Lookout Landing

It could be but that doesn't make them right

I disagree

With the way Johjima has started, he’ll be the starting catcher all year as long as he’s healthy. Clement has a lot to work on and hopefully that’s what he’s doing down in Tacoma. Over a two-week period, he would be a marginal improvement at best over Johnson and Burke when you factor in defense and handling the pitchers. Also, Clement doesn’t have any spot at designated hitter or first base with Griffey and Branyan firmly entrenched and Chavez hitting, giving them no reason to put Griffey out there. If Clement has developments to make, Tacoma is the only place to do so.

And as far as Moore goes, it might not be presently fair to him, but his track to the majors is pretty well set. The Mariners seem plenty committed to him as their long-term solution at catcher. So, if a few weeks are going to further define Clement’s value to either of the Mariners or a potential trade partner at the expense of Moore seeing the full amount of playing time this year, I’m ok with that. Heck, it will probably save on the wear and tear on Moore

jameslcrockett - April 17, 2009 reply

Johjima is not healthy

Also: Estimate of Clement's glove vs. Johnson's

Assuming Clement is the worst defensive catcher ever, and Johnson is the best (he’s not, or even average), it’s around 0.25 runs over two weeks.

Also also: Johjima has started terribly. Catcher has been our second-worst batting position (behind Beltre at third)

Interesting...

not that I disagree with your point, but where are you finding accurate run values for catcher defense?

PissedMick - April 17, 2009 reply

Frankly, I'm shocked.

Graham wrote something.

Llewdor - April 17, 2009 reply

It's about Clement. Don't be too shocked.

Eyebrows - April 17, 2009 reply

I was biased towards Clement, too.

But I got over it.

How long will they let Clement struggle before they cut him loose?

section331 - April 17, 2009 reply

Define "cut loose"

Waivers? Probably won’t ever happen, because he’ll be traded before he ends up being a minor-league free agent (which is something like 6 years).

Traded? My bet is by July 30. He becomes the Jesse Foppert (busted prospect) to some other team’s Randy Winn (stretch drive veteran acquisition), as it were.

eponymous_coward - April 17, 2009 reply

It appears the FO assessment is ...

that Clement’s defensive skills are sufficiently below acceptable that they are not going to have him on the MLB club in that position. Thus the decision that it is more important to have continue to work on his catching at Tacoma than to have him try to polish his game at the MLB level. We may quibble with that assessment, but I think clearly what the Mariners have decided.

I doubt that they’ve given up on him as a catcher, or else they would be working him at another position. But for now it appears they’ve decided the overall good of the organization is that he continue to work on his catching at Tacoma.

Steve Nelson - April 17, 2009 reply

Yeah, this is how I see it.

Clement doesn’t want to be a 1B/DH type, and if you think the M’s roster is clogged at C, 1B/DH isn’t a picnic, either. I also think that given his injury history, he’s going to end up getting moved off of C anyway, if not for his defensive problems, then by injury.

This is just a mess, especially since I think Clement is ~ league average hitter, even at 1B (which makes him a clearly superior hitter at C), and the M’s need ~league average LH bats in their offense very, very badly (I’d say it’s a tossup between LH hitting and the bullpen as to which is their biggest hole right now)- but Clement is blocked by Branyan and Griffey at the other positions he could realistically play outside of C.

All this makes me conclude that Clement’s not long in this organization, because there’s huge, gaping holes he could fill today, and they won’t use him to fill them.

eponymous_coward - April 17, 2009 reply

Clement is done.

It’s about time we admitted it. If Johjima isn’t healthy, then we go with Rob Johnson or Jamie Burke. Clement has shown nothing, proven nothing, and shown absolutely no indication of doing so in the future. The fact that he can hit AAA pitching is, at this point, no longer even close to dispositive.

Our best option would be to dump him as soon as possible for the best we can get. If giving him playing time in the majors would help to increase his trade value, then that’s worth doing, but GMZ’s goal should be to sell him off as soon as possible.

Bias towards Clement at this point is the triumph of hope over experience.

Also: Burke gives us an extra option out of the bullpen!

I personally would prefer not to see that happen again

Now if we got Swisher, that’s a different story. He didn’t do too poorly against the Rays

Fuzz - April 17, 2009 reply

You're nuts.

This comment is completely fucking retarded

Clement has been given half a season of MLB ball with not much playing time. His defence sucks but catcher defence isn’t that important anyway.

In the last two years at Tacoma he’s posted wOBAs of .379 and .481 and you’re letting a shitty spring training and 30 plate appearances tell you he’s questionable as a AAA bat?

That’s idiocy.

See below. I was being completely tongue-in-cheek.

And yeah, I acknowledge that, reading it back a bit later, I didn’t signal that enough. My bad, not yours.

Although “fucking retarded?” C’mon Graham, I heard rumours you were mellowing out in your old age!

I was being completely tongue-in-cheek.

And yeah, I acknowledge that, reading it back a bit later, I didn’t signal that enough. My bad, not yours.

Clement's 2008 > Alex Rodriguez's 1995

Was A-Rod done?

Alex Rodriguez was 20 in 1995.

ok...

Edgar Martinez in 1989, then.

Would have taken PT from Presley.

That's a non sequitur.

We’re not debating the merits of Woody Woodward’s roster decisions. The point is that the same line of reasoning which concludes that Jeff Clement has no future would also conclude that, after his 1989 season, Edgar Martinez had no future.

This is a remarkably pessimistic opinion.

I mean,

Clement has shown nothing, proven nothing, and shown absolutely no indication of doing so in the future.

I have no idea how you can state that. That’s flat out wrong.

You could have said the same thing about BJ Upton

JI - April 17, 2009 reply

This is satire, right?

JI - April 17, 2009 reply

Yes, it was satire.

I realize now, looking back, that it doesn’t come off. Fuck, I’m usually better at this sort of thing.

That's some pretty dry satire.

I'm definitely in a pretty dry mood.

Lemon-sour pucker sort of mood.

Sounds like your feelings about the Nationals

are infecting your thoughts about the Mariners.

Jed MC - April 17, 2009 reply

What? That's not true.

.Taylor - April 17, 2009 reply

Oh. Whoops. Sorry eso.

.Taylor - April 17, 2009 reply

It doesn't help that he apparently can't hit AAA pitching anymore, either.

Interficium - April 17, 2009 reply

Yes 20 PA is sufficient to make that proclamation.

Did Clement do something to piss off the new management team?

I am very confused by all of this with regards to his handling. If I was Jeff I would be begging to be sent out to a different org.

Sec 108 - April 17, 2009 reply

I can't think of a better explanation than Steve Nelson's up the thread a bit.

I don’t agree with it, but I rea;;y can’t think of any other thought process that would lead them to the decisions they’ve made.

It does seem like the plausible explanation.

However, like Graham said, Johnson is no whiz behind the dish. I think he has a plus arm but his receiving skills are not impressing me at all.

Sec 108 - April 17, 2009 reply

Has he actually had any passed balls resulting in runners advancing yet?

It seems like he’s losing pitches all the time, but I can’t seem to remember any actual consequences. Of course I have a tendency to tune this sort of thing out, so there you go.

7th inning Wednesday

He had a flubbed pop-out yesterday as well.

The pop-up was right at the rail,

I’ll give him a tiny break on that one.

Thingray - April 17, 2009 reply

In-and-out of his glove, looked like he was afraid of the rail.

No-hit catcher’s gotta make that one.

What Graham said.

He blew a strikeout by Batista, adding a baserunner and losing an out in a high-leverage situation.

Teej - April 17, 2009 reply

I get the impression that Johnson's defense is pretty bad.

I guess maybe they know he doesn’t have a real future with the team and don’t want to screw with Clement’s head? I don’t know. I disagree with their decision, but I’m trying to figure out their rationale.

I'm starting to think Nichols Law of Inverse Catcher Defense applies here.

JI - April 17, 2009 reply

Seems like a safe bet.

Long shot theory, but it's only a theory.

Perhaps it’s a question of his ability to handle the pitching staff. Especially in light of the bullpen and it’s tendency to walk the world.

Pretty easy to handle the bullpen.

Put down one finger and wave it wildly around your crotchal area. That’ll suffice.

Yeah, calling endless fastballs seems to be key. Maybe Clement can't stick one finger out.

I’ve known people that can’t wink one eye at a time.

That certainly makes it harder to express subtlety to the dense.

Makes it a real pain in the ass to shoot something accurately as well.

Crap, that's getting too off topic, my apologies to the author.

And I was being serious floating the initial theory, GMZ and Wakamatsu both seem to lean towards the ‘make-up’ type intangibles in some of their choices (if Wak has any input at all). Something is going on with Clement and his progression.

He must be a big mean jerk.

The weird thing is they've had nothing but praise for his work ethic

Maybe Clement’s just an idiot or something

There has to be something we don't know about.

He is, at his absolute worst case, similar to Rob Johnson offensively. We have seen glimpses that this organization doesn’t favor upside-based moves within the standing roster. Sweeney over Shelton and any other catcher combo that doesn’t involve Clement.

Could it be the whole "he's paid his dues" thing?

I thought we had moved past that with GMZ, but maybe not.

Yeah

I don’t see what he could have done to escape the organization’s good graces.

Maybe he punched Wakamatsu in the face.

.Taylor - April 17, 2009 reply

Eh, lower forearm or mid forearm, what's the difference?

Plugging up a dike is also significantly more difficult

OlSalty - April 17, 2009 reply

STC

I don't know

Johnson has seemed to be getting along really well with the staff (with good results!)

.Taylor - April 17, 2009 reply

It's too bad he hates the bullpen

Beggars can't be choosers

.Taylor - April 17, 2009 reply

Johnson is expendable

Continuing the logic I started upthread, it would not serve the club’s long term interest to put Clement into a situation on the MLB roster where his chances of failing are too high, in their assessment. On the other hand, Johnson isn’t a real prospect, so if he washes out that isn’t nearly as great a loss.

Folks, this is a sharp departure from Bavasi’s rapid promotion, “let them flail so we can find out who the true competitors, failures be damned” philosophy. Bavasi was I believe rightly condemned for that approach. I think we should appreciate that the current team is taking a different approach, even if we do quibble about the details.

Steve Nelson - April 17, 2009 reply

I think it's different in this case

Clement’s been about 2 years in AAA, and has shown he destroys pitching there. His glove sucks, but it’s always sucked and probably always will… and in any case that’s not really an important factor. Clement can survive being worth -1.5 wins with the glove if he can be more than 1.5 wins better than the average catcher with the bat (not hard).

The aggressive promotion was bad, yes, but Clement (unlike many of our other prospects) earned his and now he isn’t getting it because the effect of his bad defence on the team is being exaggerated by the front office.

The problem is, the organization either believes or really wants to believe catching defense is vital to a team's success

This is essentially the entire logical reason why they’d be holding up Clement in AAA.

Unfortunately, to us, that really isn’t a logical reason because it’s becoming increasingly understood that catching defense is largely irrelevant in a catcher’s actual long-term value.

This whole situation just blows.

cwel87 - April 17, 2009 reply

No, we know that the running game/pb/WPs is "largely irrelevant"

but no one’s quantified the whole ‘calling a good game’ or other intangibles that are precisely the things that the org loves about Johnson. It may be that they’re irrelevant too, but that’s not what was quantified a year or so ago, and what WAS quantified has nothing to do with this decision.
This is decidedly not about the org thinking that Johnson can better prevent stolen bases than Clement. Hell, they’re probably aware that Johnson’s passed ball problems are the equal of Clement’s.

marc w - April 17, 2009 reply

Didn't the cERA experiments show that gamecalling etc. wasn't really that impactful?

I’m pretty sure that if it was, we’d have found it by now.

I don't think cERA was particularly well put-together, but yeah, even

Tango or Woolner’s stuff doesn’t seem to find a huge impact.

I’m still not 100% convinced that it’s just irrelevant, or that it’s irrelevant for all pitchers, but it may not be huge deal. Still, I think it’s a mistake to think that the Mariners have Clement in the minors because they’re REALLY concerned with things like PBs or CS% or something.

marc w - April 17, 2009 reply

Clement's older than Jose Lopez.

Clement be 26 in August, so he’s not even young for the league. This is basically Edgar Martinez Mk II- someone who’s being sent to AAA to work on his spelling or whatever. At this point, the organization needs to fish or cut bait, because I don’t think Clement is going to get better.

eponymous_coward - April 17, 2009 reply

I am just holding out hope that maybe they won't have him at Tacoma for long

OlSalty - April 17, 2009 reply

I would be willing to pay for a scoreboard message that says "Free Clement!"

Fin - April 17, 2009 reply

Would that be an advertisement to another team?

It wouldn't be free if you paid for it.

It's all about faith

“I’ve known Jamie from three different organizations,” Wakamatsu said. “I trust his ability to call a game and his relationship with the pitching staff.” – PI

Wak knows and trusts Jamie, not Jeff. Jeff has flailed under the new organization and until he at least does something at the AAA level, what would justify bringing him up, in Wak’s mind? I know it sucks for Jeff, but first impressions and perceptions are huge.

ralphie81 - April 17, 2009 reply

re: "two buckup catchers"

I think the org has always loved the way Johnson tells pitchers to buck up when they’re scuffling.

Seriously, Rob Johnson is a good defensive catcher, who’s only real weakness is… catching. Great arm, mostly accurate, etc., but what the org loves is that basically every pitcher loves throwing to him. I think it says something that both the Bavasi/Fontaine group and the Zduriencik/Grifol folks have absolutely loved what Johnson does. Yes, Graham’s totally right, that doesn’t make them right, but it’s interesting.

Also, I think Steve’s right that they want to make sure Clement’s in a position to succeed. He can’t succeed anywhere right now, because I think he’s got a confidence problem. I can’t imagine that essentially telling him that he’s the 4th catcher in the org (“but we LOOOOVE Adam Moore, by the way”) is a way to solve a confidence problem, but they apparently want him crushing AAA pitching again. They may also want him to have some positional flexibility when he comes back, though of course he’s yet to see any action at 1b.

marc w - April 17, 2009 reply

Maybe this is the M's attempt to showcase Rob Johnson

so they can trade his ass and make room for Adam Moore to advance and Jeffy to get right with his bat and get promoted back to the bigs.

johnbai - April 17, 2009 reply

This type of theory gets presented a lot.

Has the team ever actually employed the “showcase sucky player so that some sucker trades for him” strategy? I hope not, because it’s a pretty terrible strategy.

The premise that Rob Johnson is a sucky player is questionable.

Perhaps

but is he really going to wow people into suddenly become interested in a trade?

If he shows he's capable of holding down a backup role right now, then it's possible.