Lookout Landing

No, both of you are missing it.

We were a solid team in 2009, so “going for it” makes sense now. We were not a solid team in 2007 so going for it then made bad sense.

Matthew - December 15, 2009 reply

Your post says we were actually a solid team in 07

Missed the if

Fuck this cold

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2007/10/27/1100/8951#top

We discussed the possibility!

Robert - December 15, 2009 reply

Yeah but honestly the people that ask for you to compare the two are retarded so why should we bother explaining this them?

Robert - December 15, 2009 reply

Any chance we flip Lee for Lillibridge?

Phil Hatzenbuehler - December 15, 2009 reply

As an FYI

Dave Cameron is going to be on with Brock and Salk at 2PM to talk about this.

Some twitter comment mentioned GMZ is on the radio at noon-ish.

I’m currently looking for confirmation on this actually happening.

Salk mentioned that as well.

Chone Figgins is on live right now. Z is introducing him.

Link.

That seems useless at this point

I’m sure he’ll neither confirm nor deny the existence of any trade, let alone elaborate on the players involved

Corco - December 15, 2009 reply

It might be about the Chone Figgins signing, which I should probably stop talking about as it's off topic.

SebastianPruiti - December 15, 2009 reply

We all know how that is going to go:

Mr. Cameron thank you for joining us today, would you like to give your take on the trade?

DC: WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!

Ok would you like to add anything to that?

DC: WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!

mark sobba - December 15, 2009 reply

Any Stream For This Online

For the eastcoasters?

Yep

Link

Not on yet of course.

OlSalty - December 15, 2009 reply

Cool, thanks...

SebastianPruiti - December 15, 2009 reply

Getting dead air right now, that normal?

SebastianPruiti - December 15, 2009 reply

Hmm no, Brock and Salk and Rizzs are all talking right now

Try going to Mynorthwest.com and following the link to 710 espn radio from there

OlSalty - December 15, 2009 reply

So....

What’s next?

tait644 - December 15, 2009 reply

Yeah we want more news

Dewey N - December 15, 2009 reply

CLIFF LEE!!!!!!!!

Snowman1025 - December 15, 2009 via mobile reply

Can we just

killer_ewok18 - December 15, 2009 via mobile reply

Oops

Can we just throw in Morrow? I hate him.

killer_ewok18 - December 15, 2009 via mobile reply

That seems silly.

No

Whoops, reply FAIL

Yes, it does seem silly. No, we can’t throw in Morrow.

Why would you hate Brandon Morrow?

Dewey N - December 15, 2009 reply

You should have left it at "Can we just"

gregrabble - December 15, 2009 reply

Heh.

Fearless Frog - December 15, 2009 reply

This makes lots of sense.

BrettJMiller - December 15, 2009 reply

Why just "throw him in" if we can use him to get something from MIL that we want.

I get much more satisfaction trading things I hate for things I like than just giving them away

We should try that first

Corco - December 15, 2009 reply

The consistent level of optimism about this team feels so foreign but so very, very right.

Torrid - December 15, 2009 reply

Welcome to 1995-2003?

Seriously, it wasn’t THAT long ago that the team was good. Say what you want about Woodward botching some trades (*cough*Slocumb*cough*Timlin*cough), but he was better than Bavasi for sure, and Gillick may be the anti-Billy Beane, but his record’s pretty much untouchable: playoffs everywhere he’s gone, championships in two leagues.

Sure, but there are franchises that get lost in the woods for decades under bad management.

Credit Lincoln and Armstrong for pulling their heads out of their asses and hiring the very best guy to turn it around.

Well...

I was never quite as down on Lincoln/Armstrong as some other folks, as I could recall the Good Old Days, when the equation was competent GM + reasonable payroll + good business management = reasonable chance at contention, year-in, year-out. They just needed people a lot stronger on the baseball side of operations than Bill Bavasi, and they got them in GMZ/Blengino/Tango. This isn’t David Glass or Edward Bennett Williams we’re talking about, who are just hopeless as ownership (note that Gillick was able to make it work with Williams, though, but left in a hurry).

True. We did win 116 games, plus all that other 90's goodness. But to get from 2007 to here is still fucking amazing.

Meh.

If we’re going to give Woody Woodward credit for putting the pieces together for 1995, I think we also have to give him the blame for that team underachieving. I don’t mean NO RINGS because to some extent that’s just luck (especially 2001). 4 playoff appearances in 8 years for a team that at one point had a nucleus of Edgar, Randy, Griffey, A-Rod, and Buhner – 4 HOFers and a very solid player – is really not enough. And a huge part of that were those boneheaded deals.

Underachieving isn't the same as total trainwreck ala Bavasi.

I wasn’t a fan of some of Woodward’s moves, but 1995-1999 was nothing like the Bavasi regime- the team didn’t totally screw the payroll with long-term deals, the bad trades were balanced out by some good ones, and so on.

Do not forget that Lincoln was not involved until 1999 or 2000.

He had zero to do with the teams of the 90’s. Also, Chuck Armstrong was not working for the Mariners until the current ownership bought the team and they hired him to return to the role of club President. He also was not involved in the building of the nucleus of players that drove the teams of the 90’s.

Sec 108 - December 15, 2009 reply

Armstrong was around during the Griffey+Buhner acquisitions, as well as from 1993 on.

I’d say he gets SOME credit for the ’90s teams.

In any event, I don’t think this really makes a difference about my point, which is that I never saw Lincoln/Armstrong as the millstones to success that a lot of other people did. Their problem was that they chose very poorly when it came to a GM for the baseball side of things after Gillick left in 2003, and they’ve fixed that now.

Isn't Armstrong also the one responsible for pissing Randy off to the point of having to trade him?

Yes

Sec 108 - December 15, 2009 reply

Which didn't work out so badly after all...

along with the problem that there was just no way the M’s were going to be able to keep Griffey, A-Rod AND Randy anyway, even with Safeco Field coming online in 1999.

Oh, and you can blame him for Edgar not getting a shot before 1989. I know Armstrong blames himself…

There was the Freddy Garcia situation as well

“The request “was way out of line,” Armstrong said, fuming. “I haven’t attended an arbitration hearing in my 11 years with this ownership, but this one is too important.”"

That was over a difference of $900,000. He and Lincoln seem to have finally learned their lessons and taken a step back from baseball operations. Despite some of the harm he may or may not have done to the roster, he deserves a lot of credit for keeping the team in Seattle.

Also, to whomever said Armstrong was not part of the team until current ownership came to town, that simply is not true. Argyros brought Armstrong in as Team President as one of his initial moves when he bought the team. When Argyros skipped town, Armstrong tried to put together an ownership group to keep the team in Seattle, but Argyros more or less strong armed him out of putting a group together, but claimed it was a conflict of interest. When Smulyan bought the team, Armstrong was fired. Slade Gorton brought him into The Baseball Club of Seattle. With Yamaguchi being the majority owner, MLB insisted that it would be required for the members that would be running the day-to-day operations must be American. That gave Armstrong and Ellis (and later Lincoln) high ranking positions on the Mariners.

edddgar - December 15, 2009 reply

Hindsight is 20/20

There’s no way anyone could know that Edgar was going to become the hitter that he did.

It was pretty obvious Edgar was a better hitter than Jim Presley OR Darnell Coles, though.

I figured that out and bitched and moaned about it in the late 80’s in one of Seattle’s SABR rags at the time, but this was when OBP was state-of-the-art sabremetric analysis.

Dude, Edgar won 2 PCL batting titles before the M's finally gave him a shot.

Maybe they didn’t know how well he’d age, but he had the rep for being the minor league Wade Boggs well before he spent 1989 playing part time and trying to push Presley out.

And after the second time when he proved it wasn't a fluke,

they rightfully gave him playing time. And the rest, as they say, is history.

After the second time,

they called him up but still sat him on the bench for most of the season.

He started the year at 3b

but then hit 240/314/304. That’s an OPS+ of 74. He was hitting worse than Presley was.

Presley's OPS that year was 74 as well

Including a 285 OBP. Also, looking at the lineup data it looks like the M’s were doing some weird platoony thing with Edgar. In any case, he didn’t take well to the playing 5 days at a time and then not for another week and hit .176 for April. From that point forward he hit over .300 although the playing time was scarce.

nathaniel dawson - December 16, 2009 reply

You have your numbers wrong.

Presley’s OPS+ for the year was 82 (not much better, but). After April, Edgar hit .267 the rest of the season.

The M’s played a sort of musical chairs with 3b, 1b, and DH, trying to find the guys who could hit. Edgar split time with Presley at 3b about 40/60.

Probably not the time or place for this, though. I’m sure we’ve taxed their patience enough with re-hashing old stuff.

Well, my window of experience is fairly limited because I didn't even move to Washington until 2002

but I do like getting some context and perspective on the Mariners before I really knew them, so thanks for that. All I can say is it’s been a strange seven years following the M’s.

Torrid - December 15, 2009 reply

.

So, if Fett was to redo his classic spiders gif ...

What would represent the pure awesomeness that would be entering Jack Z’s head? I can’t think of anything fantastic enough to counter the awfulness of AK1984 .

Chris Hafner - December 15, 2009 reply

Einstein, Dave Cameron, Fairies of the Baseball Gods

David Bowie from Labyrinth

royalcurve - December 15, 2009 reply

Any Bowie reference gets a rec from me

Bowie

Bowie’s in space
Bowie’s in space
Whatcha doin’ out there man?
That’s pretty freaky, Bowie.
What’s a rock musician doing out in space man?
Isn’t it cold, quite cold out there Bowie?
Do you need my jumper Bowie?
Does the space cold do funny things to your nipples, making them all pointy?
Bowie.
Do you use your pointy nipples as telescopic antennae transmitting data back to Earth?
Data back to Earth d-d-do, d-d-do, do do
I bet you do you freaky old bastard you

Spoken
Is it lonely out there in space man, or is there life on Mars? Wouldn’t that be weird coz you wrote that song, ‘Is There Life on Mars’. You could write a follow up tune and call it ‘And There Is’

Mmmm, and there is yes there is.
There’s heaps of it and it’s all freaking out at my new look.
Bowie do you have one really funky sequined space suit, Bowie?
Or do you have several ch-ch-ch-ch- changes?
Space changes
Do they smoke grass out there in space man, or do they smoke Astroturf?

Spoken
Receiving transmission from David Bowie’s nipple antennae. Do you read me, Lieutenant Bowie?

This is Bowie to Bowie, do you hear me out there man?
This is Bowie back to Bowie I read you loud and clear, man.
Oooh yeah man!
Your signal is weak on my radar screen. How far out are you man?
I’m pretty far out
That’s pretty far out man
I’m orbiting Pluto!
Drawn in by its grooveatational (grooveatational) pull
I’m jamming out with the Mick Jaggernauts
And they think it’s pretty cool, man.

Are you ok Bowie? What was that sound?
I don’t know man, I’ll have to turn my ship around.
Oh it’s the craziest thing
Yeah, I’m picking it up on my LSD screen.
Oooh, but can you see the stratosphere, ringing?
To the choir of Afronauts singing

Eeniee e ma ma meenie miny moey
Set your phasers on funky
Eeniee ma ma meenie miny moey
Pippew, pipew pipew, pew
Eenie, ma ma meenie minie miny moey
B-b-b-b Bowies in…..

Phil Hatzenbuehler - December 15, 2009 reply

Or you could just post a link to the lyrics.

Wilder. - December 15, 2009 reply

Or maybe just say, "Bowie's in space..."

My bad.

Lesson learned.

This was necessary

abender20 - December 15, 2009 reply

Clap off

abender20 - December 15, 2009 reply

Never heard that.

Most creative insult ever!

Please don't do this

Matthew - December 15, 2009 reply

I don't suppose

there’s a way to edit that down to something smaller now…

Phil Hatzenbuehler - December 15, 2009 reply

The irony is the decision that let to that gif (Aumont to relief) is now completely irrelevant to us!

Hooray!

cwel87 - December 15, 2009 reply

I wonder how Tony Blengino reacts when seeing stuff like this?

ThundaPC - December 15, 2009 reply

Do you think he actually reads the comment threads?

If he's familiar with Lookout Landing.

One has to wonder…

ThundaPC - December 15, 2009 reply

I'm sure he has a peek to see what recommendations I am making for him to copy.

EnglishMariner - December 15, 2009 reply

Instead of spiders, miniature Tony Blenginos jumping into his head.

Not sure if someone posted this in a different thread

but apparently this is now a 4-team trade with Oakland being that 4th team.

Link

Kyle Rancourt - December 15, 2009 reply

I think that's more it's own deal after our companion trades deal with Philly and Toronto.

BrettJMiller - December 15, 2009 reply

Billy Beane is gonna be scavenging from Jack Z's deals from now on.

Is this one of those trades that needs to be approved by Selig?

Coach Owens - December 15, 2009 reply

I've always wondered what constitutes a trade that needs to be approved by Selig...

shumagorath - December 15, 2009 reply

Lots of cash and players with big contracts, I believe

Coach Owens - December 15, 2009 reply

Some outlet yesterday mentioned that Halladay signing an extension in the middle of this required the Selig 72 hr. approval.

“It’s Jack Zduriencik’s world and all other GMs are just living in it.”

I would think the cash changing hands from Toronto to Philly means that it is.

drblacknwhite - December 15, 2009 reply

This works, I think.

While I still like the trade

I do not have Morrow and even more so, Triunfel, as high as most of the people here at LL do.

Morrow is going to be 25 next season and has not really put any strong numbers up over a significant sample size in his pro-career. Furthermore, being jerked around by the F.O. and himself from starting to relieving has really stagnated his development. He has great stuff still, which helps him keep his high potential. However, he still struggles significantly with control of his fastball and slider. Furthermore, unless I missed something, his change has not really developed further. This combined with the problems created by his concerns over his diabetes and lack of development make me severely doubt he will become even an average starter. As a reliever he has a better chance, but his control is still not where you would want it to be, and this role brings much less value to the team.

Triunfel has not really done much to impress in terms of hitting. He is overly aggressive at the plate, reducing his OBP. Furthermore, while he has plenty of tools he has yet to show significant results. ARL is overstated in prospect circles sometimes, I think. Really, Gillies is only a year older and has shown great results in the same environment Triunfel was last year. Gillies of course does not project as well as Triunfel, but it is not a stretch to say he is more advanced right now. Also, he will likely play better defense at a more valuable position than Triunfel.

Most of the people here aren't really that high on Morrow either and would rather we trade him

But he’s a more valuable trade piece than Aumont or Gillies.

OlSalty - December 15, 2009 reply

Bingo

Jeff Sullivan - December 15, 2009 reply

Yup.

I’m fine with trading him. But he’s not a throw-in.

Teej - December 15, 2009 reply

How did he get to Jeff Clement status so quickly? Was that start against the Yankees so long ago?

Do we have so much faith in Snell?

The constant shuffling between the bullpen and the rotation hurt his status.

His stock with the organization may never have recovered from Hargrove and Bavasi fucking with his development.

Honestly I was really pissed off about the diabetes/closer thing last spring

And Lincecum doesn’t help anything either.

One start doesn't make a career.

Don Larsen had a freakin’ perfect game in the World Series, and was a journeyman pitcher outside of that- a couple of good years ala Paul Abbott when he was carried by the Yankee offense and defense, but that was about it.

I'm not saying it established his career

I’m just comparing our collective feelings about him then to the seemingly consensus ‘trade trade trade’ I’m seeing now. And I don’t disagree, just taking a step back for a moment.

Well...

Loafie’s been in “trade trade trade” mode for years now, along with the intermittent “WORST PLAYER EVAR” when he has his occasional months where a relative dies and he stops hitting, and he’s a league-average player at 2B with decent return for the salary outlay.

Familiarity breeds contempt, I guess, especially when you think the player should be so much better than they are.

Yeah I won't disagree with you there

Aumont and Gillies are both less valuable. But I would not shed tears over his loss either. I would love for him to work out for us.

Triunfel has shown awesome results at the plate

he hit .300 in A+ ball at age 18. 18!

Triunfel’s status has always come from his age, and in the latter stages of 2008 and early 2009 he was beginning to show the long promised power we had hoped he would develop. If he sticks at short, he’s a heck of a prospect.

Triunfel is not supposed to stick at SS

In most prospect circles I hear of him as a 3B or 2B, possibly even corner outfielder now. Also, that .300 + average accounted for a cut even wOBA of .338 in the best hitter’s park in the league. He just does not walk and if you reduce his BB % and increase his K % for AA adjustments with pitchers that have control, you get numbers close to what Jose Lopez puts up.

I should say extreme hitter's park, Lancaster is probably worse

18. A+ ball.

ARL is not everything

Yusmeiro Petit dominated AA as a 20 year old. Where is he now. Triunfel is extremely talented and was very polished for international signee, which allowed him to make good contact in the lower minors. However, his batting line is extemely empty, evidenced by his unimpressive wOBAs.

Jose Lopez is not an impressive MLB hitter, just league average. He and Triunfel share similar skill sets, except Lopez is a mile more polished and everything broke right for him.

Andy Marte is another example of a failed ARL wonder

Using small sample size examples isn't going to convince me of this

most 18 year olds aren’t ready for the Cal League. Some are. Some do well. Some of those that do well turn out to be great major leaguers. Some of those that do well turn out to be shitty major leaguers. I’d always rather have a guy who has been successful against much older competition than unsuccessful.

With Triunfel, batting average may be an empty stat at the big league level, but it shows an ability to square up a pitch and hit it soundly, which is one of the thing that you simply need to be physically gifted to do, and Triunfel has shown that.

I am not saying that there is no value in Triunfel

but he has to show some results at some point. He has been signed now for three years and has shown no power outside of an extreme hitter’s park in the two years he has been healthy. Furthermore, he has not improved on taking walks since he first started in the minors. These are two key areas a hitter draws value from which Triunfel has not progressed in yet. I think there are more polished players in this system with higher or equal potential as Triunfel, which is why I do not rate him as highly.

Gillies has shown results, even when you regress his BABIP for this year. He can also take a walk and has excellent speed. He was 20 in the Cal League, which is also young relative to the league average. His most likely outcome is a 4th outfielder, but his floor looks way higher than Triunfel’s right now.

Basically, Triunfel = Loafie but hasn't shown as much power consistently yet.

The BA and OBP are nearly identical, and Lopez started out at SS before being moved off to 2B in the majors. Neither player walks much or Ks much.

Exactly, very similar skill set

Triunfel is just not at the same level as Lopez was when he was Triunfel’s age. The injury really hurt his development curve but maybe he can come back and learn to walk.

Well...

Loafie still doesn’t compare all THAT badly to, say, Miguel Tejada at comparable ages, and I think Bavasi’s “push them until there’s massive FAIL” philosophy might have hosed his development (plus he sort of had some outside issues that impacted that), so I still think Triunfel might turn out kind of interesting. I’ll want to see where his 2010 is. If he starts blowing away AA/AAA pitching, that’s a good sign.

I really hope he develops but I am worried more than most

I seem to remember there were reports coming out of the AZFL that he looked out of shape, but this is just coming from my memory. Also, Sickels had some scouts questioning his work ethic in his prospect book.

Personally, I would like him to get his feet wet again in High Desert, than see what he can do in AA. Last thing I want the Ms to do is mess with more prospects by rushing them, especially one as physically talented as Triunfel.

I wouldn't object to that.

I think he probably needs to show he’s better than A+/AA to really start being a hot hot prospect again. Otherwise he’s Tui, I think.

Agreed that he needs to show more patience at the plate, but the talent level

and that he was starting to find power are both very encouraging

Yeah I won't argue that

I just really think he does not belong in the top 5. Probably, on the back end of the top 10. I would put Ramirez, Aumont, Proythress, Ackley, Saunders, Moore, Gillies, Pineda, and possibly Morban or DeJesus in front of him at this point.

Speaking of Morban, he really impressed me.

His offensive potential is something to dream of

Next year is going to be a big test for him whether in Everett, Pulaski, or Clinton.

Yes, Morban

He’ll be one of the more exciting prospects to watch next year.

DeJesus?

Jharmidy “can’t play third base anymore and just hit .249/.340/.385 in Pulaski after hitting better than that in Everett the year prior” DeJesus?

I’ve soured on him a bit, personally.

Didn't DeJesus come into the system as a shortstop too?

or was he a “shortstop?”

He was a "shortstop", as was Mario Martinez

though not to the same degree.

The only non-quotes shortstop we’ve picked up that was a big signing in recent memory was Gabriel Noriega, unless you want to count Triunfel.

I'll take that back

I had no idea DeJesus had that bad of a year. In my memory the numbers were always better than that. I am not surprised that he is likely to move off 3B, but his bat was supposed to be very good and he actually walked a little even. Him and Martinez really dissapointed this year.

Martinez had a bit of a late surge in Everett though.

Nothing extraordinary, mind you, but he gets good marks on work ethic, defense, and being a good teammate. I think he has a better chance than de Jesus does, all things considered.

I also hold more hope for Martinez than DeJesus

However, his K/BB rate was essentially the same in Everett. This is something I see as key when looking at the development of prospects in the low minors and in Martinez’s case, the lack of progress is worrying. I think he can do better with a second go around, much like Halman did. He always seems to get good reviews from the organisation. If only one out of Martinez, DeJesus, Norriega, Valvidia, and Triunfel, can work out, we have something special.

Poythress, really?

They say he’s got tremendous power potential, but we’ve seen so little of him that it’s hard to have enough confidence in him to put him in the top ten.

He's in there for me.

Not many others you can put after this trade.

Wellllll...

Go look at Adrian Beltre in the minors at 18. I’d have to call AB considerably ahead of Triunfel as a hitter at a similar age, considering he MADE a MLB team at 19, and was a solid performer by age 20, and flashed power all through his minor league career that Triunfel has never really shown yet.

And Adrian Beltre is an athletic freak of nature

You may have noticed that he's kind of good

Yes, but my point is AB is much closer to awesome than Triunfel is.

That’s what I expect to see when I see a prospect blowing a league away at a young age. Triunfel’s young for his league, but he’s not blowing it away.

FWIW, Jose Lopez outhit Triunfel in the same league by quite a lot (with similar hitter’s ballparks inflating the stats) at a similar age- .324/.360/.464. Now, maybe Triunfel outdevelops Loafie going forward, but especially with him missing his age 19 year, you’d have to say he’s behind Lopez at this point in their respective careers- and Loafie clearly wasn’t ready for the majors by age 20/21, even though he hit pretty well in Tacoma (+.850 OPS those half-years there).

Milwaukee seem very interested in Morrow so I'm happy we stilll have him.

It’s way too early to give up on Triunfel, sure the year missed is a concern but he’s still young for the league.

Eyeball Kid - December 15, 2009 reply

Gamel for Morrow intrigues me.

Or would it be Morrow+?

seattlesundevil - December 15, 2009 reply

Morrow, Lopez, prospect for Weeks, Gamel?

I guess it all depends on how much the Brewers think of Morrow…

They really like him.

At least Bob Melvin does.

seattlesundevil - December 15, 2009 reply

If this happened I'd probably die

Weeks is awesome.

tait644 - December 15, 2009 reply

VERY much so!

Time to test out how much Milwaukee likes Morrow..

Whatever the names, seems theres a deal to be had there as the Brewers are still loaded with hitting talent and need to solidify their rotation

but I don’t know if Morrow has established himself nearly enough as a starter to be that guy. We’ve certainly got a few guys with upside…

Morrow + something for Fielder would be lovely

That is if we can afford the salary. Let see if we can fool the smarter Melvin.

I don't think we're getting Fielder.

If we do however I will flip shit.

Kirk - December 15, 2009 reply

Ditto

Fielder would be a phenominal player

but I would almost prefer less value in Gamel just so I can finally root for a player for 6 years. Assuming he turns out to be any good with the bat.

CapSea - December 15, 2009 reply

One thing that hasn't been discussed at all, and maybe its a non-issue

but Lee pitched 270 innings last year. That’s a shitload of work, and while he showed no sign of attrition in October its somewhat worrying. Have there been any studies on pitcher performance/injury risk following such a huge uptick in workload?

Probably, but injury prediction is more alchemy than science.

Predicting specific injury based on mechanics is alchemy

but trends in decreased velo/K rate/IP are easily subjected to stats analysis. Just wondering if there’s something out there on the subject I’m not aware of.

It is something to be aware of but not a deal-breaker

Jeff Sullivan - December 15, 2009 reply

Also, more than likely we're only going to have him for one year

and I’d be more worried down the road as he ages as well

Oh heavens no I'm still stoked about the trade

just wondering about what can be reasonably expected of him. Certainly not what he did last year.

Lee doesn't exactly qualify

because he’s over 25, but Larry Stone did an article on this with relation to Felix.
Felix Hernandez and “The Verducci Effect”

margin1522 - December 15, 2009 reply

Does Lee really hate Philly or something?

I can’t figure out why they don’t just keep Lee for the year.

Guarantees they have a top-flight pitcher past 2010

sure it’s kind of stupid, but it does provide them some additional stability, so understandable, I guess

no, what I'm saying is

why do they have to trade Lee to get Halliday? Why can’t they have both? Perhaps I don’t understand the mechanics of the deal. Is Seattle giving something up to Toronto?

This is a companion trade setup.

The Jays send Halladay and cash to Philly in exchange for prospects then the Jays turn around and send us Lee in exchange for our prospects.

Philly wanted to get some prospects back

And maybe they liked those prospects better than two draft picks.

tait644 - December 15, 2009 reply

Prospects vs. World Series

Basically the difference is Lee’s salary and mid-level vs. low-level prospects. They keep Lee they pay his salary and take two draft picks when he walks. They make the M’s deal they get prospects potentially nearer the majors, and one more prospect than if Lee walks.

If they keep Lee they’re the favorites to win the WS as of this moment. That might sell some tickets, partially defraying the cost of keeping Lee.

I just don’t think this is a cut-and-dried decision for Philly at this point.

Philly doesn't have the payroll for both

No we aren't

And so there’s a non-trivial chance (IMO) that Philly might decide to keep Lee. Or that they will go ahead and shop him around a bit before dealing him, raising the price. Also, the only reason Philly appears to need to deal Lee is reduce salary. They may find another way of doing that.

As soon as this went from 3-way deal to “companion” deals, I became nervous.

yeah

I mean, at only $8 million, why the hell would Philly not keep both? You’ll make that up with World Series gate.

Long term they couldn't have both

So, they flip Lee for prospects after sending prospects for Doc. Sell Lee while his value is high

Yeah, or you can win a world series

when you have a chance to win a world series, you do it.

Flipping Lee for Doc, essentially, doesn't kill their WS chances at all

but you don't have to flip

you don’t get it. You have Halladay without Lee. Why not keep both and get a ring? Its irrelevant if you lose Lee after this year.

2 reasons I see

1) They don’t want to lock up 25 mil in payroll for the two this year
2) They don’t want to have Lee walk for only compensatory picks, which would have happened

Instead, they are compensated with 3 picks for a player they know wouldn’t have been around next year while increasing their chances at a WS and freeing up payroll to continue making moves.

3 players from us, I mean

I do agree with you, though

I just think it was Philly’s philosophy to dump Lee once they got their man because they knew they had 0 chance of locking Lee up and his value was at it’s highest right now. Since they were able to extend Halliday for 3 years, they have a long term ace and were free to flip Lee for prospects to replenish the farm and fill needs immediately

The sticking point for the Phillies in the Halladay trade was having to give up too high a price in prospects.

If they get prospects from Seattle, they can offer more to Toronto because they are replacing those lost prospects.

Why not take the two draft picks

Plus WS rings all around?

So it comes down to money, and if they can either:

A) Dump Blanton on somebody (or otherwise reduce salary)

OR

B) Find a team willing to give up more for Lee than the M’s

…we are SOL.

How are we SOL?

In terms of getting Lee

We are otherwise still cool. But sadder. Except with Chone, who is cool. And we still have Guti and Ichiro and Felix.

The Lee deal is all but announced, I don't see how we're screwed here....

From all indications we're just waiting on physicals now.

Yep

The major sticking point was Halladay signing an extension, which was resolved this morning. As long as everyone passes their physicals and Selig signs off, this thing is done

According to Stark

The status of the other portions of a companion deal that would include the Seattle Mariners, however, is still uncertain at this point.

As of 12:43 PST

Is another source more confident in the Lee deal?

That's ESPN

not just Jayson Stark…

seattlesundevil - December 15, 2009 reply

They just don't know if it is Ramirez or someone else

Relax. The deal is done.

Yes

They have a deal in place, they know Lee is coming to Seattle, and they think the three mentioned are going to Philly. The uncertainty is who we’re sending

Cool

I hope all my kvetching is for naught.

It'll work

Halladay took his physical this morning and that was the last remaining piece. Deal has been expected to go through tomorrow since the speculation started.