SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Lookout Landing

Baseball, Life, And The Worth Of First Impressions

Warning: what follows is not a baseball post.

Driving home from work today, I found myself in some approximation of bumper-to-bumper traffic when a guy in a sports car to my right floored it to get ahead of me and merged into a 15-foot gap without signaling. Per usual, it pissed me off, and I spent the next half mile thinking about what I could do to him if I could catch up. I could flip him off. I could smirk and wave dismissively. I could throw a banana peel I had on the seat next to me at his windshield. I wanted to catch up bad. I wanted to catch up and teach him a lesson about being an asshole.

Drivers who pull those sorts of stunts bother me to the point where sometimes I've memorized and made note of their license plates so that I could indulge in a fantasy where I track them down at their houses. But this isn't about annoying drivers. This is about the human compulsion to judge other people based on very limited information.

People love to judge other people, and they love to arrive at these judgments so quickly that our culture has come to recognize and embrace the significance of a good first impression. When you're applying for a job. When you're meeting the parents. When you're on a first date. A good first impression can open doors while a bad one can lock them, and this isn't really something that people have ever questioned; rather, it's something that most people are happy to go along with, accepting that it's just a part of living life. In the past I've gone so far as to gloat about how important it is for people to make a good impression on me if they want me to like them.

And the nature of first impressions is that they're being made all the time, by everybody, to strangers. The man in the sports car this afternoon, for example, made a bad one on me, and presumably on others. The same goes for someone that talks on his cell phone too loud. A good first impression will be made by someone that, I dunno, holds a door open at the grocery store. People are always making impressions on other people, and in so doing are being judged on their actions.

But it's not that we judge their actions. We don't think "it was nice to hold the door open," or "it was a dick move to pass me on the street." We think "that woman is a good person for holding the door open," or "that guy is a prick for passing me on the street." We have a tendency to arrive at these sweeping conclusions based on very limited observations of behavior, and too often we celebrate these conclusions as being evidence of our perceptiveness. "Adam didn't say very much at dinner. He's kind of jerk."

Evolutionarily, you can kind of understand where this might come from. In nature, it's necessary for one to make snap judgments about another so that the former knows whether it's safe to proceed. If the other animal seems non-threatening, you can go ahead and eat the plant. If the other animals is a potential predator, it's best to avoid it at all costs. In nature, every being has to think quickly, or else it may shortly no longer be able to think at all.

But we don't really live in nature anymore, nor do we encounter frequent situations in which we're met by a possible predator, so the tendency to arrive at these snap judgments of another isn't nearly as important anymore. We can afford to take our time. We can afford to take our time in evaluating other people, and as such it seems like first impressions should play a far lesser role than they currently do.

The reason I'm posting this on a baseball blog is that it was baseball that got me thinking in this vein in the first place. Consider the scout. A scout will observe a potential draft pick over a small number of games. Maybe one game. Maybe four games. And based on these games, the scout will file a report on the player that goes back to the organization. This report will in large part determine where the player goes on the organization's draft board.

What of the scout that catches a pitcher on a day that he has the flu? What if he's watching a talented hitter who maybe strikes out against a couple breaking balls and goes hitless? What if he's watching a worse hitter who maybe stays back on a breaking ball and hits it for a single? Scouts are hired based on their skill in player evaluation, but they are limited to their windows of observation, and sometimes those windows can paint a remarkably misleading picture.

What of all the scouts that saw Ichiro in his first Spring Training and called him a bust?

We - the more statistically-inclined and forward-thinking baseball community - insist on basing our evaluations on all the available evidence, and if there isn't enough evidence, then this is reflected by our conclusions. But take us outside of the realm of sports and we start to act more like the rest of the population, judging people on one or two acts and a ton of alleged intuition.

First impressions are dangerous. They're dangerous because they bias you in one direction or another when these biases aren't justified. They can open you up to people who may not be very good, but worse and more often, they can close you off to people who have a whole lot to offer. One of my best friends is a pastel polo, pink hat-wearing Red Sox fan from Massachusetts. She possesses a number of characteristics I ordinarily consider off-putting, and it was only because of situations outside of my control that I got to know her better and realized how great she is. Left to my own devices, I doubt she'd be a friend of mine today.

That sucks. By believing so heavily in the significance of a good first impression, we are costing ourselves some potentially excellent relationships, because by and large we ignore the odds and see everything in black and white. This is probably best expressed in graphical form:

Oddspeople_medium

Any single act by another person gives us insight into that person's true nature, but there are very, very few acts - perhaps none - that give us an absolute answer as to whether or not the person is worth getting to know, or whether that person is romantically compatible, or whether that person is worth flipping off on the freeway. And so it is only by accumulating a wealth of information that we can approach a valid answer. A wealth of information that doesn't often fit into one act or one conversation or one first date.

Think about your worst qualities. We all have them. For example, I'm short-tempered. Sometimes I'm obliviously inconsiderate. I have a bad memory and things often slip my mind. Now think, would you want to be judged on these, or are you allowed to have the occasional bad day where your positive qualities might not show through? Shouldn't you then afford others the same courtesy? There are any number of innocent or perfectly acceptable reasons for why a person may act or appear in such a way that we perceive to be obnoxious, and it seems to me that we should try harder to give other people the benefit of the doubt, because the risk is minimal, and the reward is potentially gargantuan. Everybody has bad qualities. Where we fall short is in determining whether or not the positive qualities outweigh them.

Try not to consider this preaching. I'm not preaching, because I don't take my own advice. I got mad at that guy in the sports car. I wish ill on the woman in front of me who ordered the last chocolate croissant. But I'm trying to get better. I'm trying to get away from being so damn judgmental, because the truth of the matter is that there isn't a benefit. How does writing off another person based on limited interaction help in the least? There is far more to gain by opening yourself up to other people than there is to lose, and just being aware of this...I don't know if I'll ever be able to reverse my wiring, but I feel like I have a chance. And that makes me happy.

Time. In life, as in baseball, you need to give people the time and the opportunity to prove what they are. Don't, and you may find yourself running through Times Square in a thong.

22 recs  |  136 comments

Comments

I'm not sure this helps

and it’s probably totally nerdy, but whenever someone is a jerk to me on the road, I try to picture how much more they pay for car insurance than I do.

Thanks Jeff...

This is just another reminder of why I come here every day.

I think the key here is in the conclusion:

Try to do your best to avoid unwavering judgment.

But I would disagree if someone were to come away from this thinking that first impressions are useless or on the same level as judging a hitter from 10 games worth of data, not that that’s what you are advancing. The sort, and amount, of unconscious information that first impressions provide are incalculable. I think it’s little things that reveal a person’s character and I also think that it manifests itself in every situation.

However, it’s important to realize the limit to that and to be aware of your own biases because once you have someone pegged in a box, everything that person does or says can be twisted so as to conform to your already conceived notion of the person. That, is what’s dangerous, I feel.

Absolutely

First impressions can and often do provide invaluable information. One just needs to understand the limitations therein and try to maintain an open mind, because the affixing of a label is borderline irreversible.

Correct, mumbles.
In other words yes, I am a lush, but if you catch me before I am drunk I provide rides
Test:

Does this reasoning apply at all to Angels fans?

Some of us here are good friends with Angel fans.
Yeah, and it makes me wanna vomit every time I look in the mirror.
It makes me question my entire belief structure
Yeah, I think you should always strive to maintain an open mind with people

Your first conclusions might be wrong, and hell they might be right. But the quickness with which you arrive at that conclusion, and the steadfastness with which you stick to it despite further evidence to the contrary really defines you as a person, yourself.

Thank you...

…for summarizing Blink by Malcolm Gladwell.

This comment is both constructive and respectful.
I wasn't, but you're welcome.
Thank you for not summarizing anything by Blink 182.
How do you summarize the same three words being used over and over?
What's my age again?
THERE ARE...FOUR...WORDS
Rec'd for Star Trek reference.

I'm not much for the cat meme but this one always cracks me up.
Yeah, I love this, but can't explain why.
Probably because it's a hilarious image inspired by one of the best Star Trek episodes ever.
I hate sucking your dick all the time but god damn this is such a good post, I actually feel like I might become a better person.
Don't over think this.

That guy is still an idiot.

Then again,

Some people do dickish (and/or kind) things that just epitomize their whole beings. At my video store I’ve seen people who I thought were assholes/or had trouble getting dressed in the morning the first time I met them and they haven’t changed stripes the longer they’ve been customers (may the deity you worship bless them though).

This is an example of you collecting more information
That confirmed my first impression

But, I’ve been wrong too, so there’s that which is a whole other discussion. Someone should write about that.

Case in point

Just now I had a customer who came in with a rather difficult project that wouldn’t listen to my advice on how to go about it. He further off put me by complaining about the glare on the little signing terminal that we keep next to the registers, a really naggy point that annoyed me because he thought that I was in any power to fix this when clearly I’m not. At this point my opinion of him was pretty low and I was barely listening to him when he started telling me what he was doing.

Turns out he is designing a system that can collect HD data at sporting events for business data purposes on the very cheap. He wouldn’t tell me what exactly what it would be used for but when I brought up Hit/fx we ended up having a 5 minute discussion on it and he seemed knowledgeable on the subject. All this from a guy that I could barely stand listening to 10 minutes before.

The scout thing gets into something interesting...

How many great players have been passed up and dropped down draft boards because the scouts only saw them on a couple bad games, and only a couple scouts were lucky enough to see that player on a good day and recognize the potential? Or to bring up Robert’s crush (and switch sports for a second), how many GMs saw John Carlson have a terrible time at the combine and dismissed him, not realizing or not caring that he had the flu? Scouts try and give their GMs as much information as possible, but sometimes one bad viewing is all the prospect gets and he starts sliding down the board. And becomes some team’s lucky late pick up in a draft.

The NFL combine is a great example of SSS being preposterous.
Yes.

Yes it is. You’d think football would be less prone to it, since scouts routinely see all of a player’s games through their whole college career, and you have a large sample to draw upon (as far as Football is concerned anyway). But once those GMs show up at the combine, they seem to throw a lot of what their scouts say right out the window if a player really sucks or does really well. I think part of it is seeing these guys in person, and part of it is the first impression issue.

There are times when a player knows they are being scouted and try too hard in their performace.

Which, obviously, doesn’t help them make a good first impression.

Partly what Drayer attributes Ja. Wilson's crap offensive year to - that, and the injuries.
Thank goodness for fifth impressions is what I've learned.
Split a fifth with someone, and then reevalute?
It has worked on more than one occasion
Lookout Landing: Come for the baseball analysis, stay for the life lessons.
This entire article reminded me of Camu's La Chute

which is very odd, because the two don’t line up well on reflection. Great read though and I love the graph. I would put wearing aviators at nightime, indoors, above person stabbing you. Context is everything.

Why is the person offering you the last cupcake on a list of douches? Wouldn't that be negative douches?

I usually think of people that give me cupcakes as being nice.

It isn't on a list of douches
Jeff's basically saying that the odds are low that the person giving you the last cupcake is a douche.

Doesn’t mean they aren’t a douche, they could have an ulterior motive, but there is a good chance that someone who is a douche wouldn’t do that.

I found it interesting that the person giving you something is less likely to be a douche than the person giving to others through charity.
Agreed, some of us arent douches.

A few months I accidentally cut a biker off. He was going to turn left on a different road in front of me. He pulled his bike wide right to get a better angle but he just sat there for a split second.

I had no idea what he was doing so I just went around him. Dude started to turn and stopped…and my God I heard him through my window calling me every name in the book.

Its possible the guy cutting you off didn’t have douchebag intentions. I certainly didn’t pass the biker just to hurry to my destination. I just misread his driving. Should he ever meet me, he would know that the last thing I want to do is hurt someone, cause an accident, or screw someone who didn’t deserve it.

I imagine that in the day after what happened, I prolly fantasized more about being patient and wait to see what he does moreso than he did about kicking my ass.

I think I did the same thing when I was up in Bellingham.

It was kind of dark and I drove around the bicyclist. She immediately flashed her lights and as soon as I pulled into my brother’s place, she rode by and cussed me out, calling me a stupid asshole. I ignored her and went on my way to the door, and said “yea, you heard me you fucking cocksucker”. I mean, wow, first of all, I think bicyclists were supposed to be nice, conscious people. But second of all, I think I think I might’ve made the same mistake, cutting her off.

I guess these are just examples of what Jeff is talking about.

These stories (and Jeff's post) remind me of something I learned in psychology

We tend to make dispositional attributions towards others and situational attributions towards ourselves. That is, if someone does something bad to us, it’s because they’re a fuckwad, but if we do something bad to someone, it wasn’t our intent but is explainable by the circumstances, or maybe we were having a bad day, etc. I do the same thing when I do something bad while driving vs. someone else doing the same thing.

It’s interesting that we tend to be more forgiving of ourselves than others.

I just finished Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me recently.

It spends some time on exactly what you’re talking about. Interesting read.

People can rationalize all sorts of behaviors in all sorts of ways.
Myself and Matthew were discussing awhile back...

…regarding driving psychology, in particular. How one feels pressure and even indecision from very little information about the other drivers on the road.

There are alot of ways to rationalize these things, as PDB said below.

Im a big fan of psychology, so I enjoyed Jeff’s post alot. Ill give it the 20th rec.

That's also because bellingham is full of psychos. Seriously.
i'm probably a douche
Science of First Impression Judgments

There is actually an extensive field of training in how to make (more) accurate judgments of people based on limited information. It is probably too boring to waste your collective time, However, I have found it very helpful in my business, which depends on assessing people and quickly determining the best way to understand and communicate with them. Sometimes a banana peel hanging from their windshield wiper is the most appropriate form of communication.

However, Jeff, I think you should recheck your calculations. Intuitively, a person who stabs you only once doesn’t seem as douche-ist to me as a Red Sox or Yankee fan. Maybe if you separated it into stab wounds to a critical location vs. all other stabbings…

What are you going to say when Jeff Harris gets a job in the Red Sox system?
Similar Already Happened

I grew up with Dale Sveum. He was a coach for the Red Sox for a few years. Other than gloating and saying thanks when he got some guys thrown out, I pretty much just ignored that he existed for a while. Fortunately he went back to the Brewers where he belonged.

.

What an asshole.
He's just a little bit gay

Okay, a lot gay.

.

.

If anyone posts a douchey photo of Erik Bedard they're getting the strap.
He looks like he has to pee.
Or he just went in his pants
My eyebrows are the size of sofabeds.

Having learned to drive in the Northeast, we tend to have very different concepts of acceptable driving behaviour. If a person cuts me off, I think of him as an opportunist, not an asshole. If I don’t want anyone cutting me off, it is my own responsibility to stay close to the car in front of me. But I’ve lived in some other places in the country, and I know this is not the thought process most places.

And then again I’m a Sox fan, so according to your graph, there is a solid chance that I am a “douche.”

Like JamMasterJesus said, I hate to perform fellatio everytime you write these masterpieces.

But really, I think this article transcends baseball. And I really like that transcendentalist thinking.

I think in Seattle, this is especially a problem. Too often, we tend to avoid talking to people we do not know, unless we are in a setting where its comfortable. Even then, sometimes it takes a forced situation, like working on a class or work project, to talk to someone. It seems like whenever I would try to talk to someone I do not know, it becomes awkward if there is no predetermined purpose to our discussion. People simply aren’t outgoing here, and I feel like I slowly feel my confidence erode after many attempts to get to know people and then being blown off. I kind of wonder if that has anything to do with judging on first impressions.

Also

You should consider riding the bus if you are sitting in bumper to bumper traffic everyday.

Seattle

You’re right about that. I came to the east coast for college and have been out here for 10 years now. People out here are much more outgoing and better at making people feel comfortable in social settings.

The best way to engage someone you do not know is to ask questions.

It shows that you are actually interested in them. If you try to engage someone with anecdotes about yourself you will put them off.

Food for thought

“The difference between a .250 and a .300 hitter is one hit a week”

(heard during a great baseball talk at a stats conference a few years)

In a way, it’s almost miraculous that scouts are as successful as they are, given the limited sample size they’re working with. On the other hand, they would probably argue that they’re looking at inherent characteristics of a player (body type, approach, swing plane, arm action, etc.) which shouldn’t be much affected by day-to-day variability.

* a few years ago
Very well put

I do my best to live by these same rules, and it has worked out pretty well for me. I will be passing this along to several people that I think could stand to learn something from this. Thank you, Jeff.

The funny thing is that while driving I give basically everybody the benefit of the doubt.

When it comes to making judgments on people, I tend to reserve them for as long as possible.

…But I just wrote a post myself about people’s reactions to certain recent news events and my opinion of them based on said reactions.

Then I came over here, read this, and felt like a dick. Thanks, Jeff.

Everybody else on the road is an idiot or a jackass
This is the key to defensive driving.
Excellent post, Jeff!

Can’t we all just get along? OK, maybe not all of us, but most of us? A few people are truly douchebags, but most people do have at least a few redeeming qualities, so try to give them the benefit of the doubt. You just may not have a large enough sample size of interactions with a particular person to have seen the good in them.

Scouts and first impressions

Great post. I don’t know if the scout example is the same thing though. I mean, doesn’t a scout usually have a certain amount of information (stats, conversations with coaches/other scouts, etc.) before they go watch a player? So, even if that pitcher has the flu on the day the scout is watching, there is other information to go from. If a scout is then making a decision based on that one impression, that is a far worse judgment than judging the guy who cuts you off. I don’t know, maybe I’m off on that.

You've obviously never been in an Arab country...

with a lot of Pakistanis and Indians driving around.

Pakistan and India are not Arabic countries.
In at least a few Arab countries, Indian and Pakistani immigrants fill a lot of the service-level jobs and thus are similar to immigrants here.

While this is one possible explanation for his comment, you may also be right.

What on earth does race have to do with anything in this discussion?
Douchebags are a race?
If so I have finally found a reason to support xenophobia!
Not that I was really looking for one but you know what I mean
I'm so happy for you!
Different standards in different countries.

Kuwait, for example, is basically one giant speedway – the only time anyone follows the speed limit is when they pose for the traffic camera. (abender20 is right about the service-level jobs, btw.)

By comparison, S. Korea’s roads are hopelessly over-crowded. Driving constantly on the shoulder and sidewalks isn’t out of the question. Also, they don’t believe in standing in line. If you can wait patiently for something, you don’t need it as badly as they do.

Well done Jeff.

Just my own experience, but my closest friends are not people I liked right off the bat. They are the ones that I had to peel back the layers over time to see who they really were. First impressions are very useful in my job, but not nearly so much in my personal life.

I would just like to add...

that it seems perfectly reasonable to wish ill on the woman in front of you who took the last chocolate croissant. Or the whoever the idiot is who keeps deciding that more people want decaf coffee than Kenyan.

Solid post

Just wanted to lend a vote of support toward similiar semi-baseball related postings in the future. Good writing is good writing.

Wow,

The word “frat” never came up anywhere in the post or comment section, I am impressed.

Or Axe Body Spray.
I don't use Axe body spray though
Frat boys bathe in it, duh.
Very timley Jeff.

I was on the verge of getting out my car this morning to yell at some ass bag who was double parked and holding up traffic ever. I am so sick of bay area double parkers.

You forgot

to put “takes pictures of abs” on the d-bag graph.

Was the guy in a convertible?

Because that was probably me, especially if you’re one of those incredibly slow San Diego drivers who will line up for miles before an exit because you’re afraid of merging, all while leaving four car lengths in front of you . 15 feet is plenty of room for a car to fit in; if you don’t want anyone in front of you, don’t let anyone get in front of you…

Odds person is a douchebag: high
Yes, let's all drive with less than a car length between us.

Safe and effective!

That way, people will know that I don’t want them to bypass the long exit line and cut me off! I am pretty much asking for it otherwise. Silly me.

And let's always drive with less than a car length between us at freeway speeds!

There’s no way that could ever lead to an accident.

I think he meant at bumper-to-bumper conditions.
Even if it's bumper to bumper

It’s a dick move to zoom down next to the backed up exit lane, looking to cut in once someone is a LITTLE slow to accelerate in the stop and go. This leads to everyone being defensive and making sure to keep less than a car length at all times to stop the vultures from popping in.

Plus, when they fail to find a space before the exit, they’ll just force their way in, halfway in each lane, and wait for someone to let them in.

Happens on the viaduct all the time.

And on Elliott approaching the viaduct.

And on 405 at the Renton/167 exit. And on 90 at the Main St exit to Issaquah.

It is rather infuriating when you are waiting your turn and people pull that shit.

And, oddly enough, it further slows down the flow of traffic, thus adding to the time it takes.
Numerous studies have shown that leaving two car lengths even in stop and go conditions helps ease congestion.
15 feet is not enough room to stop safely, is the point

You’re fucking with peoples lives when you drive like a crazy person just so you can get somewhere a minute or two early.

Interestingly, about half of this point is pretty spot on

San Diego drivers are very, very conservative compared to the rest of southern California

I was going to say...

I drove in LA County for 4 years, and never once saw 15 feet between cars (at least in the fast lane). My first year, I was absolutely terrified. By the end, I just thought it was normal.

Driving in southern California is terrible

People in the Bay Area thought that I was aggressive but I was almost getting run off the road the first few weeks here. Sheesh

/apologies for the semi-LLLJ

People in the Bay drive too slow, but they're nothing compared to Seattle
Idiot.
I think this point is fair
It was the flooring it in traffic and cutting in without signaling for the purpose of moving up one car length that was annoying
He was obviously a very important person trying to get to his very important thing very quickly and importantly

How dare you get in his way, you prole.

Every time I see someone run a red light in downtown Seattle

I ask myself what’s going through that person’s head. It’s an incredible risk and the reward is that you get to wait at the next intersection. Lights are synchronized for a reason!

After nearly running a red light by an intersection camera I gave myself a 30 minute lecture on the risk/reward ratio for the rest of the drive

Haven’t done it since.

Did the camera stop you or was it your conscience/whatever?
"After nearly running a red light"
It's also ridiculously unsafe to run reds in general in SoCal because of the left turns on red lights
DFW Speech

I don’t have time to read through the comments to see if this was already mentioned but the subject matter of this post was touched upon by David Foster Wallace in his commencement speech to Kenyon College several years ago. The speech was recently published as a short book entitled "This is Water".

He basically proposed that refraining from making snap judgments as you described above is a benefit of knowing how to think and of being a well-adjusted adult – both phenomenon he attributes to a solid liberal arts education (given his intended audience, it made sense).

You might not condemn the man, but you can condemn the behavior.

If someone doesn’t hold the door for someone else, fine. It’s rude, but whatever, maybe he’s in a rush or his parents failed him or something. But driving is already so dangerous that I have no patience for people who put others at higher risk of injury/death in order to save one or two minutes on their commute. Keeping a reasonable following distance and going with the speed of traffic are the absolute simplest, most effective ways to not die on the road.

So yeah, perhaps he’s a good person in most other aspects of his life, but I don’t think you’re wrong for hoping he rear-ends someone with a good lawyer and fucks up his car five minutes later.

This is an unusual but interesting bit.

It made me really think a lot about how first impressions (and the impression of douchebaggery) work.
If, in a vacuum, you just randomly saw this guy somewhere on the street, what would your first impression be?

My first impression would be "Thank God the prostate is a sex organ."

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.