Last spring I identified a bunch of players who claimed to be - or were said to be - in better shape for the upcoming season. Here's how they (and a few others I missed) wound up doing.
Hitters
(Molina, Edmonds, Dye, Konerko, Pierzynski, Thome, Crawford, Sweeney, Quinlan, Posada, Sheffield, Martin)
2007 wOBA: .347
2008 wOBA: .335
Javy Lopez said that he was in the best shape of his life, but he couldn't get a job. Brian Anderson got a little better after spending most of 2007 hurt or in the minors. Interestingly, Jayson Nix, Paul McAnulty, and Nelson Cruz all improved in AAA after getting more fit. Johnny Damon, meanwhile, acknowledged that he was 12 pounds overweight and increased his value in the Majors by 1.6 wins.
Defensive evaluation is difficult, but it's worth noting that only Carl Crawford saw his defensive statistics improve by any significant margin, and all four of the catchers threw out fewer basestealers in 2008 than they did in 2007. Jim Edmonds' UZR nosedived.
Pitchers
This is really tough, so let's just go one by one:
Rich Harden: bounced back from a bunch of injuries to have a phenomenal, albeit limited season
Ray King: couldn't stick with the Nationals and wound up in AAA
Duaner Sanchez: bounced back from a lost 2007 to have the worst statistical season of his career
Felix: lasted the season but got slightly worse
Barry Zito: lasted the season but got slightly worse
Boof Bonser: pitched decently but wound up with an ugly ERA and a bullpen demotion
Clay Buchholz: pitched worse in the higher levels
Francisco Liriano: bounced back from a lost 2007 to have a solid season, albeit one that was worse than 2006
Joba Chamberlain: pitched very well as both a reliever and a starter until getting hurt
Kevin Millwood: lasted the season and stayed about the same
Chad Cordero: was completely fucked
0 recs | 25 comments
So being an out-of-shape, crouch grabbing, tobacco chewing, beer drinking baseball player is the way to become a better player.
I’m just messing because I know that is not your point, but hey, doing those things might actually give yourself a nice boost.
Wilder. - March 23, 2009
So, I guess that makes me a HOF contender then?
d0nkey - March 23, 2009
Well, you actually have to have the talent to play baseball.
But I am sure you can rise to the top of your softball league.
Wilder. - March 23, 2009
We have a zero-tolerance on booze policy in my leagues
And they don’t let me smoke on the field. So I guess I can only dream
d0nkey - March 23, 2009
Doesn't that go against everything softball leagues are about?
Mariner John - March 23, 2009
It's positively un-American
pdb - March 23, 2009
I got thrown out of a game for being the closest player to an open beer once
Buncha savages in this town
d0nkey - March 23, 2009
That is messed up
wadswerth - March 23, 2009
What town is this?
Fin - March 23, 2009
Detoxopolis
pdb - March 23, 2009
Bellingham
Buncha hippies
d0nkey - March 23, 2009
It seems like hippies would be far less likely to be opposed to beer.
Aaron Campeau - March 23, 2009
That seems rather un-Bellingham-like.
Seeing as how there are a bunch of liberal college students in the area. You’d think they’d be pretty lax on the beer policy.
JLProck - March 23, 2009
I agree.
Could possibly have something to do with the number of drunken fights we had last season..
d0nkey - March 23, 2009
You think?
Aaron Campeau - March 23, 2009
I think blow might have been more of a factor in those fights but..
Tomatoe potatoe
d0nkey - March 23, 2009
Just look at Babe Ruth.
JLProck - March 23, 2009
Actually, Babe Ruth was a world-class weightlifter in the off-season.
He just looks fat in old pictures because he didn’t have to trim down 2% body fat until January. And those hot dogs, they were revolutionary protein bars.
Wilder. - March 23, 2009
Must have been all the sawdust and rat shit
Does wonders for a body
tootthekazoo - March 23, 2009
Felix got hurt last year
Robert - March 23, 2009
great post. thanks. will there be a sequal?
walkoffwalk - March 23, 2009
Javy Lopez
I remember seeing him in the Spring of ‘03 and thinking, “Christ almighty, this guy is in fantastic shape!!!” I thought the similar things of Pudge Rodriguez in ’04 and Edgar Renteria in ’06. It’s certainly not a foolproof method of identifying a good upcoming season, but with position players, it’s a nice data point to throw in the mix.
Bodhizefa - March 23, 2009
I would argue that it's not a method at all
Jeff Sullivan - March 23, 2009
Subjective analysis of a guy's shape based on observation is bulletproof.
Mariner John - March 23, 2009
His hitting bounced back and his !RA was through the roof! Get this man a job already!
JI - March 23, 2009
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