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J.J. Hardy to the Twins

Carlos Gomez is the return. More later.

[Source]

Later: Hardy is a guy that we'd all been hoping that the Mariners would make a play on this offseason to address the shortstop position, so it's a bit of a shame that he's been taken off the table so early and for what appears to be a fairly low price - one we doubtless could have paid. Gomez is a slightly below average centrefielder for league minimum, and the Brewers had top prospect Alcides Escobar waiting in the wings and a hole in CF with the departure of Mike Cameron, but I have a hard time thinking we couldn't have beaten that price.

In terms of money/talent, the deal makes a good amount of sense for both sides. The Twins get a big upgrade at shortstop, the Brewers deal from depth to cover a weak position (albeit not that well) for free, and have some more money to play with in free agency. As the return for a guy like Hardy, Gomez the talent is rather underwhelming, but the financial flexibility he provides is useful. Could/should the Brewers have gotten more for him? Yes. But they didn't, which is where this deal becomes weird from the Milwaukee side. They had an asset which had less value to them than to the rest of the league, but they sold him for his value to them rather than anyone else's, which is not the best trading strategy in the world.

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Comments

This sucks :(

Now we have to overpay an all-glove, no bat SS

It seems teams have jumped early on the trade wagon

Does this mean teams are going to back off the FA market? Maybe the M’s will be able to find some bargains.

Truinfel's not likely to end up at short, is he?
He's pretty much been relegated to maybe second but likely third.
Trusting Z...

…it’s possible Zduriencik didn’t want Hardy for whatever reason.

It's possible that there just wasn't a trade that could be worked out between the teams

It looks like the Brewers were willing to get less talent, but in CF form than they wanted in pitching from us.

Exactly...

Not that he didn’t WANT Hardy per se, but the whole “not wanting him at ‘x’ price” thing comes into play certainly…

Sure. I didn't really want him at the prices I was hearing.

Now if I had a spare Carlos Gomez and the Brewers were willing to bite, it’s a different story.

But it seems like there should have been a middle ground we could reach
Like here?
I'm trying to figure out what that would be (Carrera + Lowe +?)

but what’s done is done, so I guess it doesn’t matter.

Also, just as aside, people talk about Hardy as a former one of the “best young players in baseball” or whatever…. look how far Gomez has fallen. 2.3 WAR player to part-timer to “Well, if Span is ever eaten by wolves…” to trade bait.
And it looks like Gomez was a bit unlucky last year; he might bounce back into the .290-.295 wOBA range, which, now that I look at it, is still deeply shitty.

In terms of talent going back and forth the deal is fine for the Brewers

In terms of what talent they should have been able to get for a guy like Hardy it’s really odd. Seems like they didn’t make the most of their opportunity.

Agreed.

I still just don’t quite know what sort of a ‘middle ground’ the M’s could’ve managed, assuming Morrow is not ‘middle ground.’ Saunders+?

I guess Milwaukee really doesn’t see Lorenzo Cain as a CF.

If they were hell-bent on getting an elite defensive CF out of the deal for cheap, then there's not much we could do
Gutierrez + Morrow + x for Hardy and Fielder!
Well that would be a vomittastic trade
Kinda surprising that they didn't hit up the Red Sox for Ellsbury instead though
The most frustrating part

Is that it’s CARLOS FREAKING GOMEZ.

Carlos Gomez was the prize prospect in the Johan Santana trade.

When you are given a label in baseball, it tends to linger throughout your career.

And when you're only given 157 plate appearances in AAA as a 21-year-old, I imagine it's kind of hard to develop into the stud people think you can be.
Pokey Reese is untouchable!
We got him eventually!
And then broke him permanently because screw you, Cincinatti Reds!
The what Reds?
This is just setting the stage

For a Brandon Morrow+ for Mat Gamel acquisition and shifting Tui over to short….

right? Please?

Our goal is to have a worse defensive shortstop than Yuniesky Betancourt?
Tui to short would be unpleasant
Gamel at 3B and Tui at SS would pretty much be the worst IF in MLB, and I don't care who's at 2b/1b.
Eh, it's still a 15 WAR infield as long as Lopez is there
Of course, I forgot. You can punt D to an extent when your 2B gets 20-25 WAR per year.
Yup

when he’s a +80 2B and hits 65-85 HR/year and only makes $3M, it’s not too hard to win a lot of ballgames

Unless Jack Zduriencik's brain is kidnapped by a hoard of Korean midgets, Tui will never play shortstop in a M's uniform.
Why would Korean midgets want Tui playing at shortstop?
Profit?
They don't. They want GMZ's brain. Sheesh Graham you should be able to follow such things.
Maybe Graham's brain has been kidnapped by Korean midgets
A part of me thinks Tui at SS is the slightly less horrific part of this scenario....
That's on account of Yuni-condiitoning

you’re more accustomed to bad defense at short

Very good point.
I enjoy how, unlike certain teenage posters, Taylor H has developed from prospect to a pretty amusing poster.
I have a back of the rotation ceiling
Well that sucks.
This is a mild disappointment
Isn't Gomez really good in CF at defense?

Or just good?

He's supposed to be a phenomenal defender

A phenomenal defender who’d be a middle-round pick at SoftbaLL

Some captains value defense moreso than others
Really good, according to UZR.

But he can’t hit for shit.

With Fangraphs not working I am helpless
I looked before it crashed.

High UZR marks for Gomez. With the sample size being only a little over a year, Gomez was around +10 at center field, if I’m remembering right.

I just want to look at his hysterical discipline rates
They've improved markedly!
I WANT TO SEE THEM
What do you need? Fangraphs died while I had Gomez page up. I can't see anything but Carlos!
StatCorner shows that even in a year in which he struggled, Hardy posted a 0.1 hWAR to Gomez's -0.7.

Both players also being great defenders (oh how I wish I could get to FanGraphs for more specific UZR data), it seems like a fair trade once contracts are factored in.

Huh.

I sort of had the idea that guys like Gomez were all over the league as fourth outfielders. I mean, does Gomez have anything over Endy Chavez other than two ACLs?

He's a better defender
And is cost controlled.

And is younger

That said

I would much rather have Hardy + freely-available 4th OF than Gomez.

It's really Gomez and Escobar though

You can’t get around that from the Brewer’s perspective. It’s just that they didn’t leverage Hardy nearly as well as they should have.

Sort of what I'm driving at

although there could well be something I don’t know about Hardy’s game, ie some kind of nagging wrist injury thats responsible for the BA decline

I mean, it's what?

A 1 WAR downgrade at short with a 1 WAR upgrade at CF, saving several million dollars in the process? That all balances for Milwaukee.

Okey

but it’s not about breaking even, right? its about getting the most for your buck.

Yeah, it's the opportunity cost that they missed the boat on in my eyes
Yeah they screwed themselves here
Okay, given a choice of Gomez or Chavez I might go Gomez given these considerations

but a choice of Chavez plus Hardy v Gomez? I mean, maybe Chavez wasn’t a

Well Jeff beat me to it
So, Jack Wilson at SS

with 2 years guaranteed +1 year option at $5-6 million per year?

That is my idea.
If he's up for it, that's good. More than $6 mil a year and I don't want any part of him though.
Like 5.5/6 with a $6.5 mil option and a $1 mil buyout seems decent.
Look at the good news

Now we can come up with a new man crush.

Two fun comparisons

Mine: Carlos Gomez isn’t a substantially better return for two years of Hardy than we got for two months of Jarrod Washburn

Dave’s: Gomez is basically Tony Gwynn Jr., who Milwaukee traded for Jody Gerut

So when's the Jack Wilson extension getting announced anyway?
Argh
Jack Wilson is fine calm down
I refuse to be happy or sad until I hear about the size
I am neither happy or sad but it is not arghworthy
Pirates don't say "Meh"
Pirates didn't even want booty for him

they just wanted to Adcock

Please don't try Lorin me into a pun war.
Yeah. I'll be disappointed if it's market price for a guy who's value is entirely tied up in an ability that is supposed to be undervalued,

and really should be declining given his age. If he’s cheaper, woohoo.

Whose, you cretin.
The last time somebody uttered this they were disappointed.
He is rather small.
That's what she said!
It is a beautiful thing that Jack Wilson was the backup plan. I love you, Jack Z.
You don't know this
Let me ask Fogel
No news on the extension front

And now here’s Jeff with the weather

IT'S GON RAIN!
Jeff is white
THERE'S GOING TO BE PRECIPITATION IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
So maybe we should start calling about Reid Brignac?

I can accept Wilson, but I’d really rather not have to.

If I were the Rays I'd be trying to trade Bartlett over Brignac
Wonder how many people are buying Bartlett's crazyass season
He was their MVP the season prior too!
The Rays are stingy trading partners
Well, crap.

Does this mean we pick up Wilson’s option? Or that that was the front offices plan all along considering they didn’t match this offer?

Looking at the how-to-succeed-as-an-aggressive-hitter points from the Lopez post

(1) Gomez has a below-average contact rate

(2) Gomez does run well

(3) Gomez does not really put the ball on the ground

(4) Gomez doesn’t have any power

Carlos Gomez is fucked.

I don't think that Gomez is necessarily fucked

He stands a good chance at being a bad hitter, but if you look at what Torii Hunter was doing at the same age, you might have predicted that Hunter would be fucked. Something like .260/.310/.410 isn’t really out of the question (it’s also not out of line with his minor league performance) and isn’t all that different from what J.J. Hardy has done. Obviously more of a risk since Hardy has already shown he can do it, but he is also under team control for longer and takes up less payroll.

I would assume that the Brewers think that if they instruct Gomez to stop bunting so much, when given a chance to swing away 4 times a day, he might actually improve. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gomez has more power than Delmon Young when everything is said and done, though that is a pretty low bar in and of itself.

.260/.310/.410 is like 20 runs less than Hardy's best season with the bat
Getting traded from Minnesota to Milwaukee, and vice versa, is kind of hilarious

Hopefully Gomez and Hardy didn’t have high hopes for going someplace warm.

Yeah, I'm not terribly happy with this deal.
Jack Z

Drafted Hardy, and like me, probably felt that he greatly outperformed what his abilities were offensively in 07 and 08. Add to it that the ankle injury he had in 2005 or 06 (cant remember) greatly reduced his value as a SS. His range is awful, but his glove is solid and he has a plus arm.

My guess is that he didnt want to part with a guy like Morrow, who has a good upside still, for a guy who may not be as bad as he was this year, but will never be as good as he was in 07-08. He probably felt it was a wash to take on Wilson’s 2 WAR vs Hardy’s.

If you think that UZR is something that tells you that Hardy is some sort of elite SS, it also states that Wilson is above average. Hardy’s D #’s are greatly inflated because of defensive positioning, being at the right place at the right time (a lot), not because he has inflated ability.

The M’s would be better off trying to go out and sign Mat Holliday and get WAR that way and sticking with Wilson, or even signing Hideke Matsui as a DH, than having gone after Hardy. There’s a couple of reason’s he is not now a Mariner: Jack Z knows what he was dealing with, and Doug Melvin greatly overestimated Hardy’s worth.

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