Carlos Silva, A Recap

by Matthew on Dec 23, 2009 9:00 AM PST in Seattle Mariners Stats

Just as a reminder, this guy is no longer part of our team!

Carlos Silva faced 821 batters as a Mariner. He, and his defense, and his park, managed to retire 546 of those, resulting in 182 innings pitched. For reference, that's just 18 more innings, nine per year, than Erik Bedard pitched while a Mariner. It's also 57 fewer innings than Felix Hernandez pitched. Last year alone.

79 strikeouts. That's 3.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, or put better, 9.6% of all batters faced. Among Major League starting pitches expected to toss at least 100 innings in 2009, a 9.6% strikeout rate would have been the second worst in all of baseball, a smidgen ahead of Jeremy Sowers. In 2008 it would have been third worst ahead of only Livan Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick.

While the league average swinging strike rate for starting pitchers hovers just below 8%, Carlos Silva had a combined 4.7% rate. That would have ranked fourth worst in 2008 and dead last in 2009.

41 walks combined between 2008 and 2009. That's 2.0 per nine, or 5.0% of batters faced. Due credit, that would have ranked 16th best in 2008 and 8th best in 2009.

25 home runs allowed during his Seattle stint comes to 1.24 per nine or just over 3% of batters faced, a slightly worse than average rate.

The league average for ground balls is just about 43%. Carlos Silva's 44% rate certainly did not do much to aid him while in Seattle.

A 6.05 tRA is over a run worse than league average. Carlos Silva was about as bad as Zack Greinke was good in 2008 or CC Sabathia in 2009. Silva was on the same level as 2008-era Paul Byrd or 2009s Livan Hernandez.

Add it all up and by tRA's measurements you have a pitcher that totaled 0.4 wins below replacement during his tenure with the Mariners. And to top it off, he spent 147 days on the disabled list.

Good riddance.

1 recs | 50 comments

Comments

Please do not use this thread to get in one last Silva fat joke

it wasn’t funny then and it’s not funny now. Just let the man be gone.

This was a much nicer writeup than he deserved, or at least it was longer than it deserved to be given its subject – but as usual, Matthew, nice work.

pdb - December 23, 2009 reply

I wonder what his K/9 was?

And by K I mean kisses.

Wilder. - December 23, 2009 reply

Are you happier with your current, much better looking but sometimes difficult and often injured girlfriend/spouse?

Bearskin Rugburn - December 23, 2009 reply

Yes I am and thanks for asking.

Sec 108 - December 23, 2009 reply

At least until she goes after you with a baseball bat or throws a bag of baseballs at you.

Fin - December 23, 2009 reply

So he was on the team!

Poochie - December 23, 2009 reply

I wonder if there's any analysis done on the cost of keeping an unproductive player on a roster

I guess Silva’s spot was a bullpen one in the end, so the maximum contribution is diminished. Still, a decent reliever could have totalled .5-1 WAR over two seasons, so the lost opportunity factors as well.

Bearskin Rugburn - December 23, 2009 reply

Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why?

Can’t people just let me forget all about this guy? Stop it!!

Docmilo - December 23, 2009 reply

But we're going to rue the day we made that trade.

Or something….

You know, the fact that Carlos Silva is gone really hasn’t sunk in yet. Being able to rid ourselves of the one player we couldn’t get rid of for another two years is a reason to celebrate this off season alone. But combined with getting out of Kenji’s contract, signing Chone Figgins for a good price, trading for Cliff Lee, and taking a change on Milton Bradley (in exchange for Carlos Silva and cash no less) I’ve gone into celebration overload. That’s a ton of stuff to digest.

Holy crap, Carlos Silva is gone.

ThundaPC - December 23, 2009 reply

It has most surely sunk in for me

Poochie - December 23, 2009 reply

"taking a change" should be "taking a chance"

Bleh.

ThundaPC - December 23, 2009 reply

I share a similar sentiment

It didn’t hit me until the ‘Good riddance’. He’s really gone.

I’m so excited to win without Silva on our roster, it’s incalculable. It’s not just because of him, either – it’s because he was the last of what was so bad of a painful, horrifying era. And, fittingly, Zduriencik has removed the last reminder of that anguish two years ahead of schedule.

Good riddance, indeed.

cwel87 - December 23, 2009 reply

Josh Fields?

ToddK - December 23, 2009 reply

Z had a choice whether to sign him or not

He chose to sign him.

cwel87 - December 23, 2009 reply

Once he went on the DL I forgot all about him. So this was a pleasant suprise.

HARRYP09 - December 24, 2009 reply

I'm curious as to what caused Silva to fall off the cliff so quickly.

katal - December 23, 2009 reply

He wasnt very good in the first place.

He just looked ok due to bad stats like ERA.

ARock - December 23, 2009 reply

Statcorner has him averaging 1.7 wins..

..Over 4 seasons in Minnesota. He was no Cy Young candidate, but he was never as bad as he became in Seattle.

CKel - December 23, 2009 reply

No sinker

His sinker stopped sinking (for whatever reason, maybe injury, who knows?)

And without that sinker, he’s a batting practice pitcher.

Paul AB - December 23, 2009 reply

And his command.

He was coming off a couple of years where he really wasn’t walking batters, and as our USSM/LL leaders warned us, very few pitchers can maintain that pinpoint command for years on end.

Teej - December 23, 2009 reply

He had that ridiculous season (2006?) where he didn't walk or K anyone.

waldo rojas - December 23, 2009 reply

'05

Graham MacAree - December 23, 2009 reply

Wow.

Gotta love when a guy walks 1.2% of the batters he faces and still has a tRA of 4.4

Teej - December 23, 2009 reply

He was only good by FIP

but he had a horrible line drive rate, his ground ball rate was only meh, and to be fair, he was bad the year before we got him too and pretty much not good two years before that. His tRA for essentially his entire career was terrible, something that few people knew back then. So the idea that he was even average was false. He was never good, and the only thing he had was an okay ground ball rate.

CapSea - December 23, 2009 reply

All true, but something big happened recently

Makes me think that at least part of his shoulder injury story is true, which also makes me think that his 0.5 WAR projections are optimistic. He’s broken, and I seriously doubt he ever recovers.
A shade less velocity, a bit less sink and this is what you get. We should never forget that ANY control-artist pitcher is one pitch from becoming Carlos Silva. Which also makes the long careers of Moyer, Radke, Tewksbury all the more remarkable.

marc w - December 24, 2009 reply

I went to HS with Kyle Kendrick.

I went 1-5 off of him in little league, with a double and 4 strike outs. So, there’s that, I guess.

Kyle Rancourt - December 23, 2009 reply

Just Curious

Between 2007 and 2008, his tRA went from 4.68 to 5.63 while his xFIP remained fairly constant, going from 4.57 to 4.64. Could someone with a better grasp of tRA explain what difference in his pitching caused the shift in tRA? Is it related to the change in his line drive rate (18.8% to 22.9%)?

Nadingo - December 23, 2009 reply

Note

I got tRA and xFIP from fangraphs.

Nadingo - December 23, 2009 reply

Yes, it is the line drives

Jeff Sullivan - December 23, 2009 reply

And some extra homers

Graham MacAree - December 23, 2009 reply

That would have affected his xFIP though, right?

plus he lost a bunch of ground balls over that time

seattlebruin - December 23, 2009 reply

HR/FB rate doesn't affect xFIP

Graham MacAree - December 23, 2009 reply

Basically he was always skirting a cliff

And when his ability fell just a little, he turned from an average SP to trash. When you make your living on not walking anybody and not striking anybody out its a dangerous life.

Edgar for Pres - December 23, 2009 reply