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Lookout Landing

Some Perspective

I like to shoot rubber bands. A few days ago I saw the guy with whom I share an office come walking back to his desk, so I grabbed a rubber band and held it in my fingers in shooting position. When the guy turned the corner and saw that I was aiming at him, he flinched in a matter completely out of proportion to the severity of the threat. Rubber bands barely sting, but he jumped back and blocked his face as if I were holding a porcupine slingshot.

We've been talking about Griffey for so long that, by this point, people on both sides of the argument are firmly entrenched in their positions. For the most part, it's gone beyond "that would help/that wouldn't help" and moved all the way to "that would be awesome/that would be retarded," with some people even claiming that a Griffey signing would undo all of the goodwill that Zduriencik has earned with his tremendous offseason to date.

Stay sane. Look, I don't want us to be the ones forced to watch Griffey limp off into the sunset, but should Zduriencik have to settle, it's not the end of the world. It's not even close. According to the 2009 CHONE projections, the difference between Griffey and, say, Bobby Abreu over 600 plate appearances is about 15 runs. That's less than two wins. While I think almost all of us would prefer to see the M's make room to sign Abreu, settling for Griffey wouldn't spoil the season. It would simply make us a little bit worse than we would've liked. And in the grand scheme of things, in a year in which we're not supposed to make the playoffs,  that just isn't too big of a deal.

Should Griffey end up signing here, that's going to cause widespread overreaction, both from people who love him and from people who would've rather seen us land someone else. But at the end of the day, Griffey's just a rubber band. While startling, he's fun for some, annoying for others, and he's not going to hurt that much unless he hits you in the eye. No matter what happens on this front, don't let it overshadow the rest of the offseason. This decision's magnitude of impact just doesn't compare to that of the others.

3 recs  |  120 comments

Comments

Not to take anything away from the article, but

I really want a porcupine slingshot.

I'm expecting a porcupine slingshot photoshop.

This is how I see it though. It’s obvious GMZ knows what he’s doing. If he brings in Griffey, he’s going to play in a capacity that wouldn’t ruin the team. Griffey would be better than Sexson or Vidro, he just wouldn’t be as valuable as some other options out there. The projections have him offensively as essentially in between Lopez and Beltre. More succinctly, I don’t want us to sign Griffey but he’s much better than other options we could have out there.

I'll probably never make up my mind...

But so far, I’m pleased with everything. Whether we get Griffey or not, it will be the right move. I hope that my confidence in Z is not misplaced, but it’s gotten to the point that that’s how I feel….

Agreed signing Griffey wouldn't be the worse thing to happen but it's not gonna be the bets like some think.

Also I loved the analogy you used.

I really hope that Griffey doesn't hit me in the eye.

because that would smart.

Great post and analogy Jeff,

this is exactly the right way to think about the potential Griffey signing.

The analogies here at this site

always seem to make me laugh. Awesome way to sum up exactly how I feel about the situation.

Agreed

This is an awesome metaphor. Well done, sir.

Perspective is good.

I blame a lot of this on a lingering fear that the FO would turn into the old FO. Where we would see Griffey made an everyday starter. Even if he sucked or was injured would be re-upped for 2010, to do it all over again.

There aren’t too many signings right now that would make a huge impact on the team. Too bad we could not have just traded for Swisher. A trade like that would have stopped all this talk.

Geez, Spring Training, WCB or something has to start soon. I think it is driving some people mad waiting for baseball to return.

It might not be as bad as we think either

cause its almost as easy to hit a HR into RF as it was in the Reds or White Sox stadiums.

Safeco was designed for him to hit in, after all
...And because of that Griffey has been fucking us over for almost 10 years now
Too bad SafeCo wasn't redesign so Ichiro could hit in it.
Any field is designed for Ichiro.

I don’t think you need special dimensions to hit a ball barely past the infield.

Ballpark at Arlington would be perfect for Ichiro.

The infield is practically made of rubber.

I always love the analogies Jeff, it really puts situations into real life perspective.

And in this case, I don’t think Griffey should be that bad. He won’t be a Swisher or Abreu, but what we do know is that he is a guarantee, since Armstrong and co. will make salary room for Griffey without second thought, while they won’t do the same for Swisher or Abreu.

Also, I just really want to see Griffey play for the M’s. I already got tickets to the Mariners this season.

He might be a guarantee to sign

But he’s by no means at all a guarantee to play a full season. That’s what worries me most about Griffey – I just don’t see a scenario where he makes it through the year without hurting himself as a very high probability.

Isn't that the best case scenario?

Really, I’d be thrilled with an outcome where Griffey signs for $1 million or some unimportant piece of the payroll, gives the writers something to write about besides how terrible of a hitter Endy Chavez is, gets the big crowds early in the season and does the whole sentimental return-to-Seattle thing, then blows out his knee at the end of April and is done for the year.

That would make everyone happy, right?

As long as he makes a short-lived comeback next year

I desperately want to see him play in 2010. I love it when a player manages to play in four separate decades.

Meh

The team wouldn’t get any better, we’d stop pursuing better options, and I would get irritated by the massive lovefest.

But then again I irritate easily.

Ok, sounds like a deal.

Maybe Waka could let him play the field a couple of times to encourage this.

He can return in Spetember if we're eliminated, right?
Seriously?

No.

What would make me happy is if Griffey hit 50 homeruns and led the team to the playoffs. I know it isn’t going to happen, but there is no way that I would be happy about him getting injured and losing another season.

Every time he gets hurt, I get a little bit depressed.

He didn’t deserve his injuries, even if he was a jackass sometimes.

Can't he just break his (right) wrist and make a triumphant comeback at the end of the season if the Mariners are way out of the pennant race?
I appreciate this post

If we do end up with Griffey, it won’t be that bad. I don’t want to sign him, but if we do, it will be fun hearing the announcer call him up to bat as “Kennnnn Grifffeeeeyy Juuuune-ior!”, watching his first homerun back, and eventually getting a Griffey autograph. He isn’t going to ruin the team, and even if we do end up barely missing the playoffs because of him, at least we were a team good enough to barely miss the playoffs. I’ll take that.

That said, I want this to end. This entire “Will the Mariners sign Griffey, Abreu, or Anderson?” saga is dragging out like the run-up to the Bedard trade. It’s getting less and less likely that we’ll make room in payroll for Abreu, and I assume that the moment Bobby signs with another team, we’ll ink Griffey within the next 48 hours. Just make it happen already.

The waiting is what's making this offseason retarded.
Actually I much prefer this offseason to the others.

It’s February and we still have significant roster moves to talk about.

I don't know, last offseason had Erik Bedard dragging into February.

But that’s part of what made that offseason terrible.

I prefer how this offseason has played out in terms of how it’s affected us, but while it’s a bit exciting to know that our team can get significantly better in the next month, I also like having an idea of what to look forward to for a little longer. Am I excited to see the young kids play? Or will I be excited because the last one or two people we add will make us possible contenders? The anticipation is killing me. So maybe it’s not retarded, but waking up each morning to find that….nothing…major has happened has gotten a bit boring. Each day I hope to hear something significant about how the team or division is taking shape.

It's February and we have hope the season will be worth watching and better than the last.

Which is way better than the last several years at this time.

You are right.

Rather than being scared of what our GM will do, we are actually excited.

Great SCOTTS!

This is the first time anyone has said I was right about anything on this site. ;-)

I spent...

about 15 seconds trying to fit your subject line to the tune of ‘A Long December’ before I realized that wasn’t what you were going for.

Holy crap! I see what you are talking about. I wasn't going for that but I see it now.

It’s been a long off season and theres reason to believe
Maybe this year will be better than the last

Does that work?

Yes, but this time we're waiting with anticipation.

To where before we were waiting with fear.

And now I just read Fin's post.

The important thing is how much he's paid

I’m sure everyone’s fine if he signs for $2 million, but if he gets $9 million (obviously he won’t) then that isn’t a good move and it would change at least my opinion of Zduriencik from “can do no wrong” to “great but not flawless.”

I agree with this.

I don’t really want to sign him, but I would enjoy each of the small amount of home runs he hit for us immensely, because hey, he’s Griffey. I think it’s clear that Junior is the backup plan for us behind Abreu. I can’t see us taking Anderson over Junior, and Dunn doesn’t seem like a remote possibility, so if it’s Abreu, awesome, and if it’s Griffey, not as awesome, but I’ll still enjoy seeing him play in Mariner blue one last time.

Plus you have Season tickets in RF right?

That would be like Griffey HR territory.

Exactly. I only caught one (Manny's 499th) and narrowly missed another (Ichiro, off my glove) last year, so I'd have a shot at a few.

Raul parked a few near me, but I’d much prefer a Junior homer.

Imagine catching Griffey's last career homer.

Also, what section do you have tickets in? I won 4 tickets in Section 109 in an auction for April 15th.

I'm in Section 108. If you're looking at the field from the concourse above 108, I'm on the far left, four rows up from the field, with the two seats on the end.

Got to move up a row and two seats to the left this year…woooo

Sweet.

Maybe we could plan a LL meet up on this date as we move closer to that date. It is a Wednesday night, but its a day after opening day, so it should be a good game. Maybe Baker could come and buy be some beer.

I know it wasn't going to happen

but if we wanted to take a ride on the nostalgia train, I vastly preferred that train to be six feet, ten inches tall.

Are you suggesting we sign a good player?
Yeah, it's not a ride on the nostalgia train if the player is good.

Going back to your home city to ride into the sunset only works when you suck.

Besides, PETA wouldn't approve.
Sexson sucks.
Don't know if that was an intentional joke or not.
It was

Sexson is only 6’7".

I about to make a rollercoaster joke about you being two inches short too

(Sexson is 6’8")

With shoes.
And Johnson plays shoeless?
Johnson is irrelevant in this situation.
That would be Jackson.
Oh yeah, since I hadn't made the direct connection before. Without Chuck Armstrong we:

A) have Washburn off the books + some org filler in return.
B) might have actually signed Randy Johnson

I'll sign for league minimum!
You are not alone.
My only real issue

with bringing Griffey in has to do with the nostalgic baggage he brings in. I’ll be pretty please if Wakamatsu can put out the most optimum team on the field each day without worrying about making sure Griffey plays as many games as possible to please the fans.

It's the Opportunity Cost of Signing Griffey Over Abreu that I Regret

I keep waiting for Seattle management to focus on the positive statement that would be made by expanding the budget very modestly and signing Abreu. The team has already paved the way by reducing what has been a historically profitable budget – they are in a position to have slashed spending by $15 million and have the City’s perception be that they reached into their own pockets, damned the financial consequences, and invested in trying to winning. What an opportunity.

For a roughly 3% increase in salary (measured against the team’s salary budget as a whole), the team can buy 2 wins. Given the modest competition in the AL West, the team would also be edging into the range where wins become potentially much more valuable. A fast start and they can leverage the investment at mid-season with more trades if need be. If the team doesn’t start fast and isn’t competing for the AL West title, Abreu could have value as a trade piece given his very reasonable salary. In doing so, the team would have limited its financial exposure to half season of Abreu’s salary. (Try that with Griffey.) The odds of the Mariners being in the playoff hunt at mid-season don’t have to be particularly high to make the case that signing Abreu is a better financial decision. The biggest risk isn’t financial – it’s that Abreu unexpected falls off the cliff. He’s been impressively durable throughout his career. The projection models don’t foretell a collapse.

San Francisco's Off Season Is A Great Example

With reports of an offer to Joe Crede and the Giants potentially posed to swoop in on Manny Ramirez, they are a great example of realizing the opportunity this market presents for cost-effective improvement. A good example historically is the Angels’ signing of Vlad Guerrero, although there is no equivalent player in the market this winter. Adam Dunn might offer the best chance for a long-term payoff, although it could be that he understands this and will take a short-term contract to see if he can re-enter when the economy (or whatever it is that is keeping prices down) resolves.

These last two posts made me look at A-Rod and Griffey

leading me to the ’97 team. Holy fuck how the hell did they not do better than they did. Pretty much an entire lineup that was average or better for their position and three solid starters. Woody Woodward could not find pitching to save his life.

I was just re-reading an old article DMZ wrote about this a few years back.

Linky.

Good stuff.

That was good stuff.

Man, the Marlins were always pretty smart at building a team. Its too bad the city they are in doesn’t give a shit about them. Sheff, Brown, and Leiter, they had an excellent team in 97.

Plus A-Rod had a "down" year by his standards.

I’ll tell you something though, watching him smash a double, and Junior and Edgar go deep in that 19 K game Randy had on MLB Network today…man, that brought back some memories.

The sad thing about '97 is I don't remember it at all.

I just know that we made the playoffs and I probably went to a couple regular season games. i vaguely remember Johnson pitching in the playoffs but nothing of value. I wish 6 year old me knew what he was missing.

I was pretty young too (9) so I don't remember too much...

The first game I really remember BEING at was Game 3 of the 1995 ALDS…though while I know everything that happened that game, I don’t remember too much specifically from my view, just that it was loud as hell and we were in the upper deck. That’s the game I wish I could remember fully…

Man you guys are young

I like to think of myself as young but the earliest games I remember are when Griffey was hitting home runs in eight straight games and the only reason I don’t remember anything earlier was that I only came to care about baseball because of Griffey doing that and chasing Maris in ’94. I remember 1994 and 1995 extremely well. 1996-1999 however are actually difficult to make out, despite the fact that I listened to or watched every single game save a handful that occurred during school.

I remember Jr. and Sr. playing in the same OF.
I remember Griffey playing in Vermont.
You truly are the better fan.
I remember seeing Griffey as a Red and booing him
I gave him a standing ovation
*But it's funny

that when I bought tickets to that game in March it never even registered with me that would be the “griffey Series”

I meant in 2000
Like the Reds would ever play in San Diego
Too bad that Nevin trade didn't go through
He went deep and I was sad
I probably would have booed him in 2000 also.
We could still blame all this on Bud Selig if we want:

Had Interleague play rotated at all in the first year or two after the Griffey deal, and the M’s played against Jr. in Seattle, I think people would not love Jr. as much as they do.

I probably would have booed him in ‘00, and I might have even booed him in ’01. Really, I think Jr. got lucky that the trade more or less worked out on the M’s side. If Mike Cameron hadn’t robbed Derek Jeter of a HR in game 2 of the 2000 season, we might still be angry about how he sabotaged the M’s trade efforts.

Excellent point
How Gillick pulled off that trade

and basically being hand-cuffed to only the Reds, its amazing the value he got in return.

I remember you posting on the ESPN M's board about that
Were you, by chance, at that first game?
This

is why I want Ken Griffey Jr. I became an M’s fan in 2005 after I moved here to Seattle, long after the glory days of 1995-2003. I missed out on what were the best seasons to be a Mariners fan, and to be able to talk about seeing RJ, Griffey, A-Rod, and Edgar, and later Mike Cameron, Bret Boone, and Ichiro on the same team.

Seeing Griffey play would be incredible, then I could tell my future kids, that yes, I saw Griffey play as a Mariner. I understand you can see a wall painting/mural of Griffey in an M’s uniform in person, but that really isn’t the same as Ken Griffey being on the M’s and hitting a HR in the RF that was designed for his swing.

I understand intelectually that he may not be what’s best for the team’s performance, but I just want a part of those M’s glory days, a time when we would feel there is a chance our team could make it all the way, rather than having a lousy put together team that for one year (2007) was a pseudo-contender. Hopefully Z is now crafting that team of the future that will develop and new stars and legends for the M’s will be born. Until then, I wouldn’t mind seeing someone like Griffey end his career here, despite the fact he won’t be as valuable to the team.

Devil's advocate time

Seeing Griffey play would be incredible, then I could tell my future kids, that yes, I saw Griffey play as a Mariner.

But is it really the same, seeing a broken Griffey go 1-5 with 3 K’s and wincing as he tries to leg out an infield single? Wouldn’t that make you just a bit sad?

I just want a part of those M’s glory days

Not to be rude, but you can’t have them. None of us can – even those of us that were fans in the “glory days”. Those days were many years ago, and they’re gone. Wouldn’t it be more satisfying to create your own memories, to have your OWN M’s glory days over the next several years, as the team starts to be a contender again?

Griffey went 1-5 six times, and 1-7 once in '93

And he struck out 3 times twice, going 1-4 and 0-4, that was probably his best full season season. He went 1-5 seven times last season, he struck out 3 times in a game twice, going 1-6 and 0-4 in those games. He also had 2 bunt singles last year (in April before the knee injury).

Bobby Abreu, on the other hand

Went 1-5 ten times last year, and struck out 3 times twice, going 1-5 once and 0-4 another time. Does it help that he’s likely to get a couple more infield singles?

Sorry you missed it but that Griffey and those teams just do not exsist anymore.

The player we could see in 2009 isn’t the same player even if it is the same person.

I was also at that game.

But at age 14 so I remember it clearly. One of the games that helped cement me as, for better or worse, a life-long M’s fan.

Game 2 in NY

Really sticks in my memory. It felt like it lasted forever and for some reason, I guess because of the Yankee history and his success in that stadium, I really expected / hoped that Buhner would hit one out to put the M’s on top. I remember doing some sort of stupid dance when he came up to bat, all the while thinking to myself, “So this is what it’s like!”

When Edgar hit "the double"

to end that series, my sister and I had been pacing the various rooms of our house, watching every TV in every room because we were so nervous. It just so happened we were in the kitchen when it happened.

We both jumped up and down joyfully, and I’m not ashamed to admit that my sister wasn’t the only one screaming like a little girl.

NOTHING in my sports fan life have compared to that moment, before or since. I will never forget Griffey, having just scored the winning run of a miraculous comeback, at the bottom of a Mariner dogpile, grinning ear to ear.

So I guess I shouldn’t be ashamed that I would welcome him back, regardless of what he can offer statistically at this point in his career. If his presence, even if just for a moment, takes me back to that pinnacle of sports happiness, it will have been all worth it to me.

To be honest

I have no memory of “the double.” At that point the euphoria overwhelmed my brain’s circuitry.

I was in the 100 level in left field for the double.

We could tell it was fair from where we were, but when it came rolling back into the corner we couldn’t see it because we were several rows back and everyone was on their feet. We just saw Griffey hauling ass towards third and Perlazzo waving him in. We thought it was going to be really close at home.

After Cleveland finished mopping the floor with us, I remember staying in our seats for well over an hour cause nobody wanted to leave.

True

Cleveland series was payback for a rare episode of Mariner joy. I thought Edgar was going to pull it out again in Game 5 when in the bottom of the ninth he hit the tenth pitch of the AB to the wall off Joe Table. Didn’t happen.

I was up in the 200 level under the scoreboard when The Double went down.

I can still see the ball whipping toward the LF corner in my mind, but after that point all I can remember is the video feed.

Almost a better moment: my school bus had the one-game-playoff against the Angels on the radio the whole way home. When I got off the bus, I booked it home, opened the back door, tore through the house and did a baseball slide in front of the TV just in time to see the Luis Sojo “Everybody Scores” play.

The Luis Sojo hit will always be my biggest memory.

I sat on the steps in the Kingdome and teared up a bit. I had grown up under the assumption that the M’s would never make the playoffs so that day was very sweet.

Until I looked it up in Baseball Reference

I had forgotten that Griffey hit 5 home runs in that series. 1995 was all about Edgar and Randy to me and it is Edgar’s hits and Randy’s pitching that I remember from that series. (Although I do have two clear Griffey memories from the season: breaking his hand, and his home run off of John Wetteland in the bottom of the night on Aug. 27th).

Bottom of the ninth

Err.

Yeah

Edgar had a monster series, but so did Jr. 5 homers in five games? Yikes

Griffey hit a should-be double play grounder immediately prior to Edgar's heroics
That would have put A-Rod in line to save baseball in Seattle
Tim Belcher sabotaged Griffey's game winning homer in Game 2
Jeff Reboulet and Mike Mussina happened.
Griffey: meh.

My big problem with him is he’s useful in exactly ONE role: DH against RHP (or, I guess, as a PH against RHP). The problem is that while that’s a somewhat useful role, he’s likely to want to do things outside of that (play defense, play against LHP), or be paid like he’s a full time player- plus he’s a non-trivial collapse/injury risk.

If none of this is true, and you can juggle the roster as needed, sure, let Griffey get his 400 PAs in playing DH/PH and OPSing .775 as a free talent DH, as long as he’s not Carl Everetting up the joint or blocking anyone useful. I just have my suspicions otherwise, and feel that this is going to work out sup-optimally. Griffey at this point in his career is roster filler, but this past history makes it tricky to TREAT him like roster filler- I would worry that the casual fans will go crazy if he gets dumped for someone like Halman or Carp in June, even if it’s the right move for the team, and you end up with the sort of backlash the press fomented against Podesta when he made moves that, while logically sound, weren’t typical as to how you run your roster when you’re in first place.

My take...

As someone who, despite major mocking from friends, remains steadfastly excited in hopes of Griffey’s swan song return to the M’s (and reasonably optimistic with what numbers he’d put up if managed properly, and if reasonably healthy), I see one major potential risk that allows me to accept that signing him could very well do more harm than good.

He’d almost be too much the center of attention for everyone (coaches included). The younger players wouldn’t get a chance to shine as easily since they’d have a majorly uphill battle trying to take spotlight away from Griffey. In some ways, though, I’ve thought that that might actually help the young guys by taking some of the pressure OFF of them. But, really, part of growing into a major-league player is taking on the cloak of pressure and learning to excel in spite of it.

As has been mentioned several times, too, Griffey’s a link to the past and looking backwards is not what this team needs. They need to look forward and move towards the future and change. Let some different guys grab the spotlight.

Again, though, it could just as easily take some negative pressure off some of these younger players and allow them to just play to their abilities and get more comfortable in the league.

And, yeah, count me in as someone who believes it would help a lot of people pay more attention to the Mariners this year, at the minimum, and potentially could fill even a few series’ worth of games. That helps everyone, really. MLB baseball, fundamentally, is a game and a source of mere entertainment. Even the more casual fans that I’ve talked about Griffey with realize that he’s definitely not the player he was in the early 90s. I get the sense that even THEY don’t expect him to come in and play gold-glove defense and hit 40-50 bombs. Not everyone, of course, but certainly the majority of non-blog-educated fans that I’ve talked with recognize that he’s old and slow and not even close to the player he was with us the first go-around.

There’s certainly serious risk involved, but you can’t say there’s no upside either.

Yep.

I’d rather the team didn’t resign him. But at this point, I’m ready to give in just so the discussion is over and the team goes back to rebuilding.

And frankly, a good grudge dies hard with me. I still can’t forgive him forcing that trade in the first place.

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