I guess I'll come right out and admit it - right now I'm finding it hard to get excited about the Mariners. Watching them win on Monday was enjoyable, but I didn't see God, and then these last two nights, while the losses have been disappointing, both of them rolled right off my back. Seeing Morrow, Batista, and Silva throw away two games - these are things that you'd think would evoke a visceral reaction, but instead I've been able to move from MLB.tv to the Win Expectancy chart after the final play without skipping a beat. I haven't cursed once.
It's not that I've lost any interest. I'm still every bit as interested as I've always been. Being able to watch Felix, and Gutierrez, and Jakubauskas, and Bedard, and everybody else...I've enjoyed watching them and trying to pick out little strengths and weaknesses based on what I see. So it's not that the games aren't fun. I quite enjoy on-the-fly observation and evaluation.
But the raw emotion isn't there. The living and dying by every pitch isn't there. From Felix to Gutierrez's homer to Griffey's homer to last night's meltdown to Silva's inadequacy today, I've had ample opportunity to wind up the crazy machine that lives in my temples, but still, nothing. Nothing more than a couple claps, three howls, and five seconds of holding my head in my hands. It's weird, and it feels a lot like last summer, even though this is the very definition of a brand new year.
I dunno. Maybe I'm still getting getting accustomed to having baseball season back. Maybe it's hard to balance being a fan and an analyst. Maybe I'm paying too much attention to the game threads. There are any number of possible reasons why this is how I feel right now. But while I know the emotion is inside of me somewhere, I have to wonder if the real reason it has yet to surface is because my brain still thinks this team is bad. I still feel the same kind of emotional indifference that I did under Bavasi, and though I know we have newer and better people running the show these days, I wonder if my brain won't care until they generate results. Until they prove that they really are going to make this team relevant again. If that's the case, it's not something I'm proud of, but it's also something I can understand. At this point, when it comes to baseball, I'm sure my brain has the trust issues of a battered wife.
At the end of the day, you can't force emotional investment. You have to let it develop organically. So with that in mind, I'm kind of playing the waiting game with my own head. Is winning the only thing I need for the caring to come back? I don't know. But I'd sure love to find out.
- I'm guessing Carlos Silva wants 2009 to represent a fresh start more than pretty much anybody else, so that probably wasn't the season debut he had in mind. He barely had a chance to work up a sweat before Minnesota put four on the scoreboard courtesy of a pair of two-run homers, and once you've allowed four runs through your first ten batters faced, it's hard to salvage an outing. Silva was able to make it through five innings, but he looked like exactly the same guy we saw a year ago (were we supposed to expect something different?), and the six runs the Twins charged to his ERA wound up being enough to win the game.
Both home runs came on changeups, which is interesting, since Silva only threw four of them. He also only threw ten sliders, which means that, of his 98 pitches, 84 (84!) were fastballs. Over the last few seasons, Silva's gone away from his fastball a little bit in order to throw more changes, but tonight was something straight out of his 2005 game log, a season in which he threw 84% heaters. It's worth pointing out that 2005 was also the best season of Silva's career. In case you wanted a silver lining.
The negatives tonight were the home runs, the 1.5 swinging strikes (one was a checked swing that went too far), and the command that, while decent, wasn't good enough for Silva to be effective. He only started 14 of 24 hitters with strikes, and all of the damage was done after he had fallen behind in the count. For Silva to be any kind of decent, he needs to attack the strike zone like he attacks [deleted, fat joke]. He didn't do that tonight, and he paid for it.
The lone positive is that he generated 13 grounders on 20 balls in play, for a groundball rate better than any he posted in any individual start last season. Silva used to be more of a groundballer than we saw in 2008, so his being able to recover some of that would be a big step on the road back towards respectability. It's something.
All in all, this was a start that would've fit in pretty well with Silva's season a year ago, but being that I'm trying to let everyone else start from scratch, I'm going to go easy here. Do better, God dammit. We're boned if you don't.
- I haven't seen Kevin Slowey very much, so maybe I'm missing something, but from what I saw tonight, he doesn't throw the most impressive slider. At least not as far as pitches capable of missing bats are concerned. It has a decent amount of movement, but the bulk of that is along a horizontal plane, as the pitch doesn't have very much vertical drop. The one he threw to Jose Lopez in the fourth was a huge mistake. Where a normal slider would've broken down and stayed around the inner black, Slowey's sat and spun right into Lopez's wheelhouse, eventually ending up floating in a sea of white people beyond the left field fence. I'm glad Lopez took it deep but honestly, given the pitch, I would've been embarrassed if he didn't.
- Russell Branyan's homer, however, wasn't a gimme at all. Branyan got himself behind 0-2, but he worked the count full and got a belt-high changeup off the outside corner. And where you'd think a changeup off the outside corner would be a bad pitch to swing at on a full count, Branyan's a big guy, and the pitch allowed him to get his arms fully extended. Destructive things happen when Branyan gets his arms fully extended. The ball easily cleared the dead center fence as the first of what ought to be several mammoth home runs that come off his bat. He really is exactly as advertised, perhaps moreso than any other player in baseball.
Overall it was a good night for Branyan at the plate, if a standard one. He hit a home run, struck out twice, worked two 0-2 counts full, and drew a walk in a nine-pitch at bat that saw him foul off three pitches and take another two close ones. He will not have a single boring at bat against a right-hander all season long.
- In the third inning, Griffey yanked a pitch into the right-center gap and decided it was in his best interests to stay on first base. Were I a new manager that alone would've been all the evidence I'd need to never start him in the outfield ever again.
- Ronny Cedeno, meanwhile, looked pretty comfortable out in left, gliding easily around to record four putouts. If the Mariners end up competing for anything, I'd probably rather have him out there when one of the starters needs a rest than Wlad or Griffey, lack of power at the plate be damned. Once you get the sweet taste of defense on your tongue you never want to brush your teeth.
- Chris Jakubauskas made his Major League debut today in relief of Silva and I don't know that it could have gone any better. There wasn't the slightest hint of nervousness - he just came right in and got ahead of his first batter before striking him out on five pitches. He went on to work a pair of scoreless innings, flashing a 90mph fastball, a changeup with a 10mph speed differential, and a curve that, believe it or not, moved more than Bedard's. It's that last thing that took me by surprise, because I had no idea he had it in him. It looked good and it looked sharp. We'll have to see how well he can command it over subsequent outings, but knowing that he has a potentially effective breaking ball to pair with his solid change makes me more willing to consider that he's a little more than simply replacement-level. At least out of the bullpen. It was a stellar debut.
- Two other things that I liked about Jakubauskas' appearance:
(1) he worked with a quick, steady tempo. I love a pitcher who works quickly more than I can express. It's more enjoyable to watch, and it seems so much more conducive to settling into a groove. If you're feeling good, get the ball and throw the ball. Think about it. How many mound slugs do you see winning Cy Youngs? I can already feel myself falling in love.
(2) he pulled off a motherfucking daylight play. With two on and two down in the bottom of the seventh, he glanced back at Michael Cuddyer and, when Yuni broke for second, wheeled around and threw a perfect strike to the left of the base to end the inning. Who does that? Who pulls off a God damned daylight play in the Major Leagues? It's so delightfully high school. Pitcher pickoffs at first are cool and unusual, but pitcher pickoffs at second are another thing entirely. Tonight Ryan Feierabend sleeps with Lady Obsolete.
- Not to be outdone, Mark Lowe might've thrown the inning of his life. Coming off a miserable Spring Training, Lowe set down all three batters he faced while generating seven swinging strikes on seven sliders. Seven out of seven. I don't know if he could've completely alleviated people's concerns any faster. Pitchers talk about how much better their stuff feels once they get out of the Arizona air, and after seeing Lowe dominate today and Corcoran pitch well last night, I'm beginning to think that staging bullpen competitions in Peoria is a pretty fucking stupid idea.
- I wonder how Tim Wakefield feels knowing he throws his fastball as fast as Chris Jakubauskas throws intentional balls.
Early one tomorrow, as Jarrod Washburn goes up against whatever has taken residence beneath Glen Perkins' chin.

Might I suggest a season of heartbreak in order to cure your ills?
Robert - April 8, 2009
They'll need to build me up first
Jeff Sullivan - April 8, 2009
Worst case scenario you could switch to the Padres and claim how they were your team all along.
Robert - April 8, 2009
Wait'll the Nats and Ms pass on Strasburg.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
Regarding Slowey
I’m about the worst person in the world at pitch recognition, so I don’t really even try to judge individual pitches, but…
Scouting reports about Slowey have been incredibly conflicted for his entire career. You’ve got one set of scouts who don’t see any outstanding out-pitch, and figure he’s a 5th starter. Then you’ve got another set of starts who think his makeup (or whatever) is off the charts, love his command and knowledge of pitching and they think he could be an ace. So I guess it doesn’t seem terribly surprising that his slider didn’t stand out tonight, though judging by past results, it’s probably not usually that bad, either. I don’t see Slowey ever being a whole lot better than he was last year, but a 120 tRA+ seems pretty satisfactory for a starting pitcher if he can stay healthy.
I’ll be interested to see if you have any thoughts on Glen Perkins after tomorrow. By the numbers, he seems pretty bad, so I keep waiting for him to totally implode, but some scouts really like him. I don’t get it.
ubelmann - April 9, 2009
I'm here.
Why is he the Twins 3rd starter? Seems like a #2 pitcher before Blackburn to me?
Not Loving Batista - April 9, 2009
The rotation got messed up when Baker went down with an injury 5 days before the season started
The rotation was supposed to be Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn.
ubelmann - April 9, 2009
I stopped paying attention for a bit and missed the Lowe inning, damnit.
I hope they have the archives up in the morning.
Goose - April 9, 2009
Maybe it's the realization that the Mariners are a for-profit company...
…and their primary objective is the bottom line. As you sit and reflect on all those years you’ve spent exhausting your time and energy, you suddenly discover that the object of your emotional investment is just another financial venture for some rich dude(s), who only wish to exploit your fanaticism for monetary gain.
And that’s when you realize you’re no better than the jackasses sitting in the stands at Daytona with caps and t-shirts emblazoned with the Chevy bowtie and DuPont logo. Is it any wonder a small part of your passion dies?
Maybe I need to lay off the hashish…
Frosty Raptor - April 9, 2009
Buzzkill man..
Intellectually, I know that, but I would rather not think of that. I just want to enjoy my team.
Fin - April 9, 2009
I've never bought this argument.
Yes, baseball is a business but it’s a business in the same way that movie studios or record labels are a business. By and large the owners want to put a good product on the field. For one thing it will help them make more money going forward. For another most people that own baseball teams love (or at least like) baseball and want their teams to be successful competitively as well as financially.
Aaron Campeau - April 9, 2009
And its not like they have ever not been a business.
msb - April 9, 2009
There's been a few times I've wished I was a kid and didn't know anything about how the business side of it all works.
Kind of takes some of the shine off the penny.
Kermit. - April 9, 2009
I flipped out last night during the Morrowdown, but I've felt somewhat similar.
I’m still thrilled baseball is here, but my emotional investment has been less than years past, at least so far. And I think that for me it’s the opposite of what you give as a possible explanation; I don’t have super high expectations this year, but I also don’t feel the same soul-sucking dread that I felt last season. I think it’s pretty obvious that the team is headed in a much better direction, and so I’m more willing to put up with a few bumps in the road because it feels like it won’t last forever.
Aaron Campeau - April 9, 2009
I haven't seen one game this year :(
JI - April 9, 2009
This team has always struck me as similar to 2006's version
Where we will have a decent mid season run that will be both random, short lived and only the most observant fans will remember it years from now. The potential will be there for the coming seasons and at least this way we can’t trade Doyle and Soriano again.
Robert - April 9, 2009
It's becoming increasingly hard to root for the M's
I have been a fan of the Mariners ever since “The Kid” hit his first homerun with them. A lot of years. I have seen all the great players come and go to the big payday. So I have 1 question to the owners of the Mariners, not the CEO or the GM, THE ONWERS, "Why for the love of God would you let your money be squandered on the sh*t players that currently make up this roster?
chiefsR#1 - April 9, 2009
Because the people they put in charge of making the baseball decisions signed them to legally binding contracts.
Aaron Campeau - April 9, 2009
If they refused to pay players I imagine there would be a few feathers rustled
Nick S - April 9, 2009
This is sort of like asking "why evil exists in the world?"...
Decatur - April 9, 2009
*"why does evil exist in the world?"
Decatur - April 9, 2009
Not really it isn't.
Sec 108 - April 9, 2009
There are only four really awful contracts on the roster, and ownership had anything to do with exactly one of them
plus, if Kenji gets a dead cat bounce and plays to his peripherals this season, his contract isn’t even going to be that horrific.
Also, we get upset when ownership meddles with the baseball side of business – ownership’s job is to put competent people in a position to be successful, and when the last guy fucked up, he was gone to make way for GMZ.
seattlebruin - April 9, 2009
Russell Branyan is my favorite Mariner
JI - April 9, 2009
In my mind Russell Branyan is Richie Sexson for 10 million dollars cheaper and left handed.
Robert - April 9, 2009
Thus making him immensly more valuable.
Kirk - April 9, 2009
and there's the whole never gotten a chance and will strike out 220 times thing
JI - April 9, 2009
Ever since Cameron I've been afraid to hold k's against somebody.
Robert - April 9, 2009
That's rather insulting...
…if you think about it…
rtang - April 9, 2009
Glad I took a day off.
Yesterday was completely ruined after the Morrow meltdown, and I felt like shit after two 5am finishes. I couldn’t bare watching Jabba after Tuesday’s antics. I am glad Branyan went yard and that we got a few hits again.
Today is a massive day of sports for me: Mariners at 6PM and then City in the UEFA cup at 7.45… this could be potentially a great day [or a disaster].
EnglishMariner - April 9, 2009
City should win
the Mariners on the other hand… :S
marinerdan - April 9, 2009
Might be because the organization wasn't planning to contend this year.
Or that 2008 was so mentally damaging as a fan that it’s going to take winning critical games against hated teams to kindle that drive.
For me, this is more of a development year. Every year before this were attempts at “contending” that eventually failed. This feels like a start of something bigger. Hell, I actually found myself being OKAY with the first lost of the year.
This has been a pretty fun team to watch so far but for the first time in ages, virtually no one expects this team to do much. We know this team is projected to win somewhere in the high 70’s while most of the media thinks the team is even worse than that.
ThundaPC - April 9, 2009
Lowe's slider was looking pretty sick
If he can just locate that fastball a little better he could be a monster again.
OlSalty - April 9, 2009
I almost feel the same way.
I got worked up over the Morrow loss, but I more or less expected the Silva loss. Actually, I’m vaguely happy that the offense kept the team more or less in the game. I’m not really expecting this team to win, I’m just expecting some entertaining and occasionally somewhat competitive baseball.
Tonight, even in the midst of Silva sucking, Russell Branyan got my attention with that 2-run bomb to center. I watched the whole at-bat from work and saw it go from 0-2 to 3-2 to out of the park, and, well, I can’t think of a single time last year when that happened.
The record may suck at the end of the year, but there are at least some parts to this season that are going to be pretty cool to watch.
Two Rs and Two Ls - April 9, 2009
Wait til Ichiro comes back, Jeff.
Perhaps after he returns, you’ll be able to say that Ichiro " arouses the fire that’s dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul." Especially if he faces off against Dice-K.
But yeah, I haven’t really gotten all that excited about the M’s. I’m glad to see Felix and Bedard pitch well, and Morrow’s Meltdown™ was pretty bad, but at the same time, I find myself not caring that much this year.
urchman - April 9, 2009
Oh, if we could only harness such powerful sucking for energy purposes...
If Silva doesn’t pick up a W in his next two starts, he will have played a full 365 days getting ONE FUCKING WIN.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=silvaca01&t=p&year=2008
Craig341 - April 9, 2009
Oh June 28
A day of history
phil333 - April 9, 2009
As stupid as pitcher wins are, going an entire season without one while regularly starting would be a fairly impressive accomplishment
seattlebruin - April 9, 2009
It's awfully hard to get worked up over an April game any season, really
There’s 159 more of these to go. Sustaining that hang-on-every-pitch level of intensity for every one of them would probably kill you.
pdb - April 9, 2009
But thats what we do here at LL
phil333 - April 9, 2009
As you get older you do this less and less.
Ten years ago I was all emotion as a fan, but now not nearly as much. I am just way less emotional overall.
Sec 108 - April 9, 2009
This is why I fear aging.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
It isn't so bad.
Each stage in life should be savored for what it is. I would never want to change who I was and I would not change who I am. Except for my knee, but some things are out of our control.
Sec 108 - April 9, 2009
Sounds like denial to me.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
I want to win in my 20s dammit
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
They'd better get cracking!
ningwers - April 9, 2009
THIS is why I fear aging.
ningwers - April 9, 2009
Holla back on the call back joke.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
What what!
ningwers - April 9, 2009
In 3 months I am going to be ashamed of this comment
and delete it.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
You ain't no holla back dude
and now I share in your shame.
pdb - April 9, 2009
Were you ever sober in 06?
Robert - April 9, 2009
During the summer when I worked @ ESPN
During the school year?
…
Matthew - April 10, 2009
for me every April of the last five years has been a month of disillusionment
Every winter I spend reflecting on how bad the next year’s team will be, but once pitchers and catchers report I somehow begin to ignore the downside and by late March am convinced that if xy and z go right the team can contend. April is a tough month because it brings you down to earth, and it’s not usually until late May, when I’ve come to my senses, that I can enjoy watching this crappy team play. One of these years they will surprise me and April won’t suck, but this year is clearly not it.
Morrow’s game was a pretty severe kick in the pants, but certainly not the last one.
Bearskin Rugburn - April 9, 2009
Jakusaurus!!!
way to early nick name but I really liked what I saw out of him in his debut as well. That curve was pretty sick.
kinguw - April 9, 2009
Too Carl Everett.
Faux - April 10, 2009
On the bright side, Brian Fuentes looks grand
On the darker side, I’ve never been more desperate to get a positive game out of Washburn.
This team’s without one of its three best pitchers AND its ridiculously good catcher. We’ve gotta get a split here.
cwel87 - April 9, 2009
Against all reason I had let giving a shit build up again.
It’s still there, a little. Go out and get a businessman’s-special getaway W today and they’ve salvaged a 2-2 split out of a 4 game road series. Not so bad really. I have more
faithhope in Washburn than I do Silva to at least be an occasional innings-eater and keep us in some games.Ichiro isn’t here yet, Wak is just getting his feel for things, Bedard looks great early and the outfield D is a revelation. I’m still invested.
lemonverbena - April 9, 2009
This is the coolest roster construction project I've ever witnessed, maybe there's been some good ones other places.
I just don’t follow other teams close enough to know the difference. This is really exciting, I don’t even care about the win/loss record. This team’s been swirling around the bowl for 6 years (for me), a GM putting these players together is pretty refreshing.
I think I’ve decided they’re pretty much place holders and now I can just relax and watch some baseball. Except for the ones that are supposed to perform, so Joh/Silva/Batista can make me want to punch a wall. Maybe Lopez has a big year, I kind of like that kid.
Kermit. - April 9, 2009
I'm still feeling pretty good about this season
Felix was good, Bedard was amazing, and basically everyone except Morrow and Silva has played well.
Graham MacAree - April 9, 2009
My thoughts exactly.
Unlike last season the two losses weren’t a team-wide effort. It’s fun to go into a game knowing that we have a legitimate shot at winning.
ningwers - April 9, 2009
Yep.
The core of the team is good, and there’s a surprising amount of depth. If Morrow continues to have command issues, well, I’m a lot more confident in Lowe. If Silva continues to suck, I’m confident that this org won’t just throw him out on the mound due to his contract. If Branyan goes down, that sucks, but there are options not named Miguel Cairo, etc.
marc w - April 9, 2009
Jeff - pitchfx on Jak?
I checked fangraphs and there’s nothing on Jakubauskas, meaning only you and your special MLBAM data can help. I missed the game, so don’t know what he threw to get his swinging strikes/called strikes/balls in play. Little help?
(huge breaking curve? Cool. This is the problem – and the awesomeness – about pitchers who are still clearly works in progress. What you saw six months ago is sort of obsolete….)
marc w - April 9, 2009
What are you looking for?
89-91 fastball, ~80 changeup, curve around 75 with lots of downward movement and 14-15 inches of break. Got two swinging strikes on his fastball and two on his change.
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
How many of each did he throw
and did he get any swstr on the curve (from your comment, I’m guessing no)?
Oh, and just wondering if he threw the curve to rhb/lhb, or if he stuck w/the change….
marc w - April 9, 2009
No SwS on the curve
13 fastballs, 5 curves (4 to righties), 3 changeups.
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
Thanks Jeff
I’m assuming the 3 ch were to lefties?
marc w - April 9, 2009
2 of them were
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
Maybe it's still the damper from the Morrow, Clement and Aumont news?
Plus no Ichiro yet?
Maybe it’s the shitty hockey season that’s also resulted in a dampened sports winter?
Maybe it’s atrophy? Last season was over by about game 10. 2007 was over after August. It’s been about 20 months (and counting?) since the Mariners regularly played baseball games as possible contenders for wins. I, for one, think I might be suffering through the same detachment, but I am not even sure if I ever cared that much about games in April.
I am happy that baseball is back; I always forget how much I miss it when it’s gone, but so far it’s been more of a joy about baseball in general being back (Uehara trumps Wang? Cool. Porcello making his debut? Cool.) than any real impassioned Mariner rooting.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
The Mariners demise last year coincided with the release of GTA IV I noticed
Make of me knowing that what you will.
Mariner John - April 9, 2009
Probably not the hockey season since I still get amped up by every goal the Sens score
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
Yeah, me too since Clouston came aboard.
I’m grasping for emotional straws.
Maybe you’re not drinking enough.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
I can't drink and then write unless you want this place to go in a very different direction
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
What has the current direction brought you in terms of tangible rewards?
Matthew - April 9, 2009
You guys
;)
Jeff Sullivan - April 9, 2009
Just how tangible are we talking here?
ningwers - April 9, 2009
rawr?
Matthew - April 9, 2009
Its a bit of a combination.
For me the game threads have kinda made the Mariners so humorous that I actually enjoy them being futile more than merely average. I doubt its a longterm effect but I do think the game threads have given me a hunger for the extreme one way or the other as opposed to middling.
It doesnt help that my Michigan St lost their Championship game to my least favorite college team. At least they didnt cheat this time. But im kinda in a numb period for sports regardless.
Slica - April 9, 2009
Is Jakubauskas hot?
I missed the game. I mean of course I’ll get wet watching a curve like that, but is he easy on the eyes?
khmer luge - April 9, 2009
Depends how pedo you are.
Matthew - April 9, 2009
Agreed
At the moment I’m having a tough time keeping my attention fixed to the games. I think its mostly just that its April and I usually take about a month to start getting hooked each year. Its enjoyable but I just haven’t gotten emotionally invested in a lot of the new players yet and after last season I’m frustrated at a lot of the players we had last season.
Edgar for Pres - April 9, 2009
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