Lookout Landing

For whatever it's worth, Jayson Stark mentioned him in his latest set of thoughts.

Then there’s a left-hander who is climbing everybody’s charts, Antonio Bastardo, who has a 50-9 strikeout-walk ratio between Double-A and Triple-A. The Phillies dangled Bastardo in July for Rockies reliever Brian Fuentes. But a year later, he is actually drawing some Johan Santana comparisons, and might have passed Carrasco as their No. 1 pitching prospect.

abender20 - May 28, 2009 reply

That's where I saw it...

They also have Drabek’s kid who is supposedly a legit pitching prospect.

The Phils have a lot of minor leaguers to potentially include in a trade for a starter. And with Brett Myers going on the DL, they may make a move sooner rather than later.

gustafm - May 28, 2009 reply

Antonio Bastardo just became my favorite name in baseball

johnbai - May 28, 2009 reply

There's an Alberto Bastardo too, if you prefer.

I talked with JY about this, but one of my new favorites is Deivis Goatache, a pitcher in the Pirates org.
Goat ache?

marc w - May 28, 2009 reply

And Bibens-Dirx is in the Independent Leagues :-(

But we do have Calix Crabbe!

PositivePaul - May 28, 2009 reply

I prefer to rhyme Goatache with mustache

pdb - May 28, 2009 reply

Olney just tossed McDonald as a potential name, should the Ms & Phils start to talk.

msb - May 28, 2009 reply

The Phillies are the team we want to trade with

There’s a bunch of good upper level prospects there and Ruben Amaro is an idiot.

davidcameron - May 28, 2009 reply

I know this is a little off topic and we don't need an outfielder

,but how is John Mayberry Jr. doing? he was with Spokane Indians after he was drafted and I saw him take Rafael Soriano yard when he did a rehab start for the Aqua Socks.

InSpokane - May 28, 2009 reply

And Amaro will be kind of desparate...

His starting pitching is starting to fall apart due to injuries and old age, his team is coming off a WS title but just slipped behind the Mets. That team is built to contend now and has a first year GM (who is an idiot). Add it all up and it’s sort of a perfect storm for a team that will overpay. Of course, they may end up overpaying for Peavy instead of Bedard.

gustafm - May 28, 2009 reply

YAY!

I am glad to hear there are a few old school/dumb GM’s left.

mark sobba - May 28, 2009 reply

I hear the Royals need a shortstop too....

OlSalty - May 28, 2009 reply

Please write nothing but overly positive statements

about Erik until after he is traded. Build that hype train, yo!

marinerdan - May 28, 2009 reply

Dave did a similar analysis

on Cliff Lee last year, at the beginning of his breakout season. His K-rate did come down towards the end of the year as his called-strike percentage regressed and his swinging-strike percentage remained below league-average, but he still managed to sustain his success by keeping his walks down.

Nadingo - May 28, 2009 reply

The case against trading Bedard

I’ve been wanting to ask this, and this seems to be the most on-point thread in which to ask it . Everybody seems to be taking it as given that there’s no way Bedard would re-sign with the Mariners, and in that context trading him for as much as we can makes perfect sense. But how sure are we that that’s true?

As I see it, the case for trading Bedard is that he won’t be back anyway, he’s performing well, and so we should maximize our return. Which, again, makes perfect sense. The sexy people have been making that case really well, especially Dave a few weeks ago.

But I haven’t really seen anybody making the case against trading him; and in my mind it’s a pretty good case. As I see it:

- really good teams consist of a foundation of several high-WAR players, surrounded by smart pickups that don’t cost very much

- the Mariners currently have quite a few complementary players but are lacking the core of high-WAR players both on the big-league team and in the farm system; so really the Mariners should be adding more players of Bedard’s caliber, not trading them away, especially since it’s more difficult to add high-WAR players than complementary players

- the return for Bedard is likely to be either one or several prospects; the odds are against any team surrendering prospects with a WAR ceiling as high as Bedard’s, and while Bedard is volatile, prospects bring a volatility of their own

- because Bedard is injury-prone, and the rest of the league sees him as injury-prone as well, Bedard may in fact be a good value for a high-WAR player if re-signed

- to restate that point in a different way, Bedard’s fragility will likely lower the likely return in trade; decrease his asking price after the season; and limit his options after the season, all of which point towards re-signing and away from trading

Trading Bedard makes sense if the team is sure he is unlikely to re-sign with Seattle at a price that makes sense, or if the package coming back to Seattle is compellingly strong, containing a player we think can reasonably be as good as, well, Erik Bedard. Should we believe these two things are true? If there’s a chance he could re-sign, and the trade return is made up of prospects likely to only turn into complementary players, I’m not sure I see the point.

Again, sorry if this is the wrong way or place to tackle this.

Chris Hafner - May 28, 2009 reply

I think most of us would like to re-sign Bedard.

But why take the chance this off-season and get nothing in return? If he wants to re-sign after we trade him, then he has the agency to do so.

The scariest scenario in my mind is Baltimore re-signing Bedard. That would just be devastating.

Wilder. - May 28, 2009 reply

Also, we can be trying to resign him as we are shopping to trade him, and only do so if he doesn't accept a contract.

As well as free agency, as you said, so all venues allow him to come back to Seattle somehow, even if we are trying to shop him.

CapSea - May 28, 2009 reply

And we would take him back in a second.

Not to rub salt, but there are quite a few of us who would love to sign Erik back to the O’s.

duck - May 28, 2009 reply

There are some good indications that Erik Bedard is not going to be keen to staying in Seattle

and trading him this summer does not preclude the Mariners from trying to re-sign him this winter.

There really isn’t a good case for not trading Bedard.

Are these indications top-secret insider information by chance?

Or are there quotes or articles that I can read to see that information myself?

d0nkey - May 28, 2009 reply

Erik Bedard is not going to come right out and say anything like that publicly.

Yeah, if he's uninterested in remaining in Seattle, it makes the whole thing moot

I just wasn’t sure how solid that is.

Both you and Wilder also make the point that trading him doesn’t preclude the Mariners from re-signing him – does that happen often, where a team will trade a player and re-sign him in free agency later in the year? I would think an incumbent team would have an advantage if that’s the goal. But then again I might be colored by the NBA, where the CBA gives some pretty substantial incentives for a player to re-sign with his current team.

Chris Hafner - May 28, 2009 reply

It doesn't happen often, but it's not unheard of.

Incumbent team has no advantages per the CBA.

We want him to try something.

So, what we really need is the nation's leader in strikeouts ...

472 in 308 innings

msb - May 28, 2009 reply

Interesting. Are there rules against pitching underhand in MLB. I just glanced through the rule book, but I did not read it detail.

InSpokane - May 28, 2009 reply

I do not believe there are

pdb - May 28, 2009 reply

Well forget Strasburg then.

InSpokane - May 28, 2009 reply

She can't be worst than Silva.

mark sobba - May 28, 2009 reply

But we need to keep Washburn away from her.

Slurvey - May 28, 2009 reply

Oh, no.

msb - May 28, 2009 reply

Whoa Brett Lawrie is like the younger sister that comes running up to the older sibling!

OK GMZ draft DAnielle Lawire make it happen!

Slurvey - May 28, 2009 reply

I wonder if a female could seriously break that gender barrier in baseball.

I mean, you read in headlines seldomly how a girl pitches a no hitter or a perfect game against a team full of little league boys. I know this seems kind of stupid, but I wonder if a woman could even compete on the same level as the boys in the major leagues.

Fin - May 28, 2009 reply

If anyone is going to break the gender barrier in baseball,

I have confidence it would be a female.

CapSea - May 29, 2009 reply

Erik Bedard is a courageous pioneer whose contributions to the sport will not soon be forgotten

Graham MacAree - May 29, 2009 reply

There's the possibility of a transgendered person.

.Taylor - May 29, 2009 reply

.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/5/27/891118/on-erik-bedards-strikeout-rate#16316442

Graham MacAree - May 29, 2009 reply

If it could happen any where, Seattle is the place to make it happen.

Speaking of which, I am going to blow a fuse if I hear one more Seattlite boasting about how "progressive" they are.

.Taylor - May 29, 2009 reply

Actually, this is borderline politics. I'll stop.

.Taylor - May 29, 2009 reply

I'm not being politcal, I'm just say'n the Trader Joes/Whole Foods crowd would be more open to the idea than say the Rangers crowd

Trader Joe's and Whole Foods are corporate entities.

Try Madison Market bub.

Actually don’t. Their produce and meat selection blow goats.

I shop at Piedmont Market in Oakland. Great little local store.

I tried one of their vegan brownies once.

Needless to say, it was one of the worst experiences of my entire life.

.Taylor - May 29, 2009 reply

SSS

pdb - May 29, 2009 reply

I maintain that vegan food is intrinsically terrible.

.Taylor - May 29, 2009 reply

I maintain that you haven't eaten good vegan food

I am no vegan – I’m making a beer-can chicken for dinner tonight – but vegan food doesn’t have to be terrible.

pdb - May 29, 2009 reply

Wrong!

List four different vegan dishes you find delicious. I will try them and get back to you.

.Taylor - May 29, 2009 reply

Beer, Chana saag, any form of dosa (actually most South Indian food works here)

Vegan food that is trying to emulate normal european food isn't great

but there’s tons of vegan Thai and Indian dishes that are delicious.

johnbai - May 29, 2009 reply

Exactly. No one is happy with Tofurkey, but food that is created as vegan food is wonderful.

I adore tofurkey

Just go to Araya's, Wayward Cafe or Squid and Ink and eat anything there.

I love everything about Madison Market except their produce and meat.

I live next door to Madison Market and eat lunch there almost every day.

johnbai - May 29, 2009 reply

I used to be progressive

but then I got rid of my car and didn’t find a need to keep my insurance.

Jesus.

Jeff Sullivan - May 29, 2009 reply

That's what I thought at first too, but it turns out that no, it wasn't Jesus.

Something is wrong with you today

Jeff Sullivan - May 29, 2009 reply

Thursdays always mess with my mental axis.

Today is Friday.

Is it?

How silly of me to confuse days like that.

After I typed I realized it was a joke

If only you knew how much of a joke it actually was.

I think she's a little too old for him anyway

EJO - May 28, 2009 reply

It would not be a ridiculous idea to have one of these pitchers be a reliever.

They can literally play every day and their arm location and pitch type would be a complete 180 on what the batters have seen all day. But I think right now the likelihood would be something like a lefty specialist or something that did not require many innings. At least until one of the pitchers throws >90.

CapSea - May 29, 2009 reply

Except that softball mounds are closer to the plate.

I once remember watching Jenny Finch completely dominate Luis Gonzalez on some sports show, where she pitched from softball distance. Move her back to a baseball mound and the equation changes.

Couldn't building arm strength change that probably?

Fin - May 29, 2009 reply

The mound is 60'-6" away in baseball

It’s at most 40’ away in adult fastpitch softball.

So being extremely unconservative, a 150% increase in velocity is required to give the same reaction time to a pitch

Graham MacAree - May 29, 2009 reply

You guys took a fun joke and made it far too serious.

I'm not sure that it's possible to generate much more velocity underhanded, especially given the amount of leverage you sacrifice by not throwing over the top.