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Lookout Landing

9-5, Chart

4_21_medium

Biggest Contribution: Jarrod Washburn, +17.8%
Biggest Suckfest: Ichiro, -9.9%
Most Important AB: Johnson triple, +19.2%
Most Important Pitch: Longoria double, -11.5%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +32.1%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +11.0%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +6.9%
(What is this chart?)

1 recs  |  78 comments

Comments

Angels won, but no ground lost!
coolstandings says

We’ve got more than a 25% chance to win the division. We’re second-most likely now.
And they factor in the Vidro stink of ’08, while the Angels get credit for Texeira.

No no no we do not need more bunting practice Wak stop bunting so much
When did Washburn get so good?
He didn't
He is pitching far better than last year.
You can thank the improved defense for that.
How did the defense help him post a 3-year stikeout high exactly?
He pitched well today, for sure.

But he’s got a BABIP of .203 and is stranding more than 90% (!!!) of his runners.*

*Fangraphs numbers do not include today’s start, though.

Wash will sustain this.

Griffey will hit 50 HR.
A cure for death will be discovered.

Dude, his two-seamer was nearly invincible this evening.

I hope it continues.

As do I

My eyes tell me he looks a bit different this year but my heart just isn’t ready to believe in Jarrod Washburn. He has so poisoned me that I can’t help but feel this is some sort of mirage.

I'm with you.

I’m not only behind your couch at the moment, I also hope that this is a new found tool for continued success. If he maintains this, we’re in good shape.

Rob Johnson loves the two-seamer.
And a cure for death might be nice.

Corco might need to have this in his back pocket.

And the babip and strand rate affect his FIP and tRA how exactly?

Which, I should mention are 3.25 and 3.63 before this game.

I'm not trying to be a jerk about it or anything, it's just that pretty much every meaningful stat says that he's performing better this year.

Low BABIP and high strand rate mean he’s getting lucky, yes, but those are only relevant warning signs if you’re looking no deeper than ERA and WHIP, which I would assume we all are. They have no relevance to his FIP/tRA, which are far better than his career averages right now. I’m not commenting on whether it’s sustainable or not, I’m just saying that through his first 3 starts this year demonstrate an improved pitcher compared to the previous versions of him.

I can agree with that.

He’s doing a wonderful job of not walking anybody, which you can’t take away from him. He’s definitely pitching better than he has before. The HR/BIA is unsustainable, though. He’s still giving up fly balls at his normal rate, and those are probably going to start going over the fence more.

But I’m with you on your main point: He’s pitching better than Jarrod Washburn.

I am Jarrod Washburn's unsustainable HR/FB rate.

If you look at his 2002 and 2005 seasons, his best years, you’ll also see they were his lowest HR/FB rate.

This is quite poetic.
Actually he had a lower HR/FB in 2007 than 2005.

But not by much.

Definitely pitching better than Jarrod Washburn.

But, we should probably trade him while he keeps pitching like this, because when it all comes down to it, he’s still Jarrod Washburn. Who knows how sustainable this is. The only big improvement I’m noticing is that he’s getting more swings at balls out of the zone, and FAR more swinging strikes on balls out of the zone. If that’s truly the product of his new grip or whatever he was talking about in the offseason then it should stick around, which will make his low BB% and high K% more sustainable, and I would imagine improved movement would cut down on his LD% as well and possibly increase his GB% too.

Or it’s all SSS. I’d have to look at his pitchFX more closely to be able to say anymore.

This is my rationale.
That changeup he said he developed might not be all him just blowing smoke this time

He was aided by a wide strike zone, but my goodness – that was a ridiculous pitching performance.

and a huge strike zone

it helped the other side too to be sure. but it certainly makes both pitching performances look better than they were.

Total Contribution by Opposition: +6.9%

Multiply that by 10 for Joe Maddon’s insane positioning of Gabe Kapler.

Then you have to start giving credit to Wak

for his positioning of Yuni

The correct position for Yuni is the bench.
A bench in Santa Clara, Cuba?
"Credit"?

Yuni wanting to cozy up to Beltre on the left side isn’t nearly as insane as Kapler playing short second base.

My dreams of Jarrod Washburn winning the Cy Young with our outfield become more likely every start

When he strikes out 9, that makes it even awesomer

His first 9 strikeout game since 2006.
Of course the three guys we've been saying should be replaced

are the three hitting stars of tonight’s game.

I said it in the game thread

but I want to say it again.

We won a game in which our numbers 1-4 hitters had zero hits. zero.

pitching and defense is awesome.

I might believe 9 K's against the Angels

But the Rays?

The Rays strike out a lot.
(Second in the AL this year, second in the AL last year.)
Apparently they do, yikes even to Jarrod Washburn
They also have a fairly regular tendancy to hit the shit out of the ball from time to time.
We also have a fairly awesome outfield

It’s going to suck when they start going over the fence.

Luckily we didn't build the new Yankee Stadium.
As do most teams.

The Rays offense just really isn’t all that amazing. It’s not like they’re hurting — I’d call them a little bit above average, based on last year’s runs scored and what they’ve done so far this year — but run prevention is what makes them a contender in a brutal division.

I was at the game

So what actually did we get for Washburn?

65,000 cases of Moutain Dew
Seriously stop joking

Who did we get in return for him?

The Twins reconsidered

and gave us Boof Bonser afterall.

You can't handle the Boof.
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooo

f.

The limited edition Sour grape Mountain Dew in the number of 149 cases. They are stored in a secret place.

Wait for the phone call. You will be advised to scale the Space Needle. From there, you will find the clue to your next endeavor to find the bomber.

A mouthfull of MLB love.
A fucking .643 winning percentage!
WHY IS JAROD WASHBURN STILL A SEATTLE MARINER AS OF THIS MOMENT???
Because he's a winner.

And we need wins.

THIS ISN'T FUNNY

WHY IS HE STILL HERE? HE STRUCK OUT NINE OPPOSING BATTERS. IN A SINGLE GAME. WHY IS HE STILL HERE???

Because...

This is still one of my favs.

Even though I liked it better for Wilk.

GRIFFEY!?!?!
You sound like the Jackass sitting behind me tonight

Every five seconds he was screaming “GRIFFEY!!!” regardless of the situation. I get that people are excited for his return but it woulld be nice if they didn’t have to ruin the game for others attending it.

I had the same situation tonight.

So frustrating.

Yes, irrational enthusiasm also causes me great consternation.
Was it sarcastic?
Morrow needs a better come-into-the-game presentation

I guess he has to earn it. But thinking back to late ‘06-’08, when we were up going into the 9th, the place was just electric with Thunderstruck and JJ coming in. Today, Morrow came out to RATM’s “Bulls on Parade,” which is a good song, no doubt, but it was just like any other pitching change.

Let’s hope that by midway through the season if he’s pushing 15-20 saves we have some good stuff going on, and some crowd support.

Also, I met the man, the legend, the Robert tonight.

Man, 5 games in a week.

Lucky.

Nah I didn't hit up any of the Detroit games

And I’m done for this homestand. Would like to see Felix pitch, but I can’t skip out on work this time around.

I felt like a god damn celebrity tonight.
Why?
Ah. I missed appleshampoo's last sentence. Never mind.
You've done a great job

building up this “internet crazy guy” persona over the past couple of years.

internet?

That’s the nicest thing I’ve heard all week

If I had actually seen you throw up on an electric fence, I'd be 100% convinced that you are real.

But meeting you for a few hours was enough to push it to 90%.

Just beware his hobo legionaires
Thunderstruck is just such a good song to come in to.

Great to clap/sing along with because everyone knows it, and even if you don’t know it the part that they play is ridiculously easy to pick up. The build up makes it even cooler, and “You’ve been…. thunderstruck!” is just about as good of a strikeout metaphor as you’re gonna find. Granted I don’t know what part of Bulls on Parade they’ve been playing, but it’s just not as good. Thunderstruck is one of the best I can think of.

Plus, JJ’s a 6’5", 250lb behemoth with a fiery red goatee. Brandon’s a 6’2", 195lb diabetic.

Hey Graham

It was cool to meet you tonight at the game. Stop by again, I’ll be in those seats most of the year.

Scott

Nice meeting you too, Scott.

And whoever was with you (friend, girlfriend, girl you picked up on the bus?) and her freely given out high fives.

For everyone who is jacked for Wash, remember this...

Jeff Weaver had a stretch where he gave up 4 earned runs over 27.2 innings (4 games) during his shit season. Just saying.

Washburn is a better pitcher than Weaver.

That said, I don’t think anyone here believes that Washburn will not heavily regress.

God I loved Jeff Weaver's 2007 season.

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