The idea is not new, but this is the first that I can recall it being seriously talked about. According to Shannon Drayer the Mariners are going to give Dustin Ackley some reps at second base. Here's a quick rundown of some pros and cons:
PROS
CONS
For now, I am going to reserve judgment until we get further details on just what "working out at 2nd base" entails, how the rest of the offseason goes and what level (and position) Ackley begins the 2010 Minor League season at. Also, other things might happen. Rest assured though, this is probably going to be talked about a lot. Regardless of what actually happens, the subject of the outfield's future has already been a hot topic to discuss.
0 recs | 252 comments
.
Here’s Geoff Baker on it too.
chezbergrur - November 20, 2009
Sounds like a little more than "working out" there from that account
OlSalty - November 20, 2009
Whoa that sounds a lot more definitive than what Shannon said.
BrianL - November 20, 2009
I'm strongly for it
I feel like we’ve got a Franklin Gutierrez who is going to be locked into center field for a long time, and a left fielder Ackley is not nearly as valuable as a 2nd baseman Ackley, plus, as you said, it’s damn near impossible to find a lefty power hitting second baseman. If it works, that’s awesome.
If not, well, yeah, it is a gamble, but we had no guarantees he’d be a + centerfielder either
Corco - November 20, 2009
I was in favor of this before but now I'm not so sure.
It sounds like they’re going to have him try playing a bit of both this year and see what happens, and I’m afraid that might hamper his development at either for a while.
OlSalty - November 20, 2009
Jose Lopez is SO getting traded this off-season
ManifestDestiny - November 20, 2009
who would be the replacement until ackley is ready?
if thats the case.
chezbergrur - November 20, 2009
Any number of people
Jeff Sullivan - November 20, 2009
any examples you can give me?
chezbergrur - November 20, 2009
One of these people or not one of these people we could acquire in a trade or something
Ronnie Belliard (35) – Type B
Jamey Carroll (36)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Mark DeRosa (35) – Type B
Nick Green (31)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Orlando Hudson (32) – Type A
Adam Kennedy (34)
Felipe Lopez (30) – Type B
Mark Loretta (38)
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Placido Polanco (34) – Type A
Luis Rodriguez (30)
Juan Uribe (31)
OlSalty - November 20, 2009
Or Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo, etc.
abender20 - November 20, 2009
I really want to see more of what Tui could do out there.
Goose - November 20, 2009
Or those people
Pretty much anyone who can play second base.
OlSalty - November 20, 2009
thanks yo.
chezbergrur - November 20, 2009
Please capitalize the beginnings of your sentences.
Matthew - November 20, 2009
Sorry.
chezbergrur - November 20, 2009
KELLY JOHNSON
tait644 - November 21, 2009
It is harder to find a plus hitting secondbaseman or a plus hitting center fielder?
Poochie - November 20, 2009
We don't need to look for one of those.
InSpokane - November 20, 2009
Agree to disagree
Poochie - November 20, 2009
Center Fielders are just the best OFs on a team
And moving a CF level defender to the corner just means you get about 10 more runs of defense out of the corner. Ichiro is a CF. Endy Chavez was a CF. They just play the corners. Supposing Ackley plays in the corner, there’s no major loss to moving him there if we have, for example, the best outfiedler alive in center.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
There's a minor loss
Poochie - November 21, 2009
LF would have fewer chances than CF
But in Safeco, a plus defensive LF is a large competitive advantage, especially when the Jason Bay’s of the world come into town. It’s like if the A’s had 1B/3B with range to run down the pop ups in all that foul territory.
Though if the M’s continue to shift to left handed hitters, I’m not sure what that does to the fly ball distribution chart and how that would impact the number of chances opposing LF would have in a game.
CMC_Stags - November 24, 2009
Happy to see them try it
Nothing wrong with a little versatility from your top prospect.
Jeff Sullivan - November 20, 2009
If he could actually play both that would be incredible
OlSalty - November 20, 2009
Yeah he could be almost as good as Zobrist
Poochie - November 20, 2009
I wonder if he can catch...
Matthew - November 20, 2009
I bet he would be one hell of a closer.
InSpokane - November 20, 2009
While I understand the concern it could hurt his development in the outfield
It seems like it is worth a shot to see if he takes to it.
Gihyou - November 20, 2009
The thing is that 6 months ago he wasn't an outfielder either
It’s not like we’ve committed to him playing the outfield. If the organization thinks he’s better suited at 2nd (and therefore that Gutz is a long term solution in center field, something I certainly subscribe to), then I’m all for it.
Corco - November 20, 2009
Wasn't he an OFer until his TJ surgery?
Aaron Campeau - November 20, 2009
Not really, no.
Nevermind.
Aaron Campeau - November 20, 2009
And a pitcher.
He can still close for us!
JY - November 20, 2009
Let the Utley comps start anew...
tait644 - November 21, 2009
Dustin Ackley is a switch hitting Chase Utley
only a better defender.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
Sweet so we have acquired one of the top 5 players in all of baseball
OlSalty - November 21, 2009
Yes, didn't you know that top draft pick always pan out?
As future all stars, no less.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
Ackley isn't a switch hitter?
JY - November 21, 2009
Eh...
The only concern I have is when those opposed to him playing out of CF mention this move as being detrimental to his development, in what way do they mean?
It’s not like he’s so raw that he requires years of instruction in order to cut-it in the majors, and I don’t buy it that a professional ball-player would be SO distracted by a position shift that it would negatively effect his level of play—And even if it did; Ackley was ALREADY going to undergo a position change from 1B to CF, was THAT move not supposed to effect him detrimentally?
I think it boils down to whether or not he can physically/mentally play a position. If he can stick at 2B while Gutierrez plays CF, awesome. If the team needs him to still play the outfield, no big deal, he transitions there.
I just think the potential upside of having Ackley, Guttierez and Saunders (or some as of yet unknown LF) playing in the same line-up outweights any perceived negatives.
Adam B - November 20, 2009
I love this.
It’s not just the current OF logjam; most of our good minor league talent is in the OF and I feel like the organization has strong enough scouting credentials to know whether or not he has the correct defensive skillset to play 2B. I don’t know very much about what to look for when scouting players (and I’ve seen very little of Ackley in any case) but I’ve heard more than one person that generally knows what their talking about state that his abilities might be more well suited to 2B than CF.
Best case scenario is he maximizes his defensive value and is an adequate glove at 2B, worst case scenario is he moves back to the OF and it delays him a few months. The reward is decent and the risk is small.
Aaron Campeau - November 20, 2009
I'm also in this camp.
What do we have in the way of 2B prospects? Tui kind of? Triunfel kind of? But we have lots of depth at OF, so it seems to me in a way we are trading from an area of strength to address an area of weakness, which is always a good idea.
Goose - November 20, 2009
Tui kind of, Triunfel kind of
Plus Juan Diaz, sort of, and Gabriel Noriega way down the line, though he’d be better at short.
It is just that, using an area of strength to fix an area of weakness, and is consequently awesome.
JY - November 20, 2009
Kyle Sieger?
Kind of ironic that Ackley ends up taking his former teammate and fellow Mariner draftee’s position.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
Seager. And I just now noticed he's discussed below.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
yeah, I'm not as wild about Seager as are others.
JY - November 21, 2009
Seager is better suited for 3rd.
Scruffy Lefty - November 21, 2009
*Defensively
Scruffy Lefty - November 21, 2009
It makes sense from a position of organizational need
And personally I don’t think either of those really count because Triunfel is probably gonna fill a different need at third base and Tui probably can’t play second well enough.
But if you’re a fan of using every prospect to their maximum potential value then trading your redundancies to fill the gaps, it might delay his development and CF is an even more scarce position as far as good hitters go.
It’s not that big of a deal now, but at some point they’re probably going to have to commit to one or the other since he hasn’t played either position before and he’s got quite a bit to learn. Expecting him to learn both at once on a level which would be adequate in the majors might be asking too much unless they really think he’s capable of picking them both up.
OlSalty - November 20, 2009
To me it comes down to a handed-ness split
If he were right handed, yeah, put him in centre field. Since he’s a lefty gap/power hitter, he has a tonne more value at second. 2nd and centre are quite similar positions in terms of defensive value, with centre obviously being a bit more important, but 2nd still being a premium position. But power hitting lefty 2nd basemen don’t exist. Power hitting lefty centre fielders do, although they are rare. The amazingness of filling a Safeco-perfect hitter at a position like 2nd base makes me say “Put him at second”
Corco - November 20, 2009
especially when we have a Franklin Gutierrez to fill centre field for the next several years
Corco - November 20, 2009
Hmmm...
Wait, isn’t there some guy who plays in the National League, whose name sounds a bit like ‘Ackley’… Updike? Upson? He might even have played in the World Series this year. I just can’t seem to remember his name. Oh well.
cyberwulf - November 20, 2009
There's a guy named Utley but he's not a power hiter.
He just hits a lot of doubles that go over the fence.
lailaihei - November 20, 2009
That's a funny way to spell Jose Lopez.
Slurvey - November 20, 2009
Exactly.
Corco - November 20, 2009
Any idea what the plan is for Kyle Seager?
If Ackley is going to move to 2B, he will likely go to Single-A or Double-A, right? Seager finished the season at the Single-A level and I would imagine he might move up considering he his line is decent and he came out of college. I know he isn’t considered a high-level prospect, but he was a third round draft pick and I would imagine Jack Z wants to get him moving through the system considering his position.
Wilder. - November 20, 2009
Seager, I could see at High Desert.
He never hit for the power Ackley did though. He might be able to stick at second, but his bat isn’t in the same league as Ackley.
JY - November 20, 2009
I see no way Ackley goes to Single-A
That would retard his offensive development.
Ackley starts at Double-A, Seager at High-A.
Matthew - November 20, 2009
Kyle Seager is a stretch to ever be anything more then a utility man...
And he’s not nearly as advanced a hitter as Ackley anyway.
IOW, the Mariners aren’t blocking anybody by this move which is one reason it could really pay off for them.
Adam B - November 20, 2009
Seager is more of a lottery ticket than a prospect
he’s the kind guy who has a 1/250 chance of being a 3+ WAR player, a small (1/100) chance of being average, and a chance (1/8) of playing from the bench.
In short, he’s not the sort of player that comes into consideration when you’re deciding how to develop top prospects.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
I'm reading this as the organization loving Franklin Gutierrez and/or
aren’t convinced Ackley is going to be a plus centerfielder. Possibly the arm strength hasn’t returned? Doesn’t hurt to try it out. I trust the guys who have scouted him for well over a year now, have watched him daily in the AFL, etc..
Rudy4three - November 20, 2009
I like the idea a lot more now that I've seen how well Schumaker made the transition.
Most agree that Ackley is about a year away from the majors as a hitter. It took Schumaker less than a season (all in the majors, no less) to become an average-ish defensive 2B.
If Ackley is athletic enough and has the quickness and agility needed to play the position, I see no reason not to try him out there.
Tui isn’t a second baseman, Triunfel might have the range but he’s still years away and it’s a waste of his cannon arm. The other guys in the org don’t project to be major league regulars anyway, at least at this point in their development (I mean they could have decent MLB careers but none of them are anywhere near locks).
Anyway, as far as positional changes go this one isn’t too out-there. It’s not like we’re trying to turn Poythress into a CF or something.
lailaihei - November 20, 2009
Uhhhhh Schumaker was -7.7 at 2nd base.
Goose - November 20, 2009
Yes, but he also was a -30 until the end of May and then showed remarkable improvement
Poochie - November 20, 2009
Ah. Well in any case SSS and all that, but I would hope Ackley fares a little better.
Goose - November 20, 2009
You have to consider the fact that Schumaker didn't play 2B at all, even in the minors, before the transition.
I bet he’s a +UZR guy in 2010 at 2B, given that he won’t be doing on-the-job training at the major league level.
lailaihei - November 20, 2009
Yes, but I actually watched the transitiion
I don’t know that he’s actually a neutral defender going forward, but the progress he made was remarkable
Poochie - November 20, 2009
One year of UZR.
Scouts seem to think he was solid by year’s end.
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
Works for me.
Looking forward to seeing how this turns out.
ThundaPC - November 20, 2009
You make it very difficult not to play the "What could our lineup look like?" game.
RunningFool - November 20, 2009
Done for you, 2011
RF Ichiro
CF Gutz
DH Lefty badass
1B Lefty Badass
3B Righty Badass
2B Ackley
LF Saunders
C Moore
SS Some dude
That’s a World Series team right there
Corco - November 20, 2009
SB sees that and he's gonna cut you. Maybe squeeze Loafie in there someplace?
Kermit. - November 20, 2009
If Ackley's going to second then Lopez is gone
He has low value at any other position
Corco - November 20, 2009
Fuck you
seattlebruin - November 20, 2009
I tried to warn him but nooooo, didn't want to hear it.
Oh well, all that video game practice you ought to be a finely tuned killing machine by now.
Kermit. - November 20, 2009
He couldn't see the light and realize Lopez was a 25 WAR player.
Slurvey - November 20, 2009
You're going to have to face this head on.
abender20 - November 21, 2009
Agreed. I think our FO is looking to expunge our old middle infield ASAP.
Sec 108 - November 21, 2009
Only because Loafie needs his rest, he has a complete game every 5th day to think about.
Kermit. - November 21, 2009
Hmmm...
RF-Ichiro!
CF-Guti
2b-Ackley
DH-Poythress
1b-Raben
3b-Triunfel
LF-Saunders
C-Moore
SS- Some dude
Slurvey - November 20, 2009
Wilson is inked through '11.
So he’s that “some dude”.
You’re hoping on Raben making some pretty rapid progress up through the minors, and Triunfel somehow hitting for more power than Tui. Not that I’m suggesting we should project him based off this fact alone, but he does only have eight home runs in 925 regular season plate appearances.
JY - November 20, 2009
Hmmmm...
Raben could start his way from A+ to somewhere around AA/AAA but then that was what I thought pre-surgery and there’s a bunch of questions surrounding him still. I put Triunfel at third because I think his defense and a semi-solid bat combined with speed might win the job but then again I like Tui still so…
Slurvey - November 20, 2009
A lot of questions still about Raben
The micro-fracture surgery he went through is anything but a sure thing. There’s even a possibility he may never recover enough to play baseball again.
nathaniel dawson - November 21, 2009
I find it quite easy!
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
Aren't 2B and CF basically equal in terms of value?
vivaelpujols - November 20, 2009
I would imagine its harder to find plus defensive center fielders
Poochie - November 20, 2009
I would imagine its harder to find lefty gap/power hitting second basemen who can field worth a shit then it is to find lefty gap/power hitting centre fielders who fan field worth a shit
Corco - November 20, 2009
I'm just saying its harder to play center than it is second
Poochie - November 20, 2009
A ground ball is harder to catch then a flyball.
So I sort of disagree with your statement. But a really good defensive CF is more valuable so I know what you’re saying.
Scruffy Lefty - November 21, 2009
I imagine it would be very difficult to catch a ball on the ground
CKel - November 21, 2009
Not if you were the ground
vivaelpujols - November 21, 2009
It's hard to find someone who has the footspeed for center plus a decent bat
Poochie - November 21, 2009
This is why I agree sort of.
Scruffy Lefty - November 22, 2009
on the defensive spectrum Centre Field is right ahead of Second Base
Corco - November 20, 2009
They have the same positional adjustment
Both +2.5, implying they are equal for practical purposes.
vivaelpujols - November 20, 2009
Furthermore,
there were the same number of 3+ WAR 2B as CF in 2009.
As far as I have ever seen, the difference between CF and 2B is small enough that this isn’t a big deal. If they were talking “Ackley to First” because the organization needs a 1B I’d be pretty annoyed. But the difference between 2B ad CF is a few runs at most.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
They're at the same place on the defensive spectrum, but there are fewer elite 2B than CFers.
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
I wouldn't mind him becoming our Chase Utley in a few years, if that is the most likely scenario if he makes this transition.
Fin - November 20, 2009
Well, Chase Utley is really really awesome so that can hardly be the most likely scenario
But yes that would be nice.
Gihyou - November 20, 2009
Ackley = Switch-Hitting Chase Utley
I read it above where I wrote it the first time.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
And it still isn't correct.
abender20 - November 21, 2009
But I was joking the first time too.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
"fool" is fitting.
Scruffy Lefty - November 21, 2009
Careful,
you might look foolish missing the sarcasm.
philosofool - November 21, 2009
Sarcasm can be hard to detect on the internet.
redwolf75 - November 22, 2009
I think Ackley will hit and walk to get on base well enough.
But the power probably wont be Utley level. My balls tell me he’s Derek Jeter West in terms of overall hitting, though I have no way of substantiating that claim.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
I think hoping he turns into either of those guys -- both of whom are Hall of Fame talents -- is a bit unrealistic.
I’d love it, of course, but being realistic, I’m hoping he turns into Brian Roberts. Different kind of player, I know, but it’s hard to find a good comp for what I’m thinking, which is basically: good contact, high OBP, average power, average to above average at second. Roberts is the first thing that comes to mind.
Teej - November 21, 2009
Yeah Derek Jeter was the best hitter in baseball, we can't expect Ackley to match that
OlSalty - November 21, 2009
I guess I should probably scale it down a bit.
But what I was thinking was similar isolated walk rates and power rates. So what I’m thinking is he’ll hover in the .70 to .90 ISO walk rate and .150 to .170 power rate areas. I have a feeling his contact rates will be lower than Jeter’s though, so he’ll strike out a bit more.
Back to my balls, they’re thinking a career line of .290 / .360 / .440 out of Ackley wouldn’t be out of the question.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
I think his career average is over .300.
JY - November 21, 2009
Well, Jeter's is .313
So I scaled mine back a bit. Do you think my estimations on overall on base skills and power are off the mark? If they aren’t, then my calling him the Derek Jeter West can’t be that ridiculous.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
I think they're close, yes.
Basically, there are five players in UNC history that have hit over four hundred, ever. Ackley did it three times. I expect his ability to hit for average to be very, very good.
JY - November 21, 2009
Who are the other four?
Not that it matters, but it might.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 22, 2009
The list includes B.J. Surhoff and Brian Roberts.
And Jeremy Cleveland and Jim Mooring, with the case still out on the sixth in Tim Fedroff.
Ackley has three of the top ten seasons in batting average for them, but the rest of the list is not exciting, as you can see.
JY - November 22, 2009
Not exactly good comps for skill sets.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 23, 2009
So is the writing figuratively on the wall for Lopez now?
This seems like a big sign that they’re not picking up his 2011 option or planning on trying to re-sign him. And if they aren’t going to do that they probably don’t let him walk away at the end of 2010 with his value now probably higher than it’s ever been, unless they want to take a chance on him being type A.
It kind of makes the whole moving him to first base rumor thingy look like one of those fake last ditch efforts teams make with players they’re about to trade who might lead to a fan backlash.
OlSalty - November 21, 2009
I could see them picking up his option and then immediately shipping him to another team.
Or who knows, the whole Tui/Hannahan/Wilson thing could fall about at third, and Lopez could man that position for us until Triunfel is ready.
katal - November 21, 2009
Ackley I think his development will be roughly the same.
Dustin a different way – it’s not like he wasn’t learning a new position
CapSea - November 21, 2009
Hey! Guess what! This was so lame I decided not to post this, and then hit the post button instead of cancel!
How about that. Dammit.
CapSea - November 21, 2009
Sympathy rec.
Eyeball Kid - November 21, 2009
Agreed.
Those who rec’d this, even out of sympathy, should be ashamed.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
I'm wrecking it so it turns green and everybody sees it. Just to razz you.
Because you’re such a nice guy, and everybody could use a good razzing now and then.
Kermit. - November 21, 2009
Argh!
<3
CapSea - November 22, 2009
Actually I thought it was clever and liked it
But you admitted you didn’t like it and bingo!
Kermit. - November 22, 2009
It's too bad deleting comments is not kermitted.
CapSea - November 22, 2009
This is why I am a terrible judge of puns, and my attempts at intentional puns are wince inducing.
Kermit. - November 22, 2009
I thought inducing winces was the primary goal of punning.
CapSea - November 22, 2009
I think this is brilliant. Bravo!
MT Olson - November 21, 2009
Never have I seen such insightful analysis ...
… not even in any of my soil mechanics lab reports (my Mohr’s Circles were frickin’ awesome).
The easiest +1 decision I’ve ever made.
Steve Nelson - November 24, 2009
Wow, Mohr's Circles
It’s been a while since I had to do one of those, but it brings back “fond” memories.
el generico - November 24, 2009
Sadface
Graham MacAree - November 24, 2009
A42
lemonverbena - November 21, 2009 via mobile
You sank my battleship
And I thought it was safely hidden.
strudel - November 23, 2009
So where does this put Triunfel?
He can’t play SS, and has been getting time at 2nd and 3rd recently. But he doesn’t have enough power to play 3rd and now he’ll be blocked by Ackley at 2nd. I know he’s a couple years away, but 2nd looked like his destined position until this announcement. Maybe some reps out in the outfield would be worthwhile.
Scrupio - November 21, 2009
3rd has always looked like his projected position
Brian Floyd - November 21, 2009
Really? His lack of power always seemed, to me at least, to make him a less than prototypical thirdbaseman and fit better at 2nd
Scrupio - November 21, 2009
I thought he was supposed to have pretty good power upside once he grew
OlSalty - November 21, 2009
John Sickels made a comment that to him, Triunfel looks 25.
And he wasn’t referring to a falsified age, but that Triunfel has put on some serious muscle and lost a lot of mobility already. Though, considering he recently saw Carlos after a nearly full season of inactivity due to a leg injury, I’m not sure how much stock to put into that comment.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
Here's a screenshot from the AFL All-Star game, having seen him in Spring Training, he looks like he put on a ton of muscle
edddgar - November 21, 2009
Sorry, I meant the mobility part of my statement.
Hard to grade someone’s mobility so fresh after a broken leg. Might need to give him some time to return to form… or not… before judging mobility.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 21, 2009
You don't have to hit for power to be a third baseman.
You just have to hit.
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
True enough, I just hope he'll hit well enough for any position
Scrupio - November 21, 2009
He was doing pretty good in High Desert the second half of last year
Who knows how he comes back from the injury, of course, but there were promising signs.
And he’s supposed to have an amazing arm that’s kind of wasted at 2B.
OlSalty - November 21, 2009
Or field a whole hell of a lot
Poochie - November 21, 2009
Stilll like 3 years away from the majors.
So I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Even if Triunfel’s project position was 2nd base, AND Ackley succeeds at 2nd base, AND they don’t trade either of them, that far in the future has so much wiggle room – especially with regards to position – that I don’t think it’s even that much of a concern.
CapSea - November 22, 2009
Ackley at 2B
the majority of offensive talent in the organization is in the outfield, true, but none of us have seen him in the middle of the infield so to venture an opinion is absurd. I keep hearing about everyone but Tui at third- he looks like the man there to my eyes. Triunfel is 2 years away realistically, and they need to decide where he is going to be to advance his development. Joe Dunnigan looks like a fast mover through the organization in the outfield, with power. Lets not forget all these players are poetential trading chips. As far as Lopez is concerned, he’s fine at second for the time being, a sure things at first as well, and he can flat out hit. A few more walks and he’s a .300 hitter with rising power, a proven run producer. Trading him would be a shame, a man with ability and character.
gitanoloco - November 21, 2009
Absurd? Really?
Also, Lopez is not a good hitter and will most likely never be a good hitter.
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
But 25 homeruns!!!
And he’s the best at fouling off ball four after ball four!
JLProck - November 21, 2009
But he is an average hitter.
Average has value. Its above replacement.
ARock - November 23, 2009
It has value but it's not like you can't find equivalent talent elsewhere
I wouldn’t define average hitters as “good” hitters, either.
OlSalty - November 23, 2009
Not saying that it doesn't/isn't.
Aaron Campeau - November 23, 2009
Tui? Really?
I keep hearing about everyone but Tui at third- he looks like the man there to my eyes.
I have a hard time seeing that myself. To this point, he hasn’t shown yet that he can supply any defensive value to a team. He looks like he may turn out to be a capable hitter, but not to the level that could overcame poor defensive play. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Mike Morse. I just have a hard time seeing Tui as ever being valuable enough overall to be an above average player,.
nathaniel dawson - November 22, 2009
But Tui is a better hitter than Mike Morse and is a better fielder.
Tui might be meh at third but he’s a pretty good hitter.
Slurvey - November 22, 2009
Im so glad walks are now included in average.
Kirk - November 22, 2009 via mobile
Maybe he meant to say:
“A few more walks and he is a .300 wOBA hitter”?
ARock - November 23, 2009
26 homers and 90 plus rbi’s is not a good hitter? What team have you been watching? He hit over .300 after June 1, and was terrific in the clutch.
gitanoloco - November 21, 2009
RBIs and batting average aren't good ways to measure a hitter's ability and performance in the clutch isn't a repeatable skill..
The homers are nice, but the ~.300 OBP and ~.325 wOBA aren’t so hot. He’s a league average player and he’s cheap, and combined with passable defense and his being a second baseman that makes him an asset, but he’s not a good hitter.
(Also, please use the subject line and reply button.)
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
I admire the fact you responded to this.
Anytime I see this question,
I just ignore everything else.Sec 108 - November 23, 2009
His OBP is horrible
And he wasn’t exactly hammering most of those homers, either, for what that’s worth
He’s also a bad fit for this park
And his contract expires in 2011 and that’s a club option year for 5mil. His perceived value is as high as it’s likely to get. If they do wind up committing to Ackley at 2B they’re likely going to have to let him walk or move him to a different position, because he’s going to want to get paid and get years and that would block Ackley were he to stay where he is.
OlSalty - November 21, 2009
Please refrain from comments about RBIs and Clutch hitting.
“Clutching hitting” is the half-full version of “lazy when it’s not that important.”
Spend some time thinking about why Grady Sizemore had fewer RBI than Aramis Ramirez, Josh Hamilton and Jason Bay in 2008. This will help you understand what an RBI means. (Hint: the answer is not “Sizemore is a worse hitter” nor “Sizemore is bad in the clutch.”)
philosofool - November 21, 2009
His defense is pretty subpar.
His offensive value is inflated due to the HRs and RBIs and even the HRs he’s hitting are lame and only 1 went past 400 feet.
He doesn’t run well, he’s not a particularly amazing defender, he doesn’t get on base and his pull power isn’t a good fit for Safeco.
Slurvey - November 21, 2009
His defense isn't subpar.
He is league average.
Aaron Campeau - November 21, 2009
Batting Average After June is not a stat I care about
ChristopherA - November 21, 2009
Lopez spent much of the season hitting third in the lineup.
Much of his RBI numbers can be attributed to having Ichiro (.386 OBP) and Gutierrez (.339 OBP) hitting in front of him.
Wilder. - November 21, 2009
Damn Ichiro
vivaelpujols - November 21, 2009
Be less condescending to people who know more about baseball than you or find a different site
Graham MacAree - November 21, 2009
Jeff Francouer also hit well over .300 the last month of the season.
And his wOBA during that time was .397. He must be a good hitter, too.
JLProck - November 22, 2009
Maybe he's talking about a different team's Lopez because the one that I remember was terrible
Robert - November 22, 2009
I found your hypothesis interesting and so I did some research.
Jose Lopez was the only Lopez to hit exactly 26 homers with exactly 90 RBI last year.
abender20 - November 22, 2009
Did you check the minors?
vivaelpujols - November 22, 2009
Even I don't care that Jose Lopez had 90 RBIs this season
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
HIlariously, per FanGraphs, he wasn't even good in the clutch
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
Lopez
you speak as if this team has the luxury of unloading run producing hitters. No, Lopez is not an ideal 3 hitter, but considering where this team is at this point in time, I don’t see another alternative unless Z pulls off something amazing. Remember, he had nobody exactly lethal hitting behind him, and a high OBP would not have been a productive stat for him- you don’t drive in runs with base on balls. As for the comment stating that the only reason he had 90 plus RBI’s is due to Ichiro’s performance……….well………duh………..that is his job- drive in the set up guys
gitanoloco - November 21, 2009
My goodness.
Wilder. - November 22, 2009
I have a new sig. It's gold Jerry! GOLD!
Goose - November 22, 2009
C'mon, I think that's piling on a bit too much.
redwolf75 - November 22, 2009
He should tell that to Andruw Jones.
11th inning of game 6 Kenny Rogers walked Andruw Jones to force in a run and send Atlanta to the World Series.
Sec 108 - November 23, 2009
Placido Polanco has posted nearly identical wOBA's to Jose Lopez the last two years
Placido Polanco is also a better defender than Jose Lopez. And he is a free agent. Not that I am advocating that move specifically it’s just one example. There are no miracles required here, there are many many options available that wouldn’t represent a significant dropoff in production. Lopez isn’t nearly as good as you think he is.
OlSalty - November 22, 2009
Have you looked at Polanco's head?
It’s like he an extra top of the head sewn on around his own head. He should charge teams extra for the circus freak factor.
short - November 23, 2009
And use the reply function like people have already asked you to
OlSalty - November 22, 2009
I'm going to give you some very helpful advice.
You’re not right. Everybody else here knows that and is going to tell you as such. If you have a lot of people tell you you’re wrong, you have basically two choices:
1). Persist in being wrong to the point where you eventually are ostracized from this site.
or
2). Realize that something might be up here and look around the site for reasons why we’re saying what we’re saying.
The term “when in Rome, do as the Romans do” is a piece of sage advice. Whatever you’ve read before, whatever you’ve learned before, wherever you’ve posted before, is irrelevant. You’re here, now. This site is a home to people who study advanced methods of player analysis and sabermetrics. If you’re not going to be willing to follow along, then you’re going to be asked to leave in a hurry.
And Graham? He wont be as nice as I am right now about it.
The Typical Idiot Fan - November 22, 2009
And don't think TIF is asking you to act like a sheep and believe us because we tell you to do so.
There are some very knowledgable baseball people that frequent this site, and those people know that Jose Lopez just isn’t that good a player. Is he useful? Yes. We could certainly do worse at 2B. But improving at 2B also wouldn’t be very difficult, either.
JLProck - November 22, 2009
Countdown to "You geeks need to get your noses out of the spreadsheets and watch a game and get out of your mothers basement"
in 5…..4…..3……2……
Goose - November 22, 2009
I would if my mom would unlock the door.
She calls my white, pastey skin an assault on the eyes.
JLProck - November 22, 2009
Are you suggesting that a low OBP makes Lopez valuable?
BrianL - November 22, 2009
Or, better yet, are you arguing that Lopez having an OBP north of .350 would have been a bad thing?
Your argument that a high OBP would not have been productive for Lopez is complete bunk. A high OBP is a productive stat no matter what kind of hitter you are, or where in the order you hit.
JLProck - November 22, 2009
Well I tried to be nice but you're obviously not all that bright so whatever
Aaron Campeau - November 22, 2009
No offense, but I don't
see how you can judge someone’s intelligence based on a couple posts. Wasn’t the whole point of Jeff’s post a few days back to discourage this sort of reasoning?
Yes, from this guy’s posts he seems to strongly subscribe to traditional basball thought and has a problem with LL’s UI. I’m sure there were quite a few posters on here that had similar issues when they were new to the site. I know I did.
redwolf75 - November 22, 2009
No
Graham MacAree - November 22, 2009
Years ago I was a complete moron
Jeff Sullivan - November 23, 2009
Years ago?
Trenchtown - November 23, 2009
Some people have grown less idiotic over time.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
Yeah
Robert - November 23, 2009
I still have yet to understand this thought process.
It’s like going to bowling alleys and getting into a discussion about why a someone was unable to hit the 4/10 split. They say something like “the angle of the curve caused a ricochet that rotated the pin at a little too high a velocity, narrowly missing the 10… Next time I’ll have to try arching my hand more” and someone like you responds with something like “You know what you should have done, though, is hit both the pins down! Duh, moron!”
CapSea - November 22, 2009
Except in that scenario the someone like you would actually be right.
abender20 - November 22, 2009
So Jose Lopez has decided to only hit when there's an RBI involved, and most likely for the win.
Brilliant! Coupled with his economical home runs, and efficient strike outs, I don’t see the problem here. Not only is he a 25 WAR player, he’s probably shaving something in the order of 20 minutes off every game. Consider how much the hang time Branyan home runs add to a game, very inefficient.
Kermit. - November 22, 2009
Hmm... I meant on an analysis level.
But that’s an excellent point. I don’t know how to change the example. Maybe "See, what you needed to do right there was place your hand over the fan. Cool hands make the pins go down.
CapSea - November 22, 2009
You've misunderstood the value of OBP
OBP is not about driving in runs, it’s about not getting out and keeping the inning alive while adding runners to the bases. (Note that the probablility of producing an out once on base is much, much lower than while at the plate.) Allow me to illustrate using data collected over literally thousands of baseball games.
If you have a man on second and no outs, on average, your team scores 1.19 runs that inning.
If you have a man on second and one out, on average, your team scores 0.725 runs that inning.
So, getting out with a man on second effectively costs the team .44 runs.
If you have men on second and first and no outs, your team scores 1.57 runs (on average) that inning.
So, walking with a man on second effectively nets you .38 runs.
Notice that the difference between -.44 and .38 is .82 runs. So a walk with a man on second and no outs is worth almost a whole run.
I’m pretty sure I’m talking to a wall right now, but if not, something about the nature of not getting out.
Also, in the AL in 2009, 165 RBIs were accumulated by walking with the bases loaded.
philosofool - November 22, 2009
Hang in there buddy
Poochie - November 22, 2009
Much to learn you still have...
ThundaPC - November 22, 2009
No seriously you are one comment from going away
If you want to learn, fine, whatever. If you want to think you’re right, I don’t the have patience to deal with your ilk.
Graham MacAree - November 22, 2009
Why not test him out at SS?
He might never be an above average fielder at SS but we have so little depth. I know the FO loves Wilson but it just makes me nervous not having any real backup plan or future behind him if something goes wrong.
Edgar for Pres - November 22, 2009
Nick Franklin?
Slurvey - November 22, 2009
Lacks the arm?
Don’t know exactly why not, but presumably he lacks on of the necessary tools for SS, and presumably that would be his arm since he’s had TJ surgery.
philosofool - November 22, 2009
It's hard to play the outfield without a pretty decent arm
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
Randy Winn and Jonny Damon disagree
vj - November 23, 2009
The same Johnny Damon who hasn't been an above average CF since 2002?
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
Jason Bay plays LF ergo it must be okay to play any Canadian in the outfield.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
Johnny Damon has had a pretty good career
If Ackley’s career matches Damon’s he and we should be pleased.
vj - November 23, 2009
I'll be pretty disappointed if Ackley spends most of his career hovering around the league average mark.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
Or if he plays for both the Red Sox and Yankees.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
And Oakland.
HARRYP09 - November 23, 2009
And Kansas City!
killer_ewok18 - November 23, 2009 via mobile
So we should move the right field wall at Safeco in 40 feet and BAM!, Ackley is Johnny Damon!
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
If we moved the left field wall in 20 feet, Jose Lopez would hit 60 dingers a year
abender20 - November 23, 2009
Let
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
's do that!
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
Safeco Field 2
The House that Lopez Built
CapSea - November 23, 2009
You don't even have to take in the whole left wall.
Just take a 10 degree arch and shove it back.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
Arc. I'm now worse than Robert and Poochie combined.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
Who is going to cure us when the doctor is dead?
Robert - November 23, 2009
Not dead, just illiterate.
That hardly matters.
abender20 - November 23, 2009
This is all it would take for Lopez to hit 40 more home runs next year.
I say they do it.
CapSea - November 23, 2009
15 WAR is a possibility!
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
The Pesky Pole is one reason why I hate Fenway Park (the Green Monster being the other).
But hey, if the Red Sox get away with it, I see no reason why we can’t.
Wilder. - November 23, 2009
yeah, but it seems like a different sort of arm
A SS needs to be able to make throws from his knees, while diving away from first base, etc. An OF just needs to have an arm that fires when he’s set.
Of course, a better answer than the one I gave above is simply that he doesn’t have the range for SS. I can’t imagine that it’s very hard to see when a guy lacks the athleticism for SS.
philosofool - November 23, 2009
I'd imagine 2B needs almost as much range as SS
I’d imagine SS mostly just needs a stronger/more accurate arm
Edgar for Pres - November 23, 2009
You don't need quite as much range at 2B
Just because there are fewer balls hit to the right side of the infield than the left
Graham MacAree - November 23, 2009
So its because of the number of oppurtunies
not the inherent skill? Same think with RF/LF and CF right?
Edgar for Pres - November 23, 2009
Then again, SS's don't have 3B that are keeping the runner on third base and leaving just the SS
to cover the entire side of the infield.
Matthew - November 23, 2009
I'd be interested to find out those numbers.
Take the shortstop with the best range in the game, move him to second and see if his defensive value really drops by that much.
CapSea - November 23, 2009
Let's swtich Lopez and Wilson!!!
CapSea - November 23, 2009
Still you're only facing around 25% lefties
So your defensive skills are tested far less often than a shortstops’ are, even if they have the same amount of area on the field to cover.
OlSalty - November 23, 2009
This is why 2Bs and SSs have essentially equal chances, I'd imagine.
marc w - November 23, 2009
This isn't true at all
it all comes down to arm strength and mechanics. A player with good arm strength and mechanics will be able to adapt to play a new position – one without won’t.
seattlebruin - November 23, 2009
Who's signing up for the first shift
of the Bruin Suicide Watch?
pdb - November 24, 2009
He'll be fine for at least a week until the New Moon glow wears off.
Sec 108 - November 24, 2009
This is the worst fucking thing ever
it’ worse than Kristen Stewart’s “acting” in Twilight and Yuniesky Betancourt’s “defense” at SS and when they picked Josh Fields, combined
seattlebruin - November 24, 2009
That's pretty bad.
JY - November 24, 2009
Perhaps you should have hitched your pony to a better player?
Just sayin’
OlSalty - November 24, 2009
Do you rob old people at bus stops, too?
Way to kick a guy when he’s down.
pdb - November 24, 2009
No but I used to spray them with water from my broken windshield wiper that shot water straight sideways
OlSalty - November 24, 2009
Awww, poor little buddy.
I’ll give you a hug in December while chuckling heartily on the inside.
abender20 - November 24, 2009
I'm going to bring you MGD
not even party beer. MGD.
seattlebruin - November 24, 2009
I am going to fill the bottle of Cuvee with Heineken
seattlebruin - November 24, 2009
I thought it was a nice gesture on my part.
abender20 - November 24, 2009
Can't I simultaneously offer a gesture of comfort while also enjoying the bettering of the Mariners?
abender20 - November 24, 2009
BILL HALL AT SECOND MAKES THIS TEAM BLACKER NOT BETTER
seattlebruin - November 24, 2009
Same diff
Robert - November 24, 2009
Who is lazier, Hall or Lopez?
abender20 - November 24, 2009
At least we know Hall won't miss time every year to bury a relative.
Sec 108 - November 24, 2009
Coming here from Milwaukee is more moving than Jose Lopez has ever done.
Matthew - November 24, 2009
Oh honey
royalcurve - November 24, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.