actually
beastwarking - November 15, 2009
Why does Wobafet have sentient poo?
Adam B - November 15, 2009
I think wOBAfett's tail has its eyes out for rapists.
CapSea - November 15, 2009
Any projection system that only projects Mark Reynolds to strike out 166 times is a projection system I don't believe in.
Goose - November 15, 2009
If Mark Reynolds only strikes out 166 times (or less) by the time the season ends and provided he gets at least 530 AB...
I will let someone cockpunch me.
Slurvey - November 15, 2009
It's right on his career K rate
They don’t project as many AB’s.
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
My god Halman
OlSalty - November 15, 2009
Mike Napoli projects to be the Angels best hitter at 23 RAA/150.
Mathis is -21.
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009 via mobile
I project them to continue sharing time in a mind bogglingly dumb way
bluemax - November 16, 2009
DEFENSE
vivaelpujols - November 16, 2009
Mike Napoli projects to be the Angels best hitter at 23 RAA/150.
Mathis is -21.
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009 via mobile
retard
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009 via mobile
What's this about Naps?
royalcurve - November 16, 2009
Well I think we have our lineup set then
Dewey N - November 15, 2009
This looks like a winner
1. Ichiro!
2. Gutierrez
3. Lopez
4. Redman
5. Shelton
6. Carp
7. Langerhans
8. Lahair
9. Moore
Dewey N - November 15, 2009
Did we re-sign Lahair?
OlSalty - November 15, 2009
Looks like we better!
Dewey N - November 15, 2009
No way. If that is our lineup on opening day, I will die.
I say:
1: Ichiro
2: Gutierrez
3: Some DH currently a free agent.
4: Branyan
5: Lopez
6: Saunders/Langerhans
7: Hannahan/Hall
8: Jack Wilson
9: Johnson/Moore
ARock - November 15, 2009
And Griffey as Pinch Hitter / Designated Hugger
ARock - November 15, 2009
But that costs money
Dewey N - November 15, 2009
We should use Silva as a DH
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009
Now you're cooking with matches
Dewey N - November 15, 2009
I say we just forefit the DH so the other team has to
Corco - November 15, 2009
But the new FO was doing so well!
I don’t want to see them take a LaHairpin turn like this and do a 180 from their previous moves.
seattlebruin - November 16, 2009
It's bold.
abender20 - November 16, 2009
Atta boy!
royalcurve - November 16, 2009
Sickening.......well, go Z!
stupidquestions - November 15, 2009
If Bryan LaHair really gets 429 ABs in '10, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong with the offseason.
Benne - November 15, 2009
These have gotta be minor league projections too
I mean, Greg Halman’s not getting 362 ABs
gregrabble - November 15, 2009
The problem is we still haven't made any moves
So the roster spots are getting filled for projection purposes by players that on absolutely no planet should be in the Major Leagues in 2010 based on ’09 performance.
Enter Greg Halman.
cwel87 - November 15, 2009
Am I wrong for thinking he still should?
He’s awful but you’ve gotta just confirm he is as awful as he seemed to be considering his status in the org.
OlSalty - November 15, 2009
That's not how the AB projections work.
lailaihei - November 15, 2009
These are Major League projections for minor league players
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
Oh, ok. I don't know much about projections
That seems confusing though
gregrabble - November 15, 2009
If they're players who aren't actually going to get major league time, how do they figure out Games/ABs?
gregrabble - November 15, 2009
,
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/11/15/1158690/some-2010-projections#25685348
Aaron Campeau - November 15, 2009
Yeah I get that, but with 40 hitters listed, I'm just curious how they figure that Ronnie Prettyman is going to get 281 ABs
The least amount of games on that sheet is 61, and there are 40 players. I know it doesn’t matter at all in this case, I’m just curious.
gregrabble - November 15, 2009
Don't pay attention to those
Jeff Sullivan - November 15, 2009
Okey dokey
gregrabble - November 15, 2009
I think the minor league guys are wrong
I’ve sent Sean an email, but in looking through the projections, the AAAA types are just too optimistic. Shelley Duncan has the same offensive projection as Russ Branyan. Danny Richar has the same projection as Felipe Lopez. There’s 50 examples just like that. If a guy had good numbers in Triple-A, regardless of previous performance or age, he’s projected as a league average or better hitter in the majors for 2010.
Jon Knott, who will be 31 in the spring and had a mediocre season in the Mexican League last year after an okay but not great minor league career, is projected as a league average hitter in the majors next year.
That’s nutty.
The only thing I can come up with is Sean missed a translation somewhere.
davidcameron - November 15, 2009
Andy Tracy and Raul Ibanez have the same projection
Andy Tracy is 36, so you can’t even use aging curves to explain it.
These projections are just wrong. I’d put $100 on Sean issuing a fixed set in the next few days.
davidcameron - November 15, 2009
I've never heard of Andy Tracy.
Goose - November 15, 2009
Exactly.
davidcameron - November 15, 2009
Alright, that makes a lot more sense...
I was going to start playing with these numbers when they came out, but I can do better projections…
lailaihei - November 16, 2009
Halman projects for 17 walks
because that’s pretty much as few as someone can draw in a full season.
Only the most abysmally impatient hitters like Johjima and Yuni do that poorly (seriously, those guys were out to set some sort of record and didn’t tell us).
Llewdor - November 16, 2009
Uh...
Hate to break it to you, but Halman makes Yuni and Kenji look like Edgar Martinez.
Adam B - November 16, 2009
Right, but that makes him an historical outlier.
So decent projection system would ever predict a 3 walk season, even for a 3 walk hitter, because it’s just not a credible number (even if it’s accurate).
Llewdor - November 16, 2009
err
“No decent projection system”
Llewdor - November 16, 2009
Perhaps I was joking
Jeff Sullivan - November 16, 2009
Yes, but clearly some people didn't get that.
Llewdor - November 16, 2009
Are you allowed to do that?
I thought this was serious blog…
baetown415 - November 16, 2009
I figured I'd check out Toronto's projection first.
It looks pretty bad. Aside from Adam Lind they don’t have anyone (CHONE apparently doesn’t think much of Travis Snider).
Then I looked at Seattle and burst out laughing. We’re not just last. We’re last by a mile. We envy the hitting prowess of the Kansas City Royals.
Llewdor - November 16, 2009
We need to stock our AAA with more 36 year old unknown indepedent league veterans.
CapSea - November 16, 2009
We did, and that's why we get decent production out of LaHair and Redman.
Resign Chris Shelton! Jerry Owens for LF!
Bring Jesus Guzman HOME!
marc w - November 16, 2009
I miss Jesus Guzman :(
Of course, I was the only one who was ever really arguing that he would amount to anything at all.
And naturally, I remember that, and not the players I thought might have careers as role players and subsequently disappeared.
JY - November 16, 2009
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