According to the CHONE, Marcel, and Bill James 2009 projections, the difference at the plate over a full season between Bobby Abreu and Reggie Willits is about 20 runs.
According to UZR, +/-, and Revised Zone Rating, the difference in an outfield corner over a full season between Bobby Abreu and Reggie Willits is about 15-20 runs in the other direction.
Should the Angels go on to sign Abreu as expected, they'll be improving their team for little commitment, but it's hard to feel like this whole OF/DH situation of theirs couldn't have been handled a little better. At this point, especially with that outfield, I think I'd rather have Willits than Juan Rivera.
Mike Scioscia is going to have a complicated season.
0 recs | 17 comments
Because why not
JI - February 10, 2009
But hey
That’s why they signed Scioscia to that 147-year extension, right?
ThundaPC - February 10, 2009
We are well overdue for some tasty Angels misery.
thewyrm - February 10, 2009
I still don't understand re-signing Rivera.
Mariner John - February 10, 2009
I am still holding out hope that the M's make an 11th hour move on Abreu.
Fin - February 10, 2009
Nah,
at this rate Dunn might be had on a short-and-sweet deal. I’d much rather have Dunn blasting 400’ shots at Safeco than Abreu doing his thing. Dunn’s got serious trade value if we decide to go that route, Abreu not as much, but he’s not an absolute dog in that department.
Basically, any contract given out to a guy like Dunn, in this market, is going to be pretty conducive to a mid-season trade to the right team. Add to that the Safeco effect, which if nothing else doesn’t diminish his value at all, and might actually improve it over other potential parks. I think Dunn on a one year deal makes a whole lot of sense, even if you have to pay him FA Wins value-rates.
misterjonez - February 10, 2009
We don't have the money.
Or we would have signed Abreu…Dunn will have to come down from his previously declared asking price, but he will probably still go for more than Abreu.
appleshampoo - February 11, 2009
Which is why we will probably end up with Griffey.
Fin - February 11, 2009
Yayy!
Everyone will be happy then.
Zwakamatsu - February 11, 2009
What would make me happy
would be if, after signing Griffey, he actually lasted 400 PA and managed an .850 OPS. Sadly, that seems unlikely.
pygmalion - February 11, 2009
I dont have any problem with Junior being the guy we sign.
One year deal, hopefully he stays healthy and at least league average at the plate. He’s not blocking any prospects at the moment, and we have a hole to fill.
We could (and have) done worse.
Thingray - February 11, 2009
If Griffey
posts anything north of about a .700 OPS and a .330 wOBA, with maybe 20-25 HR is going to be worth a million bucks I think.
Are the Fangraphs numbers right that between 2002 and 2008 Griffey has been overpaid ~50M based on his value wins? That’s pretty incredible.
Zwakamatsu - February 11, 2009
He took a well below market contract too.
JI - February 11, 2009
Yeah I think if you are the Reds back then, you sign him to that deal everytime
Edgar for Pres - February 11, 2009
You can't complain for a second about his contract,
given his career arc and historical durability. That was a ridiculously good contract, especially viewed in retrospect.
As for us not having the money to sign Dunn to similar money the Nats gave him, I don’t know about that. There are ways to free up $10m without hurting yourself, and Dunn would be a huge boost to the offense, and potentially a very good boost to the team overall if he plays 1B (like he’s rumored to do in Washington).
Still, Griffey as another piece of the puzzle, deployed intelligently is yet another smart move for this team.
misterjonez - February 12, 2009
Absolutely
I’m not saying that is any kind of statement on the contract offered, but rather that Griffey really, really has been injured.
Zwakamatsu - February 11, 2009
Should have been a reply...
to the statement above me. Sorry.
Zwakamatsu - February 11, 2009
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