Lookout Landing

Seems a bit optomistic for Gutz

And low for Ichiro!

Okay

Ichiro: Projection systems don’t like Ichiro. Matthew used projections.
Guti: Was 6 WAR last year and, while he should not be expected to hold down that level of defense, he is going into his age 27 season which gives him the most optimistic wOBA projections he will ever have at a premium position.

CapSea - December 16, 2009 reply

I like the total, but would switch the players.

I am mostly curious.

I'm guessing defense has something to do with it...

Scrupio - December 16, 2009 reply

Figgins seems a little low to me but it's hard to quibble about individual projections when the overall picture seems right

Sure, the overall picture is way better than what I know and I appreciate the effort.

Just curious.

nathaniel dawson - December 16, 2009 reply

I'd say the same thing

Depending on how much playing time you project for full-timers, he would get about 2.5 wins just for playing third base. His baserunning is easily worth a half a win, so you’d have to assume he’s just average offensively and defensively to come out at 3 WAR.

Minor point, and I understand the reasoning for not including baserunning. It’s nice to get a closer look at how we stack up.

You shouldn't assume he'll play ~150 games

You have to factor in injury risk also.

nathaniel dawson - December 16, 2009 reply

Did you notice what I did there?

I included the phrase “Depending on how much playing time you project for full-timers”.

That doesn't excuse this part of your sentence

so you’d have to assume he’s just average offensively and defensively to come out at 3 WAR.

No, you are assuming that Matthew is projecting him to 150+ games, which is not the case.

I do appreciate the snark though.

nathaniel dawson - December 17, 2009 reply

I'm not assuming anything about how many games he's projecting

which is why I included the phrase “Depending on how much playing time you project for full-timers”.

Got it?

Wow.

JLProck - December 17, 2009 reply

Hey - did ya hear?

That’s what Rob Johnson said when he heard the M’s landed Lee!

PositivePaul - December 17, 2009 reply

Gutierrez has averaged 4.5 WAR the last 2 seasons (proj to full playing time)

knock him down to 4 for defensive regression. It basically assume a +5 hitter and a +10 fielder.

Ichiro I was just overly pessimistic on. He should be 4 WAR.

Also, these don’t really include baserunning, so Ichiro, Guti and Figgins might net us another WAR that route.

After looking it over, I'm bumping Ichiro up to 4.

Why wouldn't you include baserunning?

Because that's more work than I want to do and it doesn't change the picture much at all.

Ok, that makes sense.

By the way is there ever going to be a tRA projection system based on multiple years with regressed components?

I don't know

So it's in the long-term plans or is it just not even on your radar?

tRA is the coolest thing to happen to pitcher evaluation since the first DIPS, and it seems like a projection system would be the next logical step. I find it hard to project tRA as I’m not familiar with how the components regress, etc… Just think it would be cool.

I don't think the marginal value of it would be very significant

I work more than full time

plus have about 4 to 5 writing commitments at any one time during the calendar year, plus upkeep on StatCorner. Plus trying to have a life.

I’m not pity-diving, just trying to give you an idea that I honestly don’t know if it’ll ever come.

I tackle things when my interest and availability converge. I imagine something will come eventually, but I just don’t know. Among things I want to do aside from that include overhauling tRA (partly done already), developing better park effects for minor leagues, developing a PrOPS version of wOBA, investigating catcher framing from a pitch f/x view and about five others.

Just use tRA* for projections. That’s basically why it exists.

Alright, just cool to know the state of it.

I love tRA* but I know it’s just a year-to-year thing and since we have multiple years of information, using those instead of regressing to a league-average mean would be cool…

But some of the other stuff you’re working on sounds more interesting, so keep up the good work. I love your sabermetric work and writing as well, you’re truly in the league of great sabermatricians moving the ball forward.

tRA* is regressed tRA, which is already half the work of a projection

Just take a 5-4-3 weighted by batters faced average of tRA* to get a projection. I would also add some form of aging.

Catcher framing?

Nice!

Kermit. - December 16, 2009 reply

Don't get too excited.

Seriously, these are all in an indefinite holding pattern.

It sounds like this needs to be you full time job.

Now, how to pay you what you make in your full time job…

Sinking Away - December 16, 2009 reply

*your

Sinking Away - December 16, 2009 reply

Interesting project, it's just nice to know it's even on the radar.

Kermit. - December 16, 2009 reply

Whatever

you and Graham’s work have given so much to us already that the mere mention of your next idea is plenty to get excited about, in all honesty

seattlebruin - December 17, 2009 reply

Kermit got excited because "Catcher framing" means something very

different to him than it does to you.

Sec 108 - December 17, 2009 reply

I thought I heard someone behind me.

Kermit. - December 17, 2009 reply

Matthew is not an AI that requires no rest and doesn't have a life outside of LL, and StatCorner, and Fangraphs and working...

Holy crap how does he do it? Or is he a robot…

Slurvey - December 16, 2009 reply

Ever?

Thanks for the reasoning.

Furthermore

if Franklin had received full playing time (I’m comfortable extending the numbers because he wasn’t missing time with injury), his 5/4/3 average for 2007-9 is 4.5 WAR. He’s been good for awhile.

Seems fair

We’re lucky to have so much flexibility this offseason compared to Texas and Anaheim who are both facing payroll restrictions. I think we are going to improve more than they are with the moves that are still to come.

So does anyone have any idea how much financial flexibility the other clubs have?

We could take all the $ left that the teams have for FA, divide it by 4.5, and add it to the current total and have a better understanding of where all teams stand. Of course, this doesn’t account for trades happening instead of FA signings, etc, but would be pretty cool.

ManifestDestiny - December 16, 2009 reply

If the Rangers purchase goes through

Then they have ~$5mil left. The Angels probably have ~$10mil after losing Lackey and Figgins. Oakland….no idea.

They just signed Matsui for 6 mil, they don't have that much.

Texas doesn't really have any left due to their ownership issues

Anaheim has like not very much since the Matui signing, maybe 3m, unless they decide to increase payroll.

ManifestDestiny - December 16, 2009 reply

So if the Angels do somehow manage to get Lowe

That’s an increase in 3 wins, from 1 in Palmer to 4 in Lowe.

Although if they give up Rivera and have to use Gary Matthews Jr in the OF consistently, then it’s basically a wash

Derek Lowe is not likely a 4 WAR pitcher in the AL for 2010

3 is a much better estimate.

We come out close to 84 wins even with Hanners starting at 1st and Carp DHing.

That’s freaking amazing.

Offseason with GMZ is so fun.

Slurvey - December 16, 2009 reply

Yeah, I don't think Carp is a 1-win DH right now

Me either, but you had Johnson as a 1-win C so I guess there's some room for debate on half-wins.

Catchers get a crazy position adjustment

Yeah Johnson sucks but his positional adjustment makes up for it.

I assume in the next edition you'll at least make an effort to include Rob Johnson's rapport with pitchers (2.5-3 WAR boost?)

Other than that, nice job.

gregrabble - December 16, 2009 reply

This is a joke yes?

ToddK - December 17, 2009 reply

No Griffin really buys into the idea of team chemistry factoring into a player's WAR

We usually add 0.2 WAR for every smile, laugh, or ticklefight induced by the player

.Taylor - December 17, 2009 reply

Well now I have the image you two jumping up and down on a bed having a pillow fight.

While Vegas style slot machine noises ring out as the WAR racks up. I hate my brain.

Kermit. - December 17, 2009 reply

Only the manliest of men have gleeful pillow fights

.Taylor - December 17, 2009 reply

ugh when will you mariners fans learn

remember the LAST time you got some “big postseason” pitcher? this is just Jeff Weaver part two!!! HAHAHAHAHA suckers

.Taylor - December 16, 2009 reply

I thought Texas would be higher too.

So you're saying the Mariners are definitely going to win the World Series in 2010.

Got it.

Eyebrows - December 16, 2009 reply

The way the offseason has gone, Reagins would ask for Felix and Ichiro in exchange for Napoli...

tait644 - December 16, 2009 reply

Okies!

royalcurve - December 17, 2009 reply

Only a 25-run defensive adjustment

Why don't we just move Jsoe Lopez to catcher

he’d have a plus bat there

Poochie - December 16, 2009 reply

And plus no balls would ever get past him on account of he's so fat and unsightly

Edgar for Pres - December 16, 2009 reply

You always put the fat, ugly kid behind the plate.

His mass blocks more balls and his ugliness is hid by the mask for half the game.

hcoguy - December 16, 2009 reply

m pretty sure this is my entire point

Poochie - December 16, 2009 reply

God I hate Jose Lopez

Poochie - December 16, 2009 reply

If we pay him like 100M or so it only seems fair he should have to be catcher

Wak to Snell and Morrow: “Look, you have to throw strikes. Throw stuff in the dirt or way off the plate and he’s probably going to miss it.” They’ll learn.

Gihyou - December 16, 2009 reply

The A's project to be pretty bad

But when I look at their team, most of those players look like they have a fair amount of upside.

Unfortunately the same can be said with Texas.

CapSea - December 17, 2009 reply

It sounds stupid but Oakland has a bad but interesting team

Texas is pretty close to being good. Its kinda scary to have 3 teams who all project to be 80-85 wins.

Edgar for Pres - December 17, 2009 reply

Texas scare me more than any other team, mainly because I believe Feliz and Holland are both going to break out in a big way in 2010.

EnglishMariner - December 17, 2009 reply

And then Martin Perez the year after. :(

Thanks for putting this up Matthew.

I like how close all four teams are to each other. This should make for an interesting season.

Sec 108 - December 17, 2009 reply

Agreed!

On both points: excellent work Matthew and it’s interesting how close all 4 teams are. Let’s hope for an exciting pennant race, and that the M’s manage to come out on top. :)

urchman - December 17, 2009 reply

This is amazing. Thanks for the work.

Mathew, I’m not sure that you care, but when I view this in Chrome the formating is all kinds of messed up.

InSpokane - December 17, 2009 reply

The Angels are left in an interesting position...

in that they don’t have any obvious upgrades to make now that the top rung of starters have been taken off the market. The Mariner’s on the other hand have obvious replacements at first base, catcher, and DH. Knowing that we’re this close just makes that feel good fest that was the last game of the season feel that much more special, it really is something else to feel this much optimism and pride about the Mariner’s again.

Awesome write up Matt, thanks.

Eldukey - December 17, 2009 reply

I could be way off here

but it seems like you’re being more conservative with your Mariner projections than with the others, and it still comes out looking like a three horse race.

One thing I notice right away is that the only positions where the Angels can significantly improve are closer and 5th starter, and they shouldn’t be able to add much more than a coupe wins there. The Mariners however, can reasonably add something like 4-6 wins with fairly low-profile moves to fill 1B, DH, C, and 4th starter (and that’s with neither Morrow or Snell making any progress over the winter).

Also, you’re projecting our pen to pretty much suck balls. Last year’s crappy pen was worth 3 wins, and while Aardsma will likely regress a bit, you might expect some progress from other holdovers or addition of talent from the minors etc. What is your thinking behind that number? Not quibbling over one win here, just curious.

Part regression, part less opportunity.

Lee and a full-ish season from RRS should cut down the number of innings that goes to backup starters and various relievers.

Matthew - December 17, 2009 reply

Rangers

That they’re as close as they are with a big fat 0 from the 1B slot scares me. I’d consider putting in a 1 for Smoak/others combo… I’m assuming they’re factored into the bench’s 1 WAR, but… I’m just worried. They could move an OF to 1B and put Borbon in the OF, which would help their defense, or they could just play Smoak out of spring training and help their 1B runs directly (Bill James projection on him is way above average; cut it down quite a bit and he’s still a 1.5-2 WAR player potentially). You were kind to their pitchers, so it may just all work out.

Well we are also where we are with crap 1B and DH

Jeff Sullivan - December 17, 2009 reply

And C

Being worth half a win at C is like getting a D in gym class. Christ.

Brayan Pena was worth .5 wins over ~160PA at catcher last year.

GOD. The Royals’ backup is as valuabe as our starter. Landon fucking Powell was worth more over 140 PA.

eponymous_coward - December 17, 2009 reply

But Rob Johnson's CERA was so good!

I bet it stays as good this year when he’s catching Felix’s AND Lee’s starts.

Yes, but I'd argue that Smoak is a better hitter right now than either Hannahan or Carp.

Good for both of us?

eponymous_coward - December 17, 2009 reply

Wow, the A's hitters are terrible.

And I don’t see a ton of upside there either, but that’s just me.

I like that our projections, as of right now, still offer a lot of easy places to make upgrades.

Jeff Nye - December 17, 2009 reply

I feel like this was the most surprising part.

Before looking at the player individually, I felt like the Rangers, M’s and Angels would be close, that the A’s would have good pitching, but I wasn’t sure about their hitting.

GhettoBear04 - December 17, 2009 reply

Isn't this pretty much the case every year now?

Ever since Eric Chavez’s back went into the toilet, they’ve been some variation of bad.

I still have no idea how Daric Barton turned out this bad.

At least the A’s have a Jeremy Reed too….

Billy Beane has already thrown in the towel on the 2010 season if I'm not mistaken.

ThundaPC - December 17, 2009 reply

For future referrence on the A's...

I’m guessing you’ll do something like this again as the offseason draws to a close, so when you do you might want to consider that Outman is out until at least mid-season as he recovers from TJS.

grover - December 17, 2009 reply

Outman, Eveland, Cahill, ...

I’m not sure there’s much difference between the three. It’s more just penciling in the wins for the slot then for a particular person, but I will modify it. Thank you.

Matthew - December 17, 2009 reply

Also, LF should be Hairston, and I think Taylor/Patterson/Cunningham will all see more time than Buck...

the projections for the A’s look very good to me. I think Barton should be higher but that’s about the extent of my disagreement.

mikeA - December 17, 2009 reply

That's who I had originally and then I changed it because, really,

they’re going to start Hairston in left field?

Matthew - December 17, 2009 reply

Just FYI on the Rangers.

They’ve gone ahead an announced that the starting OF next year is going to be Hamilton-Borbon-Cruz. The assumption is that Murphy will the 4th OF and part-time DH with Mike Lowell looking like the most likely option to pick up the other ABs at DH. As a Rangers fan, I’m more than a bit disappointed that Lowell will be the primary DH and backup 1B/3B. This is theoretically the first season that the Rangers were projecting themselves to contend and thus, raise payroll from the ridiculously low levels that they’re at now. Alas, such is the ‘luck’ of Rangers fans, who get to deal with ownership transition all offseason and what seems to be a payroll freeze for all intents and purposes.

The thing that makes the Rangers more interesting than past years is that they have more than flaming piles of crap as backup starting pitchers, both in AAA and possibly as long men in the bullpen. The starting rotation may not get as close to its upside as most Rangers fans are hoping for (or what they will need to win the division), but hopefully they can mitigate the lower end of the variance with the number of near-league average starting pitchers in the minors.

GhettoBear04 - December 17, 2009 reply

Visualizing Need

I put together a chart that attempts to highlight need at each position. Filled boxes under M indicate players whose projected WAR is below the mean for their position. Filled boxes under – or + indicate players who are below or above one standard deviation from the mean for their position respectively.

HopHead - December 17, 2009 reply

This takes a second to understand, but it's kind of awesome

seattlebruin - December 17, 2009 reply

Are the mean and standard deviation based on these four samples for each position?

Mariner John - December 17, 2009 reply

Yeah, not much of a sample size...

It would undoubtedly be better to get projections for the entire league.

HopHead - December 17, 2009 reply

Or you could take ~2 as average

since that’s sort of the theoretical value.

Nice, by the way.

nathaniel dawson - December 17, 2009 reply

I don't like this chart system

It makes Texas look better than us. Make us up a chart that has us winning the ALWest.

As soon as Z is finished building the team this off-season, somebody probably will.

ToddK - December 17, 2009 reply

Just realized

the Angels are pretty much finished being the Angels. Especially if they end up going with Wood over Izturis. We are so much more the Angels than the Angels are.

Jeff Sullivan - December 17, 2009 reply

Ayup

It’s just one position, but think of what going from Figgins to Wood does… it’s not an issue of WAR at all, it’s just a total inversion of what the team used to be. It’s swapping out Ichiro for Wlad. Okay, not quite, but y’know.