Two Things

by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2009 11:02 AM PDT in Miscellaneous

It's looking like Brett Myers is going to need surgery on his hip, a procedure that could end his season. His absense would leave the Phillies with a rotation of Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, J.A. Happ, and someone from the system. This is a rotation, by the way, that as of this writing has been 33.4 runs below average, with a tRA of 5.95. Jack Zduriencik needs to get on the horn and see what they'll give for Erik Bedard. The Phillies are a perfect match - they have a need, they have pieces to trade, and their front office is headed by some questionable intellect - and with the Mariners having faded from contention, now's the time to strike. Waiting only gives Bedard a chance to reduce his value, and the Phillies a chance to find someone else.

Dave alluded to it this morning, but in case you haven't noticed, Michael Saunders has taken a big step forward in AAA this year. Not only has he bumped his OPS by 300 points, but he's improved his contact rate from 70% to 82%. It's the same kind of thing that makes me excited about Russell Branyan, and while Saunders has a smaller sample size of data, it still strikes me as being significant.

Saunders is never going to top the walk leaderboards, but with his improved contact, reasonable power, and defensive ability, he could be the new Randy Winn, and he doesn't turn 23 until November. Say hello to my new favorite prospect. If you weren't on the Saunders trolley before, you should probably think about getting on now before they run out of tickets.

0 recs | 105 comments

Comments

Saunders can throw, too

Just in case anyone wanted to take the Winn comparison too far. Although he’s not a borderline CF like Winn.

Graham MacAree - May 29, 2009 reply

I could compare him to Choo, but then that's just a blatant Dave ripoff

I also don’t know if Saunders is going to walk that much.

Jeff Sullivan - May 29, 2009 reply

Showing real LH power in Safeco Field will help with the walking

Graham MacAree - May 29, 2009 reply

Crap, so I can't go with Choo either?

Choo’s walk rate wasn’t always THAT much higher than Saunders. Choo was around 10/11% with occasional spikes up to 13% or so. Saunders was around 10-11% in the low minors, dropping to 9% now. Still, I could see him moving that up a bit, especially if his Ks keep dropping.
I wasn’t sold on his OF defense last year, but he’s won me over. He ended a game last Thursday by nailing a runner at home plate, and he’s made some fine plays both in the corners and in CF.

I’m still hoping for a Jason Bay-like power surge as he hits his mid-20s.

marc w - May 29, 2009 reply

The walk thing isn't huge

but Choo has improved in the Majors, and I’m not ready to predict that Saunders will do the same thing. He could, though. That’d be awesome. And if he turns into a 20-25 homer guy, then he’s likely to be all kinds of underrated.

Jeff Sullivan - May 29, 2009 reply

Yes, exactly -

both Bay/Choo/Winn were somewhat more limited in the minors, and it would’ve been tough to predict that they’d have the kinds of MLB careers that they’ve had.
Still, Saunders is much younger than Bay/Winn were at this level, and Saunders age 22 season may turn out a bit better than Choo’s age 22 season.
There’s also the fact that Saunders is just so much larger than Bay/Choo/Winn which makes me think he really could be a 25 HR guy.

marc w - May 29, 2009 reply

From your observations

does he look like a pull hitter or a spray hitter?

Jeff Sullivan - May 29, 2009 reply

A bit of both; he's a spray hitter in training.

He’s certainly capable of lining balls into both left/right gaps, but he’s got a lot more power when he pulls the ball (maybe not exactly a newsflash). You can see that he’s not a prototypical pull hitter, and as he gets a bit stronger, some of the line singles to left may start turning into doubles to left, and then hopefully HRs.

marc w - May 29, 2009 reply

So a Randy Winn with power in a corner OF position with plus range?

That would be pretty neat.

eponymous_coward - May 29, 2009 reply

Not in Safeco they won't

Graham MacAree - May 29, 2009 reply

True. But he'll play in Arlington/Anaheim fairly often.

marc w - May 29, 2009 reply

The only reason I'm not showing even more excitement over Saunders is that I want to keep people from going crazy

But seriously. He rocks.

Jeff Sullivan - May 29, 2009 reply

Bay/Choo/Winn

There’s a bit of a gradient there in terms of how exciting a player is and what they offer. But if Winn is Saunders’ downside then.. um, yes please.

Bearskin Rugburn - May 29, 2009 reply

Saunders is neat, but Carrera might be my favorite prospect because hahahaha, Mets.

Also, High Desert and all, and the strikeout/walk rates haven’t improved much, but it’s nice to see Alex Liddi do something at the plate.

Lookout Landing

Two Things

Comments

I hope Myers' hip gets infected and his leg has to be amputated.

Karma is a bitch.

It is beating Brett Myers in much the same way Brett Myers beat his wife.

Saunders can throw, too

I could compare him to Choo, but then that's just a blatant Dave ripoff

Showing real LH power in Safeco Field will help with the walking

Crap, so I can't go with Choo either?

The walk thing isn't huge

Yes, exactly -

From your observations

A bit of both; he's a spray hitter in training.

So a Randy Winn with power in a corner OF position with plus range?

Not in Safeco they won't

True. But he'll play in Arlington/Anaheim fairly often.

The only reason I'm not showing even more excitement over Saunders is that I want to keep people from going crazy

Bay/Choo/Winn

Saunders is neat, but Carrera might be my favorite prospect because hahahaha, Mets.

Something tells me a .435 BABIP isn't sustainable

That news will make a certain Dodger very unhappy.

Similar to that, but Carrera strikes out way more than Pierre right now

Any word on the whether he, like Pierre, runs like people are chasing him with butterfly nets?

He's also back on the DL.

What's he on the DL with?

Ankle sprain.

Ok, nothing serious then. Is that the minor league 7-day DL?

Yessir.

It's a little weird, because he just came off of it, then went back on.

Yeah, else I would be flipping out over him

Oh, you were talking about Carrera. Liddi's BABIP is unsustainable too (.423)

The walk improvement is weird

Isn't this just a case of Carrera's eye being better than the control in AA?

There's a reason those pitchers are in Double-A?

Well, he's never done this before, which is the thing

He had decent patience for a youngster

Yeah, never to this extent, but I was under the impression that he was highly regarded for his discipline before coming over here.

I wish we had pitch data for the lower minors

Yeah. Come on MiLB, get on that.

But 13% in rookie league

I was referring to Carrera

Sadly Denny Almonte has gone back to being Denny Almonte

(shocked face)

Jason Donald

There are a lot of players in that system I'd be happy about getting back

CNN/SI has Bedard on the front of its MLB section

Would John MacDonald be a bad aquisition? He's an excellent defensive shortstop.

The John McDonald with the lifetime .262 wOBA and the 1974 birthday?

He would fit in with the no-Latin program though...

We could always give Gutierrez an offseason angloplasty

Turns out angloplasty is an actual thing and not at all what I wanted it to be

There's always negroplasty!

Reverse of what Michael Jackson got.

He barely counts anyways. Ricky Iglesias is more latin than Gutierrez.

But he has an accent.

Ricky Iglesias is quite an obscure comparison

I'm pretty sure Matthew is just so un-hip that he got the name wrong

I fused Enrique and Ricky Martin in my mind.

Understandable. hey are pretty much the same dude

Yes I was pretty sure of that too

Way to fucking suck at links dipshit.

Why don't you shut the fuck up and start sucking my dick

New Fogel rocks

Agreed

I think we should ban Fogel and make him come back as Fogel Max

I don't think Fogel could pull off being any blacker than he already is.

LaFogelquana

You'd probably fuck that up as well.

White power!

Does The Pat Gillick Connection (tm) help or hurt the chances of a trade?

It's Ruben Amaro.

Dammit Lopez

This eliminates Yuni as well.

Like Philly needs a second baseman anyway.

Gillick is still an advisor for the Phillies front office

This still makes them eligible for the GIllick Curse.

And Ibanez was signed there too.

In addition

Clement doesn't really fit