If you were wondering about the 16 straight fastballs [Felix] threw to start the game, I asked Johjima about why he wanted to do that and he told me to go ask the pitcher. He tried to get him to throw the breaking ball but Felix was insisting on the fastball. Adair said that will be addressed.
I'm beginning to think the reason there's been a rift in the clubhouse between Ichiro and the rest of the Mariners is because Ichiro isn't retarded.
3 recs | 34 comments
Looks like Johjima isn't either.
We clearly just need more Japanese players.
Matthew - May 20, 2009
This makes sense.
I saw Felix shake Joh off a lot during that first inning, and every time he’d eventually nod, and there would be the fastball. Poor Joh, stupid Felix!
marinerdan - May 20, 2009
Fuckin' Felix.
russak - May 20, 2009
Time for an open letter to Felix Hernandez?
Crystal for DH - May 20, 2009
That ship has sailed
Jeff Sullivan - May 20, 2009
So The King's Chariot, then?
PositivePaul - May 20, 2009
Good, but needs Chris Farley as the bus driver.
Good, GREat, GRAND! NO YELLING ON THE BUS!!!
Jed MC - May 20, 2009
Silly - YUNI's driving the bus!!!
PositivePaul - May 21, 2009
Is that bus about to run over Kenji?
Brian Floyd - May 20, 2009
Rob Johnson
PositivePaul - May 21, 2009
My instincts:
It comes down to attitude. A few new faces won’t change these bad habits.
There’s a club within the club. Some of these fucking guys don’t care either way about winning or losing and will probably elevate their play once they are traded away.
They believe they are actually better than the team but the team itself is bringing them down.
I think the players I’m talking about don’t really want to be here and hope they get traded to a contender.
Their work ethic is shitty and they are disappointed with the hookers in Seattle.
This team needs to remove their cancers.
Oh shit, great awareness Yuni!!
Nevermind what I just wrote
Tony S - May 20, 2009
That cart before the horse attitude drives me batshit crazy as a fan.
See a guy make some adjustments and find some success, then they think the problem is solved and go right back to what they were doing.
Kermit. - May 20, 2009
This was very funny…it gives me a lot of confidence to know that Joh isn’t the one causing the problems. At least this way someone can smack Felix around and start to address the issue.
mwalter - May 20, 2009
subject line
seattlecougar - May 20, 2009
Does the fastball apply less pressure to his arm?
Ever since he had that scare a couple years back (or whenever that was).. I’ve always been worried that he’s just throwing the fastball because it’s easier on his arm.
I could be totally off, as I don’t know what kind of pressure the offspeed stuff puts on his arm. All I know is he doesn’t throw that hellacious stuff he was throwing back in Boston a couple seasons ago.
And I’ve assumed it’s because he’s taking is easy on his arm just throwing fastballs
Rudy4three - May 20, 2009
Arm Slot
If I remember right, he’s made quite a few arm slot adjustments in order to reduce stress on his arm after the injuries he’s had. Jeff chronicled them with gifs last season. I don’t think it has anything to do with taking his arm easy, but more trying to be a headstrong young pitcher that wants to overpower people.
Who knows though.
Brian Floyd - May 20, 2009
It's the close-ups
Pitchers look so in command when they’re shaking off the sign.
strudel - May 21, 2009
Even if Johjima kept calling for the change?
PascoJoe - May 21, 2009
Hey I'M retarded you bag of assholes
Bearskin Rugburn - May 21, 2009
Game Theory
I’ve been curious about something for awhile, but I haven’t got around to asking. Do any of the major league ballclubs employ game theorists to help them develop pitch selection strategies? With pitch_fx data we can calculate the average value of each type of pitch thrown by a given pitcher. A competent game theorist should be able to find the optimum equilibrium strategies (i.e., pitch selection) for a particular pitcher (even against different types of hitters or in different situations, such as when the defense is looking for a double play).
Clearly, the Mariners aren’t doing this. Is anyone else? (My first post, by the way.)
ty540 - May 21, 2009
Without knowing this for a fact
I would almost certainly say no, there’s no game theorists in MLB. I could be wrong, but it doesn’t seem like the acceptance of advanced metrics has come quite that far yet. Will it ever? Maybe. Should it? I don’t know – the human still has to execute the pitch, after all, and all the most sound game theory strategy in the world can’t compensate for the fact that Pitcher X doesn’t have his stuff on a given night, which could throw a strategy like that off the rails. That’s a lot of thinkin’ for a dumb ballplayer.
Welcome to LL!
pdb - May 21, 2009
Adding complexity
Actually, a sufficiently advanced algorithm should be able to make adjustments to compensate for those sorts of variables. For example, if a pitcher can’t locate his curve, the value of throwing a curve drops significantly; but this change in value can be taken into account.
Thanks for the welcome.
ty540 - May 21, 2009
I forgot to add...
We’ve observed firsthand that certain ballplayers shouldn’t be allowed to determine their own strategies. Perhaps the pitcher should not be allowed to select his own pitches. Pitch selection could come from the dugout. Alternatively, it wouldn’t be too difficult to instruct the catcher to call x% fastballs, y% changeups, etc.
ty540 - May 21, 2009
You're making the largeish assumption
that front offices think in terms of advanced algorithmic thinking when plotting game strategy, though, and I don’t think they do. Most game strategy discussions tend towards the discrete – keep the FB away from this guy, throw this guy offspeed junk on his hands, etc – and adjustments on the fly tend more towards what the pitcher is comfortable throwing as a backup rather than what his second most optimal pitch might be (those can be but aren’t always the same thing).
Plus you’re asking a catcher to keep a running percentage of pitch type in his head, which given all the other stuff that a catcher has to keep straight may be one ask too many.
I don’t mean to be intentionally contrarian, I just don’t think that baseball has embraced advanced mathematics as in-game strategy quite yet. Maybe someday, when the more advanced stats become more commonplace in every FO…
pdb - May 21, 2009
I didn't mean to suggest that
front offices DO think this way. I was asking whether any of them do.
Doesn’t it seem like the best way to maximize a pitcher’s talent?
ty540 - May 21, 2009
There are a lot of variables at play here.
For game theory to work you have to have a good measure of the relative rewards of each strategy (pitch) which might vary significantly due to the following:
Ball / strike count
Current score
Current inning / outs
Men on base
Current batter’s strength’s & weaknesses
Other factors I’m forgetting
For example
First pitch of the game a fastball might be the best option.
7th inning, 1 out, bases loaded, tie game, you might want to throw more breaking stuff to get a ground ball.
8th inning, 6 run lead, bullpen spent with a double header the next day, you may want to just pump fastballs to get contact and spare the bully.
There’s also the danger of developing a predictable pitching pattern that hitters can sit on. Lots to think about it, but I like the suggestion.
I think the best usage of this would be to figure out what if there are any good predictors of what a hitter will swing at based on past history. Like does a hitter chase a slider out of the zone if he sees a slider in the zone on the previous pitch? If he sees fastballs in his first at bat, is he more likely to swing at fastballs in his 2nd? Does anything prior to the day of the game matter?
There are a lot of factors that go into pitch selection which make it hard to quantify them for game theory. I think you’d be better off attacking this by looking at the hitter and throwing combinations that are likely to succeed.
PDXTai - May 21, 2009
Wait by smart did you mean dumb?
Graham MacAree - May 21, 2009
Speaking from the athlete side of things...
I’m sure all of you know that at the Major League level, catchers usually call the games. Most of the time you want your smartest guy catching because he should know the situations and remembers (usually) what locations batters have a tough time hitting and where they crush the ball.
Overreliance on the fastball is what kills most pitchers, regardless of what other pitches you have. We’ve all seen what Felix’s curveball can do. It’s a good pitch. His changeup is questionable anymore, but it can be effective sometimes.
My point here is that as a pitcher, it’s not your job to go up there and think about what you think you should throw in any given situation. That’s the catchers job. The catcher calls the pitches for a reason. The pitcher is then going to throw that pitch. If it’s successful, then all is well in the world. If it gets crushed 400ft, then a good catcher will admit he called the wrong pitch. There are some pitchers on this staff that need to understand it’s not up to them as to what pitch they throw. If a pitcher is shaking off too many pitches, the catcher should call time, go slap the pitcher and remind him that he’s not being paid to think, he’s being paid to throw the damn ball.
Fuzz - May 21, 2009
Or at least check with why a pitcher isn't throwing a particular pitch...
Said pitcher could know that his X pitch isn’t working that night, and he doesn’t feel confident throwing it at all. A pitch thrown in under-confidence can do just as much damage as a pitch that might be expected, but well-commanded…
But, yeah, part of a catcher’s job is to know when to cockpunch his pitcher.
PositivePaul - May 21, 2009
"His changeup is questionable anymore, but it can be effective sometimes."
Actually his changeup is still his best pitch in terms of results
Graham MacAree - May 21, 2009
Even with a 4-5mph difference?
Fuzz - May 21, 2009
Yes
Graham MacAree - May 21, 2009
I know we talked about this before...
But maybe Felix needs to talk to Nolan Ryan. Or, better yet, Randy Johnson is coming to town this weekend. Maybe he should re-pay Seattle by talking to Felix. I know it didn’t work with Little Unit — but he was too hurt to apply what he ‘learned’ in the conversation.
But it HAS to work with Felix…
PositivePaul - May 21, 2009
I don't know if anybody remembers this but last year I blew up in a Felix GT, when everybody started piling on him.
I basically lost my shit, and went on and on about how most of the great pitchers have mentioned they stopped being a thrower and learned how to pitch at some point in their career. This was also shortly after I started logging into LL, so I didn’t know anyone at that point, and didn’t really ‘get’ LL. The statement last week by Felix were something I’d been hoping to hear for a long time, but his follow up comments this week… yeah.
I feel the need to apologize to any and all who’s feathers I may have ruffled in that GT.
Kermit. - May 21, 2009
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