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Lookout Landing

Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 8-5
Rays: 5-8

SUMMARY

MARINERS RAYS EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-17.1 (26th) 3.5 (13th) TAM!
FIELDING (UZR)
8.4 (1st) 6.2 (2nd) sea
ROTATION (pRAA)
15.3 (2nd) -10.3 (26th) SEA!!!
BULLPEN (pRAA)
5.3 (4th) -3.9 (24th) SEA!!
OVERALL(RAA)
11.9 -4.5 Seattle








GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs Andy Sonnanstine
Game 2: Chris Jakubauskus vs Jeff Niemann
Game 3: Felix Hernandez vs James Shields

The Rays rotation has been horrid to start the year, with all five regulars pitching below average. It's early of course, but Sonnanstine has been missing fewer bats and missing the zone more often than last season. He's been lucky so far to have only given up a single home run.

Niemann never has been much of a strike thrower and just like last year, when he hits the majors, his ability to miss bats drops markedly along with his ground ball rate. At 26, he strikes me as just a place holder for David Price.

Shields was the real deal last year but early into 2009, he's lost two points on his swinging strikes which have transfered almost directly to batters putting pitches in play more frequently. That's led to a drop in strikeout rate. Shields' line drive rate is also up, not a good sign ever, but made worse by the higher percentage of pitches thrown ending up in play.

Star-divide

Endy Chavez and Russell Branyan are our only two hitters above average so far this year. Carlos Silva and Roy Corcoran are our only two pitchers below average so far this year (defense independent even!). Our defense rocks. We are on pace to allow just 561 runs. We are on pace to score just 685. The 685 is actually believable.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Fat Scotch Style Ale
Silver City Brewing Company. Silverdale, WA

I've had this a few times and in a long enough gap of time that I essentially got a fresh look at it, and both tastes were pleasing and revealed a malty sweetness laden down with some fruity notes in the aroma that gave it an interesting character.

0 recs  |  66 comments

Comments

Any update on Upton's availability for this series? I thought I heard

he had a sore hammy or something.

We got a good break missing Kazmir and Garza, and drawing Sonnastine and Niemann. Not to mention the Rays pen is scuffling. Good time to be playing them. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t take 2 of 3 here.

Upton's going to play but he does have a tight quad.

Percival/Wheeler are awful and Balfour is having an issue finding the strikezone, otherwise the pen has been fine.

I live in such fear of the inevitable home runs
Now you know how it feels to be a Jered Weaver fan.
That Jered Weaver, always living in his brother's shadow.
Jered Weaver fans are in denial

about his home run tendencies.

I'll be at game 1 tomorrow

7th row for $20, fuck yeah

If a pitcher has a hard time finding the strike zone

doesn’t that usually mean he’s going to shut us out?

That was the 2008 theory, at least.
Has our approach changed?

With Branyan on the bench, I don’t expect to see a lot of deep counts and walks.

Ugh enough with Rays

We get it. We play them tomorrow. But this is a Mariners blog, let’s start acting like it.

Shut up Bitch
Now Wednesday looks like a very good match up.
Yeah makes that day game really tempting.

Too bad the weather is gonna be sucky. Weather sucks for Wednesday too.

True, but that is what the roof is for.

Also, I noticed the game started at like 3. That is a good thing, because I went to a 1 o’clock game on a Wednesday, and the traffic afterwards (the Mariners were playing the Red Sox, so it was a full house) was just absolutely horrible.

Branyan?

any word on his injury? how bad it is?

Hoped to be back for Tuesday. No definitive word yet.
In 2004, Jeff Niemann was the best prospect in perhaps the most loaded college rotation ever.

In 2004, a 25 year old Chris Jakubauskas was getting lit up by Frontier league hitters as a long-reliever for the Florence Freedom (Florence is in Kentucky; I had no idea).

In 2009, it’s quite likely that Jakubauskas will get more wins and finish with a better tRA/FIP/ERA/whatever than Niemann/Humber/Townsend.

This is hilarious, weird and beautiful.

Florence is Shaun Alexander's place of origin.

The only way I’ve heard of it

Florence Kentucky is famous for the Florence Mall/Florence Y'all Watertower dispute
Nimman will be better
Beltre should start hitting at some point

It is a contract year.

Well, he has been nothing short of Awesome at defense.
I wonder if people realize that n=1 doesn't make a pattern
I tried making a neat looking pattern using n=1

But when I previewed it, it looked jumbled and gross and would only be funny if I were an ASCII artist

Did you know that Fett always messes up reply when his comment has an equal sign in it?
I guess was assuming players perform better in contract years.

Perhaps I am mistaken. I wasn’t making the assumption based on Beltre’s 2004, though, just thought this was the case for players on average.

Well then nevermind
Graham's claim != true
Am I reading wOBA right?

The M’s are currently hitting the ball as a team at a level barely above replacement level?

That does suck.

But I think if the Mariners are to compete, it would be the defense+pitching that carries the team this year.

Sounds about right to me.
Endy Chavez's .452 BABIP

Is likely unsustainable the whole season.

You mean he won't put up a season as good as Willie Mays best?

Lame.

I was expecting a "HAWKS!" at the end.

I hope we add to Sonnanstine’s home run total tonight.

I have shamed my ancestors
M's GM Jack Zduriencik and Rays' GM Andrew Friedman

Yea, so Larry Stone has some amazing content with load of quotes from these two guys:

Column: What will the Rays do for an encore?

Blog: Lots more good stuff from Tampa Bay Rays’ GM Andrew Friedman and Jack Zduriencik

On a side note, not too long ago Stone checked in with Kevin Towers (Padres GM). Wonderful stuff.

Lineup!

RF Ichiro
LF Endy Chavez
DH Ken Griffey Jr.
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Mike Sweeney
2B Jose Lopez
C Rob Johnson
CF Franklin Gutierrez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

LHP Jarrod Washburn

Yuni is starting. I would have bet against that.

DAMN
Well I have someone to boo
Holy shit.

Sweeney still alive and batting 5th, Yuniesky not getting rectal splinters. I’m not loving the Don Wakamatsu Experience so far.

Russ Branyan still isn't healthy?

Awww crap

I'd rather play Loafie at first and Cedeno at second than Sweeney and Lopez.

As much as it would be nice to not keep sending subliminal messages to Lopez to continue getting lazier, watching Sweeney and Griffey hit in the heart of the order decreases my quality of life.

I'm a believer in hiring slow, and firing fast.

If someone isn’t producing, cut ‘em. At LEAST bench is arse. Nothing would get Yuni to produce like a little pine ridin’

Maybe he's just slowly hiring Cedeno...?

Please, Wak, please. :o

That certainly is a possibility.

Yuni obviously has the talent to perform well. He just choo choo chooses to be a lazy bum. If I were Wak, I might not want to hastily put Cedeno in the spot and watch them both fail. I can see how he might want to slowly work Cedeno into the position to make sure he is capable of handling the mental aspect of being a starter. Also, this gives Yuni all the chances he can to see that his job is in danger, and see if that wakes his glove up.

Yuni won't see that his job is in danger if he is inserted in the starting lineup every single night.
I guess I came off wrong

I was speculating that if Wak put Cedeno in from time to time Yuni might start playing to his ability if he felt like he was replaceable.

I think we all agree with that

Hence, tonight would be a good night to have Cedeno in there…he’s only played 1 in the young season at SS

1 game, grb
Should we call Tonya Harding to help get Cedeno in there?

I hear she isn’t doing all that much these days…

I approve of this idea.

Would solve our Yuniesky-related problems for the foreseeable future.

Hire Bengie Molina, fire Michael Bourn.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Seriously why is he still starting
Yuni gives good reach-a-rounds?
Another reason to for Wak to keep him close in the dugout.
Yuni starting.

Thought it was a toss-up actually. Yuni is going to get enough rope to hang himself with. In fairness, there really wasn’t much talk about addressing the Yuni situation from the staff.

We’ll see how it goes.

Also,

he has been hitting more consistently than pretty much anyone else on the team save Ichiro and Endy. He’s a free-swinger and that’s frustrating, yes, but he also has a 23.7%LD. With the rest of the line up slumping the way they have, it can’t be easy for Wak to just go ahead and bench one of the only bats in the lineup that hasn’t been struggling.

A's losing already.

Shame it’s to the Yankees.

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