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Lookout Landing

16-19, Game Notes

Today's hockey games were good.

  • We could spend all night trying to figure out what's wrong with Brandon Morrow and we'd probably get a thousand different theories. Honestly, though, I think it's really quite simple. At the moment, he's a one-pitch pitcher who doesn't have command of his fastball. What more needs to be said? Contributing to both issues is the fact that he's missed a lot of time already and never got a Spring Training, and contributing to the first issue is the fact that he was never handled in such a way that encouraged secondary pitch development. So we're left with what we have, and until he starts locating his fastball the way he did a year ago and mixing in a few other pitches, he's going to run into trouble. There's no reason for hitters to sit on anything but straight gas, and bad things happen when you can't put that gas where you want.

    The most important thing he needs to do in order to get back in the saddle is figure out how to spot his fastball. When that happens, he'll be in decent shape. However, he'll also need to start mixing in some quality offspeed stuff. Not a whole lot, but just enough solid pitches to keep the hitter honest. We've seen Morrow try to break it off from time to time this year, but it hasn't worked and it's clear that nobody trusts his ability to throw a good bender when it matters right now, which makes it a tough thing to do as a closer. I can only wonder what ringing up Hamilton last night with the curve would've done for Morrow's confidence. But anyway, the offspeed thing is a work in progress, and until we see him offer a couple good breakers and changeups a game, he's likely to be uncomfortable to watch.

    Chris Davis, by the way, has the lowest contact rate of any regular in baseball. If ever there were a good time for Morrow to take something off of his heater, that was it. Instead he played right into Davis' hands, going to the same spot with the same pitch four consecutive times.

    Morrowdavis_medium

    Johnson and Morrow wanted to make Davis chase the high heat. However, he didn't chase either of the first two attempts, meaning that the battery either had to try a new approach or brave bringing the heat a little lower to make the pitches more enticing. They made the wrong choice. Lower high heat = heat at the belt = gosh darnit. 

  • There was a lot of worry early on that Felix might've been injured, because PITCHf/x was picking up most of his fastballs between 89-92. Being that he's a guy who spends the majority of his time in the mid-90s, that was uncharacteristic and wildly alarming. For those of you who might still be concerned, I have good news: it wasn't so much a Felix problem as it was a PITCHf/x problem. Felix, Harrison, Aardsma, Morrow - they were all being clocked a few ticks below where they usually sit, and when you're faced with a situation in which either the PITCHf/x system is screwing up or four different pitchers are working below their normal velocities, you have to assume the former.

    I don't know why this happens, but it does. It's even happened to Felix before, last May in New York. His fastball in that game was 92.3mph, two marks below his season average. Today he came in around 92 as well. As insane as people were going during the early innings, then, it was just a PITCHf/x mistake, and rest assured, there's nothing to worry about. Felix is as fine as he's ever been.

  • Not only is Felix healthy - he also pitched well, too, and against a team with a history of beating him up. He allowed just six baserunnings in seven shutout innings, he missed 16 bats, and he gave Hank Blalock fits, striking him out swinging three times, twice with a runner in scoring position. Blalock only saw six fastballs out of 14 pitches. There was also a key at bat against Elvis Andrus in the seventh, where Andrus came up with two down and men on the corners and promptly saw four straight breaking balls before getting jammed by a fastball. This was an excellent start, and it seems that Felix may finally be learning his craft, which can only be considered good news. For us.

    "A couple years ago I was a thrower, not a pitcher. Now I am a pitcher. I located all of my pitches today. I don't want to throw 97 in the middle. I just want to go at the corners and throw my two seamers."
    At last, our boy may be growing up before our eyes.

  • You can be as mad at Morrow as you want to be for effectively giving our season the ol' Tanya Harding. Keep in mind, though, that this heavily right-handed lineup managed all of two runs and five hits off of the mediocre left-handed Matt Harrison. Just because Morrow blew the lead doesn't mean he deserves to shoulder all the blame, because Felix was the only guy keeping this from being another all-around pathetic effort.

Jakubauskas, Olson, and Vargas to face Boston this weekend. None of those three pitchers were expected to see any kind of rotation time in 2009. It's the middle of May.

0 recs  |  112 comments

Comments

Following the Mariners is becoming harmful to my health.

I’m looking for something less self destructive. Cocaine comes to mind. Thoughts?

I wouldn't know...

But I know who would…

I bet you're talking about Josh Hamilton
Really? You heard too?!
Maybe the guys at LSB haven't heard about this yet...
Watch hockey.

The playoffs are producing good games as if it were a bodily function. Holy crap Boston-Carolina was intense…the right team won. Cam Ward is incredible.

As for the Mariners…I use this site to keep updated and the M’s are not bad enough yet to read some really good jokes in on here…thus theyre sorta boring.

Hockey playoffs are always good

This year is no exception. Crosby-Ovechkin, Cam Ward being a beast, Hiller for Anaheim, three game sevens (two of which were awesomely competitive). Jump on the hockey train

I find it very difficult to follow hockey without a hometown team.
I think that makes it easier because every game becomes interesting.

I consider the Capitals my team because I lived in D.C. for a couple of years, but I definitely do not have an emotional connection to them like I do the Mariners. These playoffs have been incredible to watch, though.

Would there be a market for hockey in Seattle?

There is frequent talk here in Vancouver about whether it could support a team or not. Canucks fans would love it, I think, because it would be an awesome rivalry. Very easy to travel to road games.

Yes
Well shit...move the Panthers to Seattle then!
Coyotes are closer to being a competitive team,

and they’re arguing for bankruptcy with Bettman right now.

But no, Toronto needs a second team.

Yes.

A thousand times, yes.

That overtime was everything that's right about hockey

Carolina’s home crowds, by the way, have really impressed me.

That Felix quote makes me all kinds of happy.

Really, at this point, if we’re going to suck again, the least the baseball gods can do is give us a Felix that is learning and consistently getting better.

And make sure we sign him to a long contract
If misery loves company,

I’ve got good news, the Royals are rapidly crashing back to earth (18-17), Florida started the season 11-1, then whoops (17-18), and our good buddies the Padres already went from first to worst (13-22).

This weekend should be fun. I have yet to determine how, however.

Someone asked which ones would fall...

…at the beginning of the year regarding the early division leaders. Pretty obvious that the answer is everyone.

Texas is starting to remind me of their late 90s team. Minus the drugs. Well, sorta.

Meanwhile, Toronto still sits on top of the brutalist division in baseball.

But you are right, for the most part, regression has happened, and the teams are going back to where they should’ve been. I don’t understand why we haven’t heard anything from Z though. You would think a sweep in Texas after 2 2-game sweeps and an almost sweep would have him making some kind of roster changes.

Didnt Bavasi go into the lockeroom and yell at players?

Z doesn’t strike me as that kind of guy. Hopefully he doesn’t panic and do something stupid.

Well, I hope Z doesn't do something like that.

Maybe something more formal, like DFA of Rob Johnson and a promotion of Jeff Clement.

Or perhaps trading Yuni for some brand-new bats...

Bats to be swung by different hitters who will swing them later in counts.

I don't like Rob Johnson, but he has options
Clement can't play catcher, though

So he’s no help there right now. DH is his only spot right now and I’m not sure he could fit in the club there. Clement must have boned Bavasi and Z’s daughters. That handsome devil

So Dreamy...

How could you say no to this face?
It's even tougher to say no since we lack lefties in our lineup...
Still...

There’s no place for him. Like it or not Griffey is the LH DH. Branyan is a LH 1B. And Clement can’t catch with his knee. Basically he’s stuck in purgatory til someone gets hurt or his knee magically heals and even then the organization doesn’t like his future as the catcher

I understand this.
Still makes me sad
Only because I won't be able to stare into those beautiful man eyes
I would say the same thing...

But I would feel like I’m somehow being unfaithful to Russell Branyan.

You know what they say...

It’s not cheating if they’re in different org levels

How important is catcher defense?

I mean, besides the fact that it is supposed to be, why is it? They have way less fielding opportunities than other positions. If you look at this article, which provides a cursory rating for catcher defense, based on Tango’s WOWY method, the projected spread between the best and the worst defenders is only about 15 runs.

Even if Clement is worse that the worst catcher in the majors, Salty, he would cost the M’s less than 10 runs over a full season. The positional adjustment would make up for that, and if he hits his CHONE projection of a .338 wOBA, he would be roughly a 2.5 WAR player per 600 plate appearances. That’s like 7 Rob Johnsons!!!

Well it's a moot point for now because his knee hurts

so for the time being it is not an exaggeration used in place of saying that his defense is poor to say that Clement cannot catch.

Pretty easilky

I don’t need usc peoples i n my linesup

I sense taht I've miossepelled words here
drunk posting?
It happens.
Which part of "I am `100% totally sober wasn't ckear the first time?"
Although you may not have intended it, I think "Brutalist" may describe the A.L. East pretty well.

As in Brutalist architecture.

That isn't regression

Regression would have put us at about 3 games over .500 after the 15-10 start, not 3 under

So its just the offense and bullpen under achieving.
Don't forget Pittsburgh lead the division for a little while.

And are now 14-20.

FTFY

the Padres already went from first to worst tied for worst (13-22).

Woooo D-Backs!

It looks like you have not one, but two crappy teams to follow this year!
I fucking HATE May
I hate October as well.

It is the playoffs, and we are never in them.

So with Felix's quotes to Drayer,

are you saying it was a combo of PITCH/fx being wonky and Felix slowing it up? It sounded to me like more of the latter. If Felix was dialing it down on purpose, and PITCH/fx was off by a few MPH as well, wouldn’t we have expected Felix’s MPH readings to be even lower than they were?

Felix ended up about 2mph off his usual readings which was consistent with all other pitchers in that game.
Felix's average fastball was 92.1

Add ~2 ticks to account for the PITCHf/x stuff and he’s up to 94.1, which is around where he throws his two-seamer (his four-seamer is in the 96-98 range).

Could you quit with the Hockey crap?

We get it – you like the way their sport is put together, and they have some great young talent.

This is a Mariners blog though and I don’t see many other SBN editors posting praise for other sports. It’s not funny or anything either.

Are you pulling an ASUBoyd here?
Sorry, came off harsher than I intended. But come on.

Go Mariners.

Whatever, forget it.

If everyone here loves the public fellating of hockey on an M’s blog – fine. Such homerism for these blog writers is embarassing though.

You all realize they can do something wrong and still be good writers, and great contributions to the Mariners community ?

If you are asking if I mind one opening line stating that the day's hockey games were good...

Followed by numerous paragraphs of top-notch baseball analysis…

I’m going to go with no.

All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again.
Are you pretending this is like the Tampa Bay situation last year or...?
Yes.
Wow. It looks like I'm the ass.

I wasn’t around for that joke. My apologies.

It wasn't that funny, so you are forgiven.
You're stealing my bit.
=

“If this is anyone but Steve Allen you’re stealing my bit.”

It was one sentence.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/4/27/461839/you-were-warned#5509348

I was taking you seriously.

Epic fail on my part.

I know

I wanted to see where you would go.

I have commitment issues.
I love this meme
This is a Mariners blog and not a meme blog
wait nevermind
Who said this originally?
Every now and then

McGrath gets off a fine crack:

“It’s funny listening to Mariners fans recite the tools they believe necessary in a closer. The more I hear a yearning for a tough guy with a short memory, a mean streak and a frightening temper, the more I recall Bobby Ayala, the least popular relief pitcher in the history of the franchise”"

Someone needs to make a gif, that says Morrow In.

Season Over.

Yes

Not to LLLJ, but life has been ridiculously busy lately, and I regret being able to catch very few games over the past two weeks, and having almost no time to check LL. That said, I somehow caught all of yesterday’s game, and as infuriating as the 9th inning was (and who didn’t see that coming?), Felix’s quote about being a pitcher rather than a thrower almost makes everything all better. That might be the best thing I’ve heard all season.

I've been busy, too.

And I couldn’t have picked a better time.

Experimenting with compression and color reduction...

Hello antialiasing
He looks shimmery
Shimmering with despair.
That's what happen when vampires leave the PNW
I was waiting for this joke
I can't believe I was the only one who was upset that the entire point of that movie was

lol seattle gets rain amirite rofl

The vampires should have needed coffee instead of blood.

The conflict of the movie could have been that the caffeine made it so they couldn’t fall asleep when the sun came up, but then they realized it was always rainy in Seattle so it never became an issue and they all lived mope-ily ever after while listening to grunge and wearing flannel.

But they never needed sleep anyways
I actually never saw the movie or read the book.

Everything I needed to know about Twilight I learned on Lookout Landing.

Forks
I could have sworn it was Port Angeles
Hey bud, you may be new here, but chatspeak is like totally not allowed on LL.

You should read the comment guidelines before posting.

Great. Now every comment you make I am going to read it with a valley girl lilt in my head.
My brain turns all of Jeff's comments into mumbles.
You weren't already?
His face is moving as if he got a skin graft from a Don Hertzfeldt cartoon
You need to make one where he comes running out of the bullpen toting a gas can.
I don't photoshop my gifs
I'm all natural

awwww yeahhhh

I don't even know how.

I fail at performance enhancement.

You are not alone.
I'm even naturaler
I barely even trim my frames.
Wait, WTF????

From the same Drayer post:

Brandon seems to be living and dying with the fastball and today, Johnson said they didn’t have much of a choice.

It was a situation where he couldn’t use his off speed pitches because we were trying to get ahead and put pressure on them. He missed a couple up to Blalock and then made a pretty good pitch to Murphy who got the head to it. He is close, but he needs to try to stay down in the zone, that’s where the outs are for a guy that throws that hard. That ball at the end of the game if it is just a little bit down is a ground ball.”

(Emphasis mine)

So, in other words, Rob Johnson is saying that Morrow needed to establish his fastball against a fastball-devouring team.

Go the hell away, Rob Johnson!!!!

But the guy on the radio says they need to call up Burke because Joh kept calling fastballs!!

Oh, wait.

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