Fun With Numbers
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2009 2:56 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
- The Mariners currently rank #1 in pitching runs above average (pRAA), at +20.6. They are narrowly ahead of the Royals (+20.3) and way ahead of the Rangers (-24.6) and the Indians (-28.6). The rotation ranks #2, behind the Royals, and the bullpen ranks #4, behind the A's, Mets, and Red Sox.
- The main reason the Mariners rank so high is because of their 3.9% - 3.9% - HR/FB rate against. The starters have only allowed five home runs, and the bullpen has yet to allow its first. This is going to regress in a hurry (9.8% last year, 8.4% in 2007, 10.7% in 2006, 9.9% in 2005, 11.0% in 2004, 9.9% in 2003, and 10.3% in 2002), so the offense needs to turn it on if the team wants to avoid a nasty slap in the face.
- Our bullpen has a lot of people who throw a lot of balls. There's a reason some people like to call it the Ministry Of Silly Walks. And yet, somehow, the bullpen's strike rate of 62.4% is the fifth-best in the league, and its Zone% ranks #9. If you thought we were unreliable, all you need is a quick glance at the Rangers to understand how good we have it, relative to almost everyone else.
- According to UZR, our defense is on pace to finish the season at +105, which would represent a 126-run change from last year. Our outfield alone is on pace to be twice as good as last year's league leader.
- Four games ago, our offense had the lowest line drive rate in the league. Since then it has very quickly scooted up to 19% (yet we only scored nine runs over the duration. Huh). It's good to know that we can make a lot of decent contact, because it helps to offset the lack of walks, but if we want anyone to take this offense seriously we need Beltre to get going and Branyan to get healthy in the worst way imaginable. Otherwise we're just going to be patching together a whole lot of singles.
Griffey, Beltre, Branyan, Lopez..
We can’t afford any one of these players to not reach their projections.
Rudy4three - April 20, 2009
Don't forget Ichiro
Ezzra - April 20, 2009
You know we're a legit playoff contender in the West right now, right?
Matthew - April 20, 2009
I don't want to hear that from anyone.
Faux - April 20, 2009
"You know what 4 singles equal,
a motherfucking run."
Does anyone know the source of that quote?
appleshampoo - April 20, 2009
Something from Royals Review a long time ago
Graham MacAree - April 20, 2009
Goddammit.
Matthew - April 20, 2009
4 minutes!
Matthew - April 20, 2009
I knew of this and was racing against the clock for some reason
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2009
I don't know how I am supposed to, or how I actually, feel about this.
Matthew - April 20, 2009
...to save the world?
CHEAP ROUNDS AT NORM'S - April 20, 2009
Hat tip to Kermit for the Ministry of Silly Walks moniker, by the way
But that is a bit surprising to see that we’re ok as far as strike rate goes. Be interesting to see how that figures itself out as the season carries along
tootthekazoo - April 20, 2009
It seems relievers in general throw fewer strikes than starters
so we should probably hold them to a different standard.
Jeff Sullivan - April 20, 2009
The site header seems much more applicable right now
Kirsten Schlewitz - April 21, 2009
Agreed.
JI - April 21, 2009
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