We're all pretty fed up with this offense after the last eight games and when I saw this article in my hopper I got some preliminary excitement. When I read the first two sentences I was ready to do one of those awkward fist pumps to myself in the office that would garner more weird stares if I didn't work where I do.
From LaRue
Don Wakamatsu promised a few changes - he doesn't have the roster to make many more - and he's delivered today.
Ronny Cedeno is the shortstop, and Yuniesky Betancourt is not.
Wladimir Balentien is the left fielder, and Endy Chavez is not.
And, before long, Rob Johnson may be starting more games at catcher than Kenji Johjima.
If Mike Sweeney's back was better, if he wasn't a health risk to play the field, he might be the first baseman in place of Russell Branyan.
What?
Okay first of all, thank freakin god on the Yuni news. As we've beaten into the ground, he's not improving but instead is actually getting actively worse. Ronny Cedeno is not likely to be a long term solution, but he does come with a good minor league pedigree and it is almost impossible to be worse. Benching Yuni for him should serve two goals; it makes the team better right now and hopefully it will send a message to Yuni that he is not going to be allowed to coast along any longer under this new regime.
I have been mildly impressed by Balentien's improvements this season both in the field and at the plate and have called for him to get more at bats. But here's the thing, Endy Chavez's defense is stellar and he's no worse with the bat than we thought he would be. We knew what he was and though we might have desperately wanted him to be something better after the first 20 games, he isn't. Also, Wlad's a righty and Endy is a lefty. They form a pretty natural platoon and allows you to get increased exposure for Balentien without sacrificing your outfield defense totally. I hope Wlad gets more ABs, both in left field and occasionally at DH over Sweeney, but lets not go nuts here, Endy is still valuable even with his anemic bat.
And now we get to the heartbreaking section. My brain processed "And, before long, Rob Johnson" and flipped out anticipating a reprieve from Jeff Clement's exile in Tacoma and an acknowledgment that Rob Johnson sucks right now. Instead, no. Just the opposite in fact. You want Rob Johnson to start more? I cannot think of a worse solution to this problem. Rob Johnson has been horrible. His wOBA is 30 points below Kenji's and his defense is demonstrably bad. What in the world would possess you to watch Rob Johnson play this year and decide, that man deserves a starting job?
I hope this last piece is just LaRue speculation because, again, what? Branyan has been our most productive hitter. I'm all for Mike Sweeney not getting shat on like he tends to in the comments here, because he's been okay, but starting him over Branyan? You cannot even complain about Branyan against LHP this year; he has an .870 OPS against them.
0 recs | 107 comments
Who the hell did Clement piss off, anyway?
Why does he not even warrant a passing glance at the MLB level at catcher? Rob Johnson is…not good.
pdb - May 13, 2009
Wakamatsu apparently.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Huh.
Great news about Cedeno, but that Clement thing really is baffling.
royalcurve - May 13, 2009
New day, same shit.
Phil Hatzenbuehler - May 13, 2009
More like
New day, new shit.
Fin - May 13, 2009
FUCK OFF YUNI YOU PIECE OF SHIT
YOU WILL NOT BE MISSED YOU LARD-ARSED RETARD.
EnglishMariner - May 13, 2009
If you watch the shots of the dugout during the game.
You’ll see Johnson laughing it up with everybody on the team.
I think management and the pitchers love this guy.
I would hope management would ignore these type of factors (pitchers like throwing to him, good clubhouse guy, works hard, etc).. and take a look at the numbers which show that he’s not a major league ballplayer.
I’m all for Balentien getting more playing time. Endy should be the fourth outfielder as long as Wlad continues to show growth. I’m all for rewarding guys who are producing and I know Wak was very impressed with that opposite field double Wlad hit the other day.
As for Yuni.. I think everyone is in agreement that Cedeno should be the starter, even though he isnt too good either
Rudy4three - May 13, 2009
The Rob Johnson line screams LaRue bias to me.
I’m not saying I expect Clement up soon, but having read him for years he always seems to add information that is nothing more than his own speculation.
Very happy to see Cedeno in there again. Hopefully he gets a few games in a row this time.
Sec 108 - May 13, 2009
The latter two lines both read that way to me.
But it os worth preparing for.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
I read both lines as conjecture, too.
Let’s pray we’re right.
Teej - May 13, 2009
But yes, the fact that Johnson is still on the team and Clement isn't gives us every right to be a little worried.
Teej - May 13, 2009
True enough.
Sec 108 - May 13, 2009
Eh.
I like the Balentien move. I love the Cedeno move. I don’t mind the Rob Johnson move.
But WHAT??? Why would you bench Branyan? Where is the logic in that? He’s hit 4x as many homers as Sweeney….
.Taylor - May 13, 2009
If you don't mind the Johnson move
then you don’t understand key concepts like hitting.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Or fielding.
Slurvey - May 13, 2009
Or Baseball
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
Or life
Fin - May 13, 2009
How much better is Kenji, then? I'm genuinely curious.
.Taylor - May 13, 2009
ALSO HOLY SHIT ROB FREAKING JOHNSON IS STILL AT THE BIG CLUB - AND IS BEING REWARDED?!
I CAN ONLY ASSUME WE ARE TRYING TO MANUFACTURE SOME KIND OF TRADE BECAUSE THIS MAKES NO SENSE.
I WISH GMZ HAD AN EMAIL ADDRESS RIGHT NOW SO I COULD ASK HIM WTF HE IS THINKING.
EnglishMariner - May 13, 2009
Hmmm.....
The idea in my head right now is either the worst or best idea ever.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
DO IT. I'D IMPRESS HIM SO MUCH HE'S GIVE ME FREE TICKETS OR SOMETHING.
EnglishMariner - May 13, 2009
And free round trip from England?
Fin - May 13, 2009
That would be nice.
EnglishMariner - May 13, 2009
WWRD?
Robert - May 13, 2009
I'll wait until I actually see Johnson playing everyday, this sounds like speculation by LaRue.
MFAN - May 13, 2009
Sorry I am having trouble expressing myself properly:
My argument is that Johnson should play every day …. in AAA. Or an other org. Clement needs to be our catcher. And I don’t care how many ITK’s claim it will never happen and we should give up: the guy still owns a catchers mitt, can still squat: let’s get him in Seattle.
EnglishMariner - May 13, 2009
Adam Moore should play every day in AAA.
Mariner John - May 13, 2009
Yes (well most every day), and Travis Scott should have been in AA last year.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Bweeeeee?
Graham MacAree - May 13, 2009
Woooooooeeehhhhhahhhhhnooooo!?
Goose - May 13, 2009
note the verb tenses
With Cedeño, Betancourt, Balentien, and Chavez LaRue uses “is”.
With Johnson and Sweeney he uses “may”. If he knew for certain that those changes were pending, as a good writer he would use “will be”. That he uses “may” indicates the last two sentences are LaRue speculative.
Steve Nelson - May 13, 2009
Yeah the Branyan and Johnson ones look like complete speculation
gregrabble - May 13, 2009
I hope they're speculation because I love Branyan.
He is also a much better hitter than Sweeney, with an OPS of .133 better.
Kirk - May 13, 2009
I agree.
But we can’t get too happy. Look what happened last time.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Also, for the sake of your brain cells, do not read the comments on LaRue's article.
Just… don’t.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Prentice Redman in CF?
waldo rojas - May 13, 2009
"I still say our 2 catchers should be Burke & Johnson."
Wow.
gregrabble - May 13, 2009
I saw the first one and thought the same thing.
Sec 108 - May 13, 2009
Excellent advice.
royalcurve - May 13, 2009
"Re closer: hope for Chad Cordura's return to form later this month."
Since when is Dave Henderson commenting on LaRue’s blog?
BrianL - May 13, 2009
My favorite Hendu-ism:
Rilly Boomkist
Phil Hatzenbuehler - May 13, 2009
Rob Johnson is the new Willie Boom-Boom Dynamite...
… Except WFB is a better player than Rob Johnson.
PositivePaul - May 13, 2009
Wow, that's something I thought I'd never see
WFB better than somebody else in the majors
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
Conveniently on the Mariners, too.
Fin - May 13, 2009
No kidding
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
A new day.
A new way.
waldo rojas - May 13, 2009
Regarding Branyan,
Maybe he means Sweeney playing first and Branyan playing DH? Does that make any sense?
Not having Branyan hit would make no sense, other than the slump in the past week, he has been our best hitter.
ARock - May 13, 2009
No, that doesn't make any sense.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Branyan's moblility is better than anything you're going to get from Sweeney
Sweeney moves around the infield like he’s wearing cement shoes
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
Want to see some more reports come in on this.
Otherwise, for certain:
Cedeno over Yuni = Good; Not much more to say about that
Wlad over Chavez = Fair; I’m okay if this is just for shaking things up for a day or to give Chavez a bit more rest. Might even consider Chavez for Gutz every once in a while to rest Gutz.
Speculation(?):
Johnson over Johjima = Very Bad; Replacing a potential right-handed bat with a zero power right-handed bat just exacerbates the current problem with offense Hope this one isn’t true.
Mike Sweeney over Branyan = Bad; Should be done strictly to give Branyan a break. Otherwise, he was the one actually doing his job and carrying the offense.
The Cedeno move is the only one out of this list that makes sense until we find a decent SS. Otherwise, the rest I’m only okay if the result is just to shake things up or give players breaks.
ThundaPC - May 13, 2009
A .221 wOBA? It's Rob Johnson mothafuckas.
31% k rate? Still Rob Johnson mothafuckas.
.664 wild pitches + passed balls a game? It’s RJ, shawty.
35.7% infield fly ball rate? Oh yeah.
I will go crazy if he gets more playing time.
abender20 - May 13, 2009
Wait his wOBA cannot possibly be .221
that’s like a pitcher’s wOBA
seattlebruin - May 13, 2009
That's a -6 win hitter over the course of a season
seattlebruin - May 13, 2009
It was .152 last year.
Improvement!
Phil Hatzenbuehler - May 13, 2009
WE CAN BUILD ON THIS
seattlebruin - May 13, 2009
In retrospect, this should have been pretty obvious from the getgo.
His 2006 and 2007 AAA wOBAs were .258 and .311.
abender20 - May 13, 2009
I'm pretty sure LaRue just really doesn't like Russell Branyan
Jeff Sullivan - May 13, 2009
It would take a monumental idiot to rob Branyan of at bats for the sake of anyone else on the team.
abender20 - May 13, 2009
If I were Larry Larue, I too, would be intimated by actual talent.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
And Carlos Silva.
ThundaPC - May 13, 2009
And Carlos Silva batting for Branyan?
Oh wait, thats even too stupid for Bavasi to do.
ARock - May 13, 2009
Don't put it past him
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
He seems to dislike a lot of good things.
Teej - May 13, 2009
My thoughts.
Cedeno over Yuni = Awesome
Wlad over Chavez = Fine
Sweeney over Branyan = Iffy
Johnson over Joh = WTF
Heydude - May 13, 2009
Sweeney over Branyan is pretty stupid.
BrianL - May 13, 2009
That's why I went with iffy.
Depends if it’s a permanent move, and what the reasoning behind it. I’d still prefer Russ in the lineup.
Heydude - May 13, 2009
OK
Yes, Endy Chavez has produced value for the team – he’s been 4 runs above average, and that’s really cool. But Wlad’s added 5 runs in much less time. Yes, the argument about handedness is a concern, but it’s not like the alternative is cutting Chavez… he’d just play less often. I think this is a fine move considering the M’s problems scoring runs.
Rob Johnson. Hmmm.
Look, I actually think there’s an argument to be made for playing him more than Johjima. The issue isn’t Johnson versus average, it’s Johnson versus Johjima, who appears to be 100% done as a major league hitter.
Would it be better to have Clement here? Yes, and I have no idea why the org seems so dead-set against that, but here we are. IF the team doesn’t want to consider giving Clement more MLB starts at C, then the only question is the horrific Johjima/Johnson dichotomy.
The difference in hitting – while not tiny – may close over time (Johnson’s 0-8 against LHP so far). Again, these are marginal things and we’re still talking about starting a guy who if everything goes right might make it up to a .280-.290 wOBA. Johnson may get a few more walks, while Johjima may get more XBHs? Who knows- but Johjima’s last 500 PAs have been absolutely dreadful.
Still, I think the real reason Wak might do this is that pitchers have about a 3.5 FIP with Johnson behind the plate and around a 5.2 w/Johjima. Dave Cameron (and others) will rightly point out that the samples are small, that selection bias/park effects may be at play, etc. cERA has never proven to be predictive. I just don’t know what to make of the vastly superior K/BB/HR stuff with Johnson. Odds are it’s a fluke, but that’s why Wak (may) be making this move.
The Branyan thing is just weird.
marc w - May 13, 2009
I'm still about 100 times more confident with Johjima at the plate than Johnson
gregrabble - May 13, 2009
Johjima has 30 more points of wOBA over Rob Johnson this season.
How does that translate into done as a Major League hitter for Johjima and Rob Johnson’s line doesn’t?
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Because Johjima's at .274 this year
and was at .272 last year. Remarkably consistent.
Last year, Johnson’s MLE was an OPS of around .700, with proportionally more of that coming from walks. Thus, it’s not ridiculous to think Johnson might improve on his current line.
I’m not simply comparing Johnson’s 60 PAs to Kenji’s previous 53. I’m comparing Johnson’s last 500 to Kenji’s last 500.
(To be clear, that MLE plus any expected ‘improvement’ puts Johnson waaaaay below average).
marc w - May 13, 2009
Kenji also had a .233 BABIP last year despite a line drive rate over 20%
And looking at projection systems, Rob Johnson is no better than Kenji Johjima there either. They’re about equal in fact. Couple that with Johjima’s depressed BABIP last year, his better skills at the broad array of defensive duties and his contract and there’s just no logical comprehensive argument to be made for Rob Johnson starting over Kenji Johjima.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Not absolutely sure about that. The ZiPS ROS projections
Have Johnson edging Johjima .291 to .289. That feels about right to me – they’re neck and neck, maybe a slight lean to Johnson, and they both absolutely suck. The point is the argument that Johjima is clearly the better hitter now doesn’t work. If you think Johjima’s a bit better, that’s cool, but the total delta in bRAA over the rest of the season can’t be more than… what, 5?
Johjima’s better at measurable defensive things (though it’d be interesting to see Johnson’s CS% over time), but Johnson’s got the weird FIP advantage. Massive fluke, selection bias, I don’t know. I certainly wouldn’t mind Johnson developing a reputation as a guy pitchers absolutely love throwing to, however.
marc w - May 13, 2009
And that's the best case for Johnson. That's if you believe Johjima doesn't bounce back and that Johnson's surge in Triple-A last year will sustain.
Then they end up as roughly equal hitters with Johnson’s nebulous cERA argument against Johjima’s demonstrable numbers.
That’s not a good argument.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Think of it this way:
Everyone on LL is 100% behind a move to replace a hitter whose current wOBA is .270 and whose projected ROS wOBA is .299 and whose career UZR/150 is -5.8 with a guy whose career wOBA is .274, whose projected ROS wOBA is .294, and whose career UZR/150 is -6.8. I love this move.
We’re talking about bad hitters who aren’t good defensively. At SS, we’re behind it because of Cedeno’s AAA numbers, Yuni’s defensive trend and because we’re sick of Yuni. At C, we’d do it because of Johnson’s trend in the minors, the fact that he seems to work well with the pitchers, and because Johjima’s age means it’s not certain that this is just some extended slump.
Is the cERA/cFIP thing a bad argument in isolation? Yeah. But adding everything together, he and Johjima are fairly close, and I’d give the tie to the youngster who may one day have a bit of trade value. Or rather, I understand if that’s where Wak goes. Personally, I think it’s an irrelevant discussion, but I’m preaching to the choir.
marc w - May 13, 2009
I know exactly why a move to Johnson would be justified. I'm saying it's still wrong.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Ok.
I was just quibbling with this: “there’s just no logical comprehensive argument to be made for Rob Johnson starting over Kenji Johjima.”
I think there IS one, it’s just not one that’s going to be persuasive to everyone. It depends on each person’s weighting of various variables.
marc w - May 13, 2009
Meh. LaRue's just stirring the "poo..."
PositivePaul - May 13, 2009
Two of the moves confirmed
Ichiro RF
Jose Lopez 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. DH
Adrian Beltre 3B
Russell Branyan 1B
Wladimir Balentien LF
Kenji Johjima C
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Ronny Cedeno SS
ThundaPC - May 13, 2009
The two smart moves.
Jed MC - May 13, 2009
At least my Cedeno jersey purchase will not be in vain
Graham MacAree - May 13, 2009
Like the Clement jersey?
Unless Matt Clement comes out of retirement.
Fin - May 13, 2009
He wouldn't wear a single digit number
BrettJMiller - May 13, 2009
Ok Ronny, let's not royally screw up your opportunity this time.
Goose - May 13, 2009
Amen
Graham MacAree - May 13, 2009
Man I was just reminded of the Springsteen song One Step Up.
“One step up and two steps back.”
Mariners are making some progress I guess you could say.
Slurvey - May 13, 2009
I was reminded of a Paula Abdul song.
I’m not sure what that says about me as a person.
Mariner John - May 13, 2009
I had thought this organization wasn't that high on Balentien
Interesting to see him getting continued chances to prove his value.
Ezzra - May 13, 2009
So, with Yuni being benched
can a trade be too far off? It is certain he will not increase his value riding the pine.
jimmylauderdale - May 13, 2009
Yes. A trade could be far off.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
Yuni for Andre Ethier!
hell, Yuni for Willie, straight up
seattlebruin - May 13, 2009
The Dodgers surely wouldn't mind parting with one of their best hitters in exchange for the opposite of Furcal.
abender20 - May 13, 2009
Ugh
Oh well. Teams should know what he is at this point and whether they like what he is or not I guess is already largely determined.
jimmylauderdale - May 13, 2009
Who the fuck would want that fucking waste of atoms?
It’s not even like he is FAT. He gets a seven figure salary. I hope he uses the pine time to learn how to read and communicate with people who are not fellow retards. Maybe then he will learn from the teachings of his coaches.
EnglishMariner - May 13, 2009
By definition ...
… any trade of Yuni would be too far off.
Steve Nelson - May 13, 2009
Hard to trade a man who isn't valued.
Then again, Bill Bavasi still has a job, so hope springs eternal!
Omerta - May 13, 2009
Yuni isn't the type of player that is in high demand
A guy who used to be a starter, but has been reduced to the bench in favor of a replacement level player. I can imagine that many teams aren’t really looking for a young ‘has-been’. Trading him right now would be in our interest, but not in the interest of any (logical) team right now. It would be very hard to get rid of him for anything more than a set of bats and a washing machine
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
Teams are always looking for guys who they think need a change of scenery
That’s why we have Cedeno, after all.
marc w - May 13, 2009
Yeah, but Cedeno wasn't as underperforming and overpaid as is the case with Yuni
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
Actually, he was
Cedeno had nearly 600 PAs for the Cubs in 2006 and put up a wOBA of .259. His career line is now .274, or exactly where Kenji Johjima’s is this year. Yuni’s 2008 – the year he gave away nearly 13 runs on defense – had him ‘earn’ 0.3 wins over replacement. In Cedeno’s one year of full-time play, he was 1.5 wins below replacement.
Betancourt’s contract isn’t great right now, but both of them are horrible ‘values’ at the moment, but that doesn’t mean another team wouldn’t trade for one or the other.
marc w - May 13, 2009
What i'm getting at though is that teams will bite on one or the other characteristic
Most teams can settle with underperforming if they aren’t having to pay much, and overpaid if they are getting a moderate investment in what they are putting into the player. However, if you have both characteristics in the same player simulateously, that spells trouble, and most teams will not want anything to do with that
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
Teams will ALWAYS want young-ish players with talent who are underperforming.
Is Yuni’s salary unattractive right now? Sure, but it’s not Johjima-level crippling. Besides, scouting reports from several years ago still rave about him. Plenty of teams would trade for him if the price was right.
Scott Olsen is young-ish, has a reputation for being a world-class asshole, had a FIP over 5 in 2007/08, makes nearly $3 million this year, and was acquired by one of the cheapest teams in pro sports in a trade (the Nats).
marc w - May 13, 2009
Not to get overly analytical here, but let's break this down...
Both these statments use “is” which is used as a solid statement of fact.
“May be” is the polar opposite from concrete. So far Wak has been straight forward about his moves; they’ve been “is” moves like the first two. Ex. Silva had to pitch good or he’d get yanked; he pitched bad and got yanked.
This statement is chalk-full of unclear language. And really, do you think Wak specifically said this statement? Doesn’t it seem odd that he’d throw the only power hitter under the bus, especially as a new manger who is trying to establish a connectivity with his players?
The final two statements seem more like a columnist’s speculation than anything else, just on linguistics alone.
SethGrandpa - May 13, 2009
Yes, this has been discussed.
Matthew - May 13, 2009
One issue I have with all of this is that there is no sense ot time given by LaRue.
“Wakamatsu promised changes” and the lineup TODAY is different. Has anyone read anything that would lead them to believe that the Yuni / Ronny swap is at all permanent?
abender20 - May 13, 2009
Sadly no.
Sec 108 - May 13, 2009
I would think that right now shortstop is a position that will be given to the guy who looks better in warmups
Fuzz - May 13, 2009
I meant more along the lines of: Yuni gets days off now and then.
If LaRue just took the Wakamatsu open ended and saw a Yuni day off and a Balentien start…
abender20 - May 13, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.