Lookout Landing

Seattle: 15-10
Texas: 12-12

SUMMARY

It's hard to fathom that the Mariners rotation has been over 43 runs better than the Rangers' through 24-25 games. That's incredible. It's also incredible just how bad the entire Rangers' pitching staff has been. Their bullpen has a tRA+ of 55. The next worst in the league is Cleveland at -8.9 runs and a 79 tRA+.

Meanwhile, our rotation gains another 2.4 runs over average whilst trotting out the back three hurlers. That's pleasant and bumps us up to the top of the league. The bullpen holds steady, inching up a tenth of a run and staying in 11th place. The offense gains 2 points in wOBA and a run on the league average which gets us up over the Diamondbacks and into 28th place.

The weekly update of UZR places the Mariners back up top of the league in overall UZR. Good weeks from Lopez and Ichiro along with continued success from Gutierrez propel the Mariners upwards despite another 0.8 runs lost to Yuni. The Mariners also lead the league in Range, at 16.1 runs above average, almost double that of the second place Rays who are at 8.4.

Granted, again, it's early. It's very early for defensive metrics (one look at the individual leader board [Raul Ibanez has the 2nd best UZR in baseball] tells you that), but as always, when the numbers jive with the scouting and the past, that raises their reliability a lot.

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs. Kevin Millwood
Game 2: Erik Bedard* vs. Vicente Padilla

Kevin Millwood has been a rare bright spot for the Rangers in the rotation this season. His past two seasons have been dismal by any standards. One thing to keep an eye on if Millwood reaches 180 innings pitched this season, his $12 million becomes guaranteed next season. If not, the Rangers may elect to void the final year of his contract. I don't know if they would exercise that option or not, obviously a lot depends on how the rest of 2009 plays out, but from a Seattle perspective, it's always better for our division rivals to have fewer options at their disposal. Then again, it would also be better for us for Millwood to pitch poorly.

Millwood has long been a pitcher who has looked average to mediocre by ERA, but well above average by FIP. One reason is his batted ball profile, which tRA reveals. He gives up a lot of line drives. FIP will not account for that, but line drives are horrible and it's a main reason why Millwood's tRAs look so pedestrian. This year the ground balls are up a tad and his walks have been down a little which is why he's back above the league average marker. Other than that, same old Millwood.

Vicente Padilla is in the final guaranteed year of his mistake-filled three-year, $33.75M contract. The Rangers hold a $10.25M option on him for next year which they would be well advised to decline. After his first year in Texas, which begot him his extension and which tRA and tRA* would have informed you was a bad idea at the time, Padilla has posted tRA+s of 83 and 88 since. This year has been even worse to start as his ground ball rate has slipped and his line drive rate skyrocketed. He is also throwing more pitches out of the zone and missing fewer bats. In short, he's been getting rocked and rightly so.

Meanwhile, Bedard looks to bounce back from his worst start this season against the team he faced the first time ever pitching in a Mariner uniform in games that count.

I don't like falling into the trap of saying how every game is a big game or some other cliche like that, but these feel like two big games. For one, we're coming off an emotional series win over Oakland which saw us looking like we should have been swept. So in one sense we're almost playing with house money, but one lesson I learned back in my gambling days was it didn't matter with whose money you were playing with, you wanted to win. Secondly, while I consider Texas to be the weakest threat to us in the division, they're still there. We have our big two going and a mini-sweep gives us a minimum of a four game lead in the division over everybody.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Hale's 25th Anniversary Ale
Hale's Ales. Seattle, WA

I have been wanting to feature a Hale's ale for awhile now but unfortunately the two I like best are this one and their winter scotch ale, which is now decidedly out of season. I thought it was too far gone for this one as well, but I actually saw some bottles of it left while out beer shopping this weekend so that's as flimsy of an excuse as I need. Hale's makes some good quality stuff all around and if you can find some of their 25th lest, I recommend it. It's classified as an abbey dubbel and I felt it had some marzen-like qualities to it.