The Five Biggest Subplots Of Spring Training
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 5, 2009 3:43 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners Stats
The news needs to report news. Even when there is no news to report. That's how we end up with ST articles about Ryan Feierabend's kid or Bryan LaHair's laughable bid for a job. Let me help you sort through all the fluff so you can focus on the most important things to which you should pay attention over the next several weeks.
- The closer race. It's been talked about at some length both here and at USSM, but as of now, the Mariners haven't yet settled on a designated closer. The list of candidates includes Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista, Roy Corcoran, and - depending on who you ask - David Aardsma, Randy Messenger, and Tyler Walker. Nobody stands out right now, as pretty much all of them have had their good games and bad ones, but Lowe, Aardsma, and Walker have the best pure stuff. This is going to be an interesting race; barring surprise, Lowe's my preferred choice, and probably the team's, as well, but in this kind of competition it doesn't take much for a guy to fall out of favor. And these guys know it, too. There's probably a lot more intensity and focus in the bullpen than there usually is this time of year.
- Erik Bedard's progress. Okay, so this one won't be that easy to follow, given the pointlessness of Spring Training statistics and all, but it's important for the team to have him throwing at full strength and being able to spot his fastball and curve. It'll take a lot of work for Erik to put last season behind him, but remember, it was just a year ago that he was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. That talent is still in there somewhere. If he's able to build up his arm strength and stay healthy, then he'll be in line for a considerable rebound, a rebound that could conceivably put us in the blessed position of having two #1's. Whether the team's looking to run to the playoffs or acquire prospects at the deadline, Bedard's well-being will be a big deal.
- Shortstop. When the Mariners traded for Ronny Cedeno and said they planned on using him to push Yuniesky Betancourt, a lot of fans rolled their eyes, having heard this kind of tune before. This time, though, it's not all talk. Granted, Yuni is the projected starter, but the Mariners have told Cedeno that he's in the running to start, and if Yuni has a rough go of it this month, then he could be shit outta luck. The new front office doesn't hold him in the highest regard. Rumor has it that Yuni shed some weight over the winter, but if that offseason dedication doesn't translate into better agility and focus on the field, then we might really see a changing of the guard. This isn't exactly a Lopez/Vina sort of thing. This is a legitimate threat. It doesn't help that Yuni already had to miss a bunch of time with a bad hamstring.
- Griffey's legs. Before committing to any plan for where Griffey is going to play, the Mariners have said on multiple occasions that they want to see how his body holds up to the rigors of playing the outfield. How he fares is going to have a significant impact on the outlook of the roster. If his legs give him a little trouble, then he'll serve as the regular DH, with both Chavez and Balentien getting time in LF, which is better for the team. If his legs hold up, though, then he'll presumably get a lot more time in left, which makes the team worse at two positions. I suppose this is both a test of Griffey and a test of Wakamatsu, because even if Griffey makes his case for playing the field, it's the manager who has the ultimate say in where to fit him in. I guess what we should be hoping for is that Griffey's knees are too bad for him to play the field, but good enough to let him hit without being a cripple. That way we don't have to worry about the possibility of a rookie manager caving to a beloved veteran.
- Griffey's influence. I haven't spent that much time talking about all the alleged clubhouse issues from last year, because I didn't want to contribute to what I believe to have been an overblown story, but the fact of the matter is that a lot of players on this team really do not like Ichiro very much. And no matter what you think about the impact of clubhouse chemistry, a lot of players having a problem with your biggest star can't possibly be good. So with that in mind, it's going to be interesting to see how Griffey changes the dynamic, if at all. For one thing, we know that Ichiro's a big fan of his, so that might be one way to unify the clubhouse. And for another, while a lot of people see Ichiro as a primadonna, Griffey puts him to shame in that regard, so having another high-profile celebrity with even more grating tendencies might put things in perspective. Either by showing that you can be a primadonna and a contributing teammate at the same time, or by showing that being a star who doesn't lead isn't a quality unique to Ichiro. This is the first time a Mariner clubhouse has ever been shared by Ichiro and another international icon. Shifting some focus over to the new guy instead of heaping it all on the incumbent could work wonders.
What, no comment on LaHair and his "new found power and outfielding prowess"?
Thingray - March 5, 2009
Any chance the new regime goes outside the box on closer
and lets Wakamatsu use whichever pitcher best fits the situation?
waldo rojas - March 5, 2009
Highly unlikely
Jeff Sullivan - March 5, 2009
"Closer by commitee" has been tried before.
It’s failed miserably.
Thingray - March 5, 2009
That's not a very fair characterization
Better to say that “closer by committee” hasn’t really been tried out that much, and isn’t a realistic expectation, given the culture of baseball.
Jeff Sullivan - March 5, 2009
Perhaps I should try again.
The few times that this has been tried, it has not been successful for multiple reasons.
Thingray - March 5, 2009
I think the primary reason
is that teams only try it when their bullpen totally sucks (I believe the ‘97-’98 Mariners gave it a few goes). It hasn’t failed because it’s a bad idea, it’s failed because the pitchers being used are so terrible that it doesn’t matter who gets used when.
Rollo Tomasi - March 5, 2009
My thought as well.
Most managers end up going with a closer by committee because they have a committee of shitty pitchers and none of them is good enough to be “the guy.”
Teej - March 5, 2009
Worked fine in the 70s
JI - March 6, 2009
The way closers are valued, I would be very happy to see the M's run a closer factory like the A's have done for years.
abender20 - March 5, 2009
Which is to say, chose one guy and let him rack those saves up.
abender20 - March 5, 2009
I totally agree with this
It seems like the number of teams that can tell the difference between a Todd Jones and a K-Rod is going up considerably though
Corco - March 5, 2009
I'm not suggesting that the M's ship off bad closers (although more power to Zduriencik if he can swindle teams).
I’m still of the opinion that the potential reward for trading a closer is greater than the difficulty in finding another. As long as guys like Lowe/Aardsma/Walker can handle the job, GMZ already proved that it’s not hard to find guys like that.
abender20 - March 5, 2009
Not likely
This isn’t part of the mold that you’re allowed to break in MLB.
Part of the problem is that the perceived value of closers is so high in the free agent market that players naturally want to become the closer because that will mean a million to several million dollars in their next contract.
Part of the problem is that media is going to jump all over you the first time one of your committee blows a save. They’re going to tell stories about “closer mentalities.” They’re going to ignore that you shut a team down in the eighth by using your relief ace in a high leverage situation.
Part of the problem is that while the point about using your best reliever in a high leverage situation, whether it’s the seventh, eighth or ninth, is that ultimately, the 9th is the highest leverage situation 80% of the time. (I made that number up, and I’ll be glad if someone corrects me.) So ultimately, the relief ace will get used like a closer in 80% of games in which he even appears.
philosofool - March 5, 2009
The way it works out with a closer
the best reliever gets the highest leverage innings anyway. And it’s not uncommon to see closers come in earlyinto a tied game these days.
Bearskin Rugburn - March 5, 2009
When's the last time we saw a closer come in in the 7th inning to quash a rally?
Teej - March 5, 2009
Putz never has, according to fangraphs
But he did come out quite a bit in the 8th. He only pitched more than 1 inning on 3 occasions last year, including one that went into the 10th. That might be attributed to McLaren not wanting to overwork him during an injury laden year.
But in 2007 when he was healthy, he came out and pitched more than one inning 11 times out of 68 appearances, or 16%. 10 of them included the were situations where the M’s were down or up by 2 or less. So basically, every 7th time we saw Putz trotting out to save the day, it happened in the 8th inning, not the 9th.
Ezzra - March 5, 2009
But he then pitched through to the end of the game, regardless of whether he was still needed.
Creative use would involve bringing him into a tie game, and then removing him for the next inning if we pulled out a big lead.
Llewdor - March 6, 2009
But rarely do we pull to a big lead.
Putz stays out because perhaps we may have gained a run or two, but it’s still a close game. It’s still a fairly high leverage situation the majority of the time, so we keep the best reliever.
And I sure hope we never get this creative with any closer of ours.
Ezzra - March 6, 2009
Go check the LI for relievers and tell me if you see any non-closers in the top ten
Bearskin Rugburn - March 6, 2009
I get that part. The high-leverage innings are usually the last ones.
I was talking about your second sentence. I don’t see many closers coming in early. The role still seems pretty strictly defined.
I’ll just look at the top five on that gmLI list. The percentage of batters faced that occurred before the ninth inning:
K-Rod: 0%
Wilson: 3.2%
Rivera: 6.2%
Nathan: 5.4%
Gregg: 11.1% (wasn’t the closer all year)
It looks like Gregg was used a little more creatively than most, but it still seems that, for the most part, managers are pretty set on saving their closer for the ninth or extras.
Teej - March 6, 2009
I really hope Griffey's legs are on a short leash, as it were
I’d hate for Griffey to try to prove he can still play the OF and go fairly strong in spring training, only to have nothing left in the tank by mid-May. I hope Wakamatsu and his staff are willing to be hyper-critical.
pdb - March 5, 2009
re: Jr's legs
But his prior knee injuries have nothing to do with 2009!
He’s been healthy for years now, except for the years he wasn’t, but they don’t count for some reason!
The fact that he hasn’t been able to play much this Spring because his knee is already bothering him means nothing!
Matthew - March 5, 2009
I disagree.
Aaron Campeau - March 5, 2009
After all, those knees saved baseball in Seattle!
pdb - March 5, 2009
I know
:(
Jeff Sullivan - March 5, 2009
I'm beginning to think that the best possible scenario is one where he is on the DL for a long time.
JI - March 6, 2009
Someone should do to Griffey what Moe tried to do to Mr Burns in that bowling episode.
EnglishMariner - March 5, 2009
Tanya Harding is undoubtedly available.
abender20 - March 5, 2009
RE: Bedard
I wish we had PitchF/X data from spring training so we could see how his velocity and control look.
RE: Griffey’s legs
I think the best case scenario here is Griffey’s legs look good in spring training, but then Wakamatsu makes him the DH anyway. That would demonstrate that Wakamatsu knows what he’s doing, and is willing to stand up to his players.
Llewdor - March 5, 2009
RE: Bedard
What’s the track record for pitchers returning from shoulder cyst removal?
InSpokane - March 5, 2009
I'd guess that it's not a terribly common procedure
so really don’t know.
seattlebruin - March 5, 2009
Well, they abraded his labrum at the same time, so it might be possible to extrapolate from that pretty common procedure ....
msb - March 5, 2009
The Subplots
——————
The Closer Race: Easily the most intesting story given that we have a lot of candidates and nobody running away with it. I wouldn’t mind showcasing Batista for the trade deadline but only if he manages to outperform all the other candidates. Mark Lowe would be my favorite candidate with David Aardsma being the dark horse.
Erik Bedard’s progress: Probably the best way to approach this is to keep tabs on articles featuring Erik Bedard including post-game intervews (stopped and read Larry Stone’s Bedard update as I typed this) . Overall, it seems like Bedard is taking the same approach to Spring Training with some improvements and no discomfort.
Shortstop: The coaches seem willing to try and get Yuni back on track but he definately doesn’t have it in the bag. I think at this point SS is Yuni’s position to lose. If he’s not up to it before the season starts or even during the season he’s probably toast.
Griffey’s Legs: I think no matter what, Griffey will spend no more than half of his time in the outfield. If Griffey tries to convince Wakamatsu that he can play regularly, Wakamatsu has the leverage of the argument thanks to health concerns. I really like the “take it slow” approach that Wak applies to players who are coming back from injury (even with Beltre).
Griffey’s influence: This subplot is going to be on a holding pattern until all the players come back from the WBC so anything we get out of this won’t happen until the end of March.
ThundaPC - March 5, 2009
I should've mentioned that
Point #5 doesn’t come into play for a few weeks (save for the “bonding with Griffey” part).
Jeff Sullivan - March 5, 2009
Zduriencik and Wakamatsu seem to fit the baseball mold that values defense up the middle more highly than just about anything.
Catcher, SS, CF. If he put a higher premium on defense at SS and left the bat out of the equation, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit. My opinion is probably tainted by reading too much into some of his comments and acquisitions this offseason, and personally being sick of the promise of Yuni.
Kermit. - March 5, 2009
"but the fact of the matter is that a lot of players on this team really do not like Ichiro very much. "
I’d be curious to know if that is really true anymore — a lot of the “old school” guys have been moved on their way.
Beltre’s complaints seem to be more to do with a diference of opinion about when you hit the cut-off man, rather than a personal animus.
msb - March 5, 2009
Ichiro's clique does not have many members
Jeff Sullivan - March 5, 2009
It really is too bad he isn't in camp until late ...
There are a lot of new faces that could be won over.
Wasn’t someone supposed to make copies of the “Ichiro is right” articles for clubhouse distribution?
msb - March 5, 2009
Thing is, I have no doubt in mind that Ichiro is probably kind of a total dick.
Aaron Campeau - March 5, 2009
Yeah, his stoic attitude probably isn't that charming, really
Ezzra - March 5, 2009
For American athletes...
…yeah.
But for people who get him, he’s a riot….
rtang - March 5, 2009
I think I'd rather his teammates get him then some guy in Japan
Ezzra - March 5, 2009
No wonder we all like him so much
OlSalty - March 5, 2009
Pretty much.
Aaron Campeau - March 5, 2009
I can see Ichiro and Bedard exchanging coy, knowing looks across the locker room
And never saying anything to each other. Ever.
Kermit. - March 5, 2009
I don't know if he's a dick as much as he's just a loner.
I don’t think he wants to be best friends with his teammates, and that can probably rub people the wrong way when they spend half their lives together.
Teej - March 5, 2009
In a "there's-no-I-in-team" America
there’s not much room for a player whose way of making the greatest contribution to his team is by focusing almost exclusively on himself.
Jeff Sullivan - March 5, 2009
But there's an M & E in Team.
On a serious note RRS had a blog post about Ichiro last Sep. when all this was big news (as opposed to now?); and he seemed to really speak well of him.
Kunkoh - March 6, 2009
I wonder how much of this is Ichiro choosing not to associate
with mediocre players who, for reasons he (and I) will never understand, loathe him.
We all know Ichiro is definitely a leader in the traditional sense with Team Japan. Then there’s his legendary pep talks at the all-star games. When he’s on a team he believes in, or when he sees it might do something, he’s clearly not just a silent loner.
Ichiro’s been aloof and apart from others in the M’s clubhouse the past few years, but I still wonder how much of that has to do with his teammates and their self-appointed leaders (Guillen, maybe Beltre, Raul).
marc w - March 6, 2009
Those cliques are tearing the Mariners apart.
JI - March 6, 2009
I'm sure people used to love playing for the Mariners but nowadays they hardly ever want to sign with them anymore.
Robert - March 6, 2009
Mat Olkin on KIRO right now
on the HotStove show
msb - March 5, 2009
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