While we have little concrete predictive ability in anticipating injuries based on a pitcher's mechanics, using a pitcher's workload as a predictive engine shows much better, though still loose at best, results. Namely, large increases in pitches in one year seem to increase the chance for injury in the next. That makes intutive sense from just a workout perspective. If you had typically been running three miles a day and then decided one morning to go out and run a full marathon, you might get through it, but the next day when you went to go running, you might find yourself more likely to be sore.
In other words, it's always a good idea to build up your strength levels gradually rather than attempting to do it in large chunks. With pitchers, we generally measure that in innings pitched (though some metric based on number of pitches, pitches per inning and pitches weighted by LI would be better equipped to measure stress). The general rule is that you want pitchers to take no more than 40 IP leaps from year to year.
In 2007, pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, Brandon Morrow threw 63.1 innings. Last year, in a mix of relief and starting, Morrow recorded 95.1 innings. Immediately you should see why expecting Morrow to log anything close to 200 innings this year wouldn't be a great hope to rest on. This is further exacerbated by Morrow's use in college, where he didn't spend a lot of time starting until 2006, a year in which he collectively pitches 112.2 innings.
Ignoring 2006, we would think that 130 innings or so would be the max for Morrow in 2009. That appears to be a fair estimate. Factoring 2006 in, there might be some clues that his body would adjust to 150 or so innings without too much trouble, but that is probably the limit. Couple Morrow's young age - he turns 25 in late July - with the injury he already showed this Spring, (which, by the way, he now says is behind him, giving him a shot at breaking camp in the rotation) and it seems wise to be rather cautious with Morrow's workload this season.
0 recs | 20 comments
30 5 inning starts?
Probably not.
JI - March 17, 2009
That's how Scott Kamir does it (if you can get 30 starts out of him).
abender20 - March 17, 2009
rawr
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?share=1&n1=kazmisc01&year=2008&t=p#100:105:sum
P Brady - March 17, 2009
Or...
5.63 innings per start.
abender20 - March 17, 2009
Morrow also pitched something like 40 innings
in Venezuela in 2007 if memory serves, as well as about 30 getting stretched out in the minors last summer. So you could call it 120 or 150 for 2008. But that doesn’t really affect the overall point that he’s not going to come anywhere near 200 without risking grave injury.
Bearskin Rugburn - March 17, 2009
I counted minor league innings.
Matthew - March 17, 2009
Yes, but not winter leagues (apparently)
BR’s right that he had 31 IP in Venezuela in 2007 on top of his 63 in Seattle. And yes, you could add the 31.333 IP for Lara to 2007 or to 2008; it’s right in between.
(And yes, the overall point stands).
marc w - March 17, 2009
I figure winter leagues are basically in place of normal off season workouts.
Matthew - March 17, 2009
Fair enough.
I have to think they’re a bit higher stress than a workout, but perhaps not at the level approaching a random AA inning. Who knows.
marc w - March 17, 2009
My mistake
Bearskin Rugburn - March 17, 2009
So this probably means RRS will be seeing significant time starting yes?
OlSalty - March 17, 2009
I just think it means that Morrow's likely to be the best 5th starter in the AL...
The team has already said they’re looking at putting him at the back of the rotation. That way he can skip the occasional start when necessary while keeping Felix and Bedard pitching every 5th day.
CMC_Stags - March 17, 2009
Though I think RRS starts the season either in AAA as a starter...
or in the ’pen as the long man. Then he would step in as a spot starter whenever there is an injury. I think starting in AAA makes more sense in the short term since the team needs to shake out the rest of the bullpen and that last spot on the 25 could be used for Tyler Walker or someone else until you need to call RRS up.
Then again, I think RRS is on his last option, so maybe you start him in the pen to keep that option. I’m just not sure what’s in the team’s best interest: starting RRS in AAA so he’s ready to come up full time when called on at the cost of his last option or having him pitch long-relief at the beginning of the season with the big-league team and retaining that last option.
CMC_Stags - March 17, 2009
With Morrow only turning 25 in July, I think using him sparingly would be best.
Figure that pitchers normally age differently than hitters, as pitching at 40 is waaaaay different than hitting at 40. Why rush Morrow when he could be a solid pitcher for a very long time?
JLProck - March 17, 2009
To maximize his value during the time that he's under club control?
johnbai - March 17, 2009
Which is for how long?
JLProck - March 17, 2009
This year, and the three following (all arbitration years).
andrewgolfsalot - March 17, 2009
We have Morrow for five more years.
Teej - March 17, 2009
I hope Morrow levels up soon.
johnbai - March 17, 2009
Oh, so baseball players are just pixels in a video game to you?
Well let me tell you, bud, they are living, breathing human beings, and if Brandon Morrow heard you saying this, I have no doubt that he would be extremely offended.
.Taylor - March 17, 2009
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