Over the past three seasons, the Mariners have pretty consistently averaged ~1440 innings pitched and ~2550 fly balls + line drives allowed.
Over the past three seasons, Jarrod Washburn has pretty consistently averaged ~2.075 fly balls + line drives per inning.
Let's say that Jarrod Washburn throws 180 innings in 2009, with the same kind of batted ball distribution. What kind of effect can we expect our outfield defense to have on his RA (relative to average)?
Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro, +40 (estimate): +5.86 run benefit to Washburn, reduces RA by 0.29
Chavez/Griffey (or Wlad)/Gutierrez/Ichiro, +20 (estimate): +2.93 run benefit to Washburn, reduces RA by 0.15
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A lot of people out there are hoping that our defense makes Washburn look so good that, should we desire to trade him, another GM will be fooled into giving up something of value. The defense won't hurt, but for every one part defense, we're going to need five parts luck.
0 recs | 26 comments
Everyone's peeing on our sunshine these days
abender20 - April 3, 2009
Park, defence, regression, luck?
It’s not totally out there.
Graham MacAree - April 3, 2009
That's true, but those 0.15-0.3 runs off his numbers will also stack on any small sample size deviation
It’s quite possible that halfway through the year he will look like a halfway decent pitcher.
OlSalty - April 3, 2009
I consider that luck
Jeff Sullivan - April 3, 2009
He'd have to put together a streak better than his Twinterest-inspiring run from last year to get takers, right?
abender20 - April 3, 2009
I'm sure there will be takers as long as he's healthy and normal
it’s just that I don’t think there will be takers willing to surrender real value unless something crazy happens.
Jeff Sullivan - April 3, 2009
A low 4s ERA isn't totally out of the question
That’ll have value at the deadline
Graham MacAree - April 3, 2009
I hope the Royals contend
Jeff Sullivan - April 3, 2009
Horacio Ramirez and Washburn on the same staff together with Jose Guillen in the outfield would be just horrible.
abender20 - April 3, 2009
It's shocking what happens when you go out of your way to pick up the worst parts of a mediocre team
Jeff Sullivan - April 3, 2009
I wish they didn't have Miguel Olivo.
abender20 - April 3, 2009
And Bloomquist at shortstop.
Wilder. - April 3, 2009
And there is a ridiculous amount of parity (NL especially) this year
So it’s likely there will be a good number of teams in the mix at the deadline for starting pitching.
OlSalty - April 3, 2009
I did neglect to factor in the regime change, and that has to be a big difference with respect to tradeability.
The demand for Washburn should be higher based solely on what should be a much more reasonable expectation of return.
abender20 - April 3, 2009
It does require luck to be on our side too
But it requires a smaller amount of luck than if the defense wasn’t as good. I don’t really expect it to happen but for some reason teams were interested in him last year even as he sucked so who knows if he seems to show “improvement”.
OlSalty - April 3, 2009
Personally, I'm hoping for Defenestration...
PositivePaul - April 3, 2009
Won't the poor patrons of the Hit It Here Cafe be upset with that?
abender20 - April 3, 2009
I think they'd be more upset if he survived...
Slurvey - April 3, 2009
Of course, our OF defense last year was by no means close to average
so the improvement of his RA over 2008 will be greater than the numbers you listed.
Matthew - April 3, 2009
Well, sure
but his RA last year was over five.
Jeff Sullivan - April 3, 2009
Thanks Debbie.
Matthew - April 4, 2009
Just to be retardedly optimistic on a crappy sports day in Seattle.
What if he has another 2002 where he gets a ridiculous number around 2.5 fly balls + line drives per inning.
What if he also has a stupidly lucky 6% HR/FB.
What if he pitches at a 200 inning pace and has logged 100IP by July 1st.
What if our outfiled plays at 30<x40 pace.
I see four big what ifs that could possibly happen if he decides to pitch up a bit more and gets lucky regarding home runs.
You won’t pull off the heist of the century, but you get to shed a bit of salary during a year with lower attendance. Also you definitely can get more value back than whatever you get from someone else signing him after the season.
Sec 108 - April 3, 2009
Well the strang thing is....
We had two teams interested in Washburn last year despite the defense we were running out before and despite the fact that they would be taking on a year and a half worth of his salary.
ThundaPC - April 3, 2009
I'm no longer convinced they were actually offering value
Jeff Sullivan - April 3, 2009
They were not
but they were offering a lot more salary-relief than they will have to pony up this summer, so maybe that will count for something.
Matthew - April 4, 2009
I am ashamed to say that the Cardinals were one of them
vivaelpujols - April 4, 2009
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